UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Vympel]

I'm not surprised. The British are wasting obscene amounts of money on a carrier with no planes while their army has gone four decades without a decent rifle.

The USAF has been trying to get rid of the A-10 for almost 30 years -not because there's anything wrong with it (the Army and Marines love it), but because it's not a bottomless trough for retiring Air Force officers to bury their snouts in. Maybe the Pentagon could boost production by ordering FIFTH GENERATION artillery shells made of solid platinum with a caviar and truffle-butter warhead. Oh wait, most caviar comes from Russia or Iran...

I've long suspected that one goal of these proxy wars is getting former Warsaw Pact countries to unload as much Cold War (esp. Soviet-era) equipment as possible. All those guns and vehicles will need to be replaced sooner or later and operators are standing by to take those orders!

What's really funny is the production rates for vehicles in the west is still absolutely abysmal. All the stuff given to Ukraine is not going to be replaced for years. There's simply no capacity.

[Zaune]

What's the rush? Once this war burns itself out I doubt Russia's going to be in a hurry to try again any time soon, and even if for some unfathomable reason China decided they'd rather have us as vassals than export customers there's an inconvenient amount of continent in the way of attacking us directly. Who's that leave as a credible military threat, the Americans?

[Vympel]

What's the rush? Once this war burns itself out I doubt Russia's going to be in a hurry to try again any time soon, and even if for some unfathomable reason China decided they'd rather have us as vassals than export customers there's an inconvenient amount of continent in the way of attacking us directly. Who's that leave as a credible military threat, the Americans?

There really isn't a rush, no*. Despite doom-mongering about a Russian attack on NATO there isn't any risk of that because they have no capacity to do so, and no clear reason to do it even if they did, and neither side is keen on inciting a general war and potential nuclear conflagration.

But its still bad, because it leaves multiple European militaries in a state of complete unreadiness in general, drives up costs due to pent up demand and invites unwelcome competition from foreign suppliers who can pick up the slack (chiefly South Korea).

*I'm assuming that the current unwillingness to produce new equipment for Ukraine continues, because if they were willing the severe capacity shortage would make that largely unfeasible anyway, depending on what weapons system you're talking about.

[LaCroix]

Mild shock...
Navalni has died while taking a walk at the camp.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ja ... 024-02-16/

One loose end tied. A message sent. The two other loose ends will most likely face charges (or accidents) after the election.

[Ralin]

Navalny participated in Russian nationalist marches in the 2000s. Calls for restrictions on immigration and criticism over what some viewed as his overly nationalist views prompted his expulsion from the liberal Yabloko opposition party in 2007.

You know, I'm not familiar with the guy's career but I feel like this language is probably glossing over some heinous shit.

[LadyTevar]

Mild shock...
Navalni has died while taking a walk at the camp.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ja ... 024-02-16/

One loose end tied. A message sent. The two other loose ends will most likely face charges (or accidents) after the election.

Putin was really worried that he'd get some votes, I guess. *shakes head*
There were no "Natural Causes" here.

[Gandalf]

You know, I'm not familiar with the guy's career but I feel like this language is probably glossing over some heinous shit.

Running with Neo Nazis, likening Muslims to cockroaches he wanted to exterminate, the usual far right bullshit.

[Elfdart]

What's the rush? Once this war burns itself out I doubt Russia's going to be in a hurry to try again any time soon, and even if for some unfathomable reason China decided they'd rather have us as vassals than export customers there's an inconvenient amount of continent in the way of attacking us directly. Who's that leave as a credible military threat, the Americans?

Haven't you heard? We're being INVADED by ruthless mobs of Third Worlders who want to...

...do menial labor for low wages.
Only FIFTH GENERATION barbed wire can keep the barbarian hordes at bay before the suburban Karens can hire them as nannies and housekeepers!

Uncle Sam could scuttle half the Navy, scrap half the Air Force and reduce the Army and Marines by half and there'd still be no realistic threat to bravery's home and freedom's land (and don't even mention our fruited plane since homophobes will assume you're claiming the middle of the country watches the Tony Awards). Unlike the Russians, the Empire makes it a point NOT to pick fights with well-armed opponents. You McFauls, Pompeos and Boltons like to huff and puff but that's they're good for.

[Elfdart]

Mild shock...
Navalni has died while taking a walk at the camp.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ja ... 024-02-16/

One loose end tied. A message sent. The two other loose ends will most likely face charges (or accidents) after the election.

Putin was really worried that he'd get some votes, I guess. *shakes head*
There were no "Natural Causes" here.

If Jill Stein were to "meet with an accident" does mean Biden was worried she'd cause him to lose an election? Because that's about the same level of support Navalny had in Russia: 2% give or take. If Putin had him whacked (and let's be clear: sending a middle-aged man to an Arctic prison camp for thirty years is already having him whacked, slowly.) it's for a much more obvious reason: The guy was a nuisance and Putin did it because he could.

[vakundok]

Mild shock...
Navalni has died while taking a walk at the camp.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ja ... 024-02-16/

One loose end tied. A message sent. The two other loose ends will most likely face charges (or accidents) after the election.

Let's admit, it would have been weird, if he had fallen out from the guard tower, wouldn't it?
It could be a simple accident, like going for a walk right after a shower without dressing up, or something. It may even become now a problem for Putin how to dial down his support in the election to 92%.

[Vympel]

Avdiivka is over

https://au.news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-arm ... 22902.html

CNN staff, CNN
Sat, 17 February 2024 at 1:01 pm AEDT·2-min read

Ukrainian Armed Forces have announced they are withdrawing from the key town of Avdiivka.

The town, to the northwest of Donetsk city, has seen some of the heaviest fighting of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and Moscow had intensified its attacks on the area in recent weeks.

“Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines,” Ukraine’s military chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said in a Facebook post on Friday.

He said Ukrainian soldiers “did everything possible to destroy the best Russian military units and inflicted significant losses on the enemy in terms of manpower and equipment” in the area.

Ukraine is “taking measures to stabilize the situation and maintain positions,” he said, adding “the life of military personnel is of the highest value.”

The decision comes just days after Syrskyi and Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov visited the front lines in Avdiivka, with the military chief pledging to send reinforcements to “prevent the enemy from advancing deeper into our territory.”

Ukrainian forces battling to hold the town described “hellish” conditions and the enemy “coming from all sides” as Russia sent wave after wave of ground assaults by armored vehicles and soldiers.

Russia too had suffered immense losses in its offensive on Avdiivka, but Moscow appears to have calculated its numerical advantage made those losses worth it to take the symbolic victory.

Lying just a few kilometers north of Donetsk airport, Avdiivka was captured by Russian forces in early 2015 after months of periodically heavy fighting. It has been firmly in Moscow’s crosshairs ever since.

Its capture would have added value to Moscow, with Russia’s presidential election just a few weeks away.

Like clockwork, we're back to the 'symbolic victory' cope, but no, Avdiivka was a key lynchpin on the Ukrainian front line (and a major irritant for Donetsk) and this was acknowledged a while ago. The Washington Post isn't engaging in this 'symbolic' horseshit either:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ky-russia/

Located just 15 miles outside the occupied regional capital of Donetsk, Avdiivka has more strategic value for Russia than Bakhmut. Pushing Ukrainians back from Donetsk city and its residential areas, which Russian President Vladimir Putin claims Ukrainian forces shell regularly, could boost the spirits of Moscow’s forces as the grinding war nears its two-year mark.

“It all comes down to logistics,” said Serhiy, 41, an infantry platoon commander with Ukraine’s 53rd Brigade fighting in the area. “Roads, interchanges, everything: A lot of logistics is tied up in the streets of Avdiivka.”

The Ukrainians should've pulled out many weeks ago. There was no prospect of holding it and they weren't waiting for anything to change while they did.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it does.
...
The article mentions the Russian presidential election as if taking Avdiivka is going to have any effect on the result, Putin winning is a forgone conclusion. Doubly so thanks to Alexei Navalny conveniently coming down with a case of lead poisoning...
...
Both Queen Elizabeth Class carriers breaking down is a national embarrassment, it's basically saying to the world that the UK has forgotten how to properly build warships

German and Ukrainian leaders sign security pact, condemn Navalny's death

BERLIN (Reuters) -Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy secured new military aid and signed a long-term security pact with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin on Friday, in a meeting that was jolted by the news of the death of jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

Zelenskiy is visiting Germany and France in a tour to drum up military assistance at a critical point in the war against Russia, with Ukrainian troops trying to hold back Russian forces closing in on the eastern town of Avdiivka.

The security pact, which will last for 10 years, commits Germany to supporting Ukraine with military assistance and hitting Russia with sanctions and export controls, and ensuring that Russian assets remain frozen.

Berlin has also prepared another immediate support package worth 1.13 billion euros ($1.22 billion) that is focused on air defence and artillery.

"The document's importance can not be overestimated. It makes clear that Germany will continue to support an independent Ukraine in its defence against the Russian invasion," Scholz said.

"And if in the future there is another Russian aggression we have agreed detailed diplomatic, economic and military support," he added.

Zelenskiy said the aid was critical as military supplies from other partners had decreased while Russia had an advantage in artillery on the front line.

News of Navalny's death in Russian prison broke just before the two leaders were due to speak. Navalny had spent time in Germany recuperating from poisoning with a military-grade nerve agent in Siberia before he headed back to Russia.

"I met Navalny here in Berlin when he was trying to recover from the poisoning attack in Germany and also talked to him about the great courage it takes to return to the country," Scholz said.

"And he has probably now paid for this courage with his life," he said.

Zelenskiy landed in Germany as the war with Russia nears its third year. It marks his first foreign trip since he replaced his popular army chief and reshuffled his military command.

Germany became the second Ukrainian ally after Britain to sign a bilateral security deal ensuring support until Ukraine reaches its goal of joining the NATO military alliance. France is poised to become the third when Zelenskiy travels there later on Friday.

"A new security architecture for Ukraine, as well as new opportunities. We are making every effort to end the war as soon as possible on fair Ukrainian terms and ensure a lasting peace," Zelenskiy said on social media as he landed in Germany.

Kyiv says the security arrangements with allies would in no way replace its strategic goal of joining NATO

Zelenskiy was also expected to give a speech at the Munich security conference on Saturday. Several bilateral meetings on the sidelines are planned, including with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris.

[Dominus Atheos]

Like clockwork, we're back to the 'symbolic victory' cope, but no, Avdiivka was a key lynchpin on the Ukrainian front line (and a major irritant for Donetsk) and this was acknowledged a while ago.

Your side said the same thing about Bakhmut, but Russia haven't moved an inch out of there since taking it. What towns do you expect Russia to take after the "key lynchpin" Avdiivka falls and when?

Speaking of Bakhmut, it took your side 9 months of fighting to take it, and that was a little less than 9 months ago. At the rate they're going, 1 medium city every 9 months, they should have all of Ukraine conquered in only 50 years. I guess Zelenskyy better sue for peace now or he won't have a country left.

[Gandalf]

Russia don't need to overrun the country, though. They just need to wait for the Ukrainian army to collapse.

[Zaune]

Russia don't need to overrun the country, though. They just need to wait for the Ukrainian army to collapse.

Of course the same applies to the Ukrainians, and I think my bet is on Russia's collapsing first because the Ukrainians have vastly more to lose.

[Ralin]

Russia don't need to overrun the country, though. They just need to wait for the Ukrainian army to collapse.

Of course the same applies to the Ukrainians, and I think my bet is on Russia's collapsing first because the Ukrainians have vastly more to lose.

Russia has a lot more money and industry though. And is for the most part not being bombed.

[Vympel]

You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it does.

What word are you talking about?

...
The article mentions the Russian presidential election-

I don't see what that has to do with what I'm saying.

Your side-

That you're analysing this as if I'm on the Russian's "side" for stating the obvious - that Ukraine is losing - is probably Exhibit A in why so many people can't think about the extremely obvious way this war is going rationally.

said the same thing about Bakhmut, but Russia haven't moved an inch out of there since taking it.

This is such a profoundly silly argument. Quick questions:

1. If Bakhmut was so meaningless, why did the Ukrainians hold on there for so long dying en masse to hold it? Was it in service against winning an attritional war against the enemy with way more manpower, materiel and resources than them?

2. What happened in between Bakhmut's fall and now? Anything significant? Like Ukraine's much hyped counteroffensive being commenced and then defeated after achieving nothing?

Were they any articles, perhaps, in the aftermath of that talking about how many Western analysts complained that the Ukrainians wasted huge resources trying and failing to defend Bakhmut, which directly impacted the counteroffensive?

What towns do you expect Russia to take after the "key lynchpin" Avdiivka falls and when?

Speaking of Bakhmut, it took your side 9 months of fighting to take it, and that was a little less than 9 months ago. At the rate they're going, 1 medium city every 9 months, they should have all of Ukraine conquered in only 50 years.

And this is even sillier. 9 months ago, the Ukrainians were just starting off their counteroffensive and were flush with resources. Which are all gone now. Including - most importantly - men.

If you think the way you think the war went at one predetermined point is the way its always going to go, you're simply deluding yourself. And there's sadly a lot of that going around.

I guess Zelenskyy better sue for peace now or he won't have a country left.

So what's your theory of Ukrainian victory? What's going to happen to turn the trajectory of this war around? Anything real, or are we just gonna clap for tinkerbell until the part of the movie happens when King Theoden blows his horn?

What specific outcome are Ukrainian troops being pressganged and slaughtered at the front for, at this point? Victory? What's that look like? How's it going to be acheived? What's the plan??

Of course the same applies to the Ukrainians, and I think my bet is on Russia's collapsing first because the Ukrainians have vastly more to lose.

It is deeply unserious to think that you're going to overcome having less of every kind of resource (and most importantly - troops) because of something as ephemeral as "having more to lose". That's an insane thing to base a theory of victory on.

If Ukrainians felt as positive about the war at this point, there probably wouldn't be a need to institute a deeply unpopular law to try to mobilise an additional 500,000 men, which is moving at snail's pace through the Rada because of how politically toxic it is.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Thing is Vymple, the west has a long decolonial history of giving up long wars against people "with more to loose". Come to think of it, Russia didn't do any better in Afghanistan either. It's an insane thing to base a theory of victory on, but it would be deeply unserious to neglect the accrued experience of it.

And accrued experience matters here. Russia's recent behaviour means Ukraine will only ask for a ceasefire once they have no other option to continue. They know peace now means renewed invasion in five years. They may see a stalemated low intensity war as less costly then a short peace and destruction of everything they took loans to rebuild.

Ukraine is currently loosing the war, very very slowly in terms of land, and slowly in terms of men. They're adopting ultra dispersed formation in response to the shelling, which minimises losses, but precludes any kind of counter offence.
Us support is in doubt until the election in march, and European support is not being delivered at a serious rate, but it could be. The UK alone has a GDP 3x that of Russia. It would need some legal unlocking and restructuring but throw a decent multiple of current resources at the supply across Europe and the ramp rate would be eye watering. Russia really isn't that rich and it's in a war where the defender only needs Russia to cut losses and go home. It's unserious to ignore that.


Assuming a stable oil market, Russia can afford to keep this up for at least five years before their budget implodes, and could probably do at least one or two more big mobilisations before st Petersburg riots (a guess). They're definitely waiting on the US election outcome before doing anything like that though.
Is a long term low intensity war a useful outcome for Russia? No. For the obligarchs? Maybe.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it does.

What word are you talking about?

Cope. You say it a lot.

That you're analysing this as if I'm on the Russian's "side" for stating the obvious - that Ukraine is losing - is probably Exhibit A in why so many people can't think about the extremely obvious way this war is going rationally.

It might have something to do with your username and title being named after the special forces of one of the sides involved in this war. Just a guess

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Intelligence chief determines who was behind poisoning, promises retaliation in Russia

Ukrainian military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, told journalists from the French news outlet Liberation that he was able to determine who was responsible for his wife's poisoning and promised "retaliatory actions on Russian territory."

"My wife is feeling better," Budanov said. "Since I did not drink poison, it is difficult for me to say whether it was an attempt to murder me. But I have already survived many assassination attempts and will probably survive many more. I think that in the near future you will see retaliatory actions on Russian territory, and everyone will understand this."

Late last year, Ukraine's military intelligence announced that Budanov's wife, Marianna Budanova, was hospitalized due to heavy metal poisoning.
Russia has reportedly made more than 10 attempts on Kyrylo Budanov's life.

When asked if he knew who was responsible for the poisoning, Budanov replied 'Of course I do!'

Budanov served in the Donbas war in 2014, reportedly suffering several injuries during the hostilities.

He briefly became the deputy director of Ukraine's foreign intelligence agency in 2020 before he was appointed to lead the military intelligence the same year by President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Budanov was promoted to the rank of lieutenant-general in September.

The military intelligence agency is directly subordinate to the country's defense ministry. The agency describes its chief tasks as gathering intelligence, identifying external threats to Ukraine, and combatting terrorism and foreign intelligence activities.

While much of its activities remain classified, the military intelligence confirmed responsibility for several attacks against the Russian rear during the full-scale war.

US Army hunts for explosives to meet increased munitions output goals

As the U.S. Army seeks to drastically ramp up its 155mm munitions production to 100,000 a month by the end of 2025, the biggest concern for the service’s acquisition chief is being able to secure enough explosives to fill them.

“You have to produce enough explosives – either IMX-104 or TNT – to fill that many shells that fast and that production capacity does not exist in the United States by itself,” Doug Bush said during a Feb. 5 Center for Strategic and International Studies event in Washington. “We’re having to go overseas to allies. Luckily, we have many, [that are] highly capable.”

Prior to the war in Ukraine, the U.S. could build about 14,400 of the artillery shells per month. But as Ukrainian forces burn through the ammunition for howitzers sent to the country, the U.S. has taken a wide variety of steps to increase the speed and capacity of 155mm munitions production.

Bush said at CSIS that each 155mm shell contains 22 pounds of explosives. If the U.S. ramps up to 100,000 munitions a month, it would need to produce 26.4 million pounds of explosives, also known as “energetics,” per year to keep up.

The Army awarded $1.5 billion in contracts to nine companies in the fall of 2023 to companies in the U.S., Canada, India and Poland to boost global production of 155mm artillery rounds. The contracts included procuring 14.2 million pounds of bulk energetics, consisting of TNT and IMX-104 explosive.

Increasing production is also riding on Congress approving a pending supplemental budget request which aims to support Ukraine and Israel. The supplemental includes $600 million that would triple the amount of IMX-104 explosive that is made at Holsten Army Ammunition Plant in Tennessee. The plant produces roughly five million pounds a year with a plan to increase to 13 million pounds.

Another $93 million would upgrade facilities to re-establish M6 propellant production at Radford Army Ammunition Plant in southwest Virginia. That propellant is used to shoot the shells, but is no longer in production in the U.S.

An additional $14 million would cover the construction and recommissioning of a black powder – an explosive combination of sulphur, carbon and potassium nitrate – production line with a company called Goex in Minden, Louisiana.

Taking on TNT
The Army would also use $650 million to design and construct a domestic TNT production facility, which will likely be at Radford Army Ammunition Plant, Bush has said previously.

Currently there is no TNT production in the U.S. and the supplies come from allies such as Australia and India.

Poland is a major supplier, but with every country ramping up production to support Ukraine and meet their own demands, Bush noted late last year, the U.S. will need to onshore TNT production.

The Army issued a request for information in the fall of 2023 on Sam.gov for the design, construction and commissioning of a facility capable of producing five million pounds of TNT per year. Responses from industry are due Feb. 17.

The service is aiming to complete construction and open the facility no later than 48 months after awarding a contract. The RFI notes that the government is assessing multiple sites for the facility.

Hopefully that 4 year timescale is an exaggeration, otherwise it'll be ready for the next war, not this one.

[Vympel]

Cope. You say it a lot.

Oh. Nah in that case it means exactly what I think it means.

Thing is Vymple, the west has a long decolonial history of giving up long wars against people "with more to loose". Come to think of it, Russia didn't do any better in Afghanistan either. It's an insane thing to base a theory of victory on, but it would be deeply unserious to neglect the accrued experience of it.

Afghanistan was a decade long insurgency war by the Soviet Union against an enemy in an area of peripheral interest with nothing but time and whose only win condition in a country theoretically entirely occupied was not losing. Ukraine is a conventional war on Russia's literal doorstep and is a product of deep preoccupation amongst the Kremlin elite and swathes of society at large.

And accrued experience matters here. Russia's recent behaviour means Ukraine will only ask for a ceasefire once they have no other option to continue. They know peace now means renewed invasion in five years. They may see a stalemated low intensity war as less costly then a short peace and destruction of everything they took loans to rebuild.

This war is not anyhwhere close to low intensity though - it is extremely high intensity and ruinous.

Ukraine is currently loosing the war, very very slowly in terms of land, and slowly in terms of men. They're adopting ultra dispersed formation in response to the shelling, which minimises losses, but precludes any kind of counter offence.
Us support is in doubt until the election in march, and European support is not being delivered at a serious rate, but it could be. The UK alone has a GDP 3x that of Russia. It would need some legal unlocking and restructuring but throw a decent multiple of current resources at the supply across Europe and the ramp rate would be eye watering. Russia really isn't that rich and it's in a war where the defender only needs Russia to cut losses and go home. It's unserious to ignore that.

If there's anything this war has proven its that GDP as a measurement of war making potential is a fool's errand. The GPD of the West is not represented by anything that could quickly reinvigorate a military industrial complex. In many critical respects the MIC of western countries has simply disappeared and will never return. Like the UK in particular - of all cases - is probably the absolute worst example there is. They have no MIC left worth a damn, especially in terms of ground war. The capability to build new tanks is entirely gone, for example*. Recreating one is not going to appear in time to contribute meaningfully to this war.

*Even with the US - I see it all the time, but you see war commenters on social media working themselves into a lather about how many M1 Abrams the US has in storage that it should just give to Ukraine, because they don't know that those tanks in storage are basically giant paperweights.

(For years we heard western analysts chortle about how "Russia's GDP is less than Italy" - turns out that the services and tourism industry doesn't translate into a lot of war making potential)

Assuming a stable oil market, Russia can afford to keep this up for at least five years before their budget implodes, and could probably do at least one or two more big mobilisations before st Petersburg riots (a guess). They're definitely waiting on the US election outcome before doing anything like that though.
Is a long term low intensity war a useful outcome for Russia? No. For the obligarchs? Maybe.

Except Russia's not the one conscripting increasingly unwilling troops en masse to fight here, Ukraine is. See the Guardian article above about the huge amounts of money Russia's mobilised troops (i.e. actual troops, with military experience) are getting paid to fight, and what an incentive it is. Ukraine's state capacity is being strained to its limit in a way that Russia's is not.

Even Zaluzhny, just before he got fired, lamented this in an essay to CNN:

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/01/opin ... index.html

We must acknowledge the significant advantage enjoyed by the enemy in mobilizing human resources and how that compares with the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our armed forces without the use of unpopular measures.

[LadyTevar]

Except Russia's not the one conscripting increasingly unwilling troops en masse to fight here, Ukraine is.

I really, honestly, cannot believe you managed to post that with a straight face, when IN THIS VERY THREAD SEVERAL PAGES BACK we have sources about Russia no longer offering incentives to prisoners in jail, they're just conscripting them, including non-Russians who're being sent straight to the front lines with minimal training.

And you wonder why EnterpriseSoveign is calling you a Russian bot?

[madd0c0t0r2]

It's terribly good of you Vymple to give such a lovely example of cope after telling ES you know what it means.

Afghanistan was a satellite state sharing a border with the USR. It was invaded to prop up a puppet government to keep buffer zones of influence active after the US tried to win over the region (kajaki damn ect). It was planned as a quick in-out operation and turned into a quagmire that exhausted men and treasure until the Soviets gave up and went home, with the exhausted USSR falling apart 12 months later.

Of course, in the Afghanistan invasion, they actually took all the cities, instead of a few cities, a coal field and a naval port that can't even be used safely. And your copium is interesting, in that you say it was unimportant peripheral stuff with no win condition; that nevertheless exhausted the USSR. I'm not sure why you think a conventional war and occupation with no win condition isn't going to exhaust Russia. These conditions have wrecked every great power. Why will it be different this time?

On the other point: I acknowledge that GDP portion based on tourism and hairdressing isn't going to be much direct help in production. Still, I really cannot emphasize strongly enough how little effort NATO is putting in. The fact they haven't so far is I think equal parts complacency and contempt.
You want to see UK MIC running at capacity? Look at the nightingale hospitals. Multiple complex COVID hospitals and hospices delivered in 2 weeks. Two fucking weeks.
And no offence, while I'm not a milspec buff, I'd be willing to bet I know more about factory setup than you do.
https://www.building.co.uk/comment/afte ... 84.article

On the tanks, I think you may be out of date: https://www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events ... rom%202027.

I'm not sure if this was a change in policy following Brexit. My understanding was that the different NATO/euro countries mic planned to specialise rather than reinvent the compatible wheel. One country, one specialism. The end goal was for all forces to have broadly similar equipment to support working together.

Finally, on the conscription, I can only assume you have had a lapse of memory: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-09-29/
Do you not expect the two annual conscriptions to go ahead in 2024? Can the russian selling dodgy chocolate to cafe goers in da nang Vietnam go home now?

[PainRack]

Note that for Ukranian conscription, one main problem problem Zelensky seems to be raising is a budgetary issue, as the requested numbers will eat up 1/4 of the current budget.


The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in 2021 was 30-35
https://www.ft.com/content/90421972-2f1 ... 9e9257e9b0


It's now 40,so age 5 years. A drastic jump sure.


But of the two, Russia is the nation that has employed more drastic measures first, producing it's current troop surplus.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 023-07-25/
Raising conscription age to 30 and a subsequent age limit of NCO reservists to be raised to 40.

http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/

The average age of soldiers mobilised last year was 35 as per Russia MOD.

https://m.lenta.ru/news/2022/10/28/prizvannye/

Note though that this is in contrast to Ukraine own mobilisation last year

https://www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events ... -recruits/
The UK here notes the average age of Ukraine recruits is 33-34.


The age of soldiers at the front is due directly to the imbalanced demographics of Russia much larger population and coercive measures. This has produced larger troop numbers available to be fed into the grinder, but Russia is also dramatically losing much more than Ukraine.


The problem now of course is the offensive. If a new Ukrainian offensive is launched with the same losses, Ukraine cannot sustain the fight.

But currently? On the defensive? Assuming financial and logistics aid continues, the manpower limits of Ukraine hasn't been reached yet.

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_a ... -the-fight

Proposed lowering of conscription to 25 and targeting workers in EU etc gives potential 500k pool, lowering it to Russian equivalent of 20 will give it more.


The limits on Ukraine, as always is the financial and military logistics aid she requires.

[aerius]

On the other point: I acknowledge that GDP portion based on tourism and hairdressing isn't going to be much direct help in production. Still, I really cannot emphasize strongly enough how little effort NATO is putting in. The fact they haven't so far is I think equal parts complacency and contempt.
You want to see UK MIC running at capacity? Look at the nightingale hospitals. Multiple complex COVID hospitals and hospices delivered in 2 weeks. Two fucking weeks.
And no offence, while I'm not a milspec buff, I'd be willing to bet I know more about factory setup than you do.
https://www.building.co.uk/comment/afte ... 84.article

There's around a dozen countries in the world which make almost all the heavy machinery and machine tools which are used in industrial mass production for civilian & military use. Most of those countries are in Asia, with the US and Germany being the only ones in NATO. Russia of course also has all those goodies thanks to the Soviets.

The UK doesn't have any of that industry, there's no UK equivalent of Heller, DMG-Mori, or the now defunct Mesta Machine company. You don't have the heavy presses which are needed for making key parts of both production machinery and finished products, nor do you have the industry to even make those presses. In other words, the UK is completely dependent on imported tooling if it wants to ramp up military production. Did I mention that it's closing down the last of its blast furnaces this year so it won't even be able to make new steel? By this time next year, the UK will be completely dependent on imports of both tooling and raw materials, that's not how you scale up production. It will take the UK years to scale up military production even if it wanted to.

Russia on the other hand is already buying up every machine tool it can get its hands on from China, Taiwan, and other nations while getting its own tooling industry geared up. They've already invested billions into their own industry since the war started and domestic production of heavy machinery & tools is already ramping up. This is why a single country is out-producing all of NATO put together. People keep forgetting that Russia inherited most of the Soviet Union's massive state owned industries, it's not the "gas station with nukes" which western propaganda claims it is. In reality it's one of the most heavily industrialized nations on Earth, right up there with China, Japan, Germany, and South Korea.