UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

[Ralin]

This is interesting because to me because this is already the most likely conclusion. Not suing for peace is just going to lead to Russia getting ALL of Ukraine. They could and should have negotiated from a position of relative strength when they had the chance. Either way, there's more harm to be had from not seeking some kind of negotiation at this point.

Never know what's going to happen. Putin could drop dead a week from now and whoever takes over could pull the entire Russian army back to deal with domestic threats. Trump could be re-elected and get really angry over a meme about him being Putin's gay lover and order them nuked. Could be troop mutinies, mass sabotage of Russian factories, etc. Is that likely? Maybe not, but flinching and making it known they'll eat shit to end the war guarantees there's no chance of Putin backing down instead of it just being unlikely.

[The Sisko]

This is interesting because to me because this is already the most likely conclusion. Not suing for peace is just going to lead to Russia getting ALL of Ukraine. They could and should have negotiated from a position of relative strength when they had the chance. Either way, there's more harm to be had from not seeking some kind of negotiation at this point.

Never know what's going to happen. Putin could drop dead a week from now

"Let's keep dying and hope" is not a strategy for victory. The difference between eating shit in a negotiation now and later is that later, you eat the whole plate.

On that note, it was Zelensky who almost bought the farm today. Putin's forces fire missile that almost Hits Zelensky motorcade in Odessa attack

A Russian missile nearly hit Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky’s motorcade during an incident near the Black Sea, according to reports.

The president was in Odessa to meet Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis when the incident happened.

It comes after Ukrainian drones struck one of Russia’s largest iron ore plants, with the attack claimed by Ukraine’s military intelligence agency.

A source in Ukraine's GUR military intelligence agency said it was responsible for the attack. Ukraine has stepped up long-range drones to strike targets deep inside Russia.

Russia also carried out an overnight attack on Ukrainian regions on Wednesday with 42 drones, Ukrainian officials said. At least seven people were injured.

Meanwhile, Germany’s ambassador to the UK has said there is “no need to apologise” for the security breaches which led to a call between top military officials being leaked by Russian sources.

Miguel Berger told BBC Radio 4's Today programme one of the participants had likely dialled in via an insecure line.

What's the saying? "Close, but no cigar."

[bilateralrope]

Medvedev again showed that serious peace talks with Russia's current regime are a waste of time, as Russia's goal is the capitulation and near complete annexation of Ukraine.

Sure. They aren't going to lead to peace. Not without something to guarantee Russia keeps to any agreement.

But I'm starting to wonder about the propaganda value of Russia claiming they want peace while Ukraine refuses to take part in talks.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Taurus missiles: What are the stealth weapons at heart of leaked audio and Russian German tension?

On the day that Alexei Navalny was laid to rest in Moscow, Putin’s state media leaked an audio recording of German military officers discussing the hypothetical use of Taurus long-range missiles in Ukraine.

The conversation was never meant to be public, and the leak embarrassed Germany and raised concerns about security.

Furious with Germany, Moscow leveled threats in response.

“If nothing is done, and the German people do not stop this, then there will be dire consequences first and foremost for Germany itself,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Monday.

In her retort, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said, “If Russia had not brutally attacked this country, Ukraine would not have to defend itself,” according to the dpa news agency.
In fact, the German officers discussed sending the Taurus missiles only in theory. Germany has not approved deploying the weapons despite months of pressure from Ukraine.

Here is a look at the fallout from what German media are calling the “wiretapping affair” and the Taurus missiles at the heart of the tensions.

What are Taurus missiles and what can they do?
Equipped with stealth technology that makes them less visible to detection, the missiles have a range of up to 500 kilometers (310 miles), which would help Ukraine to put pressure on Russia in the Black Sea and elsewhere.

The German- and Swedish-made missiles would be able to reach targets deep in Russia from Ukrainian soil. (Taurus is shorthand for Target Adaptive Unitary and dispenser Robotic Ubiquity System.) In Latin, taurus means “bull.”

Ukraine has been asking Germany for the missiles to complement the long-range Storm Shadow missiles sent by Britain and France's nearly identical Scalp cruise missiles.

The UK announced last spring that it was sending Storm Shadows, which have a range of more than 250 kilometers (155 miles) and give Ukraine capacity to strike well behind the front lines, including in Russia-occupied Crimea. Ukraine pledged not to use the missiles to attack Russia itself.

France followed Britain by sending its Scalp missiles, giving assurances that they would not be capable of hitting Russian soil. Paris recently announced the delivery of 40 additional Scalp missiles.

What is Germany’s position?
Germany is the second-biggest supplier of military aid to Ukraine after the United States and is further stepping up support this year. But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has refused to send the Taurus missiles. Last week, he said sending the missiles would pose a risk of his country becoming directly involved in the war.

“German soldiers must at no point and in no place be linked to targets this system reaches,” he said last week.

Some members of the conservative opposition, and even some in his socially liberal three-party coalition, want to send the missiles to Ukraine. But the idea is not popular with the public.

German media have suggested that by not allowing the Taurus weapons to be sent to Ukraine the unpopular chancellor was trying to distinguish himself domestically as “Friedenskanzler” or “peace chancellor” ahead of June elections to the European Parliament.

“Many people are afraid the war could spread. Scholz has long been aware of this sentiment,” the news magazine Der Spiegel wrote Friday. "He wants to show them: I am aware of you and your worries."

For military strategists, there are other concerns.

Gustav Gressel, a senior policy fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in a note earlier this year that while the U.K. and France are already developing successors to their Storm Shadows and Scalps, Germany does not have yet have a successor to the Taurus.

Germans fear that their stocks of Taurus missiles could be depleted, he argued, and that “Russians would see the missile in operation in Ukraine and gain insights into the missile’s countermeasures and stealth characteristics.”

What is in the leaked audio?
The 38-minute recording was published by Margarita Simonyan, chief editor of Russian state-funded television channel RT, on social media Friday, the same day Navalny was laid to rest after his still-unexplained death two weeks earlier in an Arctic penal colony. It surfaced just weeks before Russia’s presidential election.

In the audio, the head of Germany’s air force, Ingo Gerhartz, can be heard discussing deployment scenarios for Taurus missiles in Ukraine with three colleagues ahead of a meeting with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

The conversation took place Feb. 19, according to Simonyan.

The four military officers discuss how Taurus missiles could be used by Kyiv against invading Russian forces and how Germany would need to support Ukraine technically.

At the start of the WebEx conversation, there is a lot of small talk. One participant connected from Singapore. “It is quite humid here,” he says.

The four then start preparing a briefing on the Taurus weapon system for Pistorius, seeking to coordinate their messages and agreeing to prepare some slides to better visualize the situation.

“If we ever decide politically to support Ukraine with it (the Taurus missiles), how would all of this work?" one officer asked. “We should not only talk about problems but also about solutions.”

The four then discuss various issues that would need to be taken into consideration, including delivery, training and timing. They go into detail about what Ukraine would theoretically need the system for, such as targeting “a bridge in the east” or an “ammunition depot.”

In the course of the discussion, it becomes clear that they are referring to the Kerch bridge linking Russia and occupied Crimea. One of the officials says that training to target the bridge, which is “as big as an airfield,” would likely take longer.

They also discuss potential red lines for German politicians, including a desire to avoid the military being seen as directly involved.

The officers say the rapid deployment of Taurus missiles would only be possible with the participation of German soldiers — and that training Ukrainian soldiers to deploy the Taurus on their own would be possible, but would take months.

The recording makes clear that the German government has not given its OK for the delivery of the cruise missiles sought by Ukraine.

[Solauren]

Assuming it's authentic, and not a fake...

I don't see what the big deal is. These are military offices in a country that is supplying one side weapons in a war.
Of course they are going to consider every weapon they have.

[wautd]

This is interesting because to me because this is already the most likely conclusion. Not suing for peace is just going to lead to Russia getting ALL of Ukraine. They could and should have negotiated from a position of relative strength when they had the chance. Either way, there's more harm to be had from not seeking some kind of negotiation at this point.

Never know what's going to happen. Putin could drop dead a week from now

"Let's keep dying and hope" is not a strategy for victory. The difference between eating shit in a negotiation now and later is that later, you eat the whole plate.

On that note, it was Zelensky who almost bought the farm today. Putin's forces fire missile that almost Hits Zelensky motorcade in Odessa attack

A Russian missile nearly hit Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky’s motorcade during an incident near the Black Sea, according to reports.

The president was in Odessa to meet Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis when the incident happened.

It comes after Ukrainian drones struck one of Russia’s largest iron ore plants, with the attack claimed by Ukraine’s military intelligence agency.

A source in Ukraine's GUR military intelligence agency said it was responsible for the attack. Ukraine has stepped up long-range drones to strike targets deep inside Russia.

Russia also carried out an overnight attack on Ukrainian regions on Wednesday with 42 drones, Ukrainian officials said. At least seven people were injured.

Meanwhile, Germany’s ambassador to the UK has said there is “no need to apologise” for the security breaches which led to a call between top military officials being leaked by Russian sources.

Miguel Berger told BBC Radio 4's Today programme one of the participants had likely dialled in via an insecure line.

What's the saying? "Close, but no cigar."

What would have happened if the Greek prime minister was caught in the blast?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Never know what's going to happen. Putin could drop dead a week from now

"Let's keep dying and hope" is not a strategy for victory. The difference between eating shit in a negotiation now and later is that later, you eat the whole plate.

On that note, it was Zelensky who almost bought the farm today. Putin's forces fire missile that almost Hits Zelensky motorcade in Odessa attack

A Russian missile nearly hit Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky’s motorcade during an incident near the Black Sea, according to reports.

The president was in Odessa to meet Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis when the incident happened.

It comes after Ukrainian drones struck one of Russia’s largest iron ore plants, with the attack claimed by Ukraine’s military intelligence agency.

A source in Ukraine's GUR military intelligence agency said it was responsible for the attack. Ukraine has stepped up long-range drones to strike targets deep inside Russia.

Russia also carried out an overnight attack on Ukrainian regions on Wednesday with 42 drones, Ukrainian officials said. At least seven people were injured.

Meanwhile, Germany’s ambassador to the UK has said there is “no need to apologise” for the security breaches which led to a call between top military officials being leaked by Russian sources.

Miguel Berger told BBC Radio 4's Today programme one of the participants had likely dialled in via an insecure line.

What's the saying? "Close, but no cigar."

What would have happened if the Greek prime minister was caught in the blast?

Good question and have been wondering that myself- Greece is a NATO member after all.

[Solauren]

It depends on alot of factors.

if Russia near-Immediately apologized and offered a ceasefire for negotations to end the war, then possible nothing.
However, if Russia handled it badly, ("it was his fault, he went into a war zone") and Greece declared war on Russia over it, then that could have started WW3.

[vakundok]

It depends on alot of factors.

if Russia near-Immediately apologized and offered a ceasefire for negotations to end the war, then possible nothing.
However, if Russia handled it badly, ("it was his fault, he went into a war zone") and Greece declared war on Russia over it, then that could have started WW3.

Why? NATO is not allowed to protect an aggressor member, is it? And it was not Greece that was attacked.

[Rogue 9]

But I'm starting to wonder about the propaganda value of Russia claiming they want peace while Ukraine refuses to take part in talks.

Not much, because everyone knows that if Russia wants peace it can have it as easily as withdrawing across the border.

[Zaune]

I don't think there's ever going to be actual peace, as opposed to the sort of peace you get where everyone's busy rearming, until and unless Putin is removed from office in favour of someone who might plausibly come to the negotiating table in good faith. Why would the Ukrainians sue for peace when all that's likely to accomplish is give him time to rebuild his armies so they can come back to finish the job in another five years? To say nothing of the probable fates of any of their citizens left behind if they're forced to cede any territory.

[Ralin]

I don't think there's ever going to be actual peace, as opposed to the sort of peace you get where everyone's busy rearming, until and unless Putin is removed from office in favour of someone who might plausibly come to the negotiating table in good faith. Why would the Ukrainians sue for peace when all that's likely to accomplish is give him time to rebuild his armies so they can come back to finish the job in another five years? To say nothing of the probable fates of any of their citizens left behind if they're forced to cede any territory.

Optimistically? A combination of the territory taken and whatever concessions Ukraine offers as part of the deal neutering Ukraine as a potential threat and securing most of whatever economic benefits Russia could hope to get out of further conflict to the point where it's not worth trying for more. Since despite having a warped view of the situation Putin presumably isn't going to throw a similar amount of lives and money away again just for shits and giggles.

[madd0c0t0r2]

I don't think there's ever going to be actual peace, as opposed to the sort of peace you get where everyone's busy rearming, until and unless Putin is removed from office in favour of someone who might plausibly come to the negotiating table in good faith. Why would the Ukrainians sue for peace when all that's likely to accomplish is give him time to rebuild his armies so they can come back to finish the job in another five years? To say nothing of the probable fates of any of their citizens left behind if they're forced to cede any territory.

Optimistically? A combination of the territory taken and whatever concessions Ukraine offers as part of the deal neutering Ukraine as a potential threat and securing most of whatever economic benefits Russia could hope to get out of further conflict to the point where it's not worth trying for more. Since despite having a warped view of the situation Putin presumably isn't going to throw a similar amount of lives and money away again just for shits and giggles.

Shits and giggles is hard. I can't see what Russia was hoping to achieve after week 1

Was Ukraine ever a credible threat?
There's Crimea, and the land bridge to it, but this seems to be incredibly expensive for a historic fort that's (now) proven unsafe harbour.
For the time and treasure could have built an artificial mountain and port where the petersburg bridge launches from.

There's a coalfield region taken, and an old nuclear power plant. Not much else I can think of.

[Lord Revan]

I don't think there's ever going to be actual peace, as opposed to the sort of peace you get where everyone's busy rearming, until and unless Putin is removed from office in favour of someone who might plausibly come to the negotiating table in good faith. Why would the Ukrainians sue for peace when all that's likely to accomplish is give him time to rebuild his armies so they can come back to finish the job in another five years? To say nothing of the probable fates of any of their citizens left behind if they're forced to cede any territory.

Optimistically? A combination of the territory taken and whatever concessions Ukraine offers as part of the deal neutering Ukraine as a potential threat and securing most of whatever economic benefits Russia could hope to get out of further conflict to the point where it's not worth trying for more. Since despite having a warped view of the situation Putin presumably isn't going to throw a similar amount of lives and money away again just for shits and giggles.

Shits and giggles is hard. I can't see what Russia was hoping to achieve after week 1

Was Ukraine ever a credible threat?
There's Crimea, and the land bridge to it, but this seems to be incredibly expensive for a historic fort that's (now) proven unsafe harbour.
For the time and treasure could have built an artificial mountain and port where the petersburg bridge launches from.

There's a coalfield region taken, and an old nuclear power plant. Not much else I can think of.

I think prestige is what Russia is after, they want to be the country everyone has to be wary of like the Soviet Union was, the issue there is you could be just wary of the Soviet Union as they knew when not to push too hard, Russia doesn't which is why it has altered policies that had stood since 1945 in the north.

[bilateralrope]

I don't think there's ever going to be actual peace, as opposed to the sort of peace you get where everyone's busy rearming, until and unless Putin is removed from office in favour of someone who might plausibly come to the negotiating table in good faith. Why would the Ukrainians sue for peace when all that's likely to accomplish is give him time to rebuild his armies so they can come back to finish the job in another five years? To say nothing of the probable fates of any of their citizens left behind if they're forced to cede any territory.

I disagree slightly. The only way for any peace to be a lasting peace is if there is something that forces both sides to comply with the treaty even if a future government changes their mind.

For Russia, that something is their nuclear arsenal.

For Ukraine, the options I can see are Russia demilitarizing (not going to happen) or Ukraine joining NATO.

[J]

What would have happened if the Greek prime minister was caught in the blast?

Nothing. Other than a lot of butt hurt & hysterics.

Article 6 of NATO
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/of ... _17120.htm

Article 6

For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

- on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France 2, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
- on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

[Solauren]

How do NATO articles cover targeted assassins against government officials of member states, by outside powers?

Because IF the Greek Prime Minister had been killed, I could see Greece going 'he was the target!'

[Ralin]

Nothing. Other than a lot of butt hurt & hysterics.

Haha, imagine being the sort of hysterical butthurt loser who gets all upset about your prime minister being murdered by another country's military!

Goddamn you're a piece of shit, J.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Nothing. Other than a lot of butt hurt & hysterics.

Haha, imagine being the sort of hysterical butthurt loser who gets all upset about your prime minister being murdered by another country's military!

Goddamn you're a piece of shit, J.

How do NATO articles cover targeted assassins against government officials of member states, by outside powers?

Because IF the Greek Prime Minister had been killed, I could see Greece going 'he was the target!'

My guess is that it is intentionally vague to prevent a replay of WW1 kickoff, and give some of that brinkmanship space that MAD needs to operate in. Or it comes under the heading of 'we never thought something that stupid might happen'.

If we guess that the Russians knew the location of the meeting, and that they have the capability to actually hit it bang on (which seem reasonable), then this is a message of calculated recklessness and brinkmanship by Russia. If european support to ukraine continues, the message is that there will be attacks in europe from plausibly deniable assets. It's not a make friends make peace kind of message.

[Solauren]

Nothing. Other than a lot of butt hurt & hysterics.

Haha, imagine being the sort of hysterical butthurt loser who gets all upset about your prime minister being murdered by another country's military!

Goddamn you're a piece of shit, J.

Under the treaty, that's all it would be, if the Prime Minster has been accidentally killed.
That's why I asked about targeted killings/Assassination.

[PainRack]

Blood doesn't matter on the modern battlefield. Fires does. And guess what??? The sheer paltry amount of Ukrainian fires holding off Russians? Yeah....

Ukraine literally has as much artillery as the entire US army. It had more tanks and armoured vehicles than most of Europe put together. And you're calling this a "paltry" amount of firepower? You are fucking stupid beyond words.

Errr. Yes??? Because Fires aren't just artillery. The USAF, USN and US Army aviation wings are responsible for much of the fires for the US.

[Vympel]

How do NATO articles cover targeted assassins against government officials of member states, by outside powers?

Because IF the Greek Prime Minister had been killed, I could see Greece going 'he was the target!'

They wouldn't.

For one, this entire hubbub about the Odessa strike was immediately played down by both Ukrainian and US sources, who for lack of a better word dismissed it as a strike at a usual target when they just happened to be nearby.

So Greece wouldn't make that kind of call by itself even if it was so minded - which it wouldn't be anyway. Support for Ukraine against Russia is very soft in Greece. The government's pro-Ukraine stance is not popular - its seen as kowtowing to the US/NATO/northern EU states. Its not pro-invasion, but neutrality is preferred. Pro-Russian sentiment is strong for multiple historical and cultural factors that make support for Ukraine commensurately weak.

[LadyTevar]

They wouldn't.

For one, this entire hubbub about the Odessa strike was immediately played down by both Ukrainian and US sources, who for lack of a better word dismissed it as a strike at a usual target when they just happened to be nearby.

So Greece wouldn't make that kind of call by itself even if it was so minded - which it wouldn't be anyway. Support for Ukraine against Russia is very soft in Greece. The government's pro-Ukraine stance is not popular - its seen as kowtowing to the US/NATO/northern EU states. Its not pro-invasion, but neutrality is preferred. Pro-Russian sentiment is strong for multiple historical and cultural factors that make support for Ukraine commensurately weak.

I wonder if that attitude would have changed with the death of their PM.
Citizens do tend to get riled up when they believe something was done unfairly to one of their own.

But... it didn't happen, so we're arguing in circles because there's been no new moves to discuss at the moment, outside of Biden's speech where he called for more aid.

[PainRack]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 68c05f3514



Ukraine aggressive and closely placed use of Patriots finally saw two launchers get hit and destroyed by the Russians.



Such is the fortune of war, but the loss of another HIMARS in Ukraine suggests that



https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stori ... -collapse/



US speculation is true. Ukraine is running out of air defense missiles to defend herself.





Glares at Republican Johnson

[J]

https://apnews.com/article/state-depart ... e7520e3086

Victoria Nuland, third-highest ranking US diplomat and critic of Russia’s war in Ukraine, retiring

WASHINGTON (AP) — Victoria Nuland, the third-highest ranking U.S. diplomat and frequent target of criticism for her hawkish views on Russia and its actions in Ukraine, will retire and leave her post this month, the State Department said Tuesday.

Nuland, a career foreign service officer who served as Assistant Secretary of State for Europe during the Obama administration but retired after Donald Trump was elected president, returned to government as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs in the Biden administration.

She had been a candidate to succeed Wendy Sherman as deputy Secretary of State and had served as acting deputy since Sherman’s retirement seven months ago but lost an internal administration personnel battle when President Joe Biden nominated Kurt Campbell to the no. 2 spot. Campbell took office last month.

Nuland had served at the U.S. embassy in Moscow in the tumultuous 1990s and was in the city during the attempted coup against former Russian President Boris Yeltsin.

She then became U.S. ambassador to NATO before being tapped to serve as the State Department spokeswoman under former Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton during President Barack Obama’s first term.

As the department spokeswoman and later as assistant Secretary of State for Europe, Nuland drew the ire of many Russian leaders for her outspoken defense of Ukraine, particularly after Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014.

Former Secretary of State John Kerry has recalled on numerous times that when Nuland left the spokeswoman’s job during his tenure to become the top diplomat for Europe, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov congratulated him for “getting rid of that woman.” Kerry said he replied to Lavrov that he didn’t get rid of her, “I promoted her.”

Current Secretary of State Antony Blinken praised Nuland for her three and a half decades of public service and thanked her for her role in shaping U.S. policy around the world under six presidents and 10 secretaries of state.

“But it’s Toria’s leadership on Ukraine that diplomats and students of foreign policy will study for years to come,” Blinken said in a statement.

“Her efforts have been indispensable to confronting Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marshaling a global coalition to ensure his strategic failure, and helping Ukraine work toward the day when it will be able to stand strongly on its own feet – democratically, economically, and militarily.”

The Russian foreign ministry immediately seized on the announcement, calling it an admission of failed U.S. policy toward Russia.

“They won’t tell you the reason,” spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. “But it is simple - the failure of the anti-Russian course of the Biden administration. Russophobia, proposed by Victoria Nuland as the main foreign policy concept of the United States, is dragging the Democrats to the bottom like a stone.”

Nuland will be replaced temporarily as under secretary by another career diplomat, John Bass, a former ambassador to Afghanistan who oversaw the U.S. withdrawal from the country. He is currently the undersecretary of state for management.

U.S. officials said the favorite to succeed Nuland in a permanent capacity is the current U.S. ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith, a one-time Pentagon official who also served as then-Vice President Biden’s deputy national security adviser.

The deranged psychopath who said, and I quote, "fuck the EU!" and played a huge part in getting us into this mess in the Ukraine is now gone. Good riddance to a piece of trash.