UKRAINE WAR - 2024 thread

[Rogue 9]

I would ask what business of Belarus' a domestic crime committed in Russia is, but we all know the answer.

[J]

I would ask what business of Belarus' a domestic crime committed in Russia is, but we all know the answer.

Belarusian citizens were killed in the Crocus attack. This opens up a legal path where the terrorists can be extradited to Belarus and executed if that's what both sides want. After, of course, the proper confessions have been obtained by cutting off ears and applying electrical shocks to the gonads.

[vakundok]

Including that Zelensky hired them? Afterwards kill them, so that they can not "review" their confession, and do it "legally", so who wants to avoid questioning the credibility of those confessions, can rightfully do so.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Exclusive: Iran alerted Russia to security threat before Moscow attack

Summary
Iran warned Russia of possible terrorist attack
Information provided lacked specific details
Tehran gained information from suspects linked to Kerman attack
US intelligence also warned Russia of likely attack
Says Afghan-based ISIS-K behind both Russia and Iran attacks

DUBAI, April 1 (Reuters) - Iran tipped off Russia about the possibility of a major "terrorist operation" on its soil ahead of the concert hall massacre near Moscow last month, three sources familiar with the matter said.

In the deadliest attack inside Russia in 20 years, gunmen opened fire with automatic weapons at concertgoers on March 22 at the Crocus City Hall, killing at least 144 people in violence claimed by the Islamic State militant group.

The United States had also warned Russia in advance of a likely militant Islamist attack but Moscow, deeply distrustful of Washington's intentions, played down that intelligence.

It is harder, however, for Russia to dismiss intelligence from diplomatic ally Iran on the attack, which has also raised questions over the effectiveness of Russian security services. Moscow and Tehran, both under Western sanctions, have deepened military and other cooperation during the two-year Ukraine war.

"Days before the attack in Russia, Tehran shared information with Moscow about a possible big terrorist attack inside Russia that was acquired during interrogations of those arrested in connection with deadly bombings in Iran," one of the sources told Reuters.

Iran arrested 35 people in January, including a commander of Islamic State's Afghanistan-based branch ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), who it said were linked to twin bombings on Jan. 3 in the city of Kerman that killed nearly 100 people.

Islamic State claimed responsibility for the Iran blasts, the bloodiest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. U.S. intelligence sources said ISIS-K had carried out both the Jan. 3 attacks in Iran and the March 22 shootings in Moscow.

Islamic State once occupied large swathes of Iraq and Syria, imposing a reign of terror and inspiring lone wolf attacks in Western countries, but was declared territorially defeated in 2017.

However ISIS-K, one of its most fearsome branches, has raised the group's profile again with large-scale bloodshed.
ISIS-K, named after an old term for a region that encompassed parts of Iran, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan, emerged in eastern Afghanistan in late 2014 and quickly established a reputation for extreme brutality.

'SIGNIFICANT OPERATION'
A second source, who also requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, said the information Tehran provided to Moscow about an impending attack had lacked specific details regarding timing and the exact target.

"They (the members of ISIS-K) were instructed to prepare for a significant operation in Russia... One of the terrorists (arrested in Iran) said some members of the group had already travelled to Russia," the second source said.

A third source, a senior security official, said: "As Iran has been a victim of terror attacks for years, Iranian authorities fulfilled their obligation to alert Moscow based on information acquired from those arrested terrorists."

Asked about the Reuters report, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday: "I do not know anything about this."

Iran's foreign ministry did not reply to a request for comment on this story. The White House had no comment on the matter.

A source familiar with the U.S. intelligence on an impending attack in Russia said it was based on interceptions of "chatter" among ISIS-K militants.

Challenging the U.S. assertions, Russia has said it believes Ukraine was linked to the attack, without providing evidence. Kyiv has strongly denied the assertion.

TAJIK NATIONALS
The attacks in Kerman and near Moscow both involved Tajik nationals. ISIS-K has aggressively recruited from the impoverished former Soviet republic of Tajikistan, security experts say.

Sources said Iran had discussed its security concerns with Tajikistan. A diplomatic source in Tajikistan confirmed that Tehran had recently discussed with Dushanbe the issue of increased involvement of ethnic Tajiks in militant activities.

Islamic State harbours a virulent hatred for Shi'ites -- Iran's dominant sect and also the target of its affiliate's attacks in Afghanistan. The hardline Sunni Muslim group views Shi'ites as apostates.

In 2022 Islamic State claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on a Shi'ite shrine in Iran that killed 13 people. Tehran identified the attacker as a Tajik national.

Earlier attacks claimed by Islamic State include twin bombings in 2017 that targeted Iran's parliament and the tomb of the Islamic Republic's founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

[wautd]

I wonder why Putin is against the death penalty in Russia? I wonder why Putin is against the death penalty in Russia? He's afraid he might have to face it one day?

The Russian dictator is above the law (there is no rule of law in Russia after all).
But hopefully the death penalty stays out of Russia. Political repression in Russia is already as bad enough as it is. Now that LGBT organizations or anti Putin critics like Garry Kasparov have been officially labelled as terrorists and extremists, Putin's regime would go on a murder spree against sane Russians.

[Vympel]

Ukraine lowers army draft age to 25 to generate more fighting power

KYIV, April 2 (Reuters) - President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signed a bill on Tuesday to lower the mobilisation age for combat duty from 27 to 25, a move that should help Ukraine generate more fighting power in its war with Russia.

The bill had been on Zelenskiy's table since it was approved by lawmakers in May 2023, and it was not immediately clear what prompted him to sign it. Parliament has been discussing a separate bill to broadly tighten draft rules for months.

The move expands the number of civilians the army can mobilise into its ranks to fight under martial law, which has been in place since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Ukrainian troops are on the back foot on the battlefield, facing a shortage of ammunition supplies with vital funding from the U.S. blocked by Republicans in Congress for months and the European Union failing to deliver promised ammunition on time.

The signing of the legislation was not immediately announced by the president's office. Parliament merely updated the entry for the bill on its website to read: "returned with the signature of the president of Ukraine".

Zelenskiy said last winter that he would only sign the bill if he was given a strong enough argument of the need to do so.

The Ukrainian leader said in December that the military had proposed mobilising up to 500,000 more Ukrainians into the armed forces, something he said then-commander of the armed forces had asked for.

Since then, Ukraine has changed the head of the armed forces and the new chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said last week that the figure was no longer up-to-date and that it had been "significantly reduced" after a review of resources.

Zelenskiy separately signed a second bill requiring men given waivers from some military service on disability grounds to undergo another medical assessment.

A third bill he also signed aimed to create an online database of those eligible for military service. Both those bills could potentially help the military draft more fighters.

A string of strict measures set out in an earlier draft of that bill were gutted following a public outcry.

Zelenskiy has warned that Russia may plan another offensive later this spring or in summer, and Kyiv's troops have been scaling up their efforts to build up strong defensive fortifications along a sprawling front line.

With the initial shock of the invasion long gone, Ukraine has faced a significant reduction in the flow of volunteer fighters and numerous cases of draft evasion have been reported.

A seperate CNN article draws a distinction and says the law lowers the age men can be drafted to 25 but the mobilisation age is still 27, which is a weird distinction and I'm not sure how it works in practice. The same article claims that Ukraine is also considering lowering the mobilisation age to 25 anyway:

Zelensky signs law expanding draft age as Ukraine struggles to beef up its military

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a law that will lower the country’s minimum conscription age from 27 to 25, potentially boosting the number of men available to fight Russia’s invasion.

The Ukrainian Parliament passed the measure in May 2023 but Zelensky had not signed it into law until Tuesday.

It is unclear how many men will be impacted by the move.

A statement published by the Parliament upon passing the law in 2023 said it was “inappropriate” that “a significant number of citizens” who were fit for military service could not be called up, despite the present need, under martial law.

Calling men up to fight under Ukraine’s martial law, which is currently in effect, is a two-stage process. Firstly, men are drafted into military service. Then, once serving in the military, they can later be mobilized – or called up to fight – by the government.

The law signed by Zelensky on Tuesday lowers the age they can be drafted to 25, but leaves the mobilization age at 27, However, the Ukrainian Parliament is also considering a bill that would reduce the mobilization age to 25.

Martial law also prohibits most men between the ages 18 and 60 from leaving Ukraine, unless they are deemed unfit for military service for health reasons or have an exemption.

The move comes as Ukraine has struggled to free up more manpower for its military as the Russian invasion continues into a third year.

Earlier this week, the United Kingdom’s defense intelligence agency released a report that noted Russia had significantly more personnel and munitions on the eastern front than Ukraine and was able to replenish its forces by 30,000 troops a month.

Controversial issue

Expanding the draft age has been a controversial issue in Ukraine. At the beginning of 2024, the former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s army Valerii Zaluzhnyi argued that the army needed another 500,000 soldiers.

He expressed his frustration at “the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our armed forces without the use of unpopular measures,” in a CNN op-ed published in February.

Disagreement regarding the draft age is believed to be one of the reasons why Zelensky fired Zaluzhnyi in February of 2024.

But Zelensky previously said he would agree to a law to mobilize younger Ukrainian men, if it was “really” needed.

“If there are enough arguments to mobilize 25-year-olds and this is really something we need to do – I will agree with it,” Zelensky told reporters in a December press conference, where he also ruled out mobilization of women.

[Broomstick]

Exclusive: Iran alerted Russia to security threat before Moscow attack

I am beginning to think that Russia knew about the attack but allowed it to happen so it could be used for political purposes, hence all the finger-pointing at Ukraine. Putin knows damn well Ukraine had nothing to do with it but that doesn't matter. All that matters is that he wins in Ukraine.

[Zaune]

I'm honestly surprised that Ukraine's conscription age is as high as it is, given that in most countries you can enlist as a volunteer at 18 and that's when there isn't a war on.

[Ralin]

“If there are enough arguments to mobilize 25-year-olds and this is really something we need to do – I will agree with it,” Zelensky told reporters in a December press conference, where he also ruled out mobilization of women.

Why wouldn't they mobilize women?

[aerius]

Exclusive: Iran alerted Russia to security threat before Moscow attack

I am beginning to think that Russia knew about the attack but allowed it to happen so it could be used for political purposes, hence all the finger-pointing at Ukraine. Putin knows damn well Ukraine had nothing to do with it but that doesn't matter. All that matters is that he wins in Ukraine.

That's about as stupid as "Bush knew about 9/11 but let it happen anyway because he wanted to invade the Middle East". Actually it's even more stupid, considering that Putin already had the overwhelming support of Russians to do whatever the fuck he wants to the Ukraine whereas Bush was sitting at under 50% approval rating prior to 9/11.

[J]

ISIS is still claiming responsibility for the attack. It's the "why" that confuses me.

Because they (read: someone somehow associated with ISIS) found someone pissed off or bitter or whatever enough to do it and that happened to be right now. ISIS has no reason not to take credit for a good terror attack against most non-Muslim countries.

It's probably not anything anymore complicated than that.

Correct. These are not ISIS terrorists. Pointing to god with the unclean hand is about as acceptable as the Hitler salute in modern Germany.

[Ralin]

ISIS is still claiming responsibility for the attack. It's the "why" that confuses me.

Because they (read: someone somehow associated with ISIS) found someone pissed off or bitter or whatever enough to do it and that happened to be right now. ISIS has no reason not to take credit for a good terror attack against most non-Muslim countries.

It's probably not anything anymore complicated than that.

Correct. These are not ISIS terrorists. Pointing to god with the unclean hand is about as acceptable as the Hitler salute in modern Germany.

ISIS is an ethnically diverse organization/movement and far as I know the unclean hand custom is an Arab thing, not a Muslim thing.

[The Sisko]

Exclusive: Iran alerted Russia to security threat before Moscow attack

I am beginning to think that Russia knew about the attack but allowed it to happen so it could be used for political purposes, hence all the finger-pointing at Ukraine. Putin knows damn well Ukraine had nothing to do with it but that doesn't matter. All that matters is that he wins in Ukraine.

More likely, Russia didn't trust Western warnings, and their Intelligence Services were too busy.

I don't know where this popular notion of the False Flag took root so deeply in discussions. I think the idea can probably be traced back to the Pearl Harbor conspiracy theory.

WRT Ukraine Re: Conscription age, I've been trying to wrack my brain around this as well. The country's conscription law going down in age is not really significant in terms of manpower it will generate. (I vaguely remember reading somewhere that in Ukraine, this move is seen as 'tinkering' with the law but not really doing anything to adjust the situation) But Ukraine is running out of people. Ukraine is at the point now where reducing the draft age to around 18 would leave what Russia hasn't bombed of their economy completely inert. Nevermind that it's not early 2023, morale among the Ukrainians isn't the best and the West is bad at everything, especially when it matters - if you were asked to go fight for Ukraine, do you think you would live long enough to see Ukraine even force a settlement, much less assemble the Avengers and send Vladimir Thanos back to the Marvelverse? If Ukraine could get back all the manpower that's fled in the last two years, their army would currently be twice its size.

Finally, Ukraine has become a dictatorship run by Zelensky and his Military Junta, Ukrainians know this, and if they get unhappy enough with him they'll force him to flee to the West just like they drove out Viktor all those years ago so the war can end and Ukraine can get back to the business of not being bombed and getting Russian economic support.

[Zaune]

A little weaponised incompetence helps justify the budget sometimes, that's all I'll say.

[Broomstick]

“If there are enough arguments to mobilize 25-year-olds and this is really something we need to do – I will agree with it,” Zelensky told reporters in a December press conference, where he also ruled out mobilization of women.

Why wouldn't they mobilize women?

Somebody has to have the babies and raise the children.

Also, since at least the early 20th Century when men are conscripted in large numbers women wind up running the factories and a lot of other stuff.

Most armies these days allow women to volunteer/enlist but so far as I know Israel is the only nation that requires military service from women as a matter of course.

Drafting women is a bit of a desperation move. Ukraine might go there, but they're not there yet.

[Broomstick]

Exclusive: Iran alerted Russia to security threat before Moscow attack

I am beginning to think that Russia knew about the attack but allowed it to happen so it could be used for political purposes, hence all the finger-pointing at Ukraine. Putin knows damn well Ukraine had nothing to do with it but that doesn't matter. All that matters is that he wins in Ukraine.

That's about as stupid as "Bush knew about 9/11 but let it happen anyway because he wanted to invade the Middle East". Actually it's even more stupid, considering that Putin already had the overwhelming support of Russians to do whatever the fuck he wants to the Ukraine whereas Bush was sitting at under 50% approval rating prior to 9/11.

I agree it's stupid, but stupid happens sometimes. Putin has long been rumored to have been involved in false-flag operations, and those are just as stupid.

Do I have proof? No. I do have a lot of suspicions.

[Broomstick]

Exclusive: Iran alerted Russia to security threat before Moscow attack

I am beginning to think that Russia knew about the attack but allowed it to happen so it could be used for political purposes, hence all the finger-pointing at Ukraine. Putin knows damn well Ukraine had nothing to do with it but that doesn't matter. All that matters is that he wins in Ukraine.

More likely, Russia didn't trust Western warnings, and their Intelligence Services were too busy.

I don't know where this popular notion of the False Flag took root so deeply in discussions. I think the idea can probably be traced back to the Pearl Harbor conspiracy theory.

More likely the 1999 Russian apartment bombings, at least as regards Putin being involved in false flags.

Finally, Ukraine has become a dictatorship run by Zelensky and his Military Junta, Ukrainians know this, and if they get unhappy enough with him they'll force him to flee to the West just like they drove out Viktor all those years ago so the war can end and Ukraine can get back to the business of not being bombed and getting Russian economic support.

Well... after some heavy ethnic cleansing and re-settling of a substantial part of Ukraine by Russians....

[wautd]

ISIS is still claiming responsibility for the attack. It's the "why" that confuses me.

Because they (read: someone somehow associated with ISIS) found someone pissed off or bitter or whatever enough to do it and that happened to be right now. ISIS has no reason not to take credit for a good terror attack against most non-Muslim countries.

It's probably not anything anymore complicated than that.

Correct. These are not ISIS terrorists.

They are ISIS-K, and ISIS/ISIS-K has plenty of reasons to attack (Russia being allied/friendly with its enemies like Iran, the Afghan Taliban, Hamas. And is fighting them in Syria to defend the Assad regime)
And since they live streamed and shared images of the terrorists and their attack, I'm pretty sure that their claim is real. Heck, they claimed the attack at least 3 times. The irony when even ISIS scum is fighting Russian disinformation blaiming anyone but ISIS or themselves

[LadyTevar]

Finally, Ukraine has become a dictatorship run by Zelensky and his Military Junta, Ukrainians know this, and if they get unhappy enough with him they'll force him to flee to the West just like they drove out Viktor all those years ago so the war can end and Ukraine can get back to the business of not being bombed and getting Russian economic support.

CITE YOUR SOURCE FOR THIS

[wautd]

Exclusive: Iran alerted Russia to security threat before Moscow attack

I am beginning to think that Russia knew about the attack but allowed it to happen so it could be used for political purposes, hence all the finger-pointing at Ukraine. Putin knows damn well Ukraine had nothing to do with it but that doesn't matter. All that matters is that he wins in Ukraine.

More likely, Russia didn't trust Western warnings

No shit. Two weeks before the terrorist attack, Putin called the Western warnings a provocation on state TV.
Ironically, turns out that his buddies from Iran warned Russia too.

and their Intelligence Services were too busy.

Yeah, they have their hands full with persecuting Russians.

Finally, Ukraine has become a dictatorship run by Zelensky and his Military Junta

And you say this because they're not organizing new presidential elections? In the middle of a full scale invasion, where the aggressor occupies 20 percent of the country, I don't think it's even possible to organize elections even if Ukraine wanted to.

[Solauren]

Finally, Ukraine has become a dictatorship run by Zelensky and his Military Junta, Ukrainians know this, and if they get unhappy enough with him they'll force him to flee to the West just like they drove out Viktor all those years ago so the war can end and Ukraine can get back to the business of not being bombed and getting Russian economic support.

You mean a country currently under invasion by a hostile power is behaving like a country under invasion by a hostile power? SHOCKING

Zelensky is not the cause of the invasion. PUTIN/Russia is. All Zelensky is doing is trying to keep his country from being annexed by the the local Hitler-Wannabe.

[Vympel]

Ukraine is at great risk of its frontlines collapsing

KYIV — Wayward entrepreneur Elon Musk’s latest pronouncements regarding the war in Ukraine set teeth on edge, as he warned that even though Moscow has “no chance” of conquering all of Ukraine, “the longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnipro, which is tough to overcome.”

“However, if the war lasts long enough, Odesa will fall too,” he cautioned.

With a history of urging Ukraine to agree to territorial concessions — and his opposition to the $60 billion U.S. military aid package snarled on Capitol Hill amid partisan wrangling — Musk isn’t Ukraine’s favorite commentator, to say the least. And his remarks received predictable pushback.

But the billionaire entrepreneur’s forecast isn’t actually all that different from the dire warnings Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made in the last few days. According to Zelenskyy, unless the stalled multibillion-dollar package is approved soon, his forces will have to “go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.” He also warned that some major cities could be at risk of falling.

Obviously, Zelenskyy’s warnings are part of a broad diplomatic effort to free up the military aid his forces so desperately need and have been short of for months — everything from 155-millimeter artillery shells to Patriot air-defense systems and drones. But the sad truth is that even if the package is approved by the U.S. Congress, a massive resupply may not be enough to prevent a major battlefield upset.

And such a setback, especially in the middle of election campaigns in America and Europe, could very well revive Western pressure for negotiations that would obviously favor Russia, leaving the Kremlin free to revive the conflict at a future time of its choosing.

Essentially, everything now depends on where Russia will decide to target its strength in an offensive that’s expected to launch this summer. In a pre-offensive pummeling — stretching from Kharkiv and Sumy in the north to Odesa in the south — Russia’s missile and drone strikes have widely surged in recent weeks, targeting infrastructure and making it hard to guess where it will mount its major push.

And according to high-ranking Ukrainian military officers who served under General Valery Zaluzhny — the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until he was replaced in February — the military picture is grim.

The officers said there’s a great risk of the front lines collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive. Moreover, thanks to a much greater weight in numbers and the guided aerial bombs that have been smashing Ukrainian positions for weeks now, Russia will likely be able to “penetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts,” they said.

They spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely.

“There’s nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don’t have those technologies, and the West doesn’t have them as well in sufficient numbers,” one of the top-ranking military sources told POLITICO.

According to him, it is only Ukrainian grit and resilience as well as errors by Russian commanders that may now alter the grim dynamics. Mistakes like the one made on Saturday, when Russia launched one of the largest tank assaults on Ukrainian positions since its full-scale invasion began, only to have the column smashed by Ukraine’s 25th Brigade, which took out a dozen tanks and 8 infantry fighting vehicles — a third of the column’s strength.

However, the high-ranking Ukrainian officers reminded that relying on Russian errors is not a strategy, and they were bitter about the missteps they say hamstrung Ukraine’s resistance from the start — missteps made by both the West and Ukraine. They were also scathing about Western foot-dragging, saying supplies and weapons systems came too late and in insufficient numbers to make the difference they otherwise could have.

“Zaluzhny used to call it ‘the War of One Chance,’” one of the officers said. “By that, he meant weapons systems become redundant very quickly because they’re quickly countered by the Russians. For example, we used Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles [supplied by Britain and France] successfully — but just for a short time. The Russians are always studying. They don’t give us a second chance. And they’re successful in this.”

“Don’t believe the hype about them just throwing troops into the meat grinder to be slaughtered,” he added. “They do that too, of course — maximizing even more the impact of their superior numbers — but they also learn and refine.”

The officers said the shoulder-fired anti-tank missiles supplied by the U.K. and U.S. in the first weeks of the invasion came in time, helping them save Kyiv — and so, too, did the HIMARS, the light multiple-launch rocket systems, which were used to great effect, enabling them to push Russia out of Kherson in November 2022.

“But often, we just don’t get the weapons systems at the time we need them — they come when they’re no longer relevant,” another senior officer said, citing the F-16 fighter jets as an example. A dozen or so F-16s are expected to be operational this summer, after basic pilot training has been completed. “Every weapon has its own right time. F-16s were needed in 2023; they won’t be right for 2024,” he said.

And that’s because, according to this officer, Russia is ready to counter them: “In the last few months, we started to notice missiles being fired by the Russians from Dzhankoy in northern Crimea, but without the explosive warheads. We couldn’t understand what they were doing, and then we figured it out: They’re range-finding,” he said. The officer explained that Russia’s been calculating where best to deploy its S-400 missile and radar systems in order to maximize the area they can cover to target the F-16s, keeping them away from the front lines and Russia’s logistical hubs.

The officers also said they now need more basic traditional weapons as well as drones. “We need Howitzers and shells, hundreds of thousands of shells, and rockets,” one of them told POLITICO, estimating that Ukraine needed 4 million shells and 2 million drones. “We told the Western partners all the time that we have the combat experience, we have the battlefield understanding of this war. [They] have the resources, and they need to give us what we need,” he added.

Europe, for its part, is trying to help Ukraine make up for its colossal disadvantage in artillery shells. And in this regard, a proposed Czech-led bulk artillery ammunition purchase could bring Ukraine’s total from both within and outside the EU to around 1.5 million rounds at a cost of $3.3 billion — but that’s still short of what it needs.

The officers emphasized that they need many, many more men too. The country currently doesn’t have enough men on the front lines, and this is compounding the problem of underwhelming Western support.

However, Ukraine has yet to pull the trigger on recruitment ahead of the expected Russian push, as authorities are worried about the political fallout mobilization measures might bring amid draft-dodging and avoidance of conscription papers. Zaluzhny had already publicly called for the mobilization of more troops back in December, estimating Ukraine needed at least an additional 500,000 men. The draft issue has gone back and forth ever since.

Then, last week, General Oleksandr Syrsky — Zaluzhny’s replacement — abruptly announced that Ukraine might not need quite so many fresh troops. After a review of resources, the figure has been “significantly reduced,” and “we expect that we will have enough people capable of defending their motherland,” he told the Ukrinform news agency. “I am talking not only about the mobilized but also about volunteer fighters,” he said.

The plan is to move as many desk-bound uniformed personnel and those in noncombat roles to the front lines as possible, after an intensive three- to four-month training. But the senior officers POLITICO spoke to said that Syrsky was wrong and “playing along with narratives from politicians.” Then, on Tuesday, Zelenskyy signed some additional parts to an old mobilization law tightening the legal requirements for draft-age Ukrainian men to register their details, and lowering the minimum age for call-up from 27 to 25. But in Ukraine, this is just seen as tinkering.

“We don’t only have a military crisis — we have a political one,” one of the officers said. While Ukraine shies away from a big draft, “Russia is now gathering resources and will be ready to launch a big attack around August, and maybe sooner.”

So, Musk may not be too wide of the mark after all.

The only thing I have to say to this is characterising the stalled $60B aid package as promising a 'massive resupply' if/when passed is ... debatable. None of this money is going to allow for, say, huge quantities of fresh armor (which simply don't exist) being sent. What is likely going to be available to be allocated is purchases of ammunition.

Of the $60B:

- $20B goes to the US military to pay for replenishing stocks they already tapped for Ukraine;
- $14B is money for Ukraine to buy weapons from the US;
- $15B is the cost of US support for Ukraine - training, intelligence sharing, presence in Eastern Europe, etc.
- $8B in direct budget support for Ukraine (i.e. paying government salaries etc); and
- $1.6B for economic development, another $1.6B for "bolstering air and maritime defences in and around Ukraine".

Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/us-ukraine-aid- ... 22804.html

[The Sisko]

Finally, Ukraine has become a dictatorship run by Zelensky and his Military Junta, Ukrainians know this, and if they get unhappy enough with him they'll force him to flee to the West just like they drove out Viktor all those years ago so the war can end and Ukraine can get back to the business of not being bombed and getting Russian economic support.

CITE YOUR SOURCE FOR THIS

Ukraine bans political parties:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-law-ban ... 49737.html



KYIV -- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signed a new law banning pro-Russian political parties.

"The president of Ukraine has signed a law banning pro-Russia political parties! The law will come into force on the day following the day of its publication," Olha Sovgirya, a deputy from Zelenskiy’s ruling Servant of the People bloc, wrote on telegram on May 14.

The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, passed the bill on May 3, banning pro-Russian political parties that engage in anti-Ukrainian activities.

On March 20, Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council suspended 11 pro-Russian political parties while martial law was in place in the country.

The largest of the parties with links to Russia is the Opposition Platform for Life, which has 44 out of 450 seats in parliament.

The party is led by Viktor Medvedchuk, who has friendly ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the godfather of Medvedchuk's daughter.

The list of the Moscow-friendly parties also included the Nashi (Ours) party led by Yevhen Murayev. British authorities had warned that Russia wanted to install Murayev as the leader of Ukraine.

Moscow "is looking to install a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv as it considers whether to invade and occupy Ukraine," and Murayev "is being considered as a potential candidate," the British Foreign Office said in January.

Ukraine suspended elections:

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/92110

Is Zelensky’s Legitimacy Really At Risk?
Ukraine’s decision not to hold presidential elections amid the Russian invasion and martial law has raised sensitive questions about Zelensky’s position.

Volodymyr Zelensky’s five-year presidential term expires on May 20, 2024. When he was inaugurated, Zelensky promised to bring peace to Ukraine, to root out the corrupt elite, and to serve just one term as president. But time is a cruel and fickle master. Now Ukraine is embroiled in a full-scale war as it defends itself against Russian aggression; domestic politics is plagued by corruption; and Zelensky stands accused of seeking to usurp power. As it’s impossible to hold elections while martial law is in place, Zelensky will remain in power after his term expires. This creates an unexpected problem for Ukrainian democracy.

The doubts about Zelensky remaining in his post after May 20 arise from the vagueness of Ukrainian law. While the constitution does not explicitly ban holding presidential elections under martial law, it also states that the president should continue to serve until a successor is elected (Article 108), and that presidential terms last five years (Article 103).

Ukrainian lawyers point out that the absence of a mechanism for extending a president’s term is a deliberate omission—so as to reduce the risk of abuse of power. At the same time, Ukrainian electoral law forbids the holding of elections during martial law.

Officials maintain that after May 20, Zelensky will become acting president until the next election. However, his opponents interpret the law in such a way as to argue it’s the speaker of the Ukrainian parliament who should become acting president: that’s who the constitution deems to be the next in line if the president is no longer able to fulfill his duties.

There is a precedent in recent Ukrainian history for a parliamentary speaker becoming acting president. That’s what happened in 2014, when President Viktor Yanukovych fled the country amid a popular uprising in Kyiv. After Yanukovych’s abrupt departure, Speaker Oleksandr Turchynov became acting president. He then handed power to Petro Poroshenko, winner of the subsequent presidential election.

Unsurprisingly, Zelensky is not a fan of this option. And Ruslan Stefanchuk, the current parliamentary speaker and a member of the pro-Zelensky Servant of the People party, is not seeking the presidency. He has already publicly confirmed that Zelensky will be acting president until elections take place.

However, parliament is no longer as unquestionably accepting of Zelensky as it once was. Davyd Arakhamia, the head of the Servant of the People faction in parliament, is on record stating that the political consensus that existed at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion has collapsed. And that means there could be a different speaker in parliament: one who might push to be made acting president. Given the deepening divisions in Servant of the People, Zelensky’s opponents may try to restructure the parliamentary majority after May 20 in an attempt to force the president to hand power to a new speaker.

Ukraine’s Constitutional Court could resolve this dispute, but Zelensky’s office is unwilling to involve it. Firstly, such a move could be interpreted as proof that there are doubts even among Zelensky’s team about his legitimacy. Secondly, Zelensky is locked in a long-running dispute with Constitutional Court judges over their resistance to anti-corruption legislation. The court could well, therefore, issue a ruling that would only complicate the situation further.

Of course, on their own, the accusations of illegitimacy against Zelensky are unlikely to bother ordinary Ukrainians, but if they are accompanied by significant military and social problems, then they could become more serious.

For the moment, public opinion is on Zelensky’s side. According to a February poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 69 percent of Ukrainians want Zelensky to continue as president until martial law is lifted, and 15 percent want him to stay on until new elections. Just 10 percent want to see the parliamentary speaker become acting president. As many as 53 percent would like to see Zelensky stand for a second term, though that figure is gradually declining.

For Zelensky’s main opponent, former president Poroshenko, the legitimacy issue is a useful way of exerting pressure—with the aim of forcing the government to share power in a broader coalition. Some of Zelensky’s former allies are also speaking out over the issue. Ex-parliamentary speaker Dmytro Razumkov believes that the president’s term ends on May 20 and he should cede power to the speaker. Formerly influential Servant of the People parliamentary deputy Oleksandr Dubinsky (currently under investigation on treason charges) has directly accused Zelensky of usurping power.

Of course, Kremlin propagandists will do their best to amplify questions about Zelensky’s legitimacy. The narrative is an obvious one: Russian President Vladimir Putin was elected for a fifth term in Russia’s March presidential vote, while Zelensky canceled Ukraine’s elections. The fact that Russian elections are a sham is a minor detail in such narratives.

The main problem is that Zelensky is becoming nervous and starting to overreact to allegations of illegitimacy. Since the firing of General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top military commander, which shook public trust in Zelensky, the president has begun to use cliched and unconvincing rhetoric about unspecified attempts to “rock the boat.” He has warned about the risks of some sort of uprising, and hinted that any attempts to question his legitimacy will be seen as part of an enemy plot to destabilize the country. Officials are even discussing a response that could include shutting down the popular messaging app Telegram.

It’s inevitable that the Kremlin will seek to promote any suggestion that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate—that’s been a staple of Russian propaganda for a decade. Putin has long referred to the 2014 revolution in Ukraine as a “coup.” For this reason, Zelensky’s statements about pro-Kremlin conspiracies will likely be seen by most Ukrainians as an attempt to intimidate his opponents. In other words, they could backfire.

The situation is full of grim irony. Regular power transitions were one of the achievements of Ukrainian democracy, setting it apart from most other post-Soviet countries, particularly Russia and Belarus. It’s unsurprising that even the slightest threat to this achievement is enough to send shockwaves through both Ukrainian society and its political elite.
By:

Konstantin Skorkin

Ukraine consolidates media:

https://www.npr.org/2022/07/08/11105774 ... itical-par
JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:

Ukraine has had to take extraordinary measures to fight Russia's invasion. Among them, the government has consolidated the country's television outlets and dissolved rival political parties. It says it needs to do this to maintain a united front in fighting Russia. NPR's Emily Feng reports from Kyiv.

EMILY FENG, BYLINE: Before the war, Ukraine had a dizzying array of television news stations. But in March, President Zelenskyy decided to consolidate them into one 24-hour channel. But not all stations were included.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: (Non-English language spoken).

FENG: This is the swanky studio for Kyiv-based television station Priamyi, which means direct. It was once owned by former Ukrainian president and billionaire Petro Poroshenko. He was also a political competitor of Zelenskyy's, and Priamyi's reports have been excluded from the new national broadcast and most cable networks.

SVITLANA ORLOVSKA: (Through interpreter) We were switched off from digital broadcast and excluded from the national channel. We have not been provided any reasons for this.

FENG: This is Svitlana Orlovska, the executive producer. Before the war, she was concerned mostly with keeping her anchors happy and the shows running on time. Now she's worried about the network's survival.

ORLOVSKA: (Through interpreter) We do hope we can begin broadcasting again after Ukraine wins the war. But during the martial law, there are certain restrictions. We cannot oppose our exclusion.

FENG: Even before Russia invaded in February, some of Ukraine's opposition media outlet said they faced political pressure from President Zelenskyy's government. Volodymyr Mzhelskyi directs one of Ukraine's oldest television stations, Channel 5. It was also previously owned by former President Poroshenko, who sold his media holdings under a 2021 Ukrainian law.

VOLODYMYR MZHELSKYI: (Through interpreter) After Channel 5 was sold, the government suspected the sale was false and Poroshenko still controlled the station. We felt consistently pressure from institutions like the broadcast regulator. We have numerous lawsuits filed against us by current and former members of Parliament.

FENG: Why the government attention, I ask him.

MZHELSKYI: (Through interpreter) I think we were switched off because there was a fear that this time, we would not support the president's point of view.

FENG: Late last year, Zelenskyy announced Poroshenko was being investigated for treason, and this past March, 11 political parties were suspended and any of their elected members dismissed from office for being pro-Russian. Most were fringe, but one party had nearly 10% of seats in Ukraine's Parliament. Ukraine's minister of culture tells NPR Ukraine also had to take a stronger anti-Russian stance when it came to the country's media landscape.

OLEKSANDR TKACHENKO: During the last several years, we definitely realized what does it mean, Russian propagandistic machine. To be united in the time of war, it means that we need to coordinate our efforts.

FENG: And he characterized the lack of any opposition outlets from Ukraine's new national broadcast channel as simply a lack of space.

TKACHENKO: It's a tricky issue, how to include newcomers.

FENG: And Russian interference in Ukraine is a real problem, especially now that there's a hot war with Russia. Another political opponent, the pro-Russian billionaire Viktor Medvedchuk, was recently arrested and his business assets seized because of his close ties to Vladimir Putin. Viktoria Siumar is a member of Parliament and part of the same political party as Poroshenko, technically making her the opposition to Zelenskyy's party. But she stresses she's still a patriot.

VIKTORIA SIUMAR: (Through interpreter) Today I believe in Ukraine that there are no anti-government opposition forces. All Ukrainian politicians are united in opposition to Putin and Putin's Russia.

FENG: But she does have some complaints about Zelenskyy's government.

SIUMAR: (Through interpreter) The first difference is their attitude towards freedom of speech. We fiercely opposed the government on this.

FENG: Restrictions on these worry the opposition, namely that Zelenskyy is clearing out political rivals before the 2024 presidential election. Before the war, he was a deeply unpopular president.

ANDREAS UMLAND: I think there is such a danger of centralization of power or even authoritarian tendencies.

FENG: Andreas Umland is at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs. And he says an adversarial, highly personal party dynamic drives Ukrainian politics.

UMLAND: Parties disappear. New parties arrive. Parties transform. And often, the fate of a party is very much tied to the fate of the leader.

FENG: But despite the restrictions placed under martial law, Umland does not believe Ukraine will ultimately trend authoritarian.

UMLAND: Well, about this sort of now already established consensus in society that there should be always an opposition, that there should be different voices.

FENG: These questions have become only more important as Ukraine tries to join the European Union. Not only does it have to win a war against Russia, it'll have to prove it's a stable government with democratic institutions like a free press.

Emily Feng, NPR News, Kyiv.

And of course, there was the aforementioned Coup in 2014 which led to the current state of affairs, so... yeah. it's a Military Junta. A shitty, ineffective one praying for Reese Connor to come, but a junta nonetheless.

Also @Russia previous coups - lol, got me there I guess.

[The Sisko]

I am beginning to think that Russia knew about the attack but allowed it to happen so it could be used for political purposes, hence all the finger-pointing at Ukraine. Putin knows damn well Ukraine had nothing to do with it but that doesn't matter. All that matters is that he wins in Ukraine.

More likely, Russia didn't trust Western warnings

No shit. Two weeks before the terrorist attack, Putin called the Western warnings a provocation on state TV.
Ironically, turns out that his buddies from Iran warned Russia too.

and their Intelligence Services were too busy.

Yeah, they have their hands full with persecuting Russians.

Finally, Ukraine has become a dictatorship run by Zelensky and his Military Junta

And you say this because they're not organizing new presidential elections? In the middle of a full scale invasion, where the aggressor occupies 20 percent of the country, I don't think it's even possible to organize elections even if Ukraine wanted to.

So what are we talking about then? To keep Ukraine safe from its autocratic neighbor, we forced it into a situation where it would be at war, and now it's destroying it's own precarious and corrupt democracy while millions are displaced and hundreds of thousands die and this is the sane, preferable outcome to Russian oligarchs giving Ukraine $10 billion in 2014... WHY?

[Broomstick]

Because there is reason to believe that after a Russian take over of Ukraine the subsequent "purge" of elements Russia doesn't like would result in a blood bath of political and ethnic cleansing and the suppression of Ukrainian language, culture, history, and identity as the children are forcibly "Russified".

Apparently, there are many Ukrainians who'd rather die fighting than submit.

Hence... a war.

I'm not saying the Ukrainians are saints - of course they aren't - but they aren't fighting just for the shits and giggles or because some tough guy at the top told them to. I don't know why Ukraine has to have a perfectly uncorrupt government when no one else has one in order to receive support or have allies. For several nearby European countries they want to support Ukraine not because they love Ukraine or think the government is wonderful but rather because Ukraine is a buffer between them and Russia, and they fear Russia might come for them after it devours Ukraine which alone is a reason to support Ukraine regardless of what sort of government they have. As for the US... Russia is an adversary, and a war with Ukraine bleeds Russia of men and material and could weaken them, which is in the interests of the US. Rinse and repeat for a couple other countries backing Ukraine.

Ukraine has the option of surrendering to Russia any time they want to stop the war. Of course, that will have terrible consequences. NOT fighting the war in the first place would also have had terrible consequences. There never was a good option for Ukraine.