US Election 2024: Grumpy Old Men

[Soontir C'boath]

So you can shout Genocide Joe all you want. And you can be the most righteous corpse in the oven when they win.

The only reason you'd care about a "spoiler candidate" is if you think people's votes belong to YOUR candidate to begin with.

And unfortunately, that's not how people work and for the most part if you haven't noticed, most people choose to stay home. Go cry and yell at them.

It's simply amazing how well the Democratic party brainwashed people to blame other people rather than the party itself.

[Soontir C'boath]

Speaking of running a campaign to win, Latimer defeats two term incumbent Bowman with AIPAC's help spending a record breaking $14.5 million against him. What a fantastic message sent by the Democratic Party. Here I thought incumbents were suppose to be untouchable in the primaries. What gives?

George Latimer defeats Rep. Jamaal Bowman in hotly-contested NY district 16 primary, NBC News projects

George Latimer, a pro-Israel centrist, defeated U.S. Rep. Jamaal Bowman, of New York, on Tuesday in a Democratic primary that highlighted the party's deep divisions over the war in Gaza, NBC News projects.

With the victory, Latimer has almost certainly ousted one of the most liberal voices in Congress and one of its most outspoken critics of Israel. Bowman has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, where thousands of Palestinians have died in military strikes.

Latimer is a former state legislator who has served as Westchester County executive since 2018.

Bowman had been seeking a third term, representing a district in New York City's northern suburbs. His defeat is a blow to the party's progressive wing and a potential cautionary tale for candidates trying to shape their messaging around the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Latimer will be the prohibitive favorite to win in the general election. The district, which includes parts of Westchester and a small piece of the Bronx, is a Democratic stronghold.

[bilateralrope]

So you argue that a spoiler candidate is only a spoiler candidate if they work? Like if I try to rob a bank but don't get any money I'm not a bank robber?

Are you going to comply with DR5 ?

Because the only times I've heard people talking about Jill Stein this year have been:
- Having her on a list of people who are running for president. That always includes people who can be ignored because they don't even have enough support to be a spoiler.
- The lawsuit from the Nevada Democrats. Which again speaks to her lacking support from voters, because it looks like she didn't get enough to qualify for that ballot.

So do you have any evidence that she stands a chance of being a spoiler this year ?
Polling data would be good if you have it. Her results in 2020 might be useful if they show a trend.

Or are you going to make up BS analogies to avoid admitting that you don't have any ?


Oh and since you asked about spoiler candidates in Aus/NZ, I'll explain why they aren't much of a concern:

My understanding is that Australia uses IRV, which sounds like it would make a spoiler candidate difficult if not impossible.

New Zealand runs on MMP. A spoiler candidate for an electorate seat is possible, but it's not likely to do much. If you want to construct a scenario where a spoiler will matter, consider that a party needs 5% or the party vote or a single electorate win to get any seats. Then the party vote is the major determination of how many MPs they get. The government is formed by whichever coalition of parties gets a total of 50%+1 MPs.

Much better than the bullshit that is the US electoral college system.

[Gandalf]

Speaking of running a campaign to win, Latimer defeats two term incumbent Bowman with AIPAC's help spending a record breaking $14.5 million against him. What a fantastic message sent by the Democratic Party. Here I thought incumbents were suppose to be untouchable in the primaries. What gives?

The Dems don't like their progressives a whole lot, because they hold bold and problematic positions like "genocide is bad." Meanwhile more "centrist" candidates like Latimer are unlikely to make waves for Genocide Joe and his friends.

[LadyTevar]

Is anyone actually going to watch the debate tonight?

Because I'm not, there's nothing they're going to say that will change my opinion on Trump.

[Mr Bean]

Is anyone actually going to watch the debate tonight?

Because I'm not, there's nothing they're going to say that will change my opinion on Trump.

I am watching the debate tonight because I enjoy the horse race/competition part of politics who's up and who's down and why X did Y instead of Z.

Here's my first report
Joe Biden is fucking OLD, like as in he looks old, they both look old but Joe looks tired old.

Donald Trump is probably on some uppers here because he's way more high energy than normal. He's a little manic he reminds me of 2016 Donald not 2020 Donald

*Edit
Like you the debate tonight will not change my anti-Trump vote but holy hell so far this has not been Biden's debate. Trump is happly lying with every sentence and President Biden is slow and meandering in his answers, he's not fired up or angry or strident or strong he's just... up there.

[Mr Bean]

Also CNN is not muting the mikes so Donald is already talking over Biden.

[Gandalf]

Is anyone actually going to watch the debate tonight?

Because I'm not, there's nothing they're going to say that will change my opinion on Trump.

Owing to timezones it's the middle of the day here, but we'll be watching it when I get home.

Because if nothing else it's an amusing watch.

[Gandalf]

Looks like everyone lost, especially Biden.

According to CNN, unnamed people in the Democratic party now want Biden off the ticket. So that's amusing if it's in any way true.

[Soontir C'boath]

You know how Disney tried to play it safe with the Star Wars sequel trilogy, but ended up absolutely shitting the bed? Yea, that's Biden.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

They were pointing out that Biden has more to lose, as if that wasn't blatantly obvious- he's the fucking POTUS

[EnterpriseSovereign]

You know how Disney tried to play it safe with the Star Wars sequel trilogy, but ended up absolutely shitting the bed? Yea, that's Biden.

The same Disney who fired Gina Carano after she basically threw in her lot with the Republicans.

[Tribble]

Looks like everyone lost, especially Biden.

According to CNN, unnamed people in the Democratic party now want Biden off the ticket. So that's amusing if it's in any way true.

Wayyyy too late for that.

If Biden would ever seriously consider stepping down, he would have done so already. Like many politicians his ego would never allow him to voluntarily do that, party and country be damned.

We have a similar situation up here where despite losing a 30 year+ liberal seat to Conservatives in a by election and consistently abysmal poll numbers, our beloved leader Trudeau refuses to consider stepping down. Liberals will be lucky to survive as a party if he keeps that up all the way to the next election.

[Solauren]

Looks like everyone lost, especially Biden.

According to CNN, unnamed people in the Democratic party now want Biden off the ticket. So that's amusing if it's in any way true.

Wayyyy too late for that.

If Biden would ever seriously consider stepping down, he would have done so already. Like many politicians his ego would never allow him to voluntarily do that, party and country be damned.

We have a similar situation up here where despite losing a 30 year+ liberal seat to Conservatives in a by election and consistently abysmal poll numbers, our beloved leader Trudeau refuses to consider stepping down. Liberals will be lucky to survive as a party if he keeps that up all the way to the next election.

That's actually a good, and bad at the same time comparison.
Good in it shows a good match on ego/stubborness.
Bad on the fact that demographics change, as do the 'borders' a seat covers, so no matter what, you occasionally get seats 'suddenly' changing sides. (More so when the person that held the seat retires and it's two new candidates. Often people will vote more for the candidate then the party)

[Soontir C'boath]

You know how Disney tried to play it safe with the Star Wars sequel trilogy, but ended up absolutely shitting the bed? Yea, that's Biden.

The same Disney who fired Gina Carano after she basically threw in her lot with the Republicans.

Um, ok? Nobody cares about Gina Carano, but I guess that's in line with what the Democratic party actually accomplishes.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

You know how Disney tried to play it safe with the Star Wars sequel trilogy, but ended up absolutely shitting the bed? Yea, that's Biden.

The same Disney who fired Gina Carano after she basically threw in her lot with the Republicans.

Um, ok? Nobody cares about Gina Carano, but I guess that's in line with what the Democratic party actually accomplishes.

She parroted the Trump narrative about such things as Jan 6 and COVID vaccinations and she's got Elon Musk paying her legal fees for suing Disney. The actual text of her lawsuit is hilarious
Could Biden be replaced as the Democratic presidential candidate and how would that work?

Joe Biden's halting performance at the first televised debate of the US election has invited an unwelcomed question for the Democratic Party - did they choose the wrong man?

At the top of the 81-year-old's agenda for the debate was to put to rest voter concerns about his age and turn the election into a referendum on Trump. But, if anything, his performance only exacerbated voters' fears.

His manner during the CNN debate sparked panic within his own party and some are now actively discussing something what would usually be unspeakable - replacing him on the ballot paper.

But even if the Democrats wanted to, can they?

ITV News takes a look if Biden could be forced out, would he withdraw himself and who could replace him.

Can he be forced out?

Neither of the two US parties have ever tried to force an election candidate to drop out of a presidential election.

In order to force Biden out the door, the Democrats would need to overturn the results of the state primaries.

The vote, which took place earlier this year, confirmed Biden as a virtually unopposed pick for November's election.

Under current Democratic Party rules, it would be almost impossible to replace Biden without his cooperation or without the party officials being willing to rewrite its rules at the August national convention.

There are realistically two ways that Biden could be replaced.

First, a US president can be replaced under the 25th amendment, if he dies or reigns then the vice president takes over.

The president can also make the VP the acting president if they are "unable to discharge the power and duties of his office", such as when Biden had a colonoscopy in 2021 and powers were temporarily transferred to Kamala Harris.

To block the president's return in this situation, and keep the VP in power, there would need to be a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress to keep the VP in power.

Secondly, would be at the convention where Party rules state: "Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them".

However, while the delegates are pledged to vote for Biden, this would not prevent votes against, although this is something that is very unlikely to happen.

To win a presidential nomination, you need the majority of your party's 4,000 delegates to back you. Biden won around 3,900 at the primaries.

Can he withdraw himself?

Realistically, the only scenario that would enable the Democrats to choose a new candidate to take on Trump would be for Biden to withdraw.

Biden has repeatedly dismissed the notion of stepping down but if he did abandon his campaign, the 81-year-old would need to release his delegates from their obligation to vote for him at August's convention.

With no clear candidate being in place to step into the president's shoes, such a U-turn could destablise the Democratic party.

If Biden were to abruptly leave the race, conservative groups have suggested they will file lawsuits around the country, potentially questioning the legality of the Democratic candidate's name on the ballot.

Could Vice President Kamala Harris replace Biden?

If Biden was to step down voluntarily before the election, vice president Kamala Harris would become president until the end of his administration. If he was to quit after being re-elected, she would also become president for the second term.

But as Biden's running mate, she cannot step up to fill the Democratic candidacy by default.

If Biden opts to abandon his re-election campaign, Harris would likely join other top Democratic candidates looking to replace him.

But that would probably create a scenario where she and others end up lobbying individual state delegations at the convention for their support.

That hasn't happened for Democrats since 1960, when John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson jockeyed for votes during that year’s Democratic convention in Los Angeles.

Harris's poll numbers have been consistently worse than Biden's throughout their administration.

Who could replace Biden aside from Harris?

The California governor talked down the possibility of replacing Biden on the ballot to reporters in the spin room on Thursday evening.

The 56-year-old said any alternative to the incumbent president was "nonsensical speculation".

However, he is widely thought to hold ambitions of making it to the Oval Office, and last year drew the ire of the Biden administration after holding a primetime debate with Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

The debate was thought by some as the pair putting themselves in the shop window and previewing the 2028 presidential contest.

Gretchen Whitmer. On the shortlist for Biden's VP pick in 2020, the Michigan governor cruised to re-election in 2022.

She has led the Democrats in Michigan to strong midterms and has been credited with helping the party to flip both houses in the state's legislature.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Biden did far better in a rally in North Carolina today, leading many to wonder where this Joe was last night

[Tribble]

Looks like everyone lost, especially Biden.

According to CNN, unnamed people in the Democratic party now want Biden off the ticket. So that's amusing if it's in any way true.

Wayyyy too late for that.

If Biden would ever seriously consider stepping down, he would have done so already. Like many politicians his ego would never allow him to voluntarily do that, party and country be damned.

We have a similar situation up here where despite losing a 30 year+ liberal seat to Conservatives in a by election and consistently abysmal poll numbers, our beloved leader Trudeau refuses to consider stepping down. Liberals will be lucky to survive as a party if he keeps that up all the way to the next election.

That's actually a good, and bad at the same time comparison.
Good in it shows a good match on ego/stubborness.
Bad on the fact that demographics change, as do the 'borders' a seat covers, so no matter what, you occasionally get seats 'suddenly' changing sides. (More so when the person that held the seat retires and it's two new candidates. Often people will vote more for the candidate then the party)

True, but (without trying to derail this thread too much) it’s dangerous for a political party to assume that it’s just because of demographic change and a new candidate, particularly when polls have been lacklustre.

As I’m sure you’re well aware, the Ontario Liberals were wiped out as a party when Kathleen Wynne refused to step down during similar circumstances. Polls indicated “get the hell out” for a long time, but she refused, no one had the guts to call her out on it, and well, we saw what happened. In comparison, Dalton Mcguinty, her immediate predecessor, knew with his tanking polls and scandals he wouldn’t win, and had the decency to step aside before it was too late so the Liberal party could get a successor in place.

It’s clear that Biden should not have run again, yet here he is wrecking their chances in another bid for power. Dude has already been a long serving senator, a vice president (twice) and president, is that not enough? If he really had integrity he could have acknowledged his limits and left office with head held high and reputation intact. Instead, odds are he may very well end up being known as the senile old man who refused to step aside for the sake of the party and good of the country, and practically handing over the presidency to Trump 2.0.

Democrats are kind of screwed at this stage because they have very little time to try and find a successor, even if Biden did choose to voluntarily step aside (Not that I’m expecting him to).

This campaign basically boils down to whether enough Americans see the danger of Trump 2.0 and/or hate him enough that they’re willing to vote for Biden even though he’s well past it. Not exactly encouraging, is it?

[Elfdart]

You know how Disney tried to play it safe with the Star Wars sequel trilogy, but ended up absolutely shitting the bed? Yea, that's Biden.

Political Martyball at its finest!

It's hilarious watching all the political and media hacks who foisted Biden on the public four years ago now saying he's got to go. As bad as he is, Biden is the least awful option the Dems have.

If Biden drops out (or drops dead) and Harris gets the nod, Trump will win in a laugher. She's not well-liked and aside from sleeping with Willie Brown, has no accomplishments to speak of. However, if she's shunted aside for another candidate it will be construed as a slap in the face for black women -the group that turned out in record numbers and put Biden over in 2020.

[Ralin]

Does anyone have proof that black women collectively would demand Harris as the candidate if Biden dropped? I know that's a vague thing to ask for, but there's a lot of antipathy towards her on the left and I feel like this is a pretty big assumption.

[Elfdart]

Can the Democrats afford to lose even a small percentage of them? Several of the groups that helped him squeak by in 2020 are already demoralized: younger voters, Hispanics, Muslims, Indigenous peoples. Dumping a black woman in a backroom bargain will most likely have major repercussions -and not just from the K-hive.

[Ralin]

Would they lose more than the percentage who refuse to vote for her because she's a cop? Because I've seen a whole lot more comments about that than her representing black women.

I'm not ruling it out but it's non-obvious enough that I'd want to see some sort of proof either way.

[Solauren]

As I’m sure you’re well aware, the Ontario Liberals were wiped out as a party when Kathleen Wynne refused to step down during similar circumstances. Polls indicated “get the hell out” for a long time, but she refused, no one had the guts to call her out on it, and well, we saw what happened. In comparison, Dalton Mcguinty, her immediate predecessor, knew with his tanking polls and scandals he wouldn’t win, and had the decency to step aside before it was too late so the Liberal party could get a successor in place.

Much better comparison.

Trudeau is not there yet. While I doubt the Federal Liberals will win a majority government, I can see them winning a minority and working with the NDP.

Unless Trump dies or otherwise becomes incapacitated to the point where he can't communicate effectively, does or says something so shocking it even shakes his supporters, or gets arrested and yanks off the ballot in enough 'Red' States to make a difference, Biden is either going to lose, or win by the absolute skin of his teeth and we'll have another Jan 6 situation, and that might spiral.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I hope the European leaders are taking notice and are drawing up plans to continue supplying aid because if Trump wins he'll cut off all aid to Ukraine.

[bilateralrope]

Unless Trump dies or otherwise becomes incapacitated to the point where he can't communicate effectively, does or says something so shocking it even shakes his supporters, or gets arrested and yanks off the ballot in enough 'Red' States to make a difference, Biden is either going to lose, or win by the absolute skin of his teeth and we'll have another Jan 6 situation, and that might spiral.

The difference is that Trump won't be in a position to hinder the response if someone tries a repeat of Jan 6. So it will go very differently if someone attempts it.


Also, I came across this article:

Biden claims at posh NJ fundraiser that his debate debacle impressed undecided voters

By Social Links forKatherine Donlevy
Published June 30, 2024, 12:21 a.m. ET

President Biden went to a posh fundraiser at a New Jersey mansion Saturday and reportedly claimed to the crowd that his gaffe-filled, disastrous debate against Donald Trump actually converted undecided voters to his camp.

The 81-year-old Commander-in-Chief made the dubious declaration at a private event at the home of New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, which his wife announced had raised $3.7 million, NJ.com reported.

While Biden admitted to the small crowd that his debate performance was lackluster — prompting several major newspapers to call on him to bow out of his reelection bid — he said voters interpreted the event differently.

“Research during the debate shows us converting more undecided voters than Trump did, in large part because of his conduct on Jan. 6,” Biden told the several dozen people at the party, the news site said.

“People remember the bad things during his presidency.”

Independent voters weren’t the only ones Biden claimed to have won the support of — he also told the New Jersey crowd that his polling numbers among Democrats moved up after the debate.

The notion flies in the face of several surveys released in the last two days, including one commissioned by The Post that saw Biden’s support dwindle after taking on Trump.

“I didn’t have a great night, but I’m going to be fighting harder,” Biden told the crowd, the report said.

First Lady Jill Biden tried to assuage the supporters, saying her presidential husband had admitted his poor performance as soon as he came off the stage.

“You know, Jill, I don’t know what happened. I didn’t feel that great,” she called him telling her.

The private fundraiser was the second of the day that the Bidens attended.

Earlier, the couple rubbed elbows with mega-donors at the Hamptons home of hedge-fund billionaire Barry Rosenstein and his wife Lizanne.

Celebrities like Sarah Jessica Parker and Matthew Broderick, as well as business leaders Loews Hotels CEO Jonathan Tisch and his socialite wife Lizzie, were said to have been in attendance — and to have shelled out as much as $250,000 to attend the party.

During the star-studded event, a plane toting a streamer reading “BI-DONE!” soared across the sky.

Research performed by Biden's team say it improved his chances. Surveys done by others say otherwise. We probably won't know for sure until we get polling results. Last I heard, it takes about a week for an event to show in polling data.

The best I can hope for at this point is for Biden to win and appoint people who will invoke the 25th amendment to remove him if necessary.