Brexit and not very united kingdom politics II

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Hung parliament, here we come!

[Juubi Karakuchi]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... abour-lead

Sunak suffers poll blow as levelling-up cash-for-votes row erupts
New poll gives Labour its biggest lead since Liz Truss meltdown as ‘Tory towns’ gain most from new funds
Jon Ungoed-Thomas and Toby Helm
Sat 1 Jun 2024 19.51 BST

The Tory general election campaign hit more trouble on Saturday as Rishi Sunak faced accusations of using levelling up funds to win votes and Labour opened its biggest poll lead since the disastrous premiership of Liz Truss.

As Sunak tried to fire up his ­party’s campaign before the first crucial TV debate with Keir Starmer on Tuesday, it emerged that more than half of the 30 towns each promised £20m of regeneration funding on Saturday were in constituencies won by Tory MPs at the last election.

Some 17 of the £20m pots went to towns in areas won by the Conservatives in 2019, although two of those were no longer held by Conservative MPs when the general election was called.

Just eight awards were made to towns in Labour seats, although many of the party’s strongholds tend to be in more deprived areas in need of levelling up money.

The funding pledge led to accusations from Sunak’s opponents of “pork barrel” politics, while those involved in regeneration of the north said the announcement was more about winning votes than levelling up.

The row came as the latest Opinium poll for the Observer on Sunday gives Labour a 20-point lead – the highest level it has recorded since Truss was briefly running the country.

This is despite Labour having endured a torrid week on the election trail and days of infighting over whether veteran Diane Abbott should be allowed to stand again.

Labour is on 45% – up four points on last weekend, while the Conservatives are down two points on 25%. Reform is up on one on 11%, the Lib Dems down two on 8%, and the Greens down one on 6%.

The poll also showed more people (45%) thought the Tories’ big announcement last weekend – the reintroduction of a form of mandatory national service for 18-year-olds – was a bad idea than thought it was a good one (35%).

Some 28% said their opinion of Sunak had become more negative since the start of the campaign, against 18% who said it had become more positive. By contrast 28% said their view of Starmer had become more positive against 18% who said it was now more negative.

Henri Murison, chief executive of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, an independent body representing business and civic leaders in the north of England, criticised the regeneration announcement. “This is nothing to do with raising prosperity. This is only about trying to win a few votes at election time,” he said.

Murison added that a separate announcement last weekend by the government to abolish the UK shared prosperity fund, which replaced EU structural funds, to help fund the national service scheme, had in reality been the last “nail in the coffin” for levelling up. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has found the Conservative proposals would leave the UK’s poorest regions millions of pounds worse off.

Sunak said on Saturday that the party had allocated more than £15bn to overlooked areas across the UK since 2019 and had used established methodology to select the areas that would benefit. A Tory spokesman said the party was “providing more funding to the most deprived towns in the areas with the highest need of levelling up”.

The towns in Tory areas include Gainsborough in Lincolnshire. Edward Leigh, its veteran Conservative candidate, said money had been pledged to the town “following our lobbying”. He said it would be “the greatest boost the town has ever had”.

Justin Madders, who retained the seat of Ellesmere Port and Neston in the north-west of England for Labour in 2019, said “given their monumental failure to deliver on levelling up over the last four years, why would anyone believe this is going to make a difference now?”

Lib Dem Treasury spokesman Sarah Olney said: “It will take more than this desperate attempt at pork barrel politics to win over voters after years of failure on the NHS and cost of living.”

Starmer, in an interview for the Observer with his biographer Tom Baldwin, attempted to draw a line under the row over Abbott’s candidacy by lavishing praise on the veteran. “Although I disagree with some of what she says … I have actually got more respect for Diane than she probably realises,” he said.

Referring to Tuesday’s debate on ITV, Starmer suggested he would not be trying to land a knockout blow on Sunak, but was going to “keep it calm and measured”. He said: “Having carried this ming vase around for a while now, I am going to avoid the temptation to start juggling it.”

Starmer said Donald Trump’s 34 convictions last week were “off the charts and more the kind of thing you would find in fictional books than real life.” But he said it will be necessary to work with whoever is in the White House. “When you are serious about being in power you have to work with whoever other countries have as their leader.”

Labour renewed the row between the two main parties over tax, saying that chancellor Jeremy Hunt must rule out increasing VAT on things including food and children’s clothes, after he seemed to leave the door open to raising it.

In a recent interview with the Daily Telegraph, Hunt said the Tories would not raise “the main rate of VAT” for the duration of the next parliament. But the main rate does not apply to essential goods and services that are taxed at the zero or reduced rates of VAT.

Emphasis mine. This comes just after news that Diane Abbott will, apparently, be allowed to stand after all.

[His Divine Shadow]

Apparently Keir Starmer is such a charisma vacuum that Sunak came off more favorably in their last debate, which was by all means supposed to be a slam dunk for Labour since all they ever have to do is point at 14 years of Tory government.

Anyway have some sweet lib dem nostalgia that encapsulates the party gestalt:

[His Divine Shadow]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggr3pg4ljo

Labour drops legal action against Corbyn-era staff

The Labour Party has abandoned longstanding legal action against five former members of staff who have been accused of "conspiring" against Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.

The action is estimated to have cost the party millions of pounds, which critics said could otherwise have been spent on the general election campaign.

The five included two key figures from the Jeremy Corbyn era – ex- director of communications Seumas Milne and Mr Corbyn’s former chief of staff Karie Murphy.

They were accused of leaking a controversial report soon after Sir Keir became the Labour leader in 2020.

A former shadow cabinet member – who did not wish to identified – told the BBC the party should have dropped the legal action earlier.

He said: "This is a huge embarrassment for the party, which has wasted eye-watering sums which could have made the difference in key seats in this election."

Labour had said previously it had been confident of its case.

The most recent documents presented in open court last autumn showed that Labour had spent £1.5m on legal action, and estimated it would spend nearly £900,000 more.

The party's final costs are likely to be higher, as these figures don’t reflect the full cost of the litigation.

But it’s not clear if the party will meet the costs of those it claimed had leaked the controversial report.

In a statement to the court, Labour officials claimed that the five "entered into a conspiracy to use unlawful means… to provide a copy (or copies) of the Report to the press" to damage the party "under the leadership of its then new leader, Keir Starmer".

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Let's not forget that Nigel Farage has thrown his hat into the ring. Again. This is as accurate now as it was then.

[Crazedwraith]

Starmer accuses Sunak of 'Jeremy Corbyn-style' manifesto

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has accused the Conservatives of producing a “Jeremy Corbyn style manifesto".

Referencing the former leader of his own party, Sir Keir said the Tories had drawn up a document that would "load everything into the wheelbarrow" without explaining how to pay for it.

Sir Keir served in Mr Corbyn's shadow cabinet but defended his criticism saying: "If you lose that badly, you don't look at the electorate... you look at your party and say 'You need to change'."

The Labour leader's comments came ahead of Rishi Sunak launching his manifesto at the Silverstone race track in Northamptonshire.

Mr Sunak said his manifesto showed that "our economy has truly turned a corner" and that his party's policies would ensure "more British success stories".

He said the measures were "fully funded and would result in lower borrowing in 2029-30".

“Do not forget that Keir Starmer is asking you to hand him a blank cheque when he hasn’t said what he’ll buy with it and how much it is going to cost you," he added.



Mr Sunak's pledges include a new Help to Buy scheme to support first time buyers to purchase a home and a 2p cut in employee National Insurance.

Asked if he would match the Conservatives' National Insurance tax cut, Sir Keir said the "money's not there".

He accused the Conservatives of using a promise to tackle tax avoidance to fund "at least four different propositions" adding: "That's why I say it's a Jeremy Corbyn-style manifesto."

Mr Corbyn's manifesto for the 2019 general election was a wide-ranging and ambitious proposal, including promises of free broadband for all and nationalisation of energy firms and the water industry.

At the time Sir Keir, who was then the shadow Brexit secretary, praised the manifesto saying it offered "real change" and "an ambition to meet the needs" of the country.

When he ran for the Labour leadership in 2020, he also said he would not "trash" the record of Mr Corbyn.

Asked on Tuesday why he was now attacking a manifesto he previously supported, Sir Keir said it was Labour's defeat in the 2019 election that persuaded him to "change" the party.

Mr Corbyn has previously said Sir Keir should not "diss the past or diss his involvement in it".

Responding to Sir Keir's criticism of Mr Corbyn, the left-wing campaign group Momentum said: "Labour's 2019 manifesto was fully costed - Keir should know, he stood on it as a member of the shadow cabinet.

"How about stopping attacking your own side during an election?"

As well as comparing Mr Sunak to Jeremy Corbyn, Sir Keir also accused the prime minister of pursuing a similar approach to his predecessor Liz Truss.

He warned that “unfunded” commitments could crash the economy and that “if you lose control of the economy it’s working people who pay the price.”

Reacting to the manifesto, Paul Johnson, head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies public spending think tank, said, external he had a "degree of scepticism" over the "uncertain, unspecific and apparently victimless savings" that would pay for tax cuts.

He also said the party "remained silent" on where public spending cuts, implied by the Budget in March, would fall.

Earlier this year, the think tank accused both Labour and the Conservatives of a "conspiracy of silence" over the spending cuts or tax rises that would need to be made following the next election.

The SNP's Drew Hendry said: “The Tories really should have spared themselves the bother of producing a manifesto plan because we all know the public plan is to boot them out of office in a matter of weeks.

"People deserve to know whether the Labour Party will simply carry on where the Tories left off when it comes to cuts to our public services."

The Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper said the Conservative manifesto was not "worth the paper it's printed on".

"No one will believe anything they're promising today," she said.

Reform UK chair Richard Tice described the manifesto as a "car crash" and said "no one is listening".

The Greens have accused the other parties of "silence" on climate issues. Co-leader Carla Denyer said her party were "clear that investing in climate change is a priority".

I really fucking tired of Starmer trying to sell himself by shitting on his own party.

[Zaune]

https://www.wired.com/story/ai-candidat ... iament-uk/

As the United Kingdom heads toward its elections next month, the country is seeing its first instance of a new kind of politician: an AI candidate. AI Steve, an avatar of real-life Steven Endacott, a Brighton-based businessman, is running for Parliament as an Independent.

Voters will be able to cast their ballots for AI Steve, as well as ask policy positions or raise issues of their own. AI Steve will then incorporate suggestions and requests into its platform.

Endacott will be the in-person representative attending meetings and parliamentary sessions on behalf of AI Steve. He says that he sees AI Steve as a way to allow for a more direct form of democracy. “We are actually, I think, reinventing politics using AI as a technology base, as a copilot, not to replace politicians but to really connect them into their audience, their constituency,” says Endacott.

Currently, AI Steve is mistakenly listed on the ballot as Steve AI, which Endacott is working to correct.

AI Steve was designed by Neural Voice, an AI voice company of which Endacott is the chair. According to Jeremy Smith, the company’s cofounder, AI Steve can have up to 10,000 conversations at once. “A key element is creating your own database of information,” says Smith. “And how to inject customer data into it.”

The idea for AI Steve came from Endacott’s own frustration with trying to enter politics in order to advocate for issues he cared about. “I’m very concerned about the environment. We need a lot of change in government to actually help control climate change,” he says. “The only way to do that is to stop talking to the outside and get inside the tent and start actually changing policy.” When Endacott attempted to stand for office in years past, he said he felt like it was all about party jockeying and worrying about which seats or districts were “safe” rather than responding to the needs of real people.

AI Steve, he claims, will be different. AI Steve will transcribe and analyze conversations it has with voters and put issues of policy forward to “validators,” or regular people who can indicate whether they care about an issue or want to see a certain policy enacted.

Endacott says that his team plans to reach out to commuters at the Brighton train stop, about an hour outside of London, asking them to fill out short policy surveys by email on their commutes to or from the city to help fill this role.

“Having the voting system of validators to actually check those policies to make sure they’re common sense, and also in control of saying, ‘In Parliament, we want you to vote this way,’ just makes sense to me,” says Endacott.

AI Steve has only been live for a day or so, but Endacott and Smith say that the primary concerns expressed by people contacting AI Steve have been about the conflict in Palestine and local issues such as trash collection.

While Endacott says that he expects his own opinions or policy preferences may differ from those of AI Steve at some point, he says he is committed to voting in line with the constituent preferences as expressed through AI Steve.

“Surely in a democracy, it's what your constituents want,” he says. “I know that it sounds so obvious, that a politician should be told what to do by his constituents. And if he doesn't like it, tough luck. Get out of the job.”

Yeah, rhis might as well be a thing, I guess.

[bilateralrope]

Someone is going to have fun getting that AI to say dumb things and then telling everyone about what it promised.

[Zaune]

Probably wouldn't be hard to find a biological candidate who'd said something that sounded as bad or worse out of context.

[bilateralrope]

Can you think of any candidates, at a similar level as this one, who has said things dumber than the recent stupidity from Google's AI ?

Its experimental "AI Overviews" tool has told some users searching for how to make cheese stick to pizza better that they could use "non-toxic glue".
The search engine's AI-generated responses have also said geologists recommend humans eat one rock per day.

In one baffling example, a reporter Googling whether they could use gasoline to cook spaghetti faster was told "no... but you can use gasoline to make a spicy spaghetti dish" and given a recipe.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Well I've cast my vote. Neither main party impressed me so I went with the Lib Dems

[Crazedwraith]

starmer does not impress me. Especially kowtowing to JKR about being more transphobic.

OTOH my seat has been a safe Tory seat for decades and I'm going to vote tactically just to have done all I can to get them out.

[Zaune]

Going with Labour, grudgingly, because I like our local candidate. But if Starmer actually tries to appease JKR on this issue then the CLP can find a new LGBT officer.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Exit poll shows a Labour landslide.

Conservatives: 131
Labour: 410
Liberal Democrats: 61
SNP: 10
Reform UK: 13
Plaid Cymru: 4
Greens: 2

First result is a Labour hold in Sunderland South.

For some reason, the BBC is interviewing Jacob Rees-Mogg. He's not looking well.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

A historic wipeout for the Tories, to the surprise of nobody. Though if Reform gets the projected baker's dozen seats then Nigel Farage will be even more insufferable than he is already

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Jeremy Corbyn just retained his seat as an independent. And Farage has won in his constituency so we'll be seeing more of him

[AniThyng]

So did Rishi keep his seat?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Yes, he did.

[His Divine Shadow]

Cool, Corbyn kept his seat, Mogg and Truss both lost theirs.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

Current results care of the Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng ... ve-in-full

Labour: 412
Conservative: 120
Liberal Democrat: 71
Scottish National Party: 9
Sinn Féin: 7
Others: 7
Democratic Unionist Party: 5
Reform UK: 4
Green: 4
Plaid Cymru: 4
Social Democratic and Labour Party: 2
Alliance: 1
Ulster Unionist Party: 1
Workers Party of Britain: 0
Alba: 0

So the Exit Poll was broadly accurate. Tories were all but wiped out, and the Liberal Democrats cleaned up nicely in the south. SNP took a beating up in Scotland; whether this will repeat in May 2026 is not clear. Reform got only 4 seats compared to the predicted 13, while the Greens doubled their prediction with 4 seats; an all-time high.

Funnily enough, this reflects 2019 albeit in reverse. Labour's vote share only went up by 1.7%, while the Tories fell by 19.9%; and Reform's share stayed the same. It looks like a lot of Tory voters stayed at home.

Next up? Well, Starmer and Labour will be in power, with a hell of a lot to prove. Labour's mandate might have feet of clay, but I suspect it will hold up until 2029; barring something weird happening.

Sunak may try to stay on as Tory leader, but I don't fancy his chances. The frontrunner to replace him looks to be Braverman, but it's early days yet. If she wins, she'll at the very least drag the Tories further to the right; though an alliance with Reform is not a given.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Question is now, how long before Farage and Reform crash and burn?

[Gandalf]

Coverage from Australia.

Australia's Greatest News Source

The revolution has finally arrived in the United Kingdom.

After decades of being killed by a thousand economically rationalist cuts, the people of Britain have risen up to overthrow the ruling class.

This comes after a dramatic election result saw a centrist barrister from a Grammar school elected to the top job.

Billionaires have been seen fleeing from their estates and London mansions this evening, with Labour leader Keir Starmer looking set to sweep to a resounding victory.

Exit polls from voting booths suggest Starmer’s Labour party are predicted to win a whopping 410 seats, securing them a huge majority and handing the Tory Party their worst defeat in a hundred years.

The Tories are expected to only win a 130ish of the 650 seats in British Parliament, which is not a lot for a major party that has won the last 5 elections.

The election of Starmer, who stands for reducing waiting times for hospitals and “no tax surprises” for National Insurance, VAT, income and corporation tax has no been heralded as the dawn of a new age.

With a vague promise to build 1.5 million homes by making developers give locals ‘first dibs’ the toffs who run the classist Utopia of the Britain have been faced with the day they’ve been fretting for so long.

“These Tories, they are going to be eating cake,” laughed one resident of the Kingdom where 1 in 5 people live below the poverty line and 14.4 million people don’t know where they next meal may be coming from.

Running off the back of a “I’m not the heir to a rich brown tech billionaire,” Starmer has yet to confirmed which of his ground breaking policies he is going to implement first.

“I hope he focuses on keeping corporations tax the same first!”

“Get the AKs out baby, probably because we’ll be off to war with some country like we were last time we had a smug centrist in power.”

“But seriously, maybe he will repeal the Rwanda plan, but as we’ve seen with these centrist major parties, locking up and torturing Brown people provides a nice distraction for the lack on inaction on any of the issues that actually effect ordinary people.”

More to come.

[Tribble]

As my friend put it, no matter what they’re f*cked, but they could choose between Just the Tip (Liberal Democrats), Halfway There (Labour), or Balls Deep (Conservatives / Reform).

Guess voters chose Halfway There this time

[Zaune]

At least this lot are broadly committed to the idea that the country slowly falling into literal ruin is bad for business.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

That tends to happen when you vote to destroy trade with the country's largest market