Israel orders mass 'evacuation' from Northern Gaza, humanitarian crisis certain to ensue

[Broomstick]

You're delusional if you think Trump would be any better for anyone. Trump is best buddies with Netanyahu, and Netanyahu can probably play Trump like a fiddle and get whatever he wants.

Unfortunately the choice in November is between those two old men.

There are also the options to stay home or vote third party, since neither major candidate is catering to the "genocide is bad" crowd.

Voting third party is generally as useless as staying home.

This may surprise you, but as horrific as the war crimes in Israel it's not the only life-or-death matter that will be affected by who winds up in the Oval Office.

But sure, let's play your game.

Chase Oliver (Libertarian) called the current mess a genocide. He is the ONLY 3rd party on enough state ballots to actually be able to win. So, OK, he's good for you on that issue but he's rabidly pro-gun which is killing tens of thousands of Americans so may be of more immediate important to people actually living (or trying to) in the US. And he's entirely laissez-faire on climate change, which stands to kill even more people world wide. Oh, and he wants to end all US aid to Ukraine so voting for him to end the Gaza-Israel genocide might result in a Ukrainian genocide so that's a wash. Electing him might save the Gazans (which is definitely good for those people) but it's going to suck for Ukraine and a bunch of other people. I dunno, you tell me - is exchanging one genocide for another a good deal? Yeah, it sort of sucks all around.

Jill Stein (Green) is the only one of the lot in any way pro-Palestinian but hasn't managed to get onto enough ballots to have any chance of winning. Her campaign is doomed from the start. Also, I am unable to vote for her because she has not managed to satisfy the Indiana election board and get on the ballot. Maybe she can get a couple more states to give her even a minimal chance of winning but unlikely at this point. Other than the Libertarians she's the only 3rd Party with any chance of doing that at this point.

RFK, Jr. is openly advocating Israel do more of the same, only harder. Except he has not managed to get on sufficient state ballots to have any possibility of winning.

Cornel West is largely in the "both sides are bad" camp. Not sure he'd do a damn thing, either. Oh, and hasn't managed to get on more than 5 state ballots so, again, no chance of winning.

To hell with it - here's the wiki on US third party candidates. The upshot is that only the Libertarian candidate has any possibility of winning, and is the only one I'd even be able to vote for as he's the only one on the Indiana ballot.

The ONLY chance I have of my little drop in the ocean having any impact whatsoever is to choose between Biden and Trump. Frankly, I don't like either. It would very much be a matter of voting for the lesser evil.

Nor am I going to "stay home" because that would remove my voice in State and local elections where my vote is far less diluted and might actually be able to create a positive change, even if only on a smaller scale than Federal.

[Khaat]

The time for "protest votes" is during primaries. A third-party with virtually ZERO support in the House or Senate is a non-starter administration.

[Rogue 9]

Why is anyone still talking about electoral politics as a factor stopping Biden from halting aid?

Because it is. Overall the American electorate still polls in support for Israel.

[Ralin]

Why is anyone still talking about electoral politics as a factor stopping Biden from halting aid?

ABecause it is. Overall the American electorate still polls in support for Israel.

Doesn't matter when Biden the self-described Zionist is personally several steps past the general public in terms of his support for Israel and most of the opposition to Israel is coming from within his own party and supporters anyway.

[Broomstick]

The time for "protest votes" is during primaries. A third-party with virtually ZERO support in the House or Senate is a non-starter administration.

^ This.

For example, I could see an argument for me choosing to vote for Nikki Haley in the Indiana Republican Primary even though she had withdrawn from the race by the time the Indiana primary took place as a "not Trump" vote within the party. Much like in Michigan many Democrats essentially voted "not Biden".

[LadyTevar]

Israel confirms deaths of 4 hostages

Israel's military says it has established the deaths of four more people abducted by Hamas on 7 October.
It says the four were killed while together during an Israeli operation in Khan Younis in southern Gaza, adding that their bodies were still being held by the militants.

The men were named as British-Israeli Nadav Popplewell, 51, Chaim Peri, 79, Yoram Metzger, 80, and Amiram Cooper, 85.

IDF spokesman Rear Adm Daniel Hagari said intelligence gathered in recent weeks had led to the assessment.
"We assess that the four of them were killed while together in the area of Khan Younis during our operation there against Hamas," he said, without giving further details.
Last month, Hamas claimed that Nadav Popplewell had died in an Israeli strike in April. The UK Foreign Office said it was investigating, but there was no confirmation of his death until now.

[Gandalf]

As to not derail this with election stuff, I posted in the sticky.

[Rogue 9]

NPR

Israel says it has rescued 4 hostages held in Gaza
Updated June 8, 2024 8:17 AM ET

Hannah Bloch

TEL AVIV, Israel — Israel announced on Saturday the rescue of four hostages from central Gaza in a "complex special daytime operation in Nuseirat," where they’d been held after being kidnapped from Israel by Hamas-led militants during the Oct. 7 attack.

The rescued hostages were identified as Noa Argamani, 25, Almog Meir Jan, 21, Andrey Kozlov, 27, and Shlomi Ziv, 40.

In a joint statement, Israel’s military, police and Shin Bet domestic security agency said: “They are in good medical condition and have been transferred to a hospital in Israel "for further medical examinations.”

Hamas-led militants kidnapped some 240 people on Oct. 7. With the rescue of these four hostages today, 120 remain in captivity -- about a third of whom are believed dead.

Israel's Hostages Family Forum called the rescue operation "heroic."

In a statement, the group said: "The Israeli government must remember its commitment to bring back all 120 hostages still held by Hamas - the living for rehabilitation, the murdered for burial.

"We continue to call upon the international community to apply the necessary pressure on Hamas to accept the proposed deal and release the other 120 hostages held in captivity; every day there is a day too far."

This is a developing story and will be updated.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

NPR

Israel says it has rescued 4 hostages held in Gaza
Updated June 8, 2024 8:17 AM ET

Hannah Bloch

TEL AVIV, Israel — Israel announced on Saturday the rescue of four hostages from central Gaza in a "complex special daytime operation in Nuseirat," where they’d been held after being kidnapped from Israel by Hamas-led militants during the Oct. 7 attack.

The rescued hostages were identified as Noa Argamani, 25, Almog Meir Jan, 21, Andrey Kozlov, 27, and Shlomi Ziv, 40.

In a joint statement, Israel’s military, police and Shin Bet domestic security agency said: “They are in good medical condition and have been transferred to a hospital in Israel "for further medical examinations.”

Hamas-led militants kidnapped some 240 people on Oct. 7. With the rescue of these four hostages today, 120 remain in captivity -- about a third of whom are believed dead.

Israel's Hostages Family Forum called the rescue operation "heroic."

In a statement, the group said: "The Israeli government must remember its commitment to bring back all 120 hostages still held by Hamas - the living for rehabilitation, the murdered for burial.

"We continue to call upon the international community to apply the necessary pressure on Hamas to accept the proposed deal and release the other 120 hostages held in captivity; every day there is a day too far."

This is a developing story and will be updated.

It's about time they successfully rescued some hostages instead of shooting them.

[muse]

It's about time they successfully rescued some hostages instead of shooting them.

And they only killed 200+ people to do it along with injuring over 400 more, with many of them being civilians & children. This is not acceptable, and there's a special place in hell for anyone who condones these actions.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/08/middleea ... index.html

Israel rescues four hostages in operation Gazan officials say killed more than 200
By Benjamin Brown, Niamh Kennedy, Abeer Salman, Kareem Khadder, Tamar Michaelis, Lauren Izso and journalist Mohammad al-Sawalhi, CNN

The Israeli military rescued four hostages in a special operation in the Nuseirat refugee camp, central Gaza, that Gazan authorities said killed 236 people and injured more than 400 others.

Noa Argamani, Almog Meir Jan, Andrey Kozlov, and Shlomi Ziv, were rescued by the Israeli military, intelligence and special forces from two separate locations in Nuseirat, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Saturday.

All four were kidnapped from the Nova music festival on October 7.

“They are in good medical condition and have been transferred to the ‘Sheba’ Tel-HaShomer Medical Center for further medical examinations,” the IDF added.

An Israeli policeman from a special counter-terrorism unit was killed in Saturday’s rescue operation, according to Israeli police.

News of the rescue came soon after Israel’s military said it was operating in Nuseirat and other areas of central Gaza, where heavy shelling and artillery fire was reported.

At least 236 people have been killed as a result of the rescue operation and more than 400 injured, hospital officials in Gaza said Saturday.

The killed and wounded were taken to two hospitals in Gaza, Al-Awda Hospital in Nuseirat and Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir Al-Balah. Al-Awda Hospital director Dr Marwan Abu Nasser told CNN that 142 bodies had been counted at the medical facility by late Saturday, while Al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah said 94 bodies had been counted.

CNN has no way of verifying casualty numbers reported by Palestinian officials in Gaza. Medical records in the war-torn enclave do not differentiate between civilians and militants killed.

An Israeli military spokesperson put the number of casualties from the operation at “under 100,” and had no information on how many of those were civilians.

Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said Israeli forces had to enter civilian areas to reach hostages as this was where Hamas had embedded itself.

He said the hostages had been locked in two separate apartments in civilian multi-story buildings about 200 meters (650 feet) apart, with Argamani held in a different building to the three males. He said the IDF had received intelligence on their location beforehand, noting that hostages in Gaza were frequently moved around and Argamani had previously been held elsewhere. Similar raids had been called off at the last minute “more than three or four times” due to unfavorable conditions, he added.

The first phase of Saturday’s operation saw the IDF target militant infrastructure with pre-planned strikes, Hagari said.

For the rescue, the IDF had opted for a daytime operation because of the element of surprise, he added, and it had prepared by building models of the apartments the hostages were held in.

Hagari said that the IDF had come under intense fire, especially after withdrawing from the apartments, but did not provide evidence for his claims.

Saturday was an “emotional and happy day for the state of Israel and the IDF,” Hagari said, though he cautioned that most of the remaining hostages were not being held in conditions that would allow for similar operations.

Following Saturday’s announcement, the total number of hostages still held in the Gaza Strip from October 7 is now 116, of which at least 41 are dead.

On the ground in Gaza, locals described scenes of carnage following the strikes that led up to the rescue.

Nidal Abdo, was shopping in Nuseirat on Saturday when he described a “crazy bombardment” hitting. “[It was] something we never witnessed before, maybe 150 rockets fell in less than 10 minutes, while we were running away more fell on the market,” he said.

“There are children torn apart and scattered in the streets, they wiped out Nuseirat, it is hell on earth,” he said.

Another local, Abu Abdallah, said the strike hit while people were sleeping, adding: “Dogs were eating people’s remains. We pulled out six martyrs, all torn up children and women, we risked our lives to get them to the hospital.”

Footage from Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital shows trucks and ambulances transferring injured people and bodies to the hospital. Inside the hospital, people can be seen waiting on the floor.

Graphic video shows many Palestinians, including children, injured with blood on their faces and clothes. Footage from the hospital also shows people screaming and crying, huddled over bodies covered in blankets.

Hamas described the operation as a “brutal crime, devoid of the values of civilization and humanity,” saying the Israeli military “committed a horrific massacre against innocent civilians.”

Hamas said the rescue would not change Israel’s “strategic failure in the Gaza Strip,” as the group still holds a large number of other hostages after eight months of fighting.

The group’s leader Ismail Haniyeh said, “Our people will not surrender, and the resistance will continue to defend our rights in the face of this criminal enemy.”

Abu Obaida, the spokesman for the group’s armed wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, also claimed some hostages had been killed during the rescue mission, but provided no proof and did not elaborate on the identities of who had purportedly died.

In a post on Telegram, he said the rescue raid “posed a great danger” to the remaining hostages and “will have a devastating impact on their conditions and lives.”

Asked about the claim, the Israel Defense Forces said, “Hamas is a terrorist organization that uses psychological terrorism in order to achieve its goals, accordingly its statements should be taken with limited credibility.”

Hostage rescues are rare: this is only the third such successful operation. IDF Corporal Ori Megidish was rescued in October last year from the northern Gaza Strip. In another operation on February 12 this year, Fernando Marman and Louis Har were rescued from southern Rafah.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

It's a clusterfuck for sure and it seems that if there's any way to make it even worse, Israel has demonstrated a determination to find it.

[Crazedwraith]

Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gantz has quit the emergency government in a sign of deepening divisions over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's post-conflict plans for Gaza.

Speaking during a news conference in Tel Aviv on Sunday where he announced his resignation, Mr Gantz said the decision was made with a "heavy heart".

"Unfortunately, Mr Netanyahu is preventing us from approaching true victory, which is the justification for the painful ongoing crisis," he said.

Considered by some to be a potential challenger for power in Israel, Mr Gantz called on Mr Netanyahu to set a date for elections.

Mr Netanyahu responded with a post on X: “Benny, this is not the time to quit the campaign, this is the time to join forces."

Opposition leader Yair Lapid backed Mr Gantz's decision as “important and right” on social media.

Immediately after the announcement, far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir demanded a place in the war cabinet.

Mr Ben-Gvir is part of a right-wing coalition that has threatened to quit and collapse the government if Israel accepts a ceasefire proposal put forward by US President Joe Biden.

Last month, Mr Gantz set a deadline of 8 June for Mr Netanyahu to lay out how Israel would achieve its six "strategic goals", including the end of Hamas rule in Gaza and the establishment of a multinational civilian administration for the territory.

The prime minister dismissed the comments at the time as "washed-up words" that would mean "defeat for Israel".

A retired army general and frequent critic of Mr Netayanhu, Mr Gantz had been a member of Israel's key decision-making "war cabinet", along with the prime minister and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.

During the news conference, Mr Gantz said he is not only personally resigning from the government, but withdrawing the National Unity party he chairs, too.

The move will not topple the Israeli government, since Mr Netanyahu will still hold a comfortable majority of 64 in the 120-seat Knesset.

It does, however, further isolate the prime minister and lay bare the deep political divisions over how he is running the war.

The resignation also comes one day before US Secretary of State Antony Blinken makes a three-day trip to the region, where he plans to visit Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and Qatar to press for a ceasefire agreement.

A political rival of Benjamin Netanyahu and a former IDF chief of staff, Mr Gantz's centrist National Unity party was in opposition until 11 October 2023 when, after the start of the war following Hamas's 7 October attacks, he agreed to form an emergency government with Mr Netanyahu.

National Unity holds five posts in the emergency government.

Mr Gantz's influence in the government was widely seen as a counterbalance to that of far-right members of Mr Netanyahu’s coalition.

In a separate development on Sunday, Israel's army announced the resignation of a senior commander who headed the IDF's Gaza division over what he called his failure to prevent the 7 October attacks.

Brigadier General Avi Rosenfeld is the first IDF combat commander to step down since the attacks.

There is at least some internal dissent here.

[Elfdart]

It's about time they successfully rescued some hostages instead of shooting them.

And they only killed 200+ people to do it along with injuring over 400 more, with many of them being civilians & children. This is not acceptable, and there's a special place in hell for anyone who condones these actions.

That's some Team America shit.

Obviously the point of this raid was to massacre Palestinians. Saving four hostages was a bonus and a handy excuse.

It was creepy enough with all the TikTok videos of IDF stormtroopers donning the underwear of the Palestinian women and girls they had just slaughtered or burned out of their homes (I got the impression that they had watched Silence of the Lambs and thought Buffalo Bill was the hero), but taking victory laps after blowing away civilians and using the presence of hostages as an excuse makes me think they watched The Searchers and thought Ethan Edwards was on to something.

Many years ago, the Chicago Museum of Science and Industry built a full-scale replica of a Vietnamese village and a mock-up of an Army attack helicopter. Kids were invited to get in the cockpit and practice shooting at the hooches. Noam Chomsky remarked in pithy fashion:

“We have to ask ourselves whether what is needed in the United States is dissent—or denazification."

[Juubi Karakuchi]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... srael-gaza

Netanyahu’s ‘war cabinet’ had little power – but its demise does him real damage
Alon Pinkas

It represented a forum he could conveniently castigate when things went wrong. Now the blame can only go in one direction

Mon 17 Jun 2024 17.39 BST

There is very little drama in Netanyahu’s decision, or rather bland and laconic statement that he is dissolving the “war cabinet” that he himself formed on 11 October 2023. Constitutionally and in terms of affecting policy, the decision is a Seinfeld decision: it’s about nothing. The constitutionally authoritative body – the one with real power – is the security cabinet. The war cabinet was a convenient and circumstantial political invention. But Netanyahu rival Benny Gantz’s recent withdrawal from the government made the forum redundant in terms of policymaking, and politically explosive, since the extreme rightwing ministers now demanded to join.

The dissolution of the war cabinet looks like an important development. It isn’t. Had Winston Churchill dissolved his war cabinet in January 1941, eight months after he assembled it in May 1940, that would have been significant. This is not the same. Churchill’s war cabinet, as Neville Chamberlain’s before him in 1939, or even David Lloyd George’s war cabinet during the first world war in 1917, then called the war policy committee, had clearly defined constitutional and statutory powers and authority. The war cabinet that Netanyahu formed in the panic, disarray and disorientation that ensued in the days after 7 October patently lacked those constitutional powers.

Ostensibly, Netanyahu formed the war cabinet for the same reason that Chamberlain, and particularly Churchill, did: to streamline the decision-making process, to make policy debates more effective, briefings more constructive, and to avoid the useless and time-consuming cacophony of pontifications by tens of ministers speaking for what they believe is the historical record, and catering to an enthusiastic audience of themselves only.

In Israel’s case there was also an overriding political reason. The inexperienced, inept, incendiary extremist rightwing government that Netanyahu ceremoniously formed in December 2022 was ill-equipped to deal with wartime strategic thinking, planning and decision processes. Netanyahu needed to shield himself from criticism, surround himself with experience and – since “responsibility” and “accountability” are alien terms to him – shift the onus on to others.

He needed a forum he could conveniently castigate and blame when things went wrong, and criticise members for preventing him from making what he would later call triumphant decisions. Blaming faulty intelligence, the military and the General Security Service (Shabak), and then implicitly – the explicit will come later – attacking US President Biden for depriving him of a historic victory wasn’t enough. He needed the informal forum he could later attack for impeding him.

The need for a centre of responsibility for immediate security and war concerns has long been recognised. In April 1974, the Agranat commission report, established as an inquiry into the strategic surprise leading to the Yom Kippur war in 1973, published its findings, conclusions and recommendations. Among them was the specific need to form a security cabinet that would constitute a war cabinet in the event of a war. An informal forum, PM Golda Meir’s “Kitchenette” group already existed and was not unlike Netanyahu’s 2023 war cabinet.

This recommendation was repeated and reinforced in the Winograd commission reports into the 2006 war in Lebanon. A cabinet was formed and, in 2017, another committee defined its exact powers and work mode. These references all related to the security and foreign affairs cabinet, not the unofficial war cabinet that Netanyahu formed. That was a consultative body, where deliberations and debates were to be held, ideas exchanged and formal cabinet decisions’ implementation overseen and supervised. In fact, when you look at the management and prosecution of the war, and the quality of the decisions made – particularly the indecision – there’s a case to be made that neither the formation nor the dissolution of the war cabinet is of any direct policy significance.

But this doesn’t mean it has no political implications. It does, in abundance. First, what the war cabinet failed to do. The presence of two former chiefs of staff of the IDF-turned-politicians, former generals Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, was supposed to add balance, seriousness and purpose. Instead, they failed to secure from Netanyahu a coherent vision for postwar Gaza, a definition of the war’s attainable political goals and plans for different tactical and operational management of the war. For example, once the IDF identified southern Gaza as Hamas’s centre of gravity, the war cabinet failed to effectively question the decision to invade the north instead.

It also abjectly failed to enforce a different force and munitions employment to avoid the indiscriminate deaths of civilians in Gaza. Most glaringly, the war cabinet abjectly failed to respond to Biden’s framework for postwar Gaza, a political process with the Palestinians and a reconfigured security structure for the Middle East. What it did succeed in doing is influence a premature, arguably reckless, attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon in mid-October, and a callous invasion of Rafah as recently as May.

At the same time, the dissolution of the war cabinet forum deprives Netanyahu of his legitimacy and constricts his manoeuvring room. Now the US has no political allies nor a forum to engage with.

The dissolution may not affect policy, but it weakens Netanyahu politically even more than he already is. He owns not only the 7 October debacle, not only the management of the war, but also the weeks ahead – and now he faces them alone.

Alon Pinkas served as Israel’s consul general in New York from 2000 to 2004. He is now a columnist for Haaretz

Emphasis mine. Netanyahu's fall creeps a little closer. Maybe.

[Broomstick]

Not soon enough. Thousands will die before that happens, added to the hecatomb already slaughtered.

[PainRack]

https://x.com/AssalRad/status/180430127 ... 6aynQ&s=19


More euphemism from the NYT. Instead of Israel bomb refugee camp, it's displaced Gaza's were camped where Israel strikes happened.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

https://x.com/AssalRad/status/180430127 ... 6aynQ&s=19


More euphemism from the NYT. Instead of Israel bomb refugee camp, it's displaced Gaza's were camped where Israel strikes happened.

Dozens killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza City, says Hamas

At least 39 people have been killed and many more injured by Israeli strikes across northern Gaza, according to Hamas officials.

The areas hit were the al-Shati refugee camp in the west of Gaza City and a building in the east of the city.

Israel said its fighter jets struck two Hamas military sites in the Gaza City area but did not elaborate further.

Dozen of bodies have been taken to the al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza City and many more people are injured, said hospital director Fadel Naem.

At least 14 people are still missing and emergency workers are continuing to dig for survivors, according to the Hamas-controlled Government Media Office.

A medical rescue worker in the area said the airstrike at the al-Shati camp felt like an “earthquake.”

“There are entire families under the destroyed houses,” they said.

Local resident Abu Mahmoud Al-Karir said: "As you can see, an entire block has been obliterated. Tall buildings were levelled to the ground, now buried under the earth.”

It comes after the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said at least 22 people were killed in a strike that hit civilians sheltering in southern Gaza on Friday.

The strike hit the tents of displaced people in the Palestinian town of Mawasi, parts of which have been identified by the Israeli military as a humanitarian zone.

The ICRC said its office adjacent to the humanitarian area in Mawasi was damaged by nearby shelling.

It did not attribute blame for the shelling, but said that “firing so dangerously close to humanitarian structures puts the lives of civilians and humanitarians at risk.”

It said “heavy-caliber projectiles” had landed within meters of the facility and the nearby Red Cross field hospital had received 22 bodies and 45 injured.

In a statement Isreal said: “Following an initial inquiry, there was no direct attack carried out by the IDF against a Red Cross facility. The incident will be quickly examined and its findings will be presented to our international partners.”

Israel has been intensifying its operation in nearby Rafah, where it launched an offensive last month as part of its campaign to dismantle Hamas in Gaza.

Israel launched its offensive in Gaza following the Hamas attacks of 7 October , which killed around 1,200 people.

[Ralin]

Inching towards the point where everyone acts shocked to find out that the death toll is really in the hundreds of thousands: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 3/fulltext

By June 19, 2024, 37 396 people had been killed in the Gaza Strip since the attack by Hamas and the Israeli invasion in October, 2023, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, as reported by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.1 The Ministry's figures have been contested by the Israeli authorities, although they have been accepted as accurate by Israeli intelligence services,2 the UN, and WHO. These data are supported by independent analyses, comparing changes in the number of deaths of UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) staff with those reported by the Ministry,3 which found claims of data fabrication implausible.4

Collecting data is becoming increasingly difficult for the Gaza Health Ministry due to the destruction of much of the infrastructure.5 The Ministry has had to augment its usual reporting, based on people dying in its hospitals or brought in dead, with information from reliable media sources and first responders. This change has inevitably degraded the detailed data recorded previously. Consequently, the Gaza Health Ministry now reports separately the number of unidentified bodies among the total death toll. As of May 10, 2024, 30% of the 35 091 deaths were unidentified.1
Some officials and news agencies have used this development, designed to improve data quality, to undermine the veracity of the data. However, the number of reported deaths is likely an underestimate. The non-governmental organisation Airwars undertakes detailed assessments of incidents in the Gaza Strip and often finds that not all names of identifiable victims are included in the Ministry's list.6 Furthermore, the UN estimates that, by Feb 29, 2024, 35% of buildings in the Gaza Strip had been destroyed,5 so the number of bodies still buried in the rubble is likely substantial, with estimates of more than 10 000.7

Armed conflicts have indirect health implications beyond the direct harm from violence. Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will continue to be many indirect deaths in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases. The total death toll is expected to be large given the intensity of this conflict; destroyed health-care infrastructure; severe shortages of food, water, and shelter; the population's inability to flee to safe places; and the loss of funding to UNRWA, one of the very few humanitarian organisations still active in the Gaza Strip.8
In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death9 to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2 375 259, this would translate to 7·9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip. A report from Feb 7, 2024, at the time when the direct death toll was 28 000, estimated that without a ceasefire there would be between 58 260 deaths (without an epidemic or escalation) and 85 750 deaths (if both occurred) by Aug 6, 2024.10

An immediate and urgent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is essential, accompanied by measures to enable the distribution of medical supplies, food, clean water, and other resources for basic human needs. At the same time, there is a need to record the scale and nature of suffering in this conflict. Documenting the true scale is crucial for ensuring historical accountability and acknowledging the full cost of the war. It is also a legal requirement. The interim measures set out by the International Court of Justice in January, 2024, require Israel to “take effective measures to prevent the destruction and ensure the preservation of evidence related to allegations of acts within the scope of … the Genocide Convention”.11 The Gaza Health Ministry is the only organisation counting the dead. Furthermore, these data will be crucial for post-war recovery, restoring infrastructure, and planning humanitarian aid.

MM is a member of the editorial board of the Israel Journal of Health Policy Research and of the International Advisory Committee of the Israel National Institute for Health Policy Research. MM was co-chair of the Institute's 2016 6th International Jerusalem Conference on Health Policy, but writes in a personal capacity. He also collaborates with researchers in Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon. RK and SY declare no competing interests. The authors would like to acknowledge study team members Shofiqul Islam and Safa Noreen for their contribution to collecting and managing the data for this Correspondence.

Editorial note: The Lancet Group takes a neutral position with respect to territorial claims in published text and institutional affiliations.

[Ralin]

Inching towards the point where everyone acts shocked to find out that the death toll is really in the hundreds of thousands: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 3/fulltext

By June 19, 2024, 37 396 people had been killed in the Gaza Strip since the attack by Hamas and the Israeli invasion in October, 2023, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, as reported by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.1 The Ministry's figures have been contested by the Israeli authorities, although they have been accepted as accurate by Israeli intelligence services,2 the UN, and WHO. These data are supported by independent analyses, comparing changes in the number of deaths of UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) staff with those reported by the Ministry,3 which found claims of data fabrication implausible.4

Collecting data is becoming increasingly difficult for the Gaza Health Ministry due to the destruction of much of the infrastructure.5 The Ministry has had to augment its usual reporting, based on people dying in its hospitals or brought in dead, with information from reliable media sources and first responders. This change has inevitably degraded the detailed data recorded previously. Consequently, the Gaza Health Ministry now reports separately the number of unidentified bodies among the total death toll. As of May 10, 2024, 30% of the 35 091 deaths were unidentified.1
Some officials and news agencies have used this development, designed to improve data quality, to undermine the veracity of the data. However, the number of reported deaths is likely an underestimate. The non-governmental organisation Airwars undertakes detailed assessments of incidents in the Gaza Strip and often finds that not all names of identifiable victims are included in the Ministry's list.6 Furthermore, the UN estimates that, by Feb 29, 2024, 35% of buildings in the Gaza Strip had been destroyed,5 so the number of bodies still buried in the rubble is likely substantial, with estimates of more than 10 000.7

Armed conflicts have indirect health implications beyond the direct harm from violence. Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will continue to be many indirect deaths in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases. The total death toll is expected to be large given the intensity of this conflict; destroyed health-care infrastructure; severe shortages of food, water, and shelter; the population's inability to flee to safe places; and the loss of funding to UNRWA, one of the very few humanitarian organisations still active in the Gaza Strip.8
In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death9 to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Using the 2022 Gaza Strip population estimate of 2 375 259, this would translate to 7·9% of the total population in the Gaza Strip. A report from Feb 7, 2024, at the time when the direct death toll was 28 000, estimated that without a ceasefire there would be between 58 260 deaths (without an epidemic or escalation) and 85 750 deaths (if both occurred) by Aug 6, 2024.10

An immediate and urgent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is essential, accompanied by measures to enable the distribution of medical supplies, food, clean water, and other resources for basic human needs. At the same time, there is a need to record the scale and nature of suffering in this conflict. Documenting the true scale is crucial for ensuring historical accountability and acknowledging the full cost of the war. It is also a legal requirement. The interim measures set out by the International Court of Justice in January, 2024, require Israel to “take effective measures to prevent the destruction and ensure the preservation of evidence related to allegations of acts within the scope of … the Genocide Convention”.11 The Gaza Health Ministry is the only organisation counting the dead. Furthermore, these data will be crucial for post-war recovery, restoring infrastructure, and planning humanitarian aid.

MM is a member of the editorial board of the Israel Journal of Health Policy Research and of the International Advisory Committee of the Israel National Institute for Health Policy Research. MM was co-chair of the Institute's 2016 6th International Jerusalem Conference on Health Policy, but writes in a personal capacity. He also collaborates with researchers in Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon. RK and SY declare no competing interests. The authors would like to acknowledge study team members Shofiqul Islam and Safa Noreen for their contribution to collecting and managing the data for this Correspondence.

Editorial note: The Lancet Group takes a neutral position with respect to territorial claims in published text and institutional affiliations.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Most of that is guesswork, I don't see any concrete figures.

[Ralin]

Most of that is guesswork, I don't see any concrete figures.

Like I said, inching forward. Educated guesswork is what you get when the invading army keeps bombing hospitals and murdering doctors.

[Gandalf]

Interestingly, divisions over Palestine are causing something of a fracture within Australia's Labor Party. A senator broke with the caucus, and is now on the crossbench. Now, a number of Muslim political groups are going to field candidates in Labor seats.

Labor are now in a difficult spot, with less than a year left on their mandate.

The Conversation

[Elfdart]

On a lighter note:

[Ralin]

So not really sure where to go about looking this up, but is Netanyahu known to have any strong opinions regarding female politicians and having to deal with them being in a position of power?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Israel vows Hezbollah 'will pay the price' after rocket strike kills 12 children

Israel has vowed Hezbollah will "pay the price" after blaming the Lebanese-based militant group for a rocket attack that killed 12 children and injured 44 people in the Golan Heights.
Overnight on Sunday, Israeli warplanes conducted airstrikes against Hezbollah targets “deep inside Lebanese territory” and along the border. It is not clear if there were any casualties from those strikes.

Hezbollah “firmly denies” it was behind the strike, the deadliest to hit Israel since the October 7 attacks.

Israel said the militant group fired rocket strikes on a football pitch in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, risking a serious escalation of the conflict in the region.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned Hezbollah "will pay a heavy price for this attack, one that it has not paid so far". The Israeli security cabinet has authorised Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to decide how and when to respond.

The Israeli military's chief spokesman, Daniel Hagari, said: "There is no doubt that Hezbollah has crossed all the red lines here, and the response will reflect that."

Hezbollah 'may just accept' retaliation after 12 children killed in strike
Hezbollah chief spokesman Mohammed Afif said the group "categorically denies carrying out an attack on Majdal Shams".

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy condemned the attack on X: "We are deeply concerned about the risk of further escalation and destabilisation. We have been clear Hizballah must cease their attacks."

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, said: "There is no justification for terrorism, period, and every indication is that, indeed the rockets were from... or the rocket was from Hezbollah.

"We stand by Israel's right to defend its citizens from terrorist attacks.

"And one of the reasons that we're continuing to work so hard for a ceasefire in Gaza, is just not for Gaza but also so that we can really unlock an opportunity to bring calm, lasting calm across the Blue Line between Israel and Lebanon."

The White House National Security Council in a statement said the United States "will continue to support efforts to end these terrible attacks along the Blue Line, which must be a top priority".

"Our support for Israel’s security is iron-clad and unwavering against all Iranian-backed terrorist groups, including Lebanese Hezbollah," the statement continued.

In a call with Prime Minister Isaac Herzog, Blinken urged against scaling up the conflict.

The US State Department says the call "emphasised the importance of preventing escalation" and "discussed efforts to reach a diplomatic solution to allow citizens on both sides of the border between Israel and Lebanon to return home."

On Sunday, the Israeli army released footage of what it said were strikes carried out against Hezbollah targets both deep inside Lebanese territory and in southern Lebanon.

The Lebanese foreign minister warned that if Israel responded by invading Lebanon it risked dragging the whole region into war.

“[A] war against Lebanon is a regional war,” caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib told CNN.

“It’s not going to be Hezbollah against Israel…You have the Houthis, you have the Iraqi militias, you have militias in Syria who are not Syrians: Pakistani, Afghan militias. They’re all going to get involved in that.”

In the case of a war, he said Lebanon would not get involved but would stand behind Hezbollah.

He added: “If there is a war, we’re supporting Hezbollah, definitely."

“Not because of conviction but because of any attack on our country, we support Hezbollah in this regard.”

Funerals were also held at midday, with coffins draped in white cloth and bearing photos of the victims carried to a community centre in Majdal Shams.

Subscribe free to our weekly newsletter for exclusive and original coverage from ITV News. Direct to your inbox every Friday morning

Ha'il Mahmoud, a local resident, told Israeli Channel 12 that children were playing football when the rocket hit the field.

He said a siren was heard seconds before the rocket hit, but there was no time to take shelter.

Jihan Sfadi, the school principal school, said that five students were among the dead.

He said: "The situation here is very difficult. Parents are crying, people are screaming outside. No one can digest what has happened."

Israel's military said its analysis showed that the rocket was launched from an area north of the village of Chebaa in southern Lebanon.

The strike at the football pitch, just before sunset, followed earlier cross-border violence on Saturday, when Hezbollah said three of its fighters were killed.