What if Sauron didn’t make the One Ring?

[Tribble]

In this scenario, like in the original timeline Sauron approaches the Elves as “Annatar” and helps them make the lesser rings and original 16 Rings of Power. After he leaves, Celebrimbor goes on to make the 3 Rings on his own without Sauron’s aid.

However, when Sauron goes to make the One Ring, he realizes that his plan won’t work because the Elves will realize what’s going on the moment he creates it. He also decides that concentrating his own personal life force and will into a singular physical object carries too much risk, even if the risk is seemingly small. As a result, he abandons his plan to make the One Ring.

Sauron’s goal remains the same - total domination of the creatures of Middle Earth, especially the Elves.

As per OP, since the One Ring was not made, the Elves are free to use all the of their rings with no risk of Sauron corrupting them unless he gains physical possession (even the 16 Rings, while more susceptible to his influence than the Three, were not evil at the outset as the Elves would have noticed). They may also continue to make more, if able.

This may prove a problem if he tries to use physical force, at least within the timeframe that he originally declared war (while he was able to overwhelm the Elves in the original timeline, the Elves were unable to use any of their rings since he wore the One).

However, since Sauron never created the One Ring, his plans and betrayal was never discovered and he is free to mingle with the Elves if he chooses to (though some Elves like Galadriel and Elrond will continue to distrust him).

What do you think would happen next?

[Rogue 9]

Then he's handed the elves a powerful weapon that he can't do anything about and never gains ascendancy in Mordor. He can still cause havoc, see the destruction of Numenor, but he would never be able to overpower the elves.

[Revy]

I thought the 3 elven rings were used even after he made the One Ring. Didn't Gandalf and Galadriel have and use one each in the LOTR books?

[Bedlam]

I thought the 3 elven rings were used even after he made the One Ring. Didn't Gandalf and Galadriel have and use one each in the LOTR books?

Although they had them it's implied that either they didn't use them, or used them very sparingly, for fear of being corrupted. It certainly seems like their power may be part of what is preserving the remaining elven realms, hence why they finally fade after Sauron's defeat.

[Revy]

How unkillable is Sauron without the One Ring, being a Maia? From what I can see reading up on it, he tends to get his ass kicked in a straight fight, but wasn't part of the problem having the Ring taken from him, depriving him of power? If he lacks that as a weakness, how durable is he given what he is? How extensive is his shapeshifting - can he shapeshift into a dragon? A Balrog?

In lieu of brute force, his best bet might be to find/steal the 3 elven rings, or find a suitable candidate and manipulate them into forging a One Ring (hey, if you did this thing you could rule the world!) then stab them in the back and take that ring for his own use. Not sure if that would work, especially if it would require someone with Maia levels of power to make a One Ring (though maybe he could con a Balrog into doing it?)

[Solauren]

His best bet at that point is to figure out a way to corrupt the ring and ring bearers without it being as obvious as the creation of the One Ring.

Once he's done that, he creates a situation that encourages the elves to use the 3 Rings they possess.
i.e massive orc hordes

This will lead to the Ring-Bearers becoming leaders of the Elves.

When the Ring-Elves are finally corrupted, and he can heavily influence if not outright control them, have two of the bearers kill each other, and make Galadriel his Queen. He now has control of the Elves, and Galadriel has a companion/'front elf'/puppet.

Possibly keep the 'bearerless' rings for himself, possibly putting his lifeforce into them, now creating his own 'One Ring'.

Sauron now has the most powerful force on Middle Earth at his command. He can then use the Orc Hordes to overwhelm other areas, and then have the Elves come in and 'deal with the problem'.

End result - badly beaten up Middle Earth, under Sauron's rule via his puppet Galadriel.
Begin reshaping it to his will.

[Tribble]

Then he's handed the elves a powerful weapon that he can't do anything about and never gains ascendancy in Mordor. He can still cause havoc, see the destruction of Numenor, but he would never be able to overpower the elves.

I agree that unless he has a lot more time to build up his forces and/or recruit other high end beings like the dragons and the Balrog, brute force probably isn’t an option.

However, he’s not known as “Sauron the Deceiver” for nothing. At this stage he can certainly go among men and corrupt the Easterners and possibly Numenor. And he can still go among the Elves, just have to be careful around people like Elrond and Galadriel.

Would he be able to convince Men that the Elves are a threat and/or withholding immortality on purpose? I imagine a war between Numenor and the Elves would cause quite a bit of problems, even if the Elves had all the rings available for use.

I thought the 3 elven rings were used even after he made the One Ring. Didn't Gandalf and Galadriel have and use one each in the LOTR books?

IIRC the elves were only able to use the Three after the One was lost, since Sauron couldn’t use it to corrupt them. By that point the Seven and the Nine were already fully corrupted by Sauron so even if the Elves were able to somehow took them back I doubt there was anyone left with enough skill to undo his influence on them.

[LadyTevar]

IIRC the elves were only able to use the Three after the One was lost, since Sauron couldn’t use it to corrupt them. By that point the Seven and the Nine were already fully corrupted by Sauron so even if the Elves were able to somehow took them back I doubt there was anyone left with enough skill to undo his influence on them.

IIRC, the corruption on the Dwarven Rings triggered overwhelming greed, but took decades of wear before it became insanity. The corruption on the Rings of Men was another facet of greed, making the future RingWraiths despotic and warlike, eager to conquer those around them.
The Elves might not sense the corruption on the Seven Dwarven Rings immediately, since it was so slow-acting, but Sauron judged the Men (and woman?) that got the Rings well -- they were already hungry for power and the Rings fed the darkness already in their hearts.

[Rogue 9]

I thought the 3 elven rings were used even after he made the One Ring. Didn't Gandalf and Galadriel have and use one each in the LOTR books?

Not while Sauron possessed the One. After Sauron's defeat and the wresting and subsequent loss of the One Ring, there was no one on the other end to exert control or corrupt them, so they could use away until/unless Sauron got his mitts back on the thing.

[Revy]

How unkillable is Sauron without the One Ring, being a Maia? From what I can see reading up on it, he tends to get his ass kicked in a straight fight, but wasn't part of the problem having the Ring taken from him, depriving him of power? If he lacks that as a weakness, how durable is he given what he is? How extensive is his shapeshifting - can he shapeshift into a dragon? A Balrog?

Anyone wanna take a stab at these?

[Ralin]

I thought the 3 elven rings were used even after he made the One Ring. Didn't Gandalf and Galadriel have and use one each in the LOTR books?

Not while Sauron possessed the One. After Sauron's defeat and the wresting and subsequent loss of the One Ring, there was no one on the other end to exert control or corrupt them, so they could use away until/unless Sauron got his mitts back on the thing.

And they could even exploit them in reverse. Galadrial mentioned being able to perceive Sauron's mind, at least the part concerned with the elves, while still being able to keep him out of hers. Presumably that was not an intended feature.

[Lord Revan]

IIRC the elves were only able to use the Three after the One was lost, since Sauron couldn’t use it to corrupt them. By that point the Seven and the Nine were already fully corrupted by Sauron so even if the Elves were able to somehow took them back I doubt there was anyone left with enough skill to undo his influence on them.

IIRC, the corruption on the Dwarven Rings triggered overwhelming greed, but took decades of wear before it became insanity. The corruption on the Rings of Men was another facet of greed, making the future RingWraiths despotic and warlike, eager to conquer those around them.
The Elves might not sense the corruption on the Seven Dwarven Rings immediately, since it was so slow-acting, but Sauron judged the Men (and woman?) that got the Rings well -- they were already hungry for power and the Rings fed the darkness already in their hearts.

IIRC the Elven Rings were also made without Sauron being directly involved in the process, that said they were made with the knowledge given to the Ring smiths by Sauron which is why the One Ring was able to influence those rings too.

[Rogue 9]

IIRC the elves were only able to use the Three after the One was lost, since Sauron couldn’t use it to corrupt them. By that point the Seven and the Nine were already fully corrupted by Sauron so even if the Elves were able to somehow took them back I doubt there was anyone left with enough skill to undo his influence on them.

IIRC, the corruption on the Dwarven Rings triggered overwhelming greed, but took decades of wear before it became insanity. The corruption on the Rings of Men was another facet of greed, making the future RingWraiths despotic and warlike, eager to conquer those around them.
The Elves might not sense the corruption on the Seven Dwarven Rings immediately, since it was so slow-acting, but Sauron judged the Men (and woman?) that got the Rings well -- they were already hungry for power and the Rings fed the darkness already in their hearts.

The Dwarf-rings weren't less corrupting; dwarves are just less corruptible. That's pretty explicit in the text.

[Ralin]

IIRC the elves were only able to use the Three after the One was lost, since Sauron couldn’t use it to corrupt them. By that point the Seven and the Nine were already fully corrupted by Sauron so even if the Elves were able to somehow took them back I doubt there was anyone left with enough skill to undo his influence on them.

IIRC, the corruption on the Dwarven Rings triggered overwhelming greed, but took decades of wear before it became insanity. The corruption on the Rings of Men was another facet of greed, making the future RingWraiths despotic and warlike, eager to conquer those around them.
The Elves might not sense the corruption on the Seven Dwarven Rings immediately, since it was so slow-acting, but Sauron judged the Men (and woman?) that got the Rings well -- they were already hungry for power and the Rings fed the darkness already in their hearts.

IIRC the Elven Rings were also made without Sauron being directly involved in the process, that said they were made with the knowledge given to the Ring smiths by Sauron which is why the One Ring was able to influence those rings too.

Speculation: The Ring dominates the other Rings and their users because it's the Ruling Ring and that's what it exists to do. That power transfers to whoever has the Ring and knows how to use it because its a separate entity from Sauron, but the process of making it must have also given Sauron personally a connection to all the other Rings of Power. Which is why the Ringwraiths are still obeying him and why Galadriel had access to his mind.