[What if] Pearl Harbour and the Pacific.

[weemadando]

If it had not been for Pearl Harbour, would the US have intervened, let alone joined the war in the Pacific in WW2?

[Tragic]

The US would have stayed out the war alittle bit longer. But They would have ended up in the war at some point.

[Phil Skayhan]

Would Japan have still moved on the Phillipines? Or are you taking them completely out of the equation?

[TrailerParkJawa]

The US would intervene in the Pacific sooner or later. Japanese expansion would see to that.

[weemadando]

Would Japan have still moved on the Phillipines? Or are you taking them completely out of the equation?

US had pulled out of the Phillipines by then. There was no "trigger" other than Pearl Harbour.

And would America really have intervened? I mean, the Brits lose a few colonies, so do the Dutch and French. But suddenly the Soviet Union has a great big new powerful enemy on the other side of it. Politically the US could have kicked up its heels, enjoyed a lot of nice trade with the new pacific empire and had the soviets packing their dacks over Japan AND Germany.

[Phil Skayhan]

Would Japan have still moved on the Phillipines? Or are you taking them completely out of the equation?

US had pulled out of the Phillipines by then.

Is this part of your hypothetical, that the US had no presence in the Philippines? Because that is not true.

Also you have to remember why the Japanese attacked Pearl. They had to remove the threat of the US Pacific fleet that would challenge their military advances.

There were increasing tensions between the two nations and the threat of war was real even before the attack on Hawaii.

In order to expand their resourse base in the South Pacific, the Japanese were going to have to control US interests like the Philippines and other island chains. That was what all the diplomatic efforts over the months prior were about. Hoping to find a settlement. The US never realized how late in the game it really was.

In short, yes, the US would have gone to war with Japan if the Japanese continued their planned expansion.

[Nathan F]

The Japanese would have continued expanding and eventually taken the Aleutian Islands, the other possible match to the powder keg that was the Pacific.

Although, if the US had waited just a couple years for war entry, the Germans would have a huge leap technology wise, possibly fielding squadrons of jet fighters with experienced pilots that would have decimated allied air forces. And if the Germans had been given a few more years, they would have possibly had a nuclear weapon with the V2 A-6 rocket to carry it.

I am just glad we entered the war when we did and didn't give the axis more time to build its forces.

[The Dark]

Would Japan have still moved on the Phillipines? Or are you taking them completely out of the equation?

US had pulled out of the Phillipines by then. There was no "trigger" other than Pearl Harbour.

*cough*Bataan*cough*Corregidor*cough*

[Sokar]

The US would intervene in the Pacific sooner or later. Japanese expansion would see to that.

Wrong O! there were signifigant US detachments in the Phillipenes, might you know the name MacArthur, they dont send a three star(IIRC) to sit pretty. As of 1941 the Phillipenes still constituted a US protectorate and the Japanese war plans called for the occupation of Luzon and Manila as a staging point for further drives into the Dutch East Indies(and the oil they so despeatly needed) and New Guinea. The Pearl Harbor assault was to head off the possibility of a mass fleet action in the open ocean which the Imperial Combined Fleet was uncertain it could win. War in the Pacific was inevitable unless the Japanese totaly abandoned their plans for further expansion , and withdrew from the war in China, which by 1941 they had been fighting since 1936.

[Sokar]

ACK!!!! FUCK!!!!!
I quoted the wrong post!!!!!!!

I meant to quote Phil_Skyhan!!!!!! NOT TPJ!!!!

[Phil Skayhan]

ACK!!!! FUCK!!!!!
I quoted the wrong post!!!!!!!

I meant to quote Phil_Skyhan!!!!!! NOT TPJ!!!!

Actually, I think you meant to quote Ando....your post dovetails nicely with mine.

[weemadando]

I think a few of you are truly overestimating 2 things.

1) America's willingness at the time to get into a war.

2) MacArthur, who was probably the best self publisicing general since Augustus.

US could well have ceded the Philipinnes as part of an "honourable peace" in exchange for guaranteed trade etc with the new Empire. After all, why fight when you can get someone else to handle the issues in the region and you get produce at slightly above cost. And are you really trying to tell me that the isolationist American gov't of the late 30's and early 40's would have gone to war over Japan's continued occupation of China?

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I think a few of you are truly overestimating 2 things.

1) America's willingness at the time to get into a war.

2) MacArthur, who was probably the best self publisicing general since Augustus.

US could well have ceded the Philipinnes as part of an "honourable peace" in exchange for guaranteed trade etc with the new Empire. After all, why fight when you can get someone else to handle the issues in the region and you get produce at slightly above cost. And are you really trying to tell me that the isolationist American gov't of the late 30's and early 40's would have gone to war over Japan's continued occupation of China?

The Roosevelt government was hardly isolationist. It had pressed the line with Japan repeatedly, and again with Germany - With Japan over Manchuria and then the invasion of China (we'd lost gunboats on Chinese rivers enforcing our interests) and with Germany over lend-lease - We'd already lost the Reuben James on escort of freighters across the Atlantic.

America was neither isolationist nor eager to avoid war. There was definitely a strong element that didn't want it, but Roosevelt was pushing at the very edge of what was acceptable to get involved against them. An invasion of the PIs would have been more than sufficient to bring the average American onboard and force the support of the Republican Party - and would probably lead to war in Europe for us very soon, as well. Japan had to invade the PIs, as well, at least in their own eyes. They felt them an axe hanging over their supply lines should they go after Indonesia.

Once the League of Nations had condemned the Japanese invasion of China and once Zhukov had defeated the Japanese aims against Siberia, conflict with America was largely inevitable. Japan couldn't find support for their colonial aims in China and they couldn't get what they needed out of the Soviet Union, which had proven massive land supremacy in every aspect over their own army. So they had to look towards softer targets and ones they could use their far better navy against. And that inevitably brought them into conflict with U.S. possessions that the USA was more than willing to fight for.

[Frank Hipper]

I hate getting in on these late.....

The U.S. and Japan had been horny for each other practically since the turn of the century. The Washington naval conferance and treaty were the only thing that stopped an American-Japanese war from breaking out in the 20s or 30s in the first place. War would have come, eventually.

[Arrow]

If I remember van der Vat correctly, Roosevelt had ordered the military to be prepared for war by mid-1942. However, Roosevelt was planning to help Britain take on Germany, not go on an island hoping spree across the pacific while fighting in North Africa and Western Europe.

Basically, had Japan not taken any aggressive action and not attempted to seize more than they aready had, we would have gotten into with them much later, with Germany already neutralized or defeated. This would have also meant that the British and Russians would had also taken on major roles in the Pacific (as opposed to Britain concentrating on India and the Russians staying out of it until the very end of the war).

[phongn]

Although, if the US had waited just a couple years for war entry, the Germans would have a huge leap technology wise, possibly fielding squadrons of jet fighters with experienced pilots that would have decimated allied air forces.

I don't think so. The RAF was already set to field the Meteor jet fighter, and the US working on their own - and the USAAF and RAF can field far more fighters than the Luftwaffe can. Of course, the Red Army will be sucking away major resources that will be unable to bear on either the UK or whatever expeditionary forces the US sends.

And if the Germans had been given a few more years, they would have possibly had a nuclear weapon with the V2 A-6 rocket to carry it.

The Germany nuclear program was unlikely to succeed in even getting a test-detonation until the mid-1950s. Their program was absolutely horrid, partially caused either by (1) Heisenberg's incompetence or (2) Heisenberg's sabotage. For that matter, A6's CEP was so huge (A4 was large enough) that it might have very will missed its target entirely.

They'd need mor ethan a 'few more years' to get A6 operational, and by that time the US B-36 may very well become operational (and it had the performance to avoid interception from aircraft such as earlier F-86).

[The Dark]

US could well have ceded the Philipinnes as part of an "honourable peace" in exchange for guaranteed trade etc with the new Empire. After all, why fight when you can get someone else to handle the issues in the region and you get produce at slightly above cost. And are you really trying to tell me that the isolationist American gov't of the late 30's and early 40's would have gone to war over Japan's continued occupation of China?

You're ignoring the Death March. One American soldier dead every few meters of a path that was a few hundred kilometers long (I can pull the exact numbers from Ghost Soldiers later, but I have an exam in half an hour). America would not overlook that.

I don't think so. The RAF was already set to field the Meteor jet fighter, and the US working on their own - and the USAAF and RAF can field far more fighters than the Luftwaffe can. Of course, the Red Army will be sucking away major resources that will be unable to bear on either the UK or whatever expeditionary forces the US sends.

Even the P-80 was deployed during the war as it occurred. Two units were in Italy before the surrender, though they were not ready for combat (pilots weren't fully trained on them). Post-war testing showed the -80 to be superior to either the Meteor F.MkI or the Me262A-1a in maneuverability, though it was inferior in damage capability (though the 30mm cannon had too low a rate of fire to be effective against fighters). The USAAF with P-80s would have been quite capable of inflicting serious casualties on the Luftwaffe.

As a curiosity thing, what does anyone think would have happened if the war did occur later, and the AVG (Flying Tigers) had P-80s instead of P-40s?

[Coyote]

Roosevelt was looking to get into the scrap with Germany, but I think he was willing to go without the Japanese bit.

Now take it further-- the Japanese, unfettered by war with the US-- what else would they have done and how far could they have gotten? I don't think they would have seriously been able to digest all of China, nor keep far off posts like Singapore... and held the Phillipenes and go after Australia! It might have been nice to use them as a foil against the Soviet Union but it would have been a paper tiger.

They over-extended themselves, and they were basically beating up on unarmed peasants and guerrillas. Without a real threat to challenge them, their paper-thin tanks and bamboo hulled fighters would have continued to be sufficient for them. The Allies, learning and advancing in the nasty mechanized battlefields of Europe, would have eventually been able to squash Japan like a bug.

[EmperorSolo51]

I have thought up a few what-ifs about this particular question my self:

What if Admiral Yammoto convinces other members of the Japanese High Command that an Attack on Pearl Harbor is a bad idea but lays down a plan that would have the Japanese attack the Dutch East Indies, British and French possesions, and the Phillapines. The United States would respond by implementing War Plan Orange. (The plan to relieve the Philiapines by sending a large Naval task force to dislodge the Japanese from the islands.) Admiral Yammotto could lay a trap for the the Pacific fleet and very well decimate the US pacific Fleet in the Surigao straight. How would such a battle effect the war.

What if The Japanese had gone to war the United States earlier say in 1939 or 1940?

What if the Japanese had refused to enter the Axis alliance after Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was signed in 1939 (Japan was vehemenly anti-communist and they could have seen this pact as a betrayel of the Anti-Comintern Pact they had signed in the 1930's) and had declared war on the Axis powers when it became clear that the Axis was loosing say 1942?? How would the western powers react to the Japanese entering the war on the allied side?? How would this effect thier empire after the war is won? What would a post Great War 2 world look like?

[Coyote]

If Japan had played their cards right, they could have been seen as a force against Communism-- but then again, the US was only moderatly concerned about Russian Communism at that point (compared to the later hysteria and Red Scare).

Luring the US fleet out and destroying it would have left the US toothless in the Pacific; at Pearl we were able to recover most of our ships or use their scrap iron for more production. Also, Japan could have followed up either the Pearl attack or a theoretical South Pacific defeat with an invasion of Hawaii itself, neutralizing that as a base.

Apart from garrisoning the islands of the Pacific, I doubt the Japanese would have gone into Australia or Alaska. China was their big prize and they would have poured everything into that; not just for the resources but because of their racial animosity towards the Chinese (and Koreans). Perhaps they'd go after the Soviet islands or the Aleuts, at most.

When was oil discovered in Alaska?
Would Canada have done more in the Pacific War, not just as a surrogate for Britain but also to support Australia, but to counter an immediate perceived threat? Vancouver, for example...

[RedImperator]

It doesn't matter how the war in the Pacific goes in the early years. The Essex carriers, the B-29s, and most importantly Little Boy are coming. There's nothing the Japanese can do short of traveling back through time and assasinating George Washington to prevent this. If things go fantastically well for them, they get a free hand in the Pacific for a few years and the Pacific war goes on for longer and costs more lives and treasure.

[phongn]

Luring the US fleet out and destroying it would have left the US toothless in the Pacific; at Pearl we were able to recover most of our ships or use their scrap iron for more production. Also, Japan could have followed up either the Pearl attack or a theoretical South Pacific defeat with an invasion of Hawaii itself, neutralizing that as a base.

I doubt they'd be able to even attempt to invade Hawaii, the logistics of it are the stuff of nightmares.

[Coyote]

Yeah, I think the only chance the Empire of Japan has to survive is to leave the US alone and buddy up as an 'anti-Communist' force for the Cold War. Heck, we'd've probably given them stuff to keep the Sovies quaking, and sided with them on the Sakhalin issue.

Protesters would growl at our support of a dictatorial regime and say we were willing to sell to anyone so long as they were against Communism.

So in some respects, nothing would have changed much...

[Axis Kast]

Eventually, concern over the defensibility of Far Eastern supply lines – especially as the war in Europe wound down – would have compelled the Japanese to assault MacArthur on the Phillipines and draw the United States into a Pacific war. There is no escaping from the fact that even outside Pearl Harbor, American commanders knew a war with Japan was likely by 1945. Hell, the notion was being toyed with as early as the 1920s when “War Plan Orange” first appeared among Washington’s military elite.

The real question is whether the United States would have been better off had Pearl Harbor not occurred and the battleship remained a staple of naval combat. But either way – even had Pearl Harbor been a smashing success -, the inevitable American victory would have occurred only about a year or two later at worst. Once Roosevelt denied the Japanese American scrap metal or petrol shipments and prompted the High Command to propose an invasion of the NEI, it was the beginning of the end for Japan.

[phongn]

Yeah, I think the only chance the Empire of Japan has to survive is to leave the US alone and buddy up as an 'anti-Communist' force for the Cold War. Heck, we'd've probably given them stuff to keep the Sovies quaking, and sided with them on the Sakhalin issue.

Even then I'm not sure if we would buddy up with them - their whole Asian Empire was putting them in conflict with American aims in the Pacific.