Road Map to Peace

[Coyote]

I am wondering if we can open up a limited Israel/Palestine subject thread relating to the Road Map to Peace. I have heard a bit about it but not as much as I'd like and I am willing to bet that others here on this borad have heard stuff too. I think it might be worth pooling resources over.

I recognize that people get very opinionated about this and that passions can run hot. If flamewars develop, close the thread.

What I understand:
Abu Mazen has been elected Prime MInister for the Palestinians, replacing Arafat as the PA leader. While many Israeli gov't authorities (such as Israel's UN ambassador) are optimistic about him, they recognized that he has worked as a terrorist before and killed people, and his PhD dissertation was on comparing the Zionist movement to Nazi Socialism. Still, Israelis see him as 'a changed man' over the years and open to negotiate on such things as return of refugees.

The Road Map will press for the return of 'many' refugees but not all. It also calls for a crackdown on the fanatical religious terrorist groups. (Actually all terrorist groups but the fundie ones are among the worst).

Colin Powell is, as I write this, going to Israel, and Ariel Sharon will come to America tomorrow to discuss the plan with Bush. So far there has been only the usual grumbling about the plan (generally from those on both sides who refuse peace no matter how generous), but many people are cautiously optimistic.

What else does anyone know, and is it worth it to open a thread on this?

My apologies to the mods and Mike Wong if you decide that this in inappropriate, and I understand if it is locked.

[Darth Wong]

It seems worthwhile, as long as we can keep the subject on "ways to achieve peace" rather than "who's in the right", which is where most I/P threads inevitably go. Frankly, I suspect it will turn into a "who's right" thread almost immediately (probably after someone proposes that one side make ALL of the concessions because the other side has done nothing wrong), but the denizens might always surprise me.

I'd say the way to achieve peace is for each side to make a key concession before negotiations can begin in earnest:

1) Israel must pull out all of the settlements and pull its military forces out of the occupied territories.
2) Palestine must shut down terrorist organizations and hand their leaders over to the IDF.

Of course, it is more likely that each side will say "you go first", thus making the whole exercise pointless.

[Darth Servo]

As long as it stays on topic, sure.

[RedImperator]

The most promising thing about all this seems to be that the administration has informed the Israelis that major changes in the plan will not be discussed. The U.S. can bring tremendous pressure to bear on the Israelis if it cares to, and presumably the E.U. and Russia can do the same with the Palestinians. At this point, with the exception of Zionist radicals in Israel and over here and Islamofascist fucknuts in the Mideast, everyone wants to see an end to this fucking mess. If the first world is prepared to stick to its guns, the Israelis and Palestinians might not see any choice besides learn to get along with each other.

[Coyote]

Well, lets give it a shot. I found an article by the Israeli daily newspaper "Ha'Aretz" (posted in English on the web) in which they describe some of the likely foot-dragging tactics that will probably be used by the Sharon administration. Ha'aretz is a left-of-center newspaper.

The Road Map calls for dismantling of Settlements, although I don't know if it says how many, which ones, or how many people must be pulled out. This has been a major sticking point, and Sharon (whom I am highly critical of) likely to cause trouble as the article points out:

Delaying tactics as a strategy

Since Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) assumed office as the Palestinian prime minister, Israel has hardened its official positions and has made it clear it will not take any steps to strengthen his position until he begins fighting terror.

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is clinging to his doctrine that "there are no free lunches," and is demanding that Abu Mazen and his government's chief of security, Mohammed Dahlan, first prove their willingness to work to uproot terrorism, and demonstrate that they, rather than PA Chairman Yasser Arafat, are in control of the Palestinian Authority.

Sharon's stance arouses the suspicion that the prime minister is once again using delaying tactics, which are liable to frustrate current efforts to calm the conflict and restart diplomatic negotiations between Israel and the PA. Sharon has so far succeeded in foiling every diplomatic plan presented to him - even without explicitly rejecting them - by presenting demands preventing progress. His demand for "seven days of quiet" as a precondition for any diplomatic progress, which foiled implementation of both the Mitchell Report and the Tenet plan, has not yet been forgotten.

There is some logic to Israel's insistence that the new Palestinian government take real action to eradicate the terrorist infrastructure rather than make do with a "cease-fire" by the terrorist organizations. Such a truce would calm the situation, but also would enable Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Tanzim to continue to exist as armed militias and to exploit the cease-fire in order to amass power for a resumption of the conflict.

However, Israel could take a number of steps that would help Abu Mazen solidify his rule and acquire public legitimacy, which are necessary preconditions for a war on terrorism. It would be possible to make gestures and demonstrate a desire for diplomatic progress without undermining security even without halting Israel Defense Forces operations aimed at foiling terror attacks.

A prime example of such a gesture would be the evacuation of settlement outposts. There is no security justification for the foot-dragging by Sharon and Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz regarding the removal of illegal outposts that have been established in the West Bank.

The delays caused by endless discussions and the attempts to legalize retroactively some of the outposts demonstrate that the government is afraid of a political confrontation with the settlers and the right, preferring to leave the outposts as a bargaining chip.

Experience shows that Sharon tends to make gestures and ease life for the Palestinians only under pressure from the United States or on the eve of a trip to Washington. At such times, Israel will often expand the area in which Gaza fisherman are permitted to fish, ease restrictions on the movement of Palestinian goods and people, and expound on visions such as a "Marshall Plan" for rehabilitating the Palestinian economy.

Under heavy pressure from the White House, Sharon even agreed to return frozen Palestinian tax revenues collected by Israel to the PA. But after the photo op with U.S. President George W. Bush, the status quo ante is usually restored.

As the departure date for his eighth meeting with Bush approaches, Sharon will presumably once again take steps to ease life in the territories, and may even set a date for a meeting with Abu Mazen. This, however, misses the point. Israel must aspire to an agreement with the Palestinians not merely to placate the American administration until the next crisis. It must extend a hand to Abu Mazen and hope for his success so that the moderates on the Palestinian side will be strengthened.

It is vital that the US maintain pressure on Sharon to follow through on the Road Map, or else it will become another pointless gesture...

[Coyote]

Here should be a copy of the Road Map itself:

http://www.mideastweb.org/quartetrm3.htm

[EmperorChrostas the Cruel]

I wish, I hope, I doubt.

[Alex Moon]

I doubt it will do much good. Both sides will use the first provacation to scrap it.

Personally, I think Bush should pick three Israeli settlements and demand that Israel show it's commitment to peace by removing the settlers within 48 hours. If they don't we start a little urban renew via B-52. Once the Israelis start pulling out we turn to the Palestinian PM and tell him to expel the terrorist organizations or we let the Israelis off the leash once and for all.

[Vympel]

I doubt it will do much good. Both sides will use the first provacation to scrap it.

Personally, I think Bush should pick three Israeli settlements and demand that Israel show it's commitment to peace by removing the settlers within 48 hours. If they don't we start a little urban renew via B-52. Once the Israelis start pulling out we turn to the Palestinian PM and tell him to expel the terrorist organizations or we let the Israelis off the leash once and for all.

Well you get points under the clinically insane column

[Sea Skimmer]

All I've been hearing is "Road Map to Hell" is a more fitting name. It appears that the plan goes back down the same road that lead to the current phase of the conflict.

[Gil Hamilton]

I doubt it's going to work. Both Israel and Palestine are stuck pointing to the other side and going "This is all your fault! You stop first, then we will stop!" to settle anything.

[Alex Moon]

I doubt it will do much good. Both sides will use the first provacation to scrap it.

Personally, I think Bush should pick three Israeli settlements and demand that Israel show it's commitment to peace by removing the settlers within 48 hours. If they don't we start a little urban renew via B-52. Once the Israelis start pulling out we turn to the Palestinian PM and tell him to expel the terrorist organizations or we let the Israelis off the leash once and for all.

Well you get points under the clinically insane column

Then I would fit right in the Middle East.

[Vympel]

Then I would fit right in the Middle East.

hehehe

*licks finger*

*tsssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss*

[Sokar]

I really do hope that it works, but I have my doubts.
Both sides are frozen in "You move first" mode, which means nothing changes and the bodycount rises. Its such a quagmire, with to much pain and hate on both sides for an easy solution. What we really need is a year or two of semi-normalcy, no attacks, no raids, no death and destruction in everyones front yard and let time heal many of the wounds and then iniate a peace process.

I hope we can do it finally, I really dont ewant to have to teache my students in the future about the Second Isralie and or Palestinian Holocaust.

[Gil Hamilton]

That's the rub. How do you get two years with no attacks by one side on the other? If anyone in the Israel or Palestine attacks the other, whether they are connected to any authority or not, the other side holds all of them responsible. That's what's constantly bollocks peace talks in the past. Israel makes a demand that they will only talk if there are absolutely positively no terrorist attacks against them, but they know full well that no Palestinean authority could possibly meet that requirement, since no authority in Palestine has the power or in many cases the inclination to completely lock down every would-be terrorist; there is always going to be someone who will attempt something whether the authorities in Palestine like it or not. Even if a Palestinean authority emerged that would be willing to sit on the country long enough to make a favorable agreement with Israel, he's a dead man walking, as there are so many people in Palestine that would call him a traitor and assassinate him.

I can't think of a solution. It's a catch-22 that neither side will let work out.

[Tsyroc]

All I've been hearing is "Road Map to Hell" is a more fitting name. It appears that the plan goes back down the same road that lead to the current phase of the conflict.

Que Music

I think there are too many people who have to suck it up, grow up and give up on their beliefs/grievances for peace to really work at this time. Maybe a few years ago it might have had a chance but right now the only way I can see things even begining to work is if Israel pulls out of some of the settlements and stays out regardless of whether terroist activity stops. If terrorism continues or gets worse then they can go back to their hard-assed line but they still shouldn't go back into the abandoned settlements or start anymore.

[AdmiralKanos]

As far as the Israelis are concerned, the majority of the settlements aren't on the table anyway. The Americans can bark all they like, but until they show a bit of bite behind that bark, both sides will ignore this peace plan just like all the others.

[Ancalagon]

Call me pessimistic but the Road Map to Peace doesn't do much for me... I mean look at it, it has less specifics than Oslo and look how well that worked :rolleyes: Much too general and hopefull in my opinion. I'm glad that the current US admin is finally stepping into the Israel Palistine debate, but they need to really flesh out this plan....

What settlements will be dismantled... who will controll the water sources (very important, as can be seen my Sharon's land grab, last month with the wall)... who will controll the border with Jordan? Does Palistine controll its own airspace? How will connections with Gaza be done?

More meat, less wishes....

[XPViking]

2) Palestine must shut down terrorist organizations and hand their leaders over to the IDF.

Didn't Israel and the PLO jointly hunt down terrorist organizations in the past but failed? It has been a while since I looked closely at that part of the world. As well, I'm wondering it that would involve Arafat being handed over since I think some Israelis believe the PLO is just a terrorist organization.

XPViking

[Ted]

2) Palestine must shut down terrorist organizations and hand their leaders over to the IDF.

Didn't Israel and the PLO jointly hunt down terrorist organizations in the past but failed? It has been a while since I looked closely at that part of the world. As well, I'm wondering it that would involve Arafat being handed over since I think some Israelis believe the PLO is just a terrorist organization.

XPViking

They tried to, but as the PLO was using it's police force, which was steadily destroyed by the Israeli Army, so the PLO couldn't help in that.

[Saurencaerthai]

I don't think peace will come even within five years. The political system of the Middeast is very much a different breed from the Western politics we know which relies VERY heavily on diplomatic co-existance. I think it would be safe to say that it is very much a "my tribe versus your tribe" style of politics in the middeast, and thus, approaching negotiations and such with western tactics may proove to be a rather daunting task.

We've seen oh so many cease-fires and doccuments such as the Oslo accords violated so many times. It seems to me that there might need for a change in tactics, but in the mean time, any attempt to bring some calm to that area is good, I think.