Would it be better if Bush failed?

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The Duchess of Zeon
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Post by The Duchess of Zeon »

Patrick Degan wrote:
I haven't read such overwrought horseshit since my last browse through Cold War propaganda. Do you ever fucking listen to yourself when you indulge in this spew?! Your entire position turns upon such a cartoonish view of an entire people (or group of peoples) that it beggars description.
Stop for a moment and listen to what I've said as well. There's no "cartoonish view of a group of peoples" - Look at the context. I'm sorry that you cannot comprehend the difference between western civilization and Islamic civilization as producing such a disparity, but it does. Not only do differences between cultures and civilizations exist, but they can be so stark as to preclude ready understanding. You prefer to imagine by study of what these differences create in the interaction as a reduction of some vague "enemy" into a propaganda set-piece character without real motivations, but rather ones I've projected upon it.
You assume a monolithic mindset among a billion human beings which has never operated in any culture in any period of human history, attribute to this monolithic collective powers and abilities far beyond those that have been observed to exist, and a unity of purpose which is also beyond anything observed in Arab culture in 1300 years.
Why must you persist in this? Why must you confuse potential with reality!? The two are entirely different things! The culture of the Islamic world is one entirely attuned to what I have stated. I have outlined, in principle, the threat: not as exists but what we may face, and what the current enemies we face desire us to face. The argument is based upon facts which illuminate potentials; the demand, then, is for action which minimizes the consequences of the potentials.
And entirely upon this rickety framework have you rested your hopes for a War of Salvation to save you from a new, global Wahabbist Dark Age which has no chance to unfold in any real world due to economic, military, and cultural factors you have not even bothered to consider in all your projections.
There are considerable cultural factors which support it! There could have been a new Arab Caliphate under the Hussein family--there nearly was. The movement for one very much exists throughout the Muslim world, and is commonly seen as a solution to their problems. It is Osama's goal to restore the Caliphate, and their may be indications of his desire to do more--to proclaim himself Mahdi. Certainly another Salafi already has, despite their theology.

Your economic and military factors are based upon a rational calculus, which is reasonable. This calculus, however, only applies in the present day and to the present terms, however, and does not take into account the possibility of demographic trends affecting parts of Europe and their allegiance in such a conflict, which is a possibility by the end of the century, nor the potential for economic or military shifts.

Most importantly, the threat we are facing is ultimately irrational and likely to make an irrational calculus. The goal is to minimize the damage to our own interests, and secondarily to humanity as a whole (as an economic power, such a secondary concern usually follows as automatic). With such a goal we cannot allow their power to reach such a point that their defeat would require a great cost. It is better to act now.
And from what I see, at the core of all this is only one thing:

Fear.

You try making a brave noise with that "nose to the grindwheel" farrago at the end of your post, but I don't see courage in hawking for an unnecessary war against a phantom menace. You're terrified, Duchess. You're scared right down to the marrow in your bones. A terrible way to apprehend the world.

To paraphrase T.S. Eliot, you've accepted fear in a handfull of dust.
Of course I'm afraid. I'm quite afraid of the consequences of the failure of this -- I look at the potential for the future and I shudder. There are times when I consider committing suicide because of the apparent hopelessness of our cause in the face of the blatant apathy of people like yourself.

I consider the treatment a person like myself would have under the rule of those we fight - and I am deathly, deathly afraid.

Emotions, however, must be set aside in the realm of the political. The rational pursuit of power--how can we improve the position of the State and of the People in the most efficient manner--is the only relevant consideration. So every emotion, every desire, must be set aside.

You have failed to do this in looking at this world. Many people on this board imagine that there is some higher morality to politics. You think that emotion or ethics or morality should even be allowed to influence politics. Politics is to cruel of a beast for that. I understand this, and you can be assured that my personal fear--and what I might desire to do to assuage it, which could be far more instinctive and visceral than an economical approach--is restrained in the calculus.

To quote:
The individual may say for himself: "Fiat justitia, pereat mundus (Let justice be done, even if the world perish)," but the state has no right to say so in the name of those who are in its care. Both individual and state must judge political actions by universal moral principles, such as that of liberty. Yet while the individual has a moral right to sacrifice himself in defense of such a moral principle, the state has no right to let its moral disapprobation of the infringement of liberty get in the way of successful political action, itself inspired by the moral principle of national survival. There can be no political morality without prudence; that is, without consideration of the political consequences of seemingly moral action. Realism, then, considers prudence--the weighing of the consequences of alternative political actions--to be the supreme virtue in politics. Ethics in the abstract judges action by its conformity with the moral law; political ethics judges action by its political consequences. Classical and medieval philosophers knew this, and so did Lincoln when he said:

I do the very best I know how, the very best I can, and I mean to keep doing so until the end. If the end brings me out all right, what is said against me won't amount to anything. If the end brings me out wrong, ten angels swearing I was right would make no difference.
(excerpt, Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations.)


And that really is the clarity of the matter. If I am correct, and a broad course involving further action to spread democracy, as I propose, is followed - We shall reap the bounty of many more democratic trading partners and in the long run our leaders of this time shall be remembered as great victors and liberators, while a dangerous threat is removed before it could rise to power.

If I am wrong there are many degrees of it: We could still see the bounty of victory, without the threat being removed, and it shall be for centuries a debate between you moralizers as to if those killed in the effort matched those who would have been killed by all the petty-tyrants of the region, and in the famine imposed by their grand projects and in the building of palaces and armaments.

Or if through hubris we fail and are thrown down? Then those who supported the course shall be thoroughly contempted and reviled for all time, I expect nothing less. But there is much uncertainty in this field, nothing can be known for sure.

Now, if the course often proposed here is followed? The same range of possibilities exist, if different ones--but, again, in failure you will only be reviled. Morality is no standard that someone in the political realm has ever been judged by, at least the successful -- It is a footnote for the failures and does not halt their condemnation, while for the successes it merely adds a bit to the shine of their accolades.

So, I can either apply this standard of abstract ethics, or the situation can be analyzed rationally and based on real and historically understood principles. Clearly, one can only do the later, for though the later is not sure success, it does offer a better chance of understanding the swirling mists of the political realm, to ride through them, than to try and cut against them by holding forth intractable principle. So this has been done and my conclusions have been made, to support the course which has been decided upon by our present administration, imperfect as it is but close enough to offer success by acceptable margins.
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Post by The Duchess of Zeon »

I retract it all, I retract it all... We are perhaps in the blindness of a frenzy now, and if it's true than I've just proven myself the worst of the lot.
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Post by The Duchess of Zeon »

I apologize for the delay. However, I should now give an explanation for that odd comment. I was reading through a book - Hans J. Morgenthau's Politics Among Nations, which I had recently acquired, and came to one of those appropriately distressing quotes, of the sort which shakes a belief that needs to be shaken, and forces one to reevaluate both approach, and indeed one's firm convictions.

Morgenthau, of course, is one of the great political realists of the 20th century, and certainly can be remembered with some notoreity in the context of WWII and its potential aftermath. Curiously, Hans Joachim Morgenthau was indeed born in Germany; but I digress. Regardless, for a man who put the advancement of the nation and the nation's duty to defend its people, as principles to be held over others, when it comes to the field of politics, he is naturally equated a reputation in conservative circles, and the theory of realism held there in high repute.

Let that not change, and let realism indeed be understood as the ideal of statecraft to strive for. There is, however, something I must now consider:
5. Political realism refuses to identify the moral aspirations of a particular nation with the moral laws that govern the universe. As it distinguishes between truth and opinion, so it distinguishes between truth and idolatry. All nations are tempted--and few have been able to resist the temptation for long--to clothe their own particular aspirations and actions in the moral purposes of the universe. To know that nations are subject to the moral law is one thing, while to pretend to know with certainty what is good and evil in the relations among nations is quite another. There is a world of difference between the belief that all nations stand under the judgment of God, inscrutable to the human mind, and the blasphemous conviction that God is always on one's side and that what one wills oneself cannot fail to be willed by God also.

The lighthearted equation between a particular nationalism and the counsels of Providence is morally indefensible, for it is that very sin of pride against which the Greek tragedians and the Biblical prophets have warned rulers and ruled. That equation is also politically pernicious, for it is liable to engender the distortion in judgment which, in the blindness of crusading frenzy, destroys nations and civilizations--in the name of moral principle, ideal, or God himself.
I think those two paragraphs from the book can explain my sudden hesitancy to continue this debate, at least until I have had time to read it in full, or perhaps for longer, and I have considered other things and other matters.
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Post by Enforcer Talen »

you are truly a fascinating individual.
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Post by Gil Hamilton »

I really don't see Pakistan as a threat. Say they go Islamofascist next Monday, and are extreme enough to actually wave their nuclear dicks at the West. Later that week, I'd say about Thursday, India walks across the border with twice again their manpower and material (possibly more, since I doubt Pakistans dictator du jour will fall in a bloodless coup), bashes their heads in, and annexes the Pakistani part of Kashmir for good measure. No, Pakistan is far too locked up dealing with India to be much of a threat to anyone else.

And just to be safe, I think we better pop Marina with a valium and duck tape mittens to her hands for a while. That fixes everything. :)
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Post by Crown »

Marina you truly are a fascinating individual. Don't take things too seriously, this is an internet forum, not a life and death struggle. Oh and if worst came to worst, I would lay my life down so that you could live the life you want, because that's the kind of guy I am. :wink:
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Post by The Duchess of Zeon »

Crown wrote:Marina you truly are a fascinating individual. Don't take things too seriously, this is an internet forum, not a life and death struggle. Oh and if worst came to worst, I would lay my life down so that you could live the life you want, because that's the kind of guy I am. :wink:
Here's an interesting secret of mine, then: I met the Turkish friend who instilled within me my Turkophile nature discussing a hypothetical alt-history in which the Byzantine Empire doesn't fall (which, to add another contradiction, he eagerly helped me with), and as you may know from the Writer's Forum, if I had to choose one or the other - Byzantium wins every time.

I have been a fanatic, a total fanatic, since 9/11, I hope you'll understand. On the first anniversary, I did not sleep for two days and in that time period composed three chapters (or, about fifty pages) of De Imperatoribus Galacticis in a manic frenzy; I did not dare let myself rest on, nor concetrate upon, the events that had taken place. I suppose you could say that it is completely ridiculous, then - not only to take something to that level, but then to turn around and come crushing down from it in headlong flight.

I'm not really sure if I have. But what was the impetous of reaction must now be tested against a vitally injected doubt. I am very thankful for Morgenthau, indeed... People never listen to those except that they are attuned to hear: I have probably heard an encapsulation of those words before but ignored them. I had to listen from that source; thus the reaction. Now, again, I realize how eternally ignorant I will be, always striving for knowledge and never reaching it! Grossly stupid, never able to match the bounds of learning, to fill myself with all the treasures of the globe, every facet of every thing. It is indeed enough to make one wish to die, were it not that one then would die knowing even less.

So I must again study, and try to see if what has been done was a projection of eschatological madness and national hubris, or a genuine effort of rational calculus.
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Post by Patrick Degan »

Well... in light of what appears to be a reevaluation of perspective on Duchess' part, courtesy obliges me to withold making any rebuttal for the time being. I will respect her wishes in this regard.
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Post by Joe »

This is just about the best thread we've ever had in N&P, by the way.
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Post by Andrew J. »

So...let me try and understand. You're saying that you've suddenly become afraid that you're projecting your own goals and desires for the USA onto "the moral purposes of the universe." Is that a reasonable interpretation?
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Post by 0.1 »

Going back onto the original subject, I think the general consensus is that Bush is likely to fail at his attempt to bring peace to the middle east. Mostly because it is not in his power to do so. And while no one specifically wants to see him fail because of the political orientation of his adminstration, not too many people expect anything else or would be sorry that if he did fail.

This of course brings up an interesting idea as far as middle east peace is concerned. I would go so far to say that what you need in the middle east right now is some massive blood letting, not more peace talks.

The thought behind this is that people negotiate for peace when it is in their best interest to do so. The Palestinians (and to a lesser extent, the Israelis) have managed to train themselves into thinking that they have more to lose by negotiating. The combatants have in their mind set that it is better to go down swinging than sit down and hammer out any reasonable agreement. This is partly due to the environment that the Palestinians (and again to a lesser extent the Israelis) live in, as well as the indoctrination on both sides.

The Palestinians thinks of themselves as freedom fighters liberating their homeland at any cost, and negotiations will not net themselves a better deal. (one only has to look at the mass of Hamas supporters and the rhetoric to obtain confirmation) The Israelis thinks of themselves as victims, who is asking for more trouble if they start negotiating and don't hit back whenever the next suicide bombing occurs. (See any statements from the Israeli government regarding terrorism) Under these conditions, there is very little opportunity for any negotiated settlements, since all it takes is one suicide bomber to upset the whole thing.

If a massive conflict (rather than this dull intifada) broke out in the area, there should be two effects. First, after enough people has been killed, the parties themselves will likely realize that negotiations are better than armed conflict (even on a low level scale). Second, a conflict of this nature will likely kill off most of the more vocal combatants (probably mostly on one side) and may eventually result in a negotiated settlement. I point to the fact that in the grand scheme of things, the Israelis probably have more to lose in such a conflict, and may realize the need to negotiate sooner. It would be tougher on the Palestinians, who mostly have been led to the belief that negotiations is not a possibility.
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Post by The Duchess of Zeon »

Where will you get massive bloodletting in the mid-east right now if Bush failed? The Israelis have the Palestinians and even if we withdrew our aide, that isn't going to change the fact that they have a nuclear arsenal; that insures their survival quite nicely, because the Arab states don't dare combine against them. I suppose you could see a revolt of the Palestinians, but to what end? Against, the nukes would protect Israel, and disengagement would see.. What? The Palestinians slaughtered? Which results in more land for Israel to use to survive upon? Well, that would make the resulting embargo less effective.

The problem, I've contended before, is that we bother to negotiate with the Palestinians at all. Why? The Palestinian Authority is completely intractable, but worse yes, much of what it's supposed to do has been supplanted by HAMAS. Either negotiate an agreement between Israel and the surrounding Arab states and then have all of them working together force the Palestinians to accept it--thus removing the terrorist groups (and hence any terror acts they commit during the process) from the equation--or just negotiate directly with HAMAS. If we could get a peace deal with HAMAS, it might actually stick. OTOH, we'd probably have to wait for HAMAS' current leadership to die, and other leaders who are more involved in their--dare I say it--humanitarian work, to come to the fore.

Again, time is the constraint there. Negotiating with the Arab States would be far more effective, but requires their willingness to create a deal for Palestine and then force it on Palestine. That sort of willingness itself would be a forced one, but it's still probably the best option. (Of course, as you can tell from above, I've never believed in not negotiating with terrorist groups - HAMAS and Hezbollah certainly have more power than some microstates that we maintain Consulates with, and we shouldn't make some kind of show of righteous indignation of ignoring their existence if benefit could be had by approaching them directly.)

The thing is that in a few decades this entire problem is going to boil over. In about eighty-five years the oil in Arabia will run out. That region will peak at a population of 760 million (though this assumes a falling birthrate, which may be optimistic if there is no change in government and religious attitudes): excluding Turkey, including Iran and Egypt. The whole of Islam will have more than a billion and a half people..

And many of the gulf-states, being essentially deserts, import their food already. Egypt is suffering silting problems from the Aswan High Dam; hopefully this will be solved. The heydays of Mesopotamia as an agricultural centre of the world are gone, though with the two rivers and some serious effort, it could again flower. All of this, though, will require real effort to achieve. Or, of course, they can keep doing what they're already doing - For the most part, feeding their excess populace on imports from other countries.

What's going to happen when they run out of oil? The current system in the mid-east will not last the 21st century for the simple reason that a combination of demographics and the extant of the oil reserves won't let it. The question is what happens when it goes. Regardless of the answer, it will be a very great human tragedy.
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Post by The Duchess of Zeon »

Andrew J. wrote:So...let me try and understand. You're saying that you've suddenly become afraid that you're projecting your own goals and desires for the USA onto "the moral purposes of the universe." Is that a reasonable interpretation?
No, it is not. In fact, it is completely wrong.

I'll summarize:

The quote seems almost designed to cut into the heart of a crusade-style myth, an epic battle format like the one that our current conflict has been placed in. You understand this? It is the height of hubris to declare war upon a concept like evil; it is not our's to judge what is evil and put ourselves against it.

So the question must now be considered, in light of the doubt all of this shrouding that the rhetoric of the administration has caused, if the invasion of Iraq is really justified. Syria funds terrorism. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia funds terrorism. Iran funds terrorism. Does Iraq? Had anyone heard of these ties before 9/11?

Why is the funding of terrorism even relevant unless the terrorism is directed against us? That would remove Syria and perhaps Iran.

Really, our target is the KSA. It has always been and must always be the KSA. And the administration needs to justify the fact that after Afghanistan we did not proceed against this nation, this spewer of hate propaganda and funder of Salafis - home of fifteen of the nineteen hijackers.

Why Iraq first? I have tried to construct reasons for it; now, however, I'll confess that they're cast into doubt. There was always a quiet recognition of the fact that we might have been able to use 9/11 to reopen good relations with Saddam Hussein - a secularist - and begin funding him. At the same time, we could have withdrawn from the KSA. Giving him leave to invade it, but keeping our troops in Kuwait and warning him off of that nation and the other Gulf States, his acquisitions would be limited: and to avoid the law of unintended consequences, relations would also have to be thawed with Iran, since a strong Saddam and their own nation weak would unite the people of Iran behind its leaders.

There may be perfectly rational reasons why this or something of a similiar sort was not done, for the good of the State. But I must consider the matter, now, and carefully--for if they cannot be found, then the invasion stands condemned as the folly of hubris, and the next century will be a wild and bloody ride indeed.
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Post by Andrew J. »

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:
Andrew J. wrote:So...let me try and understand. You're saying that you've suddenly become afraid that you're projecting your own goals and desires for the USA onto "the moral purposes of the universe." Is that a reasonable interpretation?
No, it is not. In fact, it is completely wrong.

I'll summarize:

The quote seems almost designed to cut into the heart of a crusade-style myth, an epic battle format like the one that our current conflict has been placed in. You understand this? It is the height of hubris to declare war upon a concept like evil; it is not our's to judge what is evil and put ourselves against it.

So the question must now be considered, in light of the doubt all of this shrouding that the rhetoric of the administration has caused, if the invasion of Iraq is really justified. Syria funds terrorism. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia funds terrorism. Iran funds terrorism. Does Iraq? Had anyone heard of these ties before 9/11?

Why is the funding of terrorism even relevant unless the terrorism is directed against us? That would remove Syria and perhaps Iran.

Really, our target is the KSA. It has always been and must always be the KSA. And the administration needs to justify the fact that after Afghanistan we did not proceed against this nation, this spewer of hate propaganda and funder of Salafis - home of fifteen of the nineteen hijackers.

Why Iraq first? I have tried to construct reasons for it; now, however, I'll confess that they're cast into doubt. There was always a quiet recognition of the fact that we might have been able to use 9/11 to reopen good relations with Saddam Hussein - a secularist - and begin funding him. At the same time, we could have withdrawn from the KSA. Giving him leave to invade it, but keeping our troops in Kuwait and warning him off of that nation and the other Gulf States, his acquisitions would be limited: and to avoid the law of unintended consequences, relations would also have to be thawed with Iran, since a strong Saddam and their own nation weak would unite the people of Iran behind its leaders.

There may be perfectly rational reasons why this or something of a similiar sort was not done, for the good of the State. But I must consider the matter, now, and carefully--for if they cannot be found, then the invasion stands condemned as the folly of hubris, and the next century will be a wild and bloody ride indeed.
Okay, thank you for the clarification.

As for "Why Iraq?" the answer is simple-we weakened them in 1991, a good deal of Hussein's population hates him to begin with, so there will be a lot less hostility from the general poulace, and the Iraqi military was pretty pathetic even without our intervention. The fact of the matter is that we've wnated to invade Iraq to finish the job ever since Bush I screwed it up, but the government hasn't had enough clout to invade a country for no'we reason. In the post 9-11 era, however, the sudden wave of patriotism has given the government the power to do what it's wanted to do since 1992.
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Post by 0.1 »

Duchess,

Reality is that there is not a plausible way for a massive blood letting to happen. The Israelis are much more capable militarily than any of their neighbors or all of them put together. The government of Israel is a deomcracy, which might turn a blind eye to the plight of the Palestinians, but would never sanction open slaughter. (after all, how hard is it to drop some cluster munition at the next Hamas rally... the answer is: technically, it's each, politically, it's impossible)

In terms of negotiations, the Palestinians has to be included, in part because the other Arab countries don't really want the Palestinians within their own borders, and in many ways, I don't think that the Palestinians trust those other Arab leaders to represent their interest in the first place. Now, you might say that the current leaders (including Arafat) are worthless, and given their lack of ability or willingness to do anything, that's probably not far off the mark. But you have to negotiate with someone there. It would be nice though if Arafat had an accident, but the Israelis will not touch him.

In reality, it would be nice if every member of Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Al Aqsa Martyrs brigade had heart attacks at the same time. But simply taking out the leaders for this generation won't do anything, as the anti-Israeli feelings will simply continue at the lower echelons. And nature abhors a vacuum. More than anything, the elimination of thesse groups and their supporters will enhance the prospect for peace in the area.

Now, as far as withdrawl of U.S. support, you'll notice that no one even attempted to try to argue why it would be a reasonable thing to do. Mainly because it is an idiotic concept, remove U.S. support means no more U.S. influence. And if no one can influence Israel, you would have an even more intractable government. And I believe as you do that the Israel as a country will survive the withdrawl of U.S. support. The support makes influencing them possible, take that away, and they stop listening.
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