How long will the USA stay on top?

[Joe]

Two Civil Wars is quite a conservative number.

[BlkbrryTheGreat]

You really can't count previous wars in Europe as civil wars as Europe wasn't a united country in previous time periods.

[RedImperator]

In modern history, anyway. And I'm only counting wars that involve most or all of the great powers. So you could throw the Napoleonic Wars in there, too. And...oh Christ, am I supposed to keep track of all that continent's slapfights and snits and shit-flinging contests? At any rate, the point is they've wrecked their whole continent so many times they might be tired of it by now.

[Vympel]

Fifty years, then the world will probably go multipolar.

[Knife]

Hard to tell, if the EU can come to grips with itself and become an actual 'country' instead of a coglomorate, then they stand a chance of becomeing the alpha male. However, all the pitfalls of becoming an major nation stand before the EU. If civil war does not destroy it, then the European Union stands a chance of becoming the next super power.

China has all the man power it needs to become something, some sort of civil war needs to happen, either cultural rebellion or out right war, too shape them into a economic power house.

The US has all of the advantages now, and the only way they will lose 'the power' is for the US to fall to anarchy while a competater advances. If the US does not go into anarch, then they will not allow another to advance too far to challenge them. As always, IMHO.

[LordShaithis]

You people are all stupid. Everyone knows Jesus is coming back in six years to be the King of All Nations.

[LordShaithis]

Why did I run into a precisely identical poll to this one on the Superpower boards just two minutes later?

[Stuart Mackey]

snip

The US has all of the advantages now, and the only way they will lose 'the power' is for the US to fall to anarchy while a competater advances. If the US does not go into anarch, then they will not allow another to advance too far to challenge them. As always, IMHO.

I rather think that anarchy will never happen in the US, there is no reason for it. As to if the US will loose 'The Power', that is realy the same as why the Spanish lost 'The Power' or the Duch or Britian. Soner or later someone will become more powerfull than you, not that you will loose anything.

[Cpt_Frank]

I don't see the US going down in flames or something. But it's entirely possible they won't be as important anymore in 50 years as they're now.

[fgalkin]

I'd say around 50 years.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Knife]

snip

The US has all of the advantages now, and the only way they will lose 'the power' is for the US to fall to anarchy while a competater advances. If the US does not go into anarch, then they will not allow another to advance too far to challenge them. As always, IMHO.

I rather think that anarchy will never happen in the US, there is no reason for it. As to if the US will loose 'The Power', that is realy the same as why the Spanish lost 'The Power' or the Duch or Britian. Soner or later someone will become more powerfull than you, not that you will loose anything.

True, I am not worried about someone taking it away, yet some one will have to become more powerful and the US will ....discourage....such an endeavor. The only free way to get there is to have the US 'distracted' while some one else gobbles power while the US is not able to prevent it.

And again, true, that I doubt the US will fall into anarchy. Yet I don't see how anyone will edge above the US in power with out the US being distracted with domestic affairs.

[Pablo Sanchez]

And again, true, that I doubt the US will fall into anarchy. Yet I don't see how anyone will edge above the US in power with out the US being distracted with domestic affairs.

Simple economics. With the natural and human resources available to China or Russia all they need to due is mobilize them and they'll make the USA second fiddle. This would take decades, but the US would have no way of stopping it.

[Knife]

And again, true, that I doubt the US will fall into anarchy. Yet I don't see how anyone will edge above the US in power with out the US being distracted with domestic affairs.

Simple economics. With the natural and human resources available to China or Russia all they need to due is mobilize them and they'll make the USA second fiddle. This would take decades, but the US would have no way of stopping it.

While I don't discount the possibility, those with power are not exactly going to go down easily. Thats why I said that if the US is distracted with internal strife. The US will zealosy defend her power and try its damndist to prevent the EU or China or Russia from advancing above her.

The US will not always be on top, but it will be a hell of a fight to knock her off the mound.

[Pablo Sanchez]

The US will not always be on top, but it will be a hell of a fight to knock her off the mound.

What would she do, then? Start a war with no casus belli? Begin a trade war that could hurt the US as badly as anyone else?

[Knife]

The US will not always be on top, but it will be a hell of a fight to knock her off the mound.

What would she do, then? Start a war with no casus belli? Begin a trade war that could hurt the US as badly as anyone else?

Start a war without a cow belly? (sorry, read that in a book recently) Anyway, ya. Since when has it been imprudent of a country to start a war to preserve its interests? I am not saying that I would approve of said war, but it would be an option of the power brokers. Lets face it, those in power hate to lose power. Now eventualy, they will but they will fight to perserve it for as long as possible and usually damn the consequences.

[Aeolus]

Fifty years, then the world will probably go multipolar.

I agree with this

[Stuart Mackey]

snip

The US has all of the advantages now, and the only way they will lose 'the power' is for the US to fall to anarchy while a competater advances. If the US does not go into anarch, then they will not allow another to advance too far to challenge them. As always, IMHO.

I rather think that anarchy will never happen in the US, there is no reason for it. As to if the US will loose 'The Power', that is realy the same as why the Spanish lost 'The Power' or the Duch or Britian. Soner or later someone will become more powerfull than you, not that you will loose anything.

True, I am not worried about someone taking it away, yet some one will have to become more powerful and the US will ....discourage....such an endeavor. The only free way to get there is to have the US 'distracted' while some one else gobbles power while the US is not able to prevent it.

And again, true, that I doubt the US will fall into anarchy. Yet I don't see how anyone will edge above the US in power with out the US being distracted with domestic affairs.

All it takes is economics, thats how the USA got where it is. I do not see the US obliterating a nation for being economically succesfull.

[Aeolus]

I rather think that anarchy will never happen in the US, there is no reason for it. As to if the US will loose 'The Power', that is realy the same as why the Spanish lost 'The Power' or the Duch or Britian. Soner or later someone will become more powerfull than you, not that you will loose anything.

True, I am not worried about someone taking it away, yet some one will have to become more powerful and the US will ....discourage....such an endeavor. The only free way to get there is to have the US 'distracted' while some one else gobbles power while the US is not able to prevent it.

And again, true, that I doubt the US will fall into anarchy. Yet I don't see how anyone will edge above the US in power with out the US being distracted with domestic affairs.

All it takes is economics, thats how the USA got where it is. I do not see the US obliterating a nation for being economically succesfull.

The Spainish, Dutch, and English largely depended on their colonies for their wealth and power. The United States is a lot bigger and has very few colonies. Once the European Empires lost their colonies they did not have a lot to fall back on.
Yes China has the potintial to be as powerful as america in a few decades. But Europe has very serious demographic problems which most people on the list don't seem to really grasp. The shrinking population is NOT a good thing...it means fewer young workers trying to take care of growing numbers of non working elderly. That means less money to spend on the military, on science, and on basic infrastructure. Adding eastern europe helps some but it's just delaying the problem. Most European nations do not assimilate forigners easily. in 50 years Eoropes population will be smaller the the US's now, and The US should be closing in on 500 million (basically what Europe has with eastern Europe now.) To make matter alot worse The US's population will be young while Europes will be old. This is going to be very difficult to overcome and there will be little monoey or resources to challenge the US. Let alone the US and China.

[Patrick Degan]

Anyway, ya. Since when has it been imprudent of a country to start a war to preserve its interests?

Earth. Japan, 1941.

[BlkbrryTheGreat]

Anyway, ya. Since when has it been imprudent of a country to start a war to preserve its interests?

Earth. Japan, 1941.

Bad example, Japan had 5 percent of the World's industrial capacity during WWII. The United States had over 50 percent while GB had another 10%. Not exactly a winning situation.

[AdmiralKanos]

Just as corporations tend to consolidate over time, I suspect geographical regions will too. I suspect that the US, Mexico, and Canada will virtually merge in the future, perhaps incorporating some of South America as well into an Americas trading bloc. This will compete with a Asia-Pacific trading bloc, a European trading bloc, etc. And of course, you'll have the people in the Middle East, coasting on their oil and going nowhere.

[Axis Kast]

The United States will lose hyperpower status inside the next fifty years owing to a new era of multipolarity.

Within one hundred years, we'll be fighting commercial battles with both the Chinese and Europeans as Russia struggles to stand without attracting too much attention.

I fear we'll have to play second-fiddle into the foreseeable future barring any unforseen events preventing China's inevitable rise.

I don't think we'd ever be invaded - or even challanged effectively in our own hemisphere. We'll keep a stranglehold on most high-technology. But our string of allies will erode.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

The United States will lose hyperpower status inside the next fifty years owing to a new era of multipolarity.

Within one hundred years, we'll be fighting commercial battles with both the Chinese and Europeans as Russia struggles to stand without attracting too much attention.

I fear we'll have to play second-fiddle into the foreseeable future barring any unforseen events preventing China's inevitable rise.

I don't think we'd ever be invaded - or even challanged effectively in our own hemisphere. We'll keep a stranglehold on most high-technology. But our string of allies will erode.

The United States would indeed have little to fear from invaders. However, the United States would be vulnerable to an attack on it's electronic infrastructure. A terrorist with a little know-how and enough trips to Radio Shack can build a bomb that will kill every civilian computer in, say, the city of New York. And that vulnerability will only get worrse.

And, eventually, the US would have to contend with the rising economic power of Brazil in South America.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Hard to tell, if the EU can come to grips with itself and become an actual 'country' instead of a coglomorate, then they stand a chance of becomeing the alpha male. However, all the pitfalls of becoming an major nation stand before the EU. If civil war does not destroy it, then the European Union stands a chance of becoming the next super power.

China has all the man power it needs to become something, some sort of civil war needs to happen, either cultural rebellion or out right war, too shape them into a economic power house.

The US has all of the advantages now, and the only way they will lose 'the power' is for the US to fall to anarchy while a competater advances. If the US does not go into anarch, then they will not allow another to advance too far to challenge them. As always, IMHO.

If one didn't mind plunging the world into an even deeper global depression, one could remove the United States, Japan, or much of Europe as a power with relatively limited casualties. Thank the prevasiveness of high-technology for that. For that matter, be thankful the terrorists are much more focused on killing Americans rather than killing their computers and cellphones . . . since even some whacko hiding out in a cave can build an EMP bomb these days.

[Sea Skimmer]

If one didn't mind plunging the world into an even deeper global depression, one could remove the United States, Japan, or much of Europe as a power with relatively limited casualties. Thank the prevasiveness of high-technology for that. For that matter, be thankful the terrorists are much more focused on killing Americans rather than killing their computers and cellphones . . . since even some whacko hiding out in a cave can build an EMP bomb these days.

So people have said for the past decade. And yet it has not happened a single time and there are plenty of people who would be glad to build and use one. Funny how something columnist claim is so easy to build hasn't even been fielded by the US military.

Increasingly civilian equipment is being shielded anyway.