How long will the USA stay on top?

[Pablo Sanchez]

Start a war without a cow belly? (sorry, read that in a book recently) Anyway, ya. Since when has it been imprudent of a country to start a war to preserve its interests?

When you're talking about this kind of ill-defined and indefensible 'interests,' it's been imprudent since the dawn of civilization. Can you imagine the US going before the UN to explain why they launched an invasion of China?

USA: Well, they were getting too strong... economically. You know...
UN: That's your excuse?
USA: Um... they were also... maybe threatening Taiwan?

On top of that, no remotely sane US citizen would support a major war to preserve economic superiority. This whole idea of yours is entirely unrealistic. Not even the absolute monarchies were able to go to war over something so ethereal when they wanted to, what makes you think a democracy could pull it off?

I am not saying that I would approve of said war, but it would be an option of the power brokers. Lets face it, those in power hate to lose power. Now eventualy, they will but they will fight to perserve it for as long as possible and usually damn the consequences.

People hate it when someone goes to war for no good reason. If the US launched an unprovoked war against China, I'd be willing to bet that the remainder of the world would NOT be siding with the USA on that one. It would be more like "We need to stop these psychos before they go even farther!"

[Aeolus]

Start a war without a cow belly? (sorry, read that in a book recently) Anyway, ya. Since when has it been imprudent of a country to start a war to preserve its interests?

When you're talking about this kind of ill-defined and indefensible 'interests,' it's been imprudent since the dawn of civilization. Can you imagine the US going before the UN to explain why they launched an invasion of China?

USA: Well, they were getting too strong... economically. You know...
UN: That's your excuse?
USA: Um... they were also... maybe threatening Taiwan?

On top of that, no remotely sane US citizen would support a major war to preserve economic superiority. This whole idea of yours is entirely unrealistic. Not even the absolute monarchies were able to go to war over something so ethereal when they wanted to, what makes you think a democracy could pull it off?

I am not saying that I would approve of said war, but it would be an option of the power brokers. Lets face it, those in power hate to lose power. Now eventualy, they will but they will fight to perserve it for as long as possible and usually damn the consequences.

People hate it when someone goes to war for no good reason. If the US launched an unprovoked war against China, I'd be willing to bet that the remainder of the world would NOT be siding with the USA on that one. It would be more like "We need to stop these psychos before they go even farther!"

Well it's not like they wont find an excuse before going to war. Their are always excuses available...Like Taiwan, or suppying weapons to Korea, or "human rights abuses" Or maybe they just shot down one of our planes or sunk one of our ships. But belive if China or Europe is ever seen to be a realistic threat to the US, something WILL be done about it.

[AdmiralKanos]

Military attacks in response to military threats (even trumped-up ones) might be sold to the public. Military attacks in response to prolonged economic recessions, on the other hand, would never fly unless the country was plunging into chaos. Such disastrous economic recessions would sap the strength of the military anyway, so by the time this conflict became desirable from the standpoint of the Machiavellian hawks, it would no longer be feasible.

[Axis Kast]

The United States would indeed have little to fear from invaders. However, the United States would be vulnerable to an attack on it's electronic infrastructure. A terrorist with a little know-how and enough trips to Radio Shack can build a bomb that will kill every civilian computer in, say, the city of New York. And that vulnerability will only get worrse.

I agree that electronic confrontation – as well as the rising specter of industrial espionage between the remaining superpowers – will eventually supercede outright, physical warfare. The ramifications – rising tarrifs, legal squabbles, and political confrontations between various proxies – could however lead to a second Cold War. To tell truth, they probably will.

I doubt however that Brazil, India, and Indonesia will play anything more than a cursory role. The United States will hold sway over the Brazilian economy into the foreseeable future. Washington will fight to maintain as strong a grip as possible on the Western Hemisphere as European activity increases in the Middle East and Africa, Russia looks toward Central Asia, and China extends feelers along the Pacific Rim. At best, Brazil will play second-fiddle to the United States financially and battle it out with Argentina over the representation of South and Latin America.

[weemadando]

I think the EU or a resurgent Asia, possibly even a Middle East/Central Asian group could become dominant to an extent within 25 years. The US will still be competitive, but not to nearly the extent that it currently is.

[Axis Kast]

The EU will remain a power, but I doubt it'll remove the United States from the passenger's seat so to speak.

China will do so inside one-hundred and fifty years. I can't see our title as "number one" being threatened inside one hundred. Our "hyperpower" status, yes. Our position statistically "on top", no.

[Knife]

When you're talking about this kind of ill-defined and indefensible 'interests,' it's been imprudent since the dawn of civilization. Can you imagine the US going before the UN to explain why they launched an invasion of China?

USA: Well, they were getting too strong... economically. You know...
UN: That's your excuse?
USA: Um... they were also... maybe threatening Taiwan?

On top of that, no remotely sane US citizen would support a major war to preserve economic superiority. This whole idea of yours is entirely unrealistic. Not even the absolute monarchies were able to go to war over something so ethereal when they wanted to, what makes you think a democracy could pull it off?

My whole point (originaly) was that it was hard to evaluate who would succeed the US as the superpower, in that the US would hardly sit by and watch some one ussurp their power. The US has interviend in numerous sovereign countries to advance their goals and to hell with the sovereign country and its goals.

If China started to explode economicly, I doubt the US would start shooting. Yet if you don't think our policy towards China would change drasticaly especialy if our interests were challenged, then think again.

Look at the shit slinging when Bush slaped the tarrifs on steal, IIRC. Europe went ape shit (not that I blame them) and all sorts of anamosity resulted. The US and the people with the 'power' will slid into second one day, but they ain't going nicely.

[Dargos]

Why is everone ignoring Russia? I seriously expect Russia to gain its status as a Super Power back within 50 years(not only militarily but as a Economic Giant as well). They are doing very well so far, the U.S. didn't become the Economic Superpower it is overnight, and Russia has only been at it for about 15 years or so.

It has the population, land, and natural resourses. All it needs is a little time.

[Tosho]

http://www.eurasiacenter.org/report2.html

[Tosho]

http://www.eurasiacenter.org/report2.html

[Superman]

I once read that the United States roughly accounts for 6 to 8 percent of the world's population, but uses about 50% of the world's resources! How can ANYONE compete with this?

[Axis Kast]

Why is everone ignoring Russia? I seriously expect Russia to gain its status as a Super Power back within 50 years(not only militarily but as a Economic Giant as well). They are doing very well so far, the U.S. didn't become the Economic Superpower it is overnight, and Russia has only been at it for about 15 years or so.

It has the population, land, and natural resourses. All it needs is a little time.

You'll notice that I "tagged" the Russian Federation as rising back to total superpower status inside the next century.

[starfury]

Just as corporations tend to consolidate over time, I suspect geographical regions will too. I suspect that the US, Mexico, and Canada will virtually merge in the future, perhaps incorporating some of South America as well into an Americas trading bloc. This will compete with a Asia-Pacific trading bloc, a European trading bloc, etc. And of course, you'll have the people in the Middle East, coasting on their oil and going nowhere

you mean like this http://www.sjgames.com/ogre/lastwar/. a world of transnational empires