War with Korea?

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Sea Skimmer
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Post by Sea Skimmer »

Vympel wrote: You're the *last* person I'd expect to spout such a myth, Shep. Shame on you. A small percentage of the largest calibre guns and multiple rocket launch systems have the range to hit Seoul- the rest don't- not to mention North Korea's SRBM forces should be more worrisome than it's artillery pieces. If anything, I suspect those fancy bunkers they North Koreans have built to protect their big guns would be knocked out in short order at the start of a conflict.
Its not that hard to knock out a couple, LGB into the casemate will do it. The problem is they have several thousand of them built into solid granite. Normal counter battery fire wont be very effective and JDAM's might not be accurate enough. EFOGM ould be ideal for the job, but we'd never buy enough of them for it to be practical and the missiles too expensive to be used that way. Course it probably costs more then the North's tanks as well. Netfires should be cheaper, though I doubt north Korea will still be around by the time it enters service.

However since most Northern guns have ranges of about 18 kilometers or less if they wanted to launch a ground invasion, fat fucking chance, they'd have to displaced forward very quickly. While a lot of there guns are SP, most of those are simply open mounts dropped onto old tank chassis and thus easily destroyed via MLRS kill everything in the grid square attacks.

They have no respectable air defense to speak of- far worse than Iraq's both in terms of C3I and 'sharp end' weaponry. AA guns? Please.
Well if we listen to G2.mil then all those 85 and 100mm AAA pieces are in fact extremely deadly air defence systems that no jet could survive against. Though they do have a lot of SA-2 sites, and that weapon still brought down quite a few aircraft in the Gulf War.
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Post by 0.1 »

Well, this is the biggest case of damned if you do, and damned if you don't.

The alternatives are:

1. Buy the NK off: net effect is punt the ball down the road to the next guy in charge. The NK will probably go ahead with their program anyway.

2. Do nothing: net effect might be export of nukes by NK which may or may not lead to economic sanctions which may or may not lead to war.

3. Go preemptive: Well, that's basically hitting the bastards where they live, and that's not a good option.

4. Keep trying the diplo route: Net effect is almost like #2, but will probably involve some pay off to the NK in return for the monitoring, assuming either Bush caves or the democrats replace him in 18 months.

About the most unfortunate thing in the world is that the U.S. is a functioning democracy and is probably not as effective in taking unilateral action. Pick any of the old dictatorships, and NK would've been wiped out at this point. It is frankly amazing how much BS the U.S. is willing to put up with, I suppose that's part of the job when you're stuck being the world's only super power.

The NK would probably do some damage to the SK, they'd be slaughtered over a very short period of time by just about everybody involved, but I'm betting that if the NK took the gloves off, they could cause harm to the Asian economy on the scale a little worse than SARS.

This does make you wonder though about how desparate the NK really are. I wonder if it came to a choice between getting killed by his own people vs going to war against the world, which choice would little Kimmy make.
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Post by LT.Hit-Man »

Does anyone here know for sure why NK suddenly went off the deep end and start all the saber rattling?

I mean what the hell are they doing they have been a fairly peace place for sometime sure it's a strained peace but peace none the less.
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Post by Sea Skimmer »

LT.Hit-Man wrote:Does anyone here know for sure why NK suddenly went off the deep end and start all the saber rattling?

I mean what the hell are they doing they have been a fairly peace place for sometime sure it's a strained peace but peace none the less.
Might have something to do with the near total collapse of there economy, this is a nation which has a major cannibalism problem in spite of large amounts of foreign food aid.
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Post by Vympel »

Axis Kast wrote:The Democratic People’s Republic of North Korea, Vympel, is the most heavily defended country in the world, per-capita. There are tens of thousands of antiaircraft guns located throughout the Communist stronghold.
We've had this debate before- as I said then, AA guns are an obsolescent form of defense.
We’re talking about a nation with the capability to literally pepper the sky with overlapping fields of fire during any potential conflict. High-level bombing might work, but close ground support is “iffy” at best; certainly more dangerous than in Iraq.
The Iraq of 1991 had, asides from the Soviet Union, which was a quantum leap ahead (in terms of the 'sharp end' weapon systems), the most sophisticated air defense network in the world- it's AA gun and SAM batteries were connected by a state-of-the-art French system- KARI. Korea has no such advanced system to coordinate it's command and control, most of it's AA guns are not of the right calibre to cause problems to CAS aircraft like the A-10 (85mm and above calibre are ineffective against aircraft flying at basically tree top level)- let alone the air support that is being done via simple JDAM.
Well if we listen to G2.mil then all those 85 and 100mm AAA pieces are in fact extremely deadly air defence systems that no jet could survive against.
Luckily Myers is a kook :)
Though they do have a lot of SA-2 sites, and that weapon still brought down quite a few aircraft in the Gulf War.
Yes, but North Korea doesn't have the French air-defense C3I system Iraq had. Note the pathetic losses Iraq inflicted the second time round, with that system smashed. North Korea will cop it even worse. At least Iraq had some modern systems- the best NK has is a handful of Igla series MANPADS- a good weapon, but it won't deny the US complete control of the air.
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Post by Axis Kast »

Oh, we'll lose more than we did in Iraq, for sure. As Skimmer pointed out, the Koreans have more than enough 85 and 100mm systems to make the skies very dangerous - especially for inexperienced pilots.

North Korea's system doesn't necessarily have to be all that coordinated from the point of view of target tracking so long as various areas respond as one. We're talking about thousands of guns firing at one time at a single target. Luck alone could do it.

Yes, we could win the war. No, it wouldn't be a cakewalk. Yes, we'd take a lot of casualties among the Air Force, Marines, and Navy pilots.
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Post by Sea Skimmer »

Axis Kast wrote:Oh, we'll lose more than we did in Iraq, for sure. As Skimmer pointed out, the Koreans have more than enough 85 and 100mm systems to make the skies very dangerous - especially for inexperienced pilots.
:roll: Your clearly now aware of the stupidity of g2.mil, those weapons are almost completely useless. They can't hurt a B-52 in broad daylight, let alone any form of tactical aircraft.

North Korea's system doesn't necessarily have to be all that coordinated from the point of view of target tracking so long as various areas respond as one. We're talking about thousands of guns firing at one time at a single target. Luck alone could do it.
Unhun, if they shoot a thousand guns at one plane then what do they do when they've used up every gun in the country to fire at one of ten attacking squadrons? And of course without a decent command and control system the guns wont have warning time they need to engage. A gun crew cannot be at the ready 24/7 and against night targets they need radar control t accomplish anything. The sky is far bigger then you think and most of there guns can't reach an attack aircraft at 12-15,000 feet anyway.
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Sea Skimmer wrote: :roll: Your clearly now aware of the stupidity of g2.mil, those weapons are almost completely useless. They can't hurt a B-52 in broad daylight, let alone any form of tactical aircraft.
Someone point out to him the sheer inefficiency of german 88mm fire in WW2 vis a vis attacking B-17s
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MKSheppard wrote: Someone point out to him the sheer inefficiency of german 88mm fire in WW2 vis a vis attacking B-17s
Err by "him" I mean Axis Kast, not our Great Leader :oops:
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Post by Axis Kast »

Still, those guns are going to be deadly. It's not a matter of losing the war, but it's a matter of rude awakenings for all those who already clamour over casualties in Iraq. We didn't lose a single pilot to enemy fire this time around, as far as I know. Over North Korea, that's going to change rather quickly.

And is the general analysis that North Korea lacks any kind of useful early-warning systems whatsoever?
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Post by MKSheppard »

Axis Kast wrote:Still, those guns are going to be deadly.
There's a reason Germany was researching Wasserfall in 1944, Kast...

100mm guns have to be aimed almost 30 seconds to a minute in front
of a plane to hit it at altitude...missiles are much better for high altitude
intercepts.

Now, low level AAA is still a threat...
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Post by phongn »

MKSheppard wrote:Now, low level AAA is still a threat...
Of course, you don't aim large-calibre AA at low-level threats...
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Post by phongn »

Axis Kast wrote:North Korea's system doesn't necessarily have to be all that coordinated from the point of view of target tracking so long as various areas respond as one. We're talking about thousands of guns firing at one time at a single target. Luck alone could do it.
Somewhat difficult to coordinate that fire when the USAF has likely destroyed the entire air-defense C4I network down to the ROCs.
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Post by MKSheppard »

phongn wrote: Of course, you don't aim large-calibre AA at low-level threats...
Of course :P

Mr. 40mm and 23mm will cause problems.
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Post by Sea Skimmer »

MKSheppard wrote:
Axis Kast wrote:Still, those guns are going to be deadly.
There's a reason Germany was researching Wasserfall in 1944, Kast...

100mm guns have to be aimed almost 30 seconds to a minute in front
of a plane to hit it at altitude...missiles are much better for high altitude
intercepts.

Now, low level AAA is still a threat...
Even with radar directed guns that didn't have to worry about HARM's or being hit by JSOW's the Germans often had to fire tens and even hundreds of thousands of rounds to shoot down a single four engine bomber.

At low level low caliber AAA is a threat, but the US and ROK wont be flying at low level very much. With so many JDAM kits available only cluster bombs really need to be delivered at low level but WCMD and JSOW are removing even that need.
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Post by Sea Skimmer »

MKSheppard wrote:
Mr. 40mm and 23mm will cause problems.
Commies don’t use 40mm, they use 57mm
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Post by Axis Kast »

We'll lose many more planes than in Iraq. Period.
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Post by Howedar »

Your argument is nonexistant. Period.
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Post by Vympel »

Axis Kast wrote:We'll lose many more planes than in Iraq. Period.
If some of North Korea's MiG-29s (it's original basic export build FULCRUM-As have been augmented by some extra MiG-29 FULCRUM-Cs) actually contest the sky, they might actually have a chance (maybe 20-30%) of scoring some kills, making it not that hard to exceed the rather piddly Iraq total. The AA guns, on the other hand, are a complete non-issue. They'd be more dangerous to ground forces, actually. I wouldn't be confident enough to put a period after it though ...
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