Vympel wrote: Perinquus wrote:
Actually, I'm going by one of Blix's own statements:
Maybe you should refer to his more recent statements- in March, for example, rather than using obsolete information. U-2 overflights, and independent interviews were all allowed subsequent to late February.
The Bush administration had lost faith in Blix, to put it bluntly. He was an inspector who was acceptable to the French, the Russians, and the Germans, and I don't think the U.S. government ever trusted him to press the issue sufficiently. But even he came to the conclusion that the Iraqis were not cooperating. I also think the U.S. government was of the opinion that Blix was soft soaping the Iraqi side of things, toward the start of hostilities, in order to try and head off a war.
Really, it comes down to trust. Why would the Iraqis have dragged their feet so long if they were cooperating? I don't think they were up until the very last minute - which was when they realized "oh shit, they really mean it this time". It wasn't until the suddenly awoke to the realization that the U.S. was, honestly and no shit, going to take military action that they started to become more cooperative. Well, it was too late by then. This is something I am well acquainted with dealing with suspects on the street who play exactly this game. They bullshit you right up until the last minute, then when they cop on to the fact that your about to make them pay, they suddenly become little angels. And if you play along with that game, then before long, all the shitbags on the street know you for a chump they can play. International relations have some parallels to this. A nation's credibility is undermined when a little tinpot dictator like Saddam Hussein can play that game and win it. So Bush didn't let him get away with it, and I for one, am not sorry for it.
Vympel wrote:Interesting. They were only stalling if you already have decided if Iraq had WMD.
Then why did they obfuscate and obstruct so long if they were really cooperating? I have yet to hear
anyone give me a credible answer to that question.
As I said, I am building up a large body of experience dealing with deceitful people. There's another aspect of that experience I apply to this: there's what you know, and what you can prove.
Vympel wrote:I'll repost my reply that you didn't see/didn't respond to:
Problem: it is a fact that Iraq unilaterally disposed of much WMD before an inspections regime was in place. Inspectors could verify that WMD of the type in question had been destroyed, but could not fully account for the amounts. Hardly anyone ever mentions this. To categorically state that Iraq was or was not doing something is false.
and later in that reply:
Iraq couldn't confirm it had destroyed some of the WMD that it did destroy immediately after the Gulf War. In addition, there has been various testimony out there for years by various people, for example, Scott Ritter (denounced as a Saddam apologist at the time and smugly saying I told you so now) and Hussein Kemal (in his 1995 debriefing when he defected) who affirmed that Iraq did not have the WMD claimed.
Again, I have yet to hear a credible explanation for why they were obfuscating and obstructing if they were actually being cooperative.
Vympel wrote:Furthermore, to this day not a single Iraqi scientist, soldier, officer, engineer, or anyone else has offered the US a single scrap of information regarding Iraq's supposed WMD stockpiles. The argument that they're afraid of Saddam doesn't fly anymore, I'm afraid- but surprise, they still say the same thing, despite a massive reward, assurances of immunity from prosecution, and offers of safe haven.
The search is still ongoing. I for one, am willing to give U.S. forces in Iraq at least as much time to find these things as people like you were to give the UN inspectors. If the war hadn't happened yet, you'd still be squawking to give the UN more time. But when the US doesn't find things right away, your minds are made up.
Vympel wrote:Even Kofi Annan, UN secretary general admitted that there was no doubt in anyone's mind that military pressure - the pressure of troops moving closer to Iraq - was what got the inspectors back in after a four year absence. I'm amazed that people can review facts like the Iraqis kicking the weapons inspectors out in the first place,
Iraq didn't kick the inspectors out, Richard Butler ORDERED them out back in 1998. Iraq had nothing to do with it. Check the news articles back in 1998, a certain mythology has arisen about this.
Butler ordered them out after the Iraqis not only obstructed them to the point where they couldn't carry out their mission, but to a point where Butler perceived at least some element of danger if they attempted to continue. And the Iraqis did this in order to make the inspectors give up and leave.
And your point is this shows the Iraqis were cooperating and had nothing to hide?
The spin machine is in overdrive isn't it?
and not letting them back in until menaced with military force
Vympel wrote:Then the US shouldn't have violated the inspections regime with spies, like they did in 1998 and which directly resulted in the bombing campaign that saw Richard Butler tell his inspectors to leave (on advisement from the United States).
I have never understood this sort of complaint. Spying is a wise and necessary precaution against military disaster. According to reports, U.S. spies inserted a a high-tech "black box" device in Baghdad that year to eavesdrop on Saddam Hussein's phone calls, among other Iraqi communications, former inspectors say. The signals then were encrypted in other U.N. data and transmitted via satellite to the National Security Agency headquarters at Ft. Meade, Md. this strikes me as an eminently sensible precaution against a regime which was known to be bloody, repressive and dishonest. What would you have had us do? Blindly trust Saddam to be a good little boy and play nice like he promised? Are you
really this naive?
Vympel wrote:Save the
for when you've actually read the facts of the situation rather than the convenient half-truth/outright lie version.
Then give me a credible explanation for why the Iraqis were obfuscating and obstructing, and violating the terms of the cease fire for twelve years if they were actually coopperating the whole time. I'm still waiting for one.
Vympel wrote:And I really don't care whether the terms we imposed were in accordance with the UN charter or not. As the nation that spent by far the most blood and treasure in the First Gulf War, I maintain we had every right to impose conditions of our own. An age old law of warfare is "to the victors belong the spoils"
So much for the letter of the law then. That seems to apply only if Bill Clinton is getting head.
There I was talking about the laws of the U.S. concerning an internal matter of the United States government and the conduct of an elected official of the United States. In that situation U.S. law is paramount, and there can be no dispute over that point.
However, I have never contended that the UN charter trumps US sovereignty, and no one could ever have gotten the idea that I did from reading any of my posts on any topic. I simply refuse to consider it reasonable to subordinate US security interests to an organization that puts Libya in charge of a human rights commission, and appoints Iraq as chair of a disarmament committee, with Iran as co-chair.
Vympel wrote:Regardless, you didn't impose conditions of your own, and it was a UN operation by a Coalition, not the US. Bush 41 understood the realities of the situation, you seem to be pining for an alternate reality.
The no-fly zones were imposed by the UN then? Despite the fact that they are supposed to violate the UN charter. Then Saddam
was violating a UN resolution!
Vympel wrote:Then go ahead and read what I wrote in response to your best available intel claim. It was fucking shit intel.
I'm sure there was nothign else. Including classified material.
Vympel wrote:I'll write it again, since you ignored my reply:
And what wonderful intel that was. Forged documents about purchasing uranium, plagiarized university papers years out of date, claims about aluminum tubes while outright ignoring dissent from both the US Dept of Energy or the IAEA to the effect that they were not suitable for their stated purpose, and outright dishonesty by Colin Powell in his February 2003 presentation (the very same one where he brandished the 'dodgy dossier' as "solid intelligence"):
As pointed out by Gilbert Cranberg (Washington Post, 6/29/03), Powell embellished an intercepted conversation about weapons inspections between Iraqi officials to make it sound more incriminating, changing an order to "inspect the scrap areas and the abandoned areas" to a command to "clean out" those areas. He also added the phrase "make sure there is nothing there," a phrase that appears nowhere in the State Department's official translation. Further, Powell relied heavily on the disclosure of Iraq's pre-war unconventional weapons programs by defector Hussein Kamel, without noting that Kamel had also said that all those weapons had been destroyed
What good intel can you present?
Me personally, none. But then again, you still have MI6 standing by claims that Saddam really was trying to buy uranium in Africa. There is also information like that available here:
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB80/
which, dated Feb. 26 on the last update, is the sort of thing that they would have been relying on at the time. And I would also point out that there are certain to be a great many classified sources, whose value we cannot judge.
Vympel wrote:Then the claim should not have been made at all. If JFK had got up before the world with this standard of evidence back when the missile crisis was on, the world would've laughed in his face. Luckily, he had undeniable proof.
Missiles are rather easier to spot on satellite photos than chemical weapons or biological weapons.
Vympel wrote:Wrapping it up with asking him to prove a negative?
Don't be an ass!
He's the one claiming that Bush
must be lying and there is no other explanation. If someone can point out a credible alternative explanation to refute that assertion, it is up to him, as the person making that claim, to support his assertion by showing that that credible alternative cannot be so.
Vympel wrote:So? Iceberg didn't deny it. His point was that he let them in before they were attacked.
I don't care. When I tell a person I encounter in my job that if he doesn't quit acting the maggot, I'll arrest him for disorderly conduct, and he keeps it up, causing me to take out my handcuffs and tell him to turn around and place his hands on his head, whereupon he suddenly starts apologizing and behaving himself,
tough shit! He's still under arrest. He had his chance and he blew it.
If you do it any other way, the word will get out that you don't really mean what you say, and they will start walking all over you. The same principle applies on the national level. We put our prestige and credibility on the line when we told Saddam, "you will cooperate or else you will pay". When he stops cooperating, that order better have more than just verbage behind it.
Vympel wrote:If the US had clean hands in its dealing with the weapons inspections, you might have a point, but it had already shown bad faith back in 1998 when it seeded the inspectors with spies (in their inspection efforts, UNSCOM used surveillance techniques that would be very useful for spying on the Iraqi government- so the US went ahead with the plan), which directly resulted in the inspectors leaving before the impending US attack because of supposedly unsatisfactory Iraqi compliance. If you wish to challenge this uncontroversial fact, I have plenty of contemporary news sources on hand that attest to it- that the US had been using UNSCOM to spy on Iraq, in violation of their mandate, was reported as fact.
Once again, I see no need to apologize for this. When you are dealing with a dictator as unscrupulous as Saddam Hussein incontrovertibly was, I do not think it unethical to take the precaution of gathering a little intelligence on him.