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N. Korea next to hear U.S. war drum
By GEOFFREY YORK
From Thursday's Globe and Mail
UPDATED AT 2:00 AM EDT Thursday, Aug. 7, 2003
Beijing — A senior Pentagon adviser has given details of a war strategy for invading North Korea and toppling its regime within 30 to 60 days, adding muscle to a lobbying campaign by U.S. hawks urging a pre-emptive military strike against Pyongyang's nuclear facilities.
Less than four months after the end of the Iraq war, the war drums in Washington have begun pounding again. A growing number of influential U.S. leaders are talking openly of military action against North Korea to destroy its nuclear-weapons program, and even those who prefer negotiations are warning of the mounting danger of war.
Some analysts predict that North Korea could test a nuclear warhead by the end of this year — an event that could cross the "red line" that would provoke a U.S. attack.
The tensions were heightened by a recent exchange of gunfire across the border between North Korean and South Korean soldiers. Talks between U.S. and North Korean officials are expected to be held in Beijing soon, but nobody is predicting an imminent diplomatic agreement, especially after North Korea denounced a U.S. negotiator as a "bloodsucker" and "human scum."
Military conflict in the Korean peninsula could trigger a catastrophe, not only because of the suspected presence of nuclear bombs in North Korea, but also because of the 11,000 North Korean artillery weapons along the border that could inflict death and destruction on millions of people in the South Korean capital, Seoul, which is within artillery range of the North's guns.
Former CIA director James Woolsey, a Pentagon adviser and close ally of Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, gave the most explicit glimpse into the thinking of U.S. military planners this week when he revealed the details of a possible plan of attack against North Korea.
The plan would include 4,000 daily air strikes against North Korean targets, the deployment of cruise missiles and stealth aircraft to destroy the Yongbyon nuclear plant and other nuclear facilities, the stationing of U.S. Marine forces off the coasts of North Korea to threaten a land attack on Pyongyang, the deployment of two additional U.S. Army divisions to bolster South Korean troops in a land offensive against North Korea, and the call-up of National Guard and Reserve units to replace U.S. combat forces that are currently bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"Massive air power is the key to being able both to destroy Yongbyon and to protect South Korea from attack by missile or artillery," Mr. Woolsey wrote this week in the Wall Street Journal in an article co-written by retired U.S. Air Force Lieutenant-General Thomas McInerney.
"We believe the use of air power in such a war would be swifter and more devastating than it was in Iraq," the article said. "We judge that the U.S. and South Korea could defeat North Korea decisively in 30 to 60 days with such a strategy."
Mr. Woolsey and Lt.-Gen. McInerney said the U.S. should already be preparing "to assess realistically what it would take to conduct a successful military operation to change the North Korean regime."
They acknowledged the risk that U.S. military strikes could trigger an explosion of radiation from North Korean nuclear plants, along with massive artillery attacks against Seoul by the North Korean heavy guns that are hidden in hardened underground bunkers on the border.
But U.S. cruise missiles and stealth aircraft could launch precision bombing attacks that would "minimize radiation leakage" at Yongbyon, while also sealing shut the underground bunkers where the artillery pieces are hidden, they said.
They warned that a war could soon become necessary to prevent North Korea from selling weapons-grade plutonium to "rogue states" and terrorist organizations. "The world has weeks to months, at most, to deal with this issue, not months to years," Mr. Woolsey and Lt.-Gen. McInerney wrote.
Similar warnings were issued recently by William Perry, the former U.S. defence secretary, who said North Korea and the United States were drifting toward war — perhaps as early as this year.
Mr. Perry said the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush is "losing control" of the North Korean nuclear crisis, making it possible for Pyongyang to begin selling nuclear weapons to terrorists soon. "The nuclear program now under way in North Korea poses an imminent danger of nuclear weapons being detonated in American cities," he told The Washington Post.
He said North Korea seems to have begun reprocessing some of the 8,000 spent fuel rods from a closed nuclear plant. This could allow Pyongyang to build up to six nuclear bombs in the next six months. "I have thought for some months that if the North Koreans moved toward processing," he said, "then we are on a path toward war."
N. Korea next to hear U.S. war drum
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MKSheppard
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N. Korea next to hear U.S. war drum
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Sea Skimmer
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Well, NK could start shelling Seoul within minutes or hours I think.
Also, the Defense Department had better pull all the best divisions and fleets it can from all around if they want to attack NK. Iraq is going to be like a walk in the park compared to invading NK.
Also, the Defense Department had better pull all the best divisions and fleets it can from all around if they want to attack NK. Iraq is going to be like a walk in the park compared to invading NK.
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MKSheppard
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Yeha, but NK is on most everyone's shitlist
http://exile.ru/159/159062003.html]Story
The most famous North Korean attack happened in Burma (or Myanmar, as you're supposed to call it now) in 1983. The North Koreans knew that the South Korean President and most of his cabinet would be visiting Rangoon (if you're still allowed to call it that), so they sent three top agents down there to wipe the whole Southern leadership out at once-the Michael Corleone approach, for you Godfather fans.
The Northern agents planted a huge bomb at a shrine the South Koreans were scheduled to visit and set it off by remote control. The President survived, but 18 other South Korean officials were blown to bits, along with a lot of Burmese.
The Burmese were sorta cheesed.
They broke diplomatic relations with North Korea. But the North didn't seem to mind. Kim Jong Il doesn't play safe. He goes all out, and damn the consequences. And he doesn't mind killing off a few civilians along the way, either. He's willing to break as many eggs as necessary to make the proverbial omelet.
In 1987, North Korean agents planted a bomb on a Korean Air flight. 135 people were killed. Kimmy J., who supposedly ordered this operation himself, just decided blowing up a randomly-selected Korean Air flight would be a good way of scaring tourists off going to Seoul for the 1988 Olympics.
The bomb had been planted by two agents, a man and a woman. Both of them took their poison pills when they were caught. He died like he was supposed to, but her pill must've been stepped - on cheap stuff, because she survived. She's practically the only one ever captured alive. North Korean agents are harder to keep alive in captivity than Great White Sharks.
These were small operations. But some of the North's operations have been really big, more like irregular warfare than terrorism. The biggest were in the sixties, around the time of the Tet Offensive, when the North Koreans were trying to copy the tactics that were working for the NVA/VC.
In 1968, a team of thirty-one Northern elite troops in South Korean Army (ROK) uniforms almost bluffed their way into the Presidential palace in Seoul before they were spotted. Twenty-eight out of thirty-one died in the firefight that followed, either killed by ROK troops or by suicide.
That same year, the North landed a really big force, 120 men, on the East coast of S. Korea. The story is classic Korean stuff: dead serious, bloody as a slaughterhouse, and all the same, kind of comical.
The North Korean infiltrators were trying to start a Vietnam-style uprising, but without any of the patience or finesse the VC had. They just herded all the local villagers together at gunpoint and announced that all the men would join the Korean Workers' Party and all the women would sign up for the Women's Union.
But the villagers were Korean too, which means they were natural-born extremists themselves - and since they were from the South, they were natural-born anti-communists. So a ten-year-old boy announced that he hated commies.
Naturally, the North Korean troops were offended, so they killed the kid.
This did not help in their struggle to win the hearts & minds of the locals, a
few of whom snuck off to tell the South Korean army about the new visitors.
The ROK surrounded the village and the Northerners, naturally, fought to the death. Out of 120 infiltrators, exactly seven were captured alive, probably because they were unconscious from wounds and unable to finish themselves off.
There hasn't been an army so stubborn about not being taken alive since the Imperial Japanese Army went out of business.
No matter how many times it fails, the North still seems to like the coastal-infiltration technique. After all, Korea's a peninsula with a complicated rocky coastline - lots of places to put men ashore without too many spectators.
Who knows how often they're surfacing to drop off new agents? We only hear about a few of their failures. The biggest recent one we know about was in 1996, when a Northern sub dropped off 26 men, some in ROK uniforms, some in civvies, and all lugging guns. They even brought rocket launchers, which might've been kind of a giveaway when these guys were trying to blend in with the locals.
Just imagine some wild-eyed child of Kim Il Sung's regime, all got up in slacker clothes, trying to act casual walking in from the beach still sopping wet with a big RPG-7 over his shoulder.
He runs into a South Korean fisherman and tries to do his best imitation of a harmless surfer: “Hey, dude, everything cool? GOUGE OUT THE EYES OF THE IMPERIALIST-Whoops, I mean hang loose, dude!”
That's what I mean about the North having focus but no finesse. The Vietnamese would've sent their men one at a time, unarmed, and given them a few months to get jobs and settle in.
But those Kims - they're just impulsive guys. They want it all now.
Naturally, these 26 clueless infiltrators were spotted and hunted down. Only two of the 26 were captured alive. But the interesting thing is that 11 of the 24 dead were supposedly shot by their officers because they refused to kill themselves. Maybe team spirit is weakening up North. Still, you should never assume your enemy is going to fall apart. In general, overestimating the enemy is safer than underestimating him (with some notable exceptions, like McClellan).
http://exile.ru/159/159062003.html]Story
The most famous North Korean attack happened in Burma (or Myanmar, as you're supposed to call it now) in 1983. The North Koreans knew that the South Korean President and most of his cabinet would be visiting Rangoon (if you're still allowed to call it that), so they sent three top agents down there to wipe the whole Southern leadership out at once-the Michael Corleone approach, for you Godfather fans.
The Northern agents planted a huge bomb at a shrine the South Koreans were scheduled to visit and set it off by remote control. The President survived, but 18 other South Korean officials were blown to bits, along with a lot of Burmese.
The Burmese were sorta cheesed.
They broke diplomatic relations with North Korea. But the North didn't seem to mind. Kim Jong Il doesn't play safe. He goes all out, and damn the consequences. And he doesn't mind killing off a few civilians along the way, either. He's willing to break as many eggs as necessary to make the proverbial omelet.
In 1987, North Korean agents planted a bomb on a Korean Air flight. 135 people were killed. Kimmy J., who supposedly ordered this operation himself, just decided blowing up a randomly-selected Korean Air flight would be a good way of scaring tourists off going to Seoul for the 1988 Olympics.
The bomb had been planted by two agents, a man and a woman. Both of them took their poison pills when they were caught. He died like he was supposed to, but her pill must've been stepped - on cheap stuff, because she survived. She's practically the only one ever captured alive. North Korean agents are harder to keep alive in captivity than Great White Sharks.
These were small operations. But some of the North's operations have been really big, more like irregular warfare than terrorism. The biggest were in the sixties, around the time of the Tet Offensive, when the North Koreans were trying to copy the tactics that were working for the NVA/VC.
In 1968, a team of thirty-one Northern elite troops in South Korean Army (ROK) uniforms almost bluffed their way into the Presidential palace in Seoul before they were spotted. Twenty-eight out of thirty-one died in the firefight that followed, either killed by ROK troops or by suicide.
That same year, the North landed a really big force, 120 men, on the East coast of S. Korea. The story is classic Korean stuff: dead serious, bloody as a slaughterhouse, and all the same, kind of comical.
The North Korean infiltrators were trying to start a Vietnam-style uprising, but without any of the patience or finesse the VC had. They just herded all the local villagers together at gunpoint and announced that all the men would join the Korean Workers' Party and all the women would sign up for the Women's Union.
But the villagers were Korean too, which means they were natural-born extremists themselves - and since they were from the South, they were natural-born anti-communists. So a ten-year-old boy announced that he hated commies.
Naturally, the North Korean troops were offended, so they killed the kid.
This did not help in their struggle to win the hearts & minds of the locals, a
few of whom snuck off to tell the South Korean army about the new visitors.
The ROK surrounded the village and the Northerners, naturally, fought to the death. Out of 120 infiltrators, exactly seven were captured alive, probably because they were unconscious from wounds and unable to finish themselves off.
There hasn't been an army so stubborn about not being taken alive since the Imperial Japanese Army went out of business.
No matter how many times it fails, the North still seems to like the coastal-infiltration technique. After all, Korea's a peninsula with a complicated rocky coastline - lots of places to put men ashore without too many spectators.
Who knows how often they're surfacing to drop off new agents? We only hear about a few of their failures. The biggest recent one we know about was in 1996, when a Northern sub dropped off 26 men, some in ROK uniforms, some in civvies, and all lugging guns. They even brought rocket launchers, which might've been kind of a giveaway when these guys were trying to blend in with the locals.
Just imagine some wild-eyed child of Kim Il Sung's regime, all got up in slacker clothes, trying to act casual walking in from the beach still sopping wet with a big RPG-7 over his shoulder.
He runs into a South Korean fisherman and tries to do his best imitation of a harmless surfer: “Hey, dude, everything cool? GOUGE OUT THE EYES OF THE IMPERIALIST-Whoops, I mean hang loose, dude!”
That's what I mean about the North having focus but no finesse. The Vietnamese would've sent their men one at a time, unarmed, and given them a few months to get jobs and settle in.
But those Kims - they're just impulsive guys. They want it all now.
Naturally, these 26 clueless infiltrators were spotted and hunted down. Only two of the 26 were captured alive. But the interesting thing is that 11 of the 24 dead were supposedly shot by their officers because they refused to kill themselves. Maybe team spirit is weakening up North. Still, you should never assume your enemy is going to fall apart. In general, overestimating the enemy is safer than underestimating him (with some notable exceptions, like McClellan).
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong
"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
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Sea Skimmer
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Firing cyclic for apiece of heavy artillery is about 30 seconds; figure fifteen minutes to get the crew organized and ready to fire. So minutes is about right, unless there already on alert in which case the guns able to reach Seoul would probuabbly be loaded already.Shinova wrote:Well, NK could start shelling Seoul within minutes or hours I think.
There was a time when the North was believed to be able to launch a full-scale invasion of the South on a single hours notice from the highest level. They don't have the fuel or food to do it now, but all there guns are still in there wartime firing positions.
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Xenophobe3691
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Well, Kim Jong Il's gonna give a whole new meaning to the concept of a Pyrrhic Victory...
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The Duchess of Zeon
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Hopefully. We know they're excellent at underground fortification, and the idea of very large stockpiles is not implausible--though, probably not to support that kind of exertion, I grant.Sea Skimmer wrote:They don't have the fuel or food to do it now.
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Peregrin Toker
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The population of North Korea have nothing to lose - given that the famine in NK might be a direct result of the regime's policy, it seems like matters would improve if it all devolved into anarchy.
However, I'm afraid whether the last death-throes of North Korea could cost us Seoul.
However, I'm afraid whether the last death-throes of North Korea could cost us Seoul.
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The Duchess of Zeon
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It's not impossible that Kim Jong-il could find himself in a situation that he decides is "use it or lose it" for his entire nation, so to speak. The question is if the army will still be willing to follow orders by then or not.Simon H.Johansen wrote: However, I'm afraid whether the last death-throes of North Korea could cost us Seoul.
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I'm sure it's indoctrinated to Stalinist level.The Duchess of Zeon wrote:
It's not impossible that Kim Jong-il could find himself in a situation that he decides is "use it or lose it" for his entire nation, so to speak. The question is if the army will still be willing to follow orders by then or not.
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Peregrin Toker
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They worship him like a god. Of course they'd follow orders!The Duchess of Zeon wrote:It's not impossible that Kim Jong-il could find himself in a situation that he decides is "use it or lose it" for his entire nation, so to speak. The question is if the army will still be willing to follow orders by then or not.Simon H.Johansen wrote: However, I'm afraid whether the last death-throes of North Korea could cost us Seoul.
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Sooner or later, the world will have to make a choice- a North Korea with nukes and a leader crazy that he might actually use them, or stopping them now and facing up to the very real possibility of Seoul being shelled to the stone age.
I don't envy the leaders who have to make those kinds of choices
I don't envy the leaders who have to make those kinds of choices
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RedImperator
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What about the high ranking officers? Kim Q. Grunt might fall asleep gazing at pictures of Dear Leader, but the officers who would actually have the authority to authorize a nuclear launch must realize that if they drop an atomic bomb on South Korea, they're either going to die in the American retaliatory strike or get hanged by a South Korean war tribunal. Will they midlessly follow orders if Kim goes nuts?Vympel wrote:I'm sure it's indoctrinated to Stalinist level.The Duchess of Zeon wrote:
It's not impossible that Kim Jong-il could find himself in a situation that he decides is "use it or lose it" for his entire nation, so to speak. The question is if the army will still be willing to follow orders by then or not.
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If they don't follow orders, they'll just be killed and replaced by someone more complient. That has to weigh on their decision somewhat.RedImperator wrote:What about the high ranking officers? Kim Q. Grunt might fall asleep gazing at pictures of Dear Leader, but the officers who would actually have the authority to authorize a nuclear launch must realize that if they drop an atomic bomb on South Korea, they're either going to die in the American retaliatory strike or get hanged by a South Korean war tribunal. Will they midlessly follow orders if Kim goes nuts?Vympel wrote:I'm sure it's indoctrinated to Stalinist level.The Duchess of Zeon wrote:
It's not impossible that Kim Jong-il could find himself in a situation that he decides is "use it or lose it" for his entire nation, so to speak. The question is if the army will still be willing to follow orders by then or not.
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SirNitram
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Whoever suggested this is insane. 30-60 days? Are the US Fleets even able to sail there in that timeframe? 4000 airstrikes a day.. And there are what, tens of thousands of guns pointed at Seoul? Worst of all is this getting out. If Kim Dong Small hears about a coming war and sees signs of mobilization towards him, he might well launch an assault on SK just to go down fighting or scare the US with a nuke strike.
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That sounds like some other countries out there.otter wrote:Seeing how SK seems to regular piss and moan about American military presence on their soil, I'm all for them to spend a few years under NKs military presence
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"Get the US out NOW!"
US leaves, they get invaded.
"Please, save us!"
Can't think of any nations in particular that's happened to recently, but it's pretty likely to happen sometime, if it hasn't already.
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TrailerParkJawa
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I think the scary part will be what happens when they collapse. Will weapons make their way into the hands of terrorists, or will they just rust in place. Im talking about all weapons from ships to nukes.Shinova wrote:North Korea is actually getting pretty close to self-collapse, so I think we should just wait for that to happen.
If they collapse do you think China will send in troops to stabilize things?
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[quote]
"Get the US out NOW!"
US leaves, they get invaded.
"Please, save us!"
[/quote]
I have two dreams. In the first GW calls up the Pres of SK and says, "Alert your troops, you're going to war in 24 hours." In the second GW goes on International TV and says "The SK's told us to GTFO, so we will. Son of the Fat Bastard, SK is yours. We won't interfere if you invade. All we want is safe passage for our people after you take over." And millions of Liberal and Leftist Idiots jaws drop in unison.
"Get the US out NOW!"
US leaves, they get invaded.
"Please, save us!"
[/quote]
I have two dreams. In the first GW calls up the Pres of SK and says, "Alert your troops, you're going to war in 24 hours." In the second GW goes on International TV and says "The SK's told us to GTFO, so we will. Son of the Fat Bastard, SK is yours. We won't interfere if you invade. All we want is safe passage for our people after you take over." And millions of Liberal and Leftist Idiots jaws drop in unison.
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Grand Admiral Thrawn
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In the long run.Grand Admiral Thrawn wrote:You people do realize that SK can bitchslap the North?
But that's after the nation's population, national, historical, and financial capitol gets sieged to rubble (Seoul).
SK will win, but it's gonna be a long and painful road to recovery.
What's her bust size!?
It's over NINE THOUSAAAAAAAAAAND!!!!!!!!!
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HemlockGrey
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I'm still hung up on 'A senior Pentagon adviser has given details of a war strategy for invading North Korea and toppling its regime within 30 to 60 days'.
Did he come up with it in his spare time, or what...?
Did he come up with it in his spare time, or what...?
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HemlockGrey wrote:I'm still hung up on 'A senior Pentagon adviser has given details of a war strategy for invading North Korea and toppling its regime within 30 to 60 days'.
Did he come up with it in his spare time, or what...?
Anytime I hear "senior pentagon adivsor" or "anonymous pentagon general"I think of some nerdy looking E-1 working the nightshift fixing the copy machines and reading to many Tom Clancy novels
