North Korea able to now make nukes

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2003-10-02 02:41pm

Against artillery we'd likely need THEL, but in the timeline I'm expecting THEL would be a viable option and far more refined than it is now.

phongn · Post by **phongn** » 2003-10-02 04:52pm

The DPRK has more missiles that fire than we do to shoot them down.

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2003-10-02 04:57pm

Why would China or Russia attack North Korea? Russia's got enough problems and China has nothing to gain by launching an invasion.

Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi · Post by **Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi** » 2003-10-02 07:36pm

How many times has Kim Dong Small said this? I'm sure it's attention whoring by some two-bit dictator that's starving his country to the point where they're eating other people, but something should be done just in case there's a small amount of truth to his claims.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-10-02 09:05pm

Admiral Valdemar wrote:
Next best thing, get some AEGIS cruisers in the area and PAC3 Patriots or wait for Aster PAAMS to come into service.

Why would we wait for a system which does not have ABM capability? And there are not enough Patriot batteries in the word to stop an all out north Korean missile attack. AEGIS/SM-2/SPY-1 also doesn't work very well against ballistic missiles, and it does not have the cross range capability to cover Seoul without sending ships up the Han river, that will not be happening.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-10-02 09:07pm

Admiral Valdemar wrote:Against artillery we'd likely need THEL, but in the timeline I'm expecting THEL would be a viable option and far more refined than it is now.

THEL is still three years off from even IOC, and the North has twenty thousand guns and rocket launchers to shoot with.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2003-10-02 09:10pm

Well hell, I said wait a few years, not go rushing in. If we wanted to, we could seriously nullify the attack NK would throw at us.

Or we could just carpet bomb every military installation they have and say to hell with South Korea.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2003-10-02 09:12pm

Incidentally, the Aster system is getting a proposed ABM system, I argued with Phong over this, but I think carpet bombing works too.

phongn · Post by **phongn** » 2003-10-02 09:42pm

Sea Skimmer wrote:Why would we wait for a system which does not have ABM capability? And there are not enough Patriot batteries in the word to stop an all out north Korean missile attack. AEGIS/SM-2/SPY-1 also doesn't work very well against ballistic missiles, and it does not have the cross range capability to cover Seoul without sending ships up the Han river, that will not be happening.

Bah. Just fit all of the ROK NHK-2s with nuclear warheads and be done with it, see if you can get multiple kills per SAM

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-10-02 11:32pm

Admiral Valdemar wrote:Incidentally, the Aster system is getting a proposed ABM system

The idea has been proposed only, and would likely suck given the missiles limited range. Planning wars with paper designs is fucking stupid anyway.

I argued with Phong over this, but I think carpet bombing works too.

Carpet-bombing does jack shit to hardened targets, incidentally North Korea probably has more bunkers then the Atlantic wall just for its artillery and missiles. They've also got everything from air search radars to bridges hardened and massively overbuilt.

Typhonis 1 · Post by **Typhonis 1** » 2003-10-03 01:22am

China would gain a safe and sane neighbor on the Korean Peninsula .Just turn control over to SK and wallah a nice new trading partner

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-10-03 01:59am

Typhonis 1 wrote:China would gain a safe and sane neighbor on the Korean Peninsula .Just turn control over to SK and wallah a nice new trading partner

The PRC wont attack, while they'd win fairly easily the risk of an NBC attack on there cities is too great and the costs of a major mobilization and invasion, and simply feeding the starving Northern population afterwards would all greatly retard there economy.

Plus they sign an non aggression pact with the North a while back, and while I doubt the Chinese goverment really gives a damn about it, both sides have honored it and kept only special boarder guard units along the boarder.

Newtonian Fury · Post by **Newtonian Fury** » 2003-10-03 11:46am

Sea Skimmer wrote:...both sides have honored it and kept only special boarder guard units along the boarder.

Not anymore. 150,000 troops have replaced the regular border guards a couple weeks ago.

Some news about it:
Link

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2003-10-03 12:41pm

Newtonian Fury wrote:
Sea Skimmer wrote:...both sides have honored it and kept only special boarder guard units along the boarder.
Not anymore. 150,000 troops have replaced the regular border guards a couple weeks ago.

Some news about it:
Link

I did wonder what that would get in reaction, more delusions of grandeur from Kim it would seem.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-10-03 07:30pm

Newtonian Fury wrote: Not anymore. 150,000 troops have replaced the regular border guards a couple weeks ago.

Some news about it:
Link

That's a pittance of a force for such a long rugged boarder, and not nearly enough to conduct offensive operations.

Newtonian Fury · Post by **Newtonian Fury** » 2003-10-04 01:46am

Sea Skimmer wrote:That's a pittance of a force for such a long rugged boarder, and not nearly enough to conduct offensive operations.

Against Vietnam, the PLA sent about 200k soldiers. And it was during a time when the Cultural Revolution had taken a toll on the military (thus the ensuing fuck up and high casualties). Now that the PLA has modernized, and the North Koreans soldiers are probably half starving and lack field experience compared to the hardened Vietnamese, the number doesn't sound wrong for a possible offensive operation.

MarkIX · Post by **MarkIX** » 2003-10-04 02:15am

When I read the article about PLA moving in to replace "Local Police" my first thought was anti corruption measures not invasion plans. Anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that the police are not held in high esteem here, I don't have any dealings with the PLA.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-10-04 03:34am

Newtonian Fury wrote:Against Vietnam, the PLA sent about 200k soldiers.

Because all they wanted to do was make a limited attack to punish Vietnam, and it was conducted in a remote area against weak Vietnamese forces, and guess what? The PLA got its ass kicked.

An invasion of the North would not be for anything less then its total conquest and the North can still field several hundred thousand effectiveness at least, with a vast amount of heavy equipment. That demands a huge force. 150,000 is about what the US fielded to invade Iraq, along with 35,000 British, Australian and other nations soldiers.

China fields inferior forces which still operate under the mass army concept, and faces much stronger opposition defending far harsher terrain. Still think 150,000 men are enough?

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2003-10-04 05:06am

It might be enough to cause the DPRK to collapse from inside, but that is all.

CelesKnight · Post by **CelesKnight** » 2003-10-04 02:49pm

SirNitram wrote:
Solauren wrote:I think it's time to start building a case (rather easy) to take out North Korea
Impossible unless you can deploy some kind of sci-fi shield over the city of Seoul.

Not impossible, just morally difficult. If choice ever comes down to attacking NK and hence loosing Seoul; or letting NK nuke Tokyo, then attacking NK and loosing Seoul anyway...

At the moment, diplomacy and the waiting game is still an option, but it might not always be.

Uraniun235 · Post by **Uraniun235** » 2003-10-04 03:45pm

Would NK require enough troops that we would be forced to resort to a draft?

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-10-04 04:07pm

Uraniun235 wrote:Would NK require enough troops that we would be forced to resort to a draft?

No, remember, any American ground invasion of the North, which will not be happening, would have the fully support of South Korea. Its active Army is larger then that of the US's and it has greater reserves totaling several million. The war would very likely be over before the US could bring in more then a few extra divisions anyway.

Newtonian Fury · Post by **Newtonian Fury** » 2003-10-04 06:11pm

Isn't over half of North Korea People's Army near the DMZ?