Lawmakers try to cut NASA off at the knees

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Lawmakers try to cut NASA off at the knees

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/ar ... Oct27.html
Lawmakers Want NASA to Postpone New Space Plane

By Kathy Sawyer
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, October 28, 2003; Page A05

Citing policy and budget concerns, key members of Congress have called on NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe to postpone further work on the next U.S. space plane designed to carry crews to and from orbit.

Sherwood L. Boehlert (R-N.Y.), chairman of the House Science Committee, and ranking Democrat Ralph M. Hall (Tex.) urged O'Keefe "to defer the current program" to build an Orbital Space Plane, at a cost of as much as $13 billion over the next five years, until the White House and Congress complete a multi-agency review of U.S. goals for human spaceflight.

They also said NASA's changing budget plan for the project "is no longer credible."

The letter, dated Oct. 21 and released yesterday, said it is not clear the Orbital Space Plane is the right approach. Because national goals have not been set, it said, "neither the mission nor the benefits of the OSP are knowable at this point."

Boehlert and Hall cited recent testimony by retired Adm. Harold W. Gehman, chairman of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board, who called for a "healthy debate on what we want to do in space" before setting designs and costs. The congressmen cautioned NASA that until the nation develops a "shared vision" to guide such projects, "public support for the nation's civilian space program will inevitably founder."

Regarding NASA's budget numbers, Boehlert and Hill said: "Prior human space flight projects at NASA have been plagued by problems stemming from the unrealistic cost estimates put forth at their inception. We are not prepared to let budgetary gamesmanship damage another NASA program."

NASA and congressional sources recently estimated the project would cost $11 billion to $13 billion to get the plane to its initial operating capability over the next five years, and at least $5 billion more to reach full operational status.

NASA's initial budget request for fiscal 2004 for the project would have left it billions "in the hole," said a senior congressional staff member who asked not to be identified. One element of congressional concern is "determining where the money is going to come from," he said.

In addition, as the space agency struggled to regain its footing after the Feb. 1 loss of the space shuttle Columbia, O'Keefe this summer called for a two-year speedup of the timetable for the space plane.

But NASA has failed to budget realistically for the accelerated schedule, the senior staffer said. It is not clear whether the broader policy review underway will result in any more money for human spaceflight.

Under that schedule, the vehicle would be ready to visit the international space station and serve as a crew lifeboat by 2008 instead of 2010. By 2012, the agency wanted the vehicle to be ready to replace the space shuttle's function as a crew ferry to and from the orbiting laboratory. The new space plane was not intended to replace the shuttle's heavy-lift cargo capacity.

With the shuttle fleet grounded until at least late next year, the United States is dependent on Russian Soyuz craft for crew rescue and transport. One of the craft landed safely, and on target, yesterday on the Asian steppes. It was carrying the space station's returning two-man crew, which was replaced by a fresh crew last week.

NASA spokesman Michael Braukus said: "We acknowledge the committee's concerns and plan to work with Congress to alleviate them."

O'Keefe was traveling yesterday. He will send a formal response to the committee later in the week, Braukus said.

Two contractor teams are competing to build the space plane: Boeing Co. and a Lockheed Martin Corp. team that includes Northrop Grumman Corp. and Orbital Sciences Corp.

NASA had planned to issue a formal request for proposals in November and expected to sign a contract next summer.

Boehlert and Hall said it was not clear how much safer the space plane's design would be compared with the shuttle's. They added: "We believe that any crewed replacement vehicle will be judged by the extent to which it significantly improves safety."

© 2003 The Washington Post Company
You know, the first thing I thought of when I read this article in to-days
paper was this:

[Michael Wong]
The Government must do it all, for private industry won't and is
unwilling to take the long term view!
[/Michael Wong]

Sorry mike, but that's the first thing that went into my head :lol:
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Post by BoredShirtless »

Congress wants an external review of NASA and its operating procedures to help not incapacitate.
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Post by Vympel »

An Orbital Space Plane (or whatever) is a stupid idea. Single use rockets are safer and more efficient.
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Post by Col. Crackpot »

if space travel was privatized we'd be colonizing the moon already. Look at the Wright brothers, if after they invented the airplane, and the government was put in charge, they would have created something like the office of Supreme National Aeroplane Flying Undersecratary (SNAFU) and we would still be dealing with canvas wings and friggin piston engines because of all the goddamn red tape. NASA is a joke and a money pit. Kill the whole damn agency, let the Pentagon handle space based military affairs (which it already does) and then fund private space exploits in the form of grants, prizes and loans. I guarantee we'd get more bang for the buck.
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Post by Vympel »

Col. Crackpot wrote:if space travel was privatized we'd be colonizing the moon already.
No we wouldn't. There's nothing up there worth a damn to make the hundreds of billions of dollars of investment remotely worthwhile.
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Post by Zac Naloen »

does this mean congress is gonna leave the russians on their own with the international space station? the shuttle is going to be able to last much longer as it is, and with no replacement....
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Zac Naloen wrote:does this mean congress is gonna leave the russians on their own with the international space station? the shuttle is going to be able to last much longer as it is, and with no replacement....
Don't worry, they'll have the chinese to keep them company

:lol:
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Darksider wrote:
Zac Naloen wrote:does this mean congress is gonna leave the russians on their own with the international space station? the shuttle is going to be able to last much longer as it is, and with no replacement....
Don't worry, they'll have the chinese to keep them company

:lol:

um... good for them :?
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Post by BoredShirtless »

Col. Crackpot wrote:if space travel was privatized we'd be colonizing the moon already. Look at the Wright brothers, if after they invented the airplane, and the government was put in charge, they would have created something like the office of Supreme National Aeroplane Flying Undersecratary (SNAFU) and we would still be dealing with canvas wings and friggin piston engines because of all the goddamn red tape. NASA is a joke and a money pit. Kill the whole damn agency, let the Pentagon handle space based military affairs (which it already does) and then fund private space exploits in the form of grants, prizes and loans. I guarantee we'd get more bang for the buck.
Without competition privatization would be just as bad. Business ventures into space has a very limited return so I don't see too many startups popping up. And government grants for space exploration? There's not a country on this planet who has a wallet fat enough to make a real difference.
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BoredShirtless wrote: Without competition privatization would be just as bad. Business ventures into space has a very limited return
Hey fucking moron, ever hear of Bill Rutan? He's sunk over 60 million of
his own fucking money into the reuseable spaceship competition, of which
the prize is just 6 million, and he has a god damn good shot of making it.
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Post by BoredShirtless »

MKSheppard wrote:
BoredShirtless wrote: Without competition privatization would be just as bad. Business ventures into space has a very limited return
Hey fucking moron, ever hear of Bill Rutan? He's sunk over 60 million of
his own fucking money into the reuseable spaceship competition, of which
the prize is just 6 million, and he has a god damn good shot of making it.
Woop dee doo daa. Should the government put NASA up for sale now?
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Post by Vympel »

Zac Naloen wrote:does this mean congress is gonna leave the russians on their own with the international space station? the shuttle is going to be able to last much longer as it is, and with no replacement....
Americans are currently going up there on Russian rockets. In fact, the second Soyuz capsule recently came down (there was a small amount of hooplah about the first landing with an American on board).
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Vympel wrote:
Col. Crackpot wrote:if space travel was privatized we'd be colonizing the moon already.
No we wouldn't. There's nothing up there worth a damn to make the hundreds of billions of dollars of investment remotely worthwhile.
in the short term, you are right. However, the potential long term returns in the form of tourism, mining (see: rare earth elements) construction and eventual colonization are immense. The problem is that governments and agencies funded by governments almost never take the long view. If a governmental agency does not bear fruit within a short period of time, interest (and funding) is lost....or worse you get what NASA has become: unexciting repetative nonsense for the sake of spending money. Shit, only NASA could make something as breathtaking as exploring the cosmos and present it as somthing so mundane. The time has come for the government (at least for a while) to step back and let the private sector take over. History has shown that every revolutionary advance (air travel, the internet etc) of the past century has thrived when the government lets go! this is noexception.
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Post by Joe »

BS; if there were any real benefit to colonizing space, there would be a huge lobby advocating it and it would be making an impact. There's a reason that space travel has been exclusively-government funded so far; because no company in its right mind would make an investment in it with the current technology.
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Post by BoredShirtless »

Col. Crackpot wrote:
Vympel wrote:
Col. Crackpot wrote:if space travel was privatized we'd be colonizing the moon already.
No we wouldn't. There's nothing up there worth a damn to make the hundreds of billions of dollars of investment remotely worthwhile.
in the short term, you are right. However, the potential long term returns in the form of tourism, mining (see: rare earth elements) construction and eventual colonization are immense. The problem is that governments and agencies funded by governments almost never take the long view. If a governmental agency does not bear fruit within a short period of time, interest (and funding) is lost....or worse you get what NASA has become: unexciting repetative nonsense for the sake of spending money. Shit, only NASA could make something as breathtaking as exploring the cosmos and present it as somthing so mundane. The time has come for the government (at least for a while) to step back and let the private sector take over. History has shown that every revolutionary advance (air travel, the internet etc) of the past century has thrived when the government lets go! this is noexception.
All this requires tech advances in mining, construction, etc etc which don't fall under the immediate umbrella of the space industry. The fact is we're not advanced enough to explore space the way you envisage and we're so far behind the required base level of tech no one company can afford to lift it all by themselves. They have to let other industries reach a minimum level before furthering it for space.

You mentioned mining. Mining what? The moon? What's there? And how do you want to bring the resources back and still have a profit at the end of the day?

Tourism may be profitable. But mining and colonization, forget about it for the next 100 years at least.
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Post by Joe »

Mining, haha...the costs would exceed the benefits by a pretty huge factor, I imagine.
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Durran Korr wrote:Mining, haha...the costs would exceed the benefits by a pretty huge factor, I imagine.
Then you've not crunched the numbers.

The cost to go out to a NEO and drag it to orbit is projected at somewhere between 50 and 100 billion.

The market price of the iron, nickel, and cobalt in a Iron-Nickel asteroid a mere kilometer to a side is nine trillion. Unless we've suddenly found a huge, inexhaustable supply of those elements, it's not a waste.

Hell, I can knock off lots from the costs if Highwire actually makes the damn elevator. The idea that 'dur, the market will pursue everything that makes a profit instead of just doing the same thing cheaper' is silly.
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Post by Zac Naloen »

how far off is the space elevator, btw?
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Zac Naloen wrote:how far off is the space elevator, btw?
If Highwire actually lives up to it's promises? Five years. I'm not holding my breath.
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Post by Zac Naloen »

SirNitram wrote:
Zac Naloen wrote:how far off is the space elevator, btw?
If Highwire actually lives up to it's promises? Five years. I'm not holding my breath.

so, is congress looking at hirewire's promises and thinking, space plane not necessary?... cos that would kind of make sense.

but im not holding my breath either.
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Zac Naloen wrote:
SirNitram wrote:
Zac Naloen wrote:how far off is the space elevator, btw?
If Highwire actually lives up to it's promises? Five years. I'm not holding my breath.

so, is congress looking at hirewire's promises and thinking, space plane not necessary?... cos that would kind of make sense.

but im not holding my breath either.
It's possible. They'd pitched it to the US once before. However, I'm iffy on it. Five years without space flight doesn't jive with what's been said by the administration.

Or they might just be thinking it needs more review.
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SirNitram wrote:
Zac Naloen wrote:how far off is the space elevator, btw?
If Highwire actually lives up to it's promises? Five years. I'm not holding my breath.
This sounds like cold fusion... in fifty years... ;)

Anyway, the mining profits would more than offset space exploration, but there is (and always will be) the problem of humans and vaccum. Nowadays, NASA, and the few space agencies that sent humans into space, spent millions training a single human (at his/her most capable physical and mental condition) to that environment, an environment extremely lethal, where a small mistake can have dire consequences for the whole mission (whichever it is).
If space mining can be acomplished through automated means (and I mean about 95% automated, just have the push-button monkey), then it is a viable and very profitable solution, but usually, humans near machines tend to cause problems, and in these conditions, those problems spell d-e-a-t-h. Also, although the technology exists for mining, space mining is slightly different, and whichever company starts it is going to need to invest heavily up-front, not only in new technologies, but also, to get the necessary equipment up there (which is the main crux of the problem, getting up there is still too expensive). This initial investment is what puts-off any serious undertaking, and since there is still minerals down here, why go up there?
Regarding space tourism: I find it even more hard to harness real interest, except by the very few that can afford it, and pass the requisite medical exams.
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Post by SirNitram »

Current mining projections are mostly for remote-guided systems, as I recall. As in, pushbutton from Earth. Could be wrong.
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SirNitram wrote:
Durran Korr wrote:Mining, haha...the costs would exceed the benefits by a pretty huge factor, I imagine.
Then you've not crunched the numbers.

The cost to go out to a NEO and drag it to orbit is projected at somewhere between 50 and 100 billion.

The market price of the iron, nickel, and cobalt in a Iron-Nickel asteroid a mere kilometer to a side is nine trillion. Unless we've suddenly found a huge, inexhaustable supply of those elements, it's not a waste.

Hell, I can knock off lots from the costs if Highwire actually makes the damn elevator. The idea that 'dur, the market will pursue everything that makes a profit instead of just doing the same thing cheaper' is silly.
In this scenario, we just have--near Earth asteroids. That much metal in orbit will blow the bottom right out of the commodities market. It'll be worth a damn sight less than $9 trillion dollars by the time it gets to the ground, I can promise you that. For even more fun, it will also wipe out most of the value of gold and silver.

That wouldn't be all bad--the price of virtually everything would drop if the price of metal hit the basement--and of course, mining asteroids means you'll never have to open a mine on Earth again, but unless you can find a way to get that rock to Earth for cheaper than the fantastic prices currently being bandied about, it's not going to be worthwile for a private company to do--even if there was one willing to risk 100 billion dollars on a single asteroid.
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Post by SirNitram »

RedImperator wrote:
SirNitram wrote:
Durran Korr wrote:Mining, haha...the costs would exceed the benefits by a pretty huge factor, I imagine.
Then you've not crunched the numbers.

The cost to go out to a NEO and drag it to orbit is projected at somewhere between 50 and 100 billion.

The market price of the iron, nickel, and cobalt in a Iron-Nickel asteroid a mere kilometer to a side is nine trillion. Unless we've suddenly found a huge, inexhaustable supply of those elements, it's not a waste.

Hell, I can knock off lots from the costs if Highwire actually makes the damn elevator. The idea that 'dur, the market will pursue everything that makes a profit instead of just doing the same thing cheaper' is silly.
In this scenario, we just have--near Earth asteroids. That much metal in orbit will blow the bottom right out of the commodities market. It'll be worth a damn sight less than $9 trillion dollars by the time it gets to the ground, I can promise you that. For even more fun, it will also wipe out most of the value of gold and silver.

That wouldn't be all bad--the price of virtually everything would drop if the price of metal hit the basement--and of course, mining asteroids means you'll never have to open a mine on Earth again, but unless you can find a way to get that rock to Earth for cheaper than the fantastic prices currently being bandied about, it's not going to be worthwile for a private company to do--even if there was one willing to risk 100 billion dollars on a single asteroid.
Find me a way to get that much metal out of the ground for the same price, and we'll discuss how 'fantastic' the prices I quoted are. Anyway, I know exactly how to drop teh prices: Commercial Saturn V's, a space elevator of any size, etc.
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