Prediction: what will Iraq look like two years from now?

Patrick Degan · Post by **Patrick Degan** » 2003-11-16 09:07pm

Probably two years from now, Iraq will be hip-deep in the Shi'ite.

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2003-11-16 09:17pm

Illuminatus Primus wrote:Who the fuck cares about fairness? Its an Appeal to Popularity. The Japanese and Germans soundly revoked their right to democracy and needed to be straight.

I don't see how Islamic Fundie Loons are any different.

Yes, but Emperor-worship and Nazism were never politically correct. Islam is.

Andrew J. · Post by **Andrew J.** » 2003-11-16 09:55pm

PeZook wrote:
In the USSR, the opressive communist government killed millions of their own citizens, was slowly starving the rest to death, fed everyone anti-western scaremongering propaganda and intimidated them into being dull little obedient sheep with threat of violence.

Yet, they still have a communist party in their parliament, and former Party members are currently holding high positions in their government - elected, no less (Say, a certain former KGB operative named Vladimir)

Uh...I hope this isn't a stupid question, but isn't just about everybody in Russia a former Communist Party member? I just sort of had the impression that they shot you if you didn't join...

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2003-11-16 10:16pm

Andrew J. wrote:Uh...I hope this isn't a stupid question, but isn't just about everybody in Russia a former Communist Party member? I just sort of had the impression that they shot you if you didn't join...

No, they were citizens of the communist state. Being a member of the Communist Party was a different matter entirely, and entitled you to certain privileges that regular citizens didn't have.

The history of governmental overthrows is that the mandarins always survive the shakeup at the top. The fact of the matter is that in general, they are the only ones qualified to run things, so unless you do a complete ground-up rebuild (which is wholly impractical), you tend to wind up re-hiring most of the people you just threw out. Did you know that even after the Leninist revolution of Red October, there was a period of chaos and murder but eventually, a lot of the same bourgeoisie managers who ran the manufacturing plants before the revolution ended up running them again? It's easy to decapitate a government structure and stick your own head on top of the body, but the body tends to remain.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-11-16 10:26pm

Andrew J. wrote: Uh...I hope this isn't a stupid question, but isn't just about everybody in Russia a former Communist Party member? I just sort of had the impression that they shot you if you didn't join...

They shot you for not supporting the communist party. Actual membership was a privilege. In 1986 party members made up only 6.9% of the Soviet population, and that was typical.

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2003-11-16 10:30pm

Darth Wong wrote:Did you know that even after the Leninist revolution of Red October, there was a period of chaos and murder but eventually, a lot of the same bourgeoisie managers who ran the manufacturing plants before the revolution ended up running them again?

And then Iosif Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili took over

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2003-11-16 10:37pm

MKSheppard wrote:
Darth Wong wrote:Did you know that even after the Leninist revolution of Red October, there was a period of chaos and murder but eventually, a lot of the same bourgeoisie managers who ran the manufacturing plants before the revolution ended up running them again?
And then Iosif Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili took over

Wow that's a long name.

Post by **Vympel** » 2003-11-16 11:18pm

Durandal wrote:
Wow that's a long name.

Yeah, you can see why he changed it to Stalin eh?

Iraq will be a hell-hole.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2003-11-16 11:41pm

Vympel wrote:Yeah, you can see why he changed it to Stalin eh?

The history books would've recorded something like, "The man who took over Russia and turned it into the Soviet Union was Viss ... er, Visz, um ... Dzhgjk ... no ... ... some guy."

The_Nice_Guy · Post by **The_Nice_Guy** » 2003-11-17 12:34am

Yup, it's highly likely Iraq would be a democracy, but that's not always a good thing...

Can anybody say, "Tyranny by Religious Fanatical Majority?"

The Wobbly Guy

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2003-11-17 01:41am

I wonder if anyone in Congress mentioned anything like, "Hey maybe we should make Iraq a secular nation" at some point.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2003-11-17 01:44am

Durandal wrote:I wonder if anyone in Congress mentioned anything like, "Hey maybe we should make Iraq a secular nation" at some point.

Probably, but hey, since when has Congress done it's job.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2003-11-17 01:45am

Stormbringer wrote:
Durandal wrote:I wonder if anyone in Congress mentioned anything like, "Hey maybe we should make Iraq a secular nation" at some point.
Probably, but hey, since when has Congress done it's job.

The suggestion was probably quickly shouted down.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2003-11-17 02:03am

Durandal wrote:
Stormbringer wrote:
Durandal wrote:I wonder if anyone in Congress mentioned anything like, "Hey maybe we should make Iraq a secular nation" at some point.
Probably, but hey, since when has Congress done it's job.
The suggestion was probably quickly shouted down.

Probably, that's the problem with having both parties to spineless to deal with the real trouble. Between the knee jerk PC and religious inaffuation neither party has the cajones to suggest we ought to do something about fundamentalist Islam.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2003-11-17 02:05am

Congratulations to the people of Iraq, America will give you freedom of religion, not freedom from religion.

In other words, Taliban Mk 2.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2003-11-17 02:08am

After our occupation ends for certain, I wonder how close an eye we'll be keeping on Iraq. What happens when their parliament/congress/whatever passes a controversial law (and they will at some point) and use to Koran to justify it?

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2003-11-17 02:13am

Darth Wong wrote:Congratulations to the people of Iraq, America will give you freedom of religion, not freedom from religion.

In other words, Taliban Mk 2.

If they chose to inflict it upon themselves why are we supposed to be overly upset about it? Exactly how much obligation do we have to these people to keep saving them from themselves?

I'm not entirely happy with situation but these people also have to be able govern themselves at some point. Self governance isn't always a blessing when the common man can't or won't make rational choices for the future.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2003-11-17 02:16am

Stormbringer wrote:If they chose to inflict it upon themselves why are we supposed to be overly upset about it? Exactly how much obligation do we have to these people to keep saving them from themselves?

I'm not entirely happy with situation but these people also have to be able govern themselves at some point. Self governance isn't always a blessing when the common man can't or won't make rational choices for the future.

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, we're going to be actively involved in the creation of their new government. If we sit back and let them declare themselves a Muslim state with no respect for church and state separation without at least trying to pitch the idea to them, we partially bear the blame.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2003-11-17 02:22am

Durandal wrote:Unless I'm misunderstanding something, we're going to be actively involved in the creation of their new government. If we sit back and let them declare themselves a Muslim state with no respect for church and state separation without at least trying to pitch the idea to them, we partially bear the blame.

Well, ultimately they are the ones that decide their government. As I understand how this process is supposed to work we can recommend till we're blue in the face but they make the ultimate decision.

And we haven't seen how this plays out; we don't know what our recommendations will be nor do we know if they'll accept them.

Tsyroc · Post by **Tsyroc** » 2003-11-17 05:19am

Patrick Degan wrote:Probably two years from now, Iraq will be hip-deep in the Shi'ite.

You forgot to put the smilie with the Shi'ite eatin' grin on his face after that thar joke.

You'd have thought after all of the bombing they've dealt with in the last decade that the Shi'ite would have been scared out of them by now.

Andrew J. · Post by **Andrew J.** » 2003-11-17 05:33pm

Sea Skimmer wrote:
Andrew J. wrote: Uh...I hope this isn't a stupid question, but isn't just about everybody in Russia a former Communist Party member? I just sort of had the impression that they shot you if you didn't join...
They shot you for not supporting the communist party. Actual membership was a privilege. In 1986 party members made up only 6.9% of the Soviet population, and that was typical.

D'oh! Thanks for correcting me. I knew I was forgetting something...

Wicked Pilot · Post by **Wicked Pilot** » 2003-11-17 08:08pm

Well since no one has yet brought it up, I predict some kind of Yugoslav situation as soon as American troops pull out. Hopefully it won't happen, but my confidence in the Iraqi people is nill. If we want this whole nation building thing to work, it's gonna cost a lot of time, money, and blood.

Dahak · Post by **Dahak** » 2003-11-17 08:13pm

Darth Wong wrote:The history of governmental overthrows is that the mandarins always survive the shakeup at the top. The fact of the matter is that in general, they are the only ones qualified to run things, so unless you do a complete ground-up rebuild (which is wholly impractical), you tend to wind up re-hiring most of the people you just threw out.

That's also what helped to bring down the Weimarian Republic after WW1, when almost all bureacrats were simply taken over from the old Imperial German bureaucracy. Needless to say they were less than shining fighters for democracy...

The_Nice_Guy · Post by **The_Nice_Guy** » 2003-11-18 04:15am

We'll have to look to the rebuilding after WW2 to see what went right for Germany and Japan, though granted their situations are quite different from Iraq.

The biggest problem is the presence of an oppressive theocratic religion that could very well be empowered by the democratic process.

Well, nobody said it'll be easy.

The Wobbly Guy

Post by **Vympel** » 2003-11-18 04:32am

The_Nice_Guy wrote:
Well, nobody said it'll be easy.

On the contrary ...