taiwan mentions independence, china commences primary igniti

[Axis Kast]

Hm. Good point.

But if the Chinese have hundreds and the fighters are still considered high-quality, isn't that cutting it close?

[Vympel]

China only has a license to produce up to 250 of the single seat Su-27SK (as the J-11), the two-seat Su-27UBK and the Su-30MKK/Su-30MK2 are produced in Russia alone. Assume a maximum force of some ~450-500 FLANKERs of all types (76 Su-27SK/UBKs, 250 J-11s, 104 Su-30MKKs/MK2s), allowing for some more procurement later. Then there's the J-10, a sort-of-indigenous Chinese design roughly equivalent to the F-16/Mirage 2000. There might be a hundred or so aircraft ready by 2015. Against Taiwan's current air force (146 F-16s, 58 Mirage 2000s, 130 Ching-Kuo IDFs, and 144 F-5s) alone it won't exactly be a push over- throwing in the far more technically advanced 2015 USN fighter-wing (as well as USAF support from the F/A-22s, as well as considering Taiwan's air force will also be upgraded) it's not going to be that dangerous. China's other more mediocre fighters (the J-7 and J-8) aren't really a factor- they don't have the range to participate in a cross-strait fight.

[Axis Kast]

China is not expected to procure additional licenses for new production? Or to build other lines?

[Vympel]

China is not expected to procure additional licenses for new production?

Building 250 J-11s is expected to go until 2010-2015. By that time, acquiring permission to build more would be pretty pointless, considering the fighter will still be worth keeping but not worth building more of. By that time, they may be able to build them entirely without Russian participation or permission, but I doubt they'd do that- it'd ruin relations with an important arms supplier; in the long-run, it wouldn't be smart. The Chinese will probably still be focusing on their 'low' J-10s (some estimates say about 300 will be built), as well as hard at work on their J-XX stealth fighter program (at this stage, in very preliminary concept design stage) to replace the Su-27s.

Or to build other lines?

Dunno.

[Axis Kast]

And the Su-27 and Su-30 lines? How about bulk purchases of equipment to be made in Russia itself?

[Vympel]

And the Su-27 and Su-30 lines?

They'd probably be converted to build other aircraft (with some capability retained to service the existing fleets for spares etc). They *could* build more aircraft after the 250 deal has finished, I just don't think it's very probable.

How about bulk purchases of equipment to be made in Russia itself?

The Russian PAK FA next generation fighter program is in quite early stages itself- right now the best-seller is still the Su-27 series- in the coming years it's quite possible that they might order more Su-30MKK variants (hence the allowing for a few more orders in the ~450-500 aircraft estimate), but that'll peter out by about 2010 or so I reckon. Very optimistically, the Russians see the PAK FA as being ready for service around 2012-2015, and unless the Chinese front some serious cash to participate in the program, I doubt the Russian's will be too enthused about handing over their brand new fighter just as it's entering service with the VVS (if it's ready 10-15 years from now that is).

What the Russians can do is agressively market their upgrade packages to China- for their own Su-27 fleet they've developed the Su-27SM upgrade, which is actually quite similar to the Su-30MKK. If China wishes it, their entire Su-27SK/UBK fleet could be upgraded to virtual Su-30MKK levels. The subsequent proposed upgrade stages include more radical radar upgrades (complete replacement of the existing, relatively unsophisticated twist-cassergrain antenna with a 'Pero' phased array, or complete replacement of the entire radar). The radar upgrades are what's necessary for a serious increase in air to air capability (though the first stage Su-27SM upgrade adds R-77 missile compatibility and an increase in radar processing power).

[Axis Kast]

Any Chinese attempt on Taiwan would be proceeded by massive spending to increase existing Air Force OrBats with entire squadrons purchased from the Russians.

[Omega-13]

china was rumoured to have bought large amounts of Sunburn anti shipping missles from Russia,

even the US congress was worried when they heard this

[Worlds Spanner]

All of this China vs. 1 CVBG is interesting, but is it relevant?

Wouldn't any US Task Force include huge numbers of USAF aircraft flying from Japan and other bases in the Pacific, no doubt including Taiwan?

It seems to me that as soon as Chinese forces left whatever space Chinese SAMs covered, they would be torn to shreds. The USN would only need to use AEGIS to destroy surface to surface ballistic missels (it can do that, right?) and the rest of it's ships (cruisers subs, what have you) to prevent a landing in Taiwan.

China just can't win.

Also, I think the US would jump at the chance to save Taiwan if China was going to attack. The War on Terror is a mostly Army operation that is costing the US international support. This would be a chance to use the Navy and Air Force to come to the aid of an old ally that is fighting a war against clear Chinese agression. It would be an easy fight to win and a huge political coup.

[Vympel]

china was rumoured to have bought large amounts of Sunburn anti shipping missles from Russia,

even the US congress was worried when they heard this

They can only fire them (Moskit) from their two Project 956E Destroyers (soon to be joined by two new Project 956EM Destroyers with extended range versions). Not good enough, but a worry if they manage to fire.

Any Chinese attempt on Taiwan would be proceeded by massive spending to increase existing Air Force OrBats with entire squadrons purchased from the Russians.

Such an order would take about four-five years to complete- if the balance of power over the straits is seen as changing, I'm sure the US would be glad to supply more fighters to Taiwan.

All of this China vs. 1 CVBG is interesting, but is it relevant?

Wouldn't any US Task Force include huge numbers of USAF aircraft flying from Japan and other bases in the Pacific, no doubt including Taiwan?

It seems to me that as soon as Chinese forces left whatever space Chinese SAMs covered, they would be torn to shreds. The USN would only need to use AEGIS to destroy surface to surface ballistic missels (it can do that, right?) and the rest of it's ships (cruisers subs, what have you) to prevent a landing in Taiwan.

China just can't win.

Also, I think the US would jump at the chance to save Taiwan if China was going to attack. The War on Terror is a mostly Army operation that is costing the US international support. This would be a chance to use the Navy and Air Force to come to the aid of an old ally that is fighting a war against clear Chinese agression. It would be an easy fight to win and a huge political coup.

You're quite right- the US would go all out on China for such a transgression and they'd be under attack from multiple fronts by multipe CVBGs (like every carrier in the Pacific and Indian Ocean that's available) and USAF units rushed to the theatre. Theorizing about a relatively helpless single battle group is interesting, but not very realistic.

Not to mention that even if China had the massive amounts of amphibious capability to pull it off, they would still be wiped out- first by the swarms of USN SSNs prowling the straits, and then by the heavily defended, very few landing points on Taiwan's coasts (IIRC, there are but three possible spots to land, but whatever it is, the point is that Taiwan has been prepared for an assault for decades).

[Grand Moff Yenchin]

Wow, for the first time in three years. China is just saber rattling. There's nothing they can realistically do which won't lead to massive PRC losses both militarily and economically. They benefit too much from trade with Taiwan anyway.

The Chinese government only threats TW near political elections.

Legistlator Election: PRC military begins missile testing.
County governer Election: More missiles, more "policy announcements"
Presidential Election: "Don't elect Chen!!!" on a conference that has jack shit with TW policy.

and so on..

The purpose is mainly to get people electing lapdogs. Unfortunately a large propotion of TWese people have a "du-lan" attitude. Threat them? They act oppositely. Which is a large reason why Chen became president.

[Grand Moff Yenchin]

I think Taiwan should just go ahead and declare independence, and force China to admit they can't really do shit against them at all.

Except that also means giving up Taiwan's claim to being the true goverment of the mainland, which a large segment of the government doesn't want to do.

I think that part has basically vanished. Nowadays the sounds of strait policy are:

1. Independence
2. Peaceful unity
3. Lapdog unity
4. Stay the same.

"Eliminating the commie bandits" or "Reoccuping the Mainland" has basicaly turned into a big joke.

[Sea Skimmer]

Not to mention that even if China had the massive amounts of amphibious capability to pull it off, they would still be wiped out- first by the swarms of USN SSNs prowling the straits, and then by the heavily defended, very few landing points on Taiwan's coasts (IIRC, there are but three possible spots to land, but whatever it is, the point is that Taiwan has been prepared for an assault for decades).

Yes Taiwan has only three useabul beaches, each of which has been heavily fortified and are all well guarded, they've got something like 15 small division on active service and 1.5 million reserves.

[septesix]

I think Taiwan should just go ahead and declare independence, and force China to admit they can't really do shit against them at all.

Except that also means giving up Taiwan's claim to being the true goverment of the mainland, which a large segment of the government doesn't want to do.

I think that part has basically vanished. Nowadays the sounds of strait policy are:

1. Independence
2. Peaceful unity
3. Lapdog unity
4. Stay the same.

"Eliminating the commie bandits" or "Reoccuping the Mainland" has basicaly turned into a big joke.

Exactly. Most of the taiwaness never want anything to do with China anyway, except maybe seeing it as another viable investing location. And I say , let them do their threat. The more the better, if only to stop KMT from winning the next election.

Speaking of which, which one are you for? (1 to 4) It's nice to see a fellow taiwaness on the board here.

[Col. Crackpot]

Not to mention that even if China had the massive amounts of amphibious capability to pull it off, they would still be wiped out- first by the swarms of USN SSNs prowling the straits, and then by the heavily defended, very few landing points on Taiwan's coasts.

*conjures up an image of half a dozen Los Angeles class boats with a Virginia and a Seawolf thrown in for good luck fucking over the PLAN Tom Clancy style. creams shorts. How many contacts can a Los Angeles with a BSY-1 engage at once?

[Grand Moff Yenchin]

I think that part has basically vanished. Nowadays the sounds of strait policy are:

1. Independence
2. Peaceful unity
3. Lapdog unity
4. Stay the same.

"Eliminating the commie bandits" or "Reoccuping the Mainland" has basicaly turned into a big joke.

Exactly. Most of the taiwaness never want anything to do with China anyway, except maybe seeing it as another viable investing location. And I say , let them do their threat. The more the better, if only to stop KMT from winning the next election.

Speaking of which, which one are you for? (1 to 4) It's nice to see a fellow taiwaness on the board here.

So far it is 4. I'm not that radical on 1 since IMO TW is basically 1 with a slight twist. As for 2 so far the environment as well as economic status of China cannot convince me that it will be a happy ending. And of course I strongly oppose 3 or I wouldn't have used the word "lapdog" .

[Axis Kast]

Could Taiwan really afford to challenge China tit-for-tat in arms race? Even assuming the Americans step in, the PRC retains a massive advantage in terms of operable equipment. With the right missiles, they could make a good (i.e. expensive) go of it, too. The Falklands, anyone?

[Sea Skimmer]

*conjures up an image of half a dozen Los Angeles class boats with a Virginia and a Seawolf thrown in for good luck fucking over the PLAN Tom Clancy style. creams shorts. How many contacts can a Los Angeles with a BSY-1 engage at once?

Four separate targets can be fired upon, IIRC only the sonar crew can only use the wire guidance for two separate targets at a time. Not that it would matter, gator vessels are large slow and very noisy targets. Most likely the first attacks would strip away the escorts, and then the transports could be wiped out at will. A large chunk of the Chinese forces would probably be lifted in very large landing craft, and those would be likely left for aircraft and surface ships to destroy. The SSN's would be needed to help hunt down the massive Chinese SSK fleet, so they likely won't spend much time or many torpedoes sinking gators.

[arctic_series]

I think that part has basically vanished. Nowadays the sounds of strait policy are:

1. Independence
2. Peaceful unity
3. Lapdog unity
4. Stay the same.

"Eliminating the commie bandits" or "Reoccuping the Mainland" has basicaly turned into a big joke.

Exactly. Most of the taiwaness never want anything to do with China anyway, except maybe seeing it as another viable investing location. And I say , let them do their threat. The more the better, if only to stop KMT from winning the next election.

Speaking of which, which one are you for? (1 to 4) It's nice to see a fellow taiwaness on the board here.

as a mainlander myself, i forsee something more like a mix of options 1, 2 & 4. more like a USA to Canada relationship in the long run.

however i do see this latest attempt at independence a dodgy scheme to get some votes on chen's behalf.

[arctic_series]

meanwhile.. i found this interesting page.

have a read http://thechinadesk.tripod.com/ti_and_the_stockholm.htm

[Grand Moff Yenchin]

The more the better, if only to stop KMT from winning the next election.

The main problem of KMT is that it has turned into a pointless political party and the current stupid idea of leaning to the "People's First Party" has damaged it's image on the "Local-Provincers". If someone doesn't do something the KMT will eventually degenerate lower. Dr. Sun is crying

artic_series: Chen's actions might be related with the election but I think as long as he or any other DPP member is in that office, sooner or later there might be some stunt that will be pulled for independence. During the 3 years there still has been some mild pro-independence moves, like putting "Taiwan" on passports. The recent "public vote" seems to be a warm up of those stunts as well.

It's nice to see a fellow taiwaness on the board here.

[Col. Crackpot]

as a mainlander myself, i forsee something more like a mix of options 1, 2 & 4. more like a USA to Canada relationship in the long run.

Yes, just like the US and Canada. After all the United States regularly threatens Canada with invasion and if they seek to assert their independance.

[Quote="arctic_series"however i do see this latest attempt at independence a dodgy scheme to get some votes on chen's behalf. [/quote]

Yeah, seeking freedom for a totalitarian communist police state is a dodgy scheme to get votes. So tell me Mr PRC citizen, what do you get to vote for?

[arctic_series]

Yes, just like the US and Canada. After all the United States regularly threatens Canada with invasion and if they seek to assert their independance.

you know what i meant, don't take it out of context.

Yeah, seeking freedom for a totalitarian communist police state is a dodgy scheme to get votes.

http://thechinadesk.tripod.com/defendin ... ocracy.htm

So tell me Mr PRC citizen, what do you get to vote for?

because being able to vote automatically means the said political system is superior in everyway possible ignoring all other determinants ?

[Grand Moff Yenchin]

meanwhile.. i found this interesting page.

have a read http://thechinadesk.tripod.com/ti_and_the_stockholm.htm

Interesting, never heard of this guy but it seems he uses Professor Feng's articles.

Of course attacking the person is pointless. But the points in the article is also a bit strawman.

A: This is neglecting the fact that the "Han Taiwanese" have landed on Taiwan far long before 1949 so they consider the island as their homeland. Bringing out the aborgines is a further show of discrimination caused by the "Out Provincers" (Damn I hate using this generic term). Ethnic unity is part of being a Taiwanese.

B: Typical attack again. Although I admit lots of people have nostalogia about Japan. However, judging from the current sound of mainstream TIs, there is no lean to be colonized by Japan. I have no idea about the textbook policy. Gotta check them.

C: Typical nostolagia of Chiang. Connections with mobsters? Chiang Ching-Kuo hired the boss of the United Bamboo to assassinate the author of "The Ching-Kuo Biography". Madame Lee vs. Imelda? How about the "72 Big Luggages" of Madame Chiang? Comparing Chiang to Lee is a red herring as well as neglecting facts. Also, although there indeed was an "economic miracle". Once Taiwan was open to free market, it also suffered from it. It was actually Lee who kept the money flow in.

D: This neither justifies unification for the current time. And still more "pot calling kettle black" stuff, ie., The KMT as well as People's First Party also have draft evaders. Sung Chu-Yu's son is a good example. Politicians. Always the same.

[arctic_series]

er what that piece of article basically says A B C are pretty much wack...

http://thechinadesk.tripod.com/defendin ... ocracy.htm

^that's the article that says a whole bunch of stuff, care to clarify whether or not it's just simply biased or does is it relatively objective ?