Will Saddams capture stop the Iraqi militants?

Post by **weemadando** » 2003-12-14 08:05pm

Polling your opinions...

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2003-12-14 08:07pm

My guess is that Saddam's capture itself will have little impact on the militants, with only a few loyalists abandoning their plans, but that the atmosphere in Iraq will change in response to the capture, and that this shifting atmosphere WILL have more of an impact.

SirNitram · Post by **SirNitram** » 2003-12-14 08:08pm

His capture will have an effect on some of the militants, but the Coalition isn't out of the woods yet. The lack of tough boy talk from the Marines suggests things will continue to improve.

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2003-12-14 08:11pm

Attacks will intensify for a month or two, then decrease.

Sir Sirius · Post by **Sir Sirius** » 2003-12-14 08:39pm

In the short term attacks might get worse, in the long term I doubt Saddam's capture will have any significant effect on the militants. Some of the loyalist might get disheartened, but since most of the guerillas probably aren't loyalists I doubt it make much of a difference.

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2003-12-14 08:48pm

Short term all the militants get real pissed and attack more, but in a few weeks I expect a significant dropoff.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2003-12-14 08:50pm

It depends on how much Saddam knows about the militants. If he sings like a bird, it should help the Americans track them down and eliminate them. And I suspect he will sing like a bird.

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2003-12-14 08:53pm

Darth Wong wrote:It depends on how much Saddam knows about the militants. If he sings like a bird, it should help the Americans track them down and eliminate them. And I suspect he will sing like a bird.

According to Time, so far he's refusing to answer much of anything.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/ ... 72,00.html

We shall see.

EmperorSolo51 · Post by **EmperorSolo51** » 2003-12-14 08:57pm

Joe wrote: According to Time, so far he's refusing to answer much of anything.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/ ... 72,00.html

We shall see.

I think Saddam will eventually talk and tell Coalition forces what they want to know. Saddam, for his entire life, has always looked for a way to survive. If he thinks that by talking coalition forces will save his life, he will do it.

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2003-12-14 09:19pm

I doubt he has any misconceptions about his impending execution.

Hamel · Post by **Hamel** » 2003-12-14 09:20pm

If he knows that his fate isn't looking good, then he may not spill teh beans.

Post by **Gandalf** » 2003-12-14 09:28pm

I think there will be a bunch of retaliation attacks, then most will just give up.

Symmetry · Post by **Symmetry** » 2003-12-14 09:31pm

It'll speed up their transition from actual militants to simple gangsters.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-12-14 09:44pm

It may stop a few of them, more importantly it will probably improve the general populaces opinion of American forces.

Peregrin Toker · Post by **Peregrin Toker** » 2003-12-15 10:36am

A question before I can come with an answer:

Were Saddam actively leading the militants???

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2003-12-15 11:00am

I seriously doubt that Saddam was doing any sort of coordination of resistance forces from his, quite literal, hole in the ground. He was more focused on hiding than anything else. His main use to the resistance was as a figurehead.

However, with his capture, there is now something of a power vacuum in the resistance movement. Saddam wasn't well-liked, even among his family (in fact, it was a family member who ratted him out), so I doubt that the so-called loyalists really give a shit about him. The loyalists mainly wanted him back in power because they had wealth and power under his rule and have lost both in the new occupational government.

I suspect that one of Saddam's higher-ups will step in to fill the void and promise the resistance leaders handsome rewards if they put him into power. The resistance doesn't so much want Saddam back in power as they want Coalition forces out of the country. They don't care which violent dictator gets put up in their government; they only care about having personal power. And the only government they'll have power under is a dictatorship.

phongn · Post by **phongn** » 2003-12-15 11:51am

Durandal wrote:I suspect that one of Saddam's higher-ups will step in to fill the void and promise the resistance leaders handsome rewards if they put him into power. The resistance doesn't so much want Saddam back in power as they want Coalition forces out of the country. They don't care which violent dictator gets put up in their government; they only care about having personal power. And the only government they'll have power under is a dictatorship.

There could be a power struggle, OTOH, between various factions of the resistance.

Alex Moon · Post by **Alex Moon** » 2003-12-15 12:22pm

Well, from this link it appears that his capture is already paying off to some degree.

But U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Mark Hertling of the 1st Armored Division told AP in Baghdad that the first round of Saddam's questioning and documents in a briefcase found with him was "connecting the dots" in intelligence on the insurgency.

"It was reported as his personal briefcase," Hertling said. "There were a lot of things that can be exploited."

Since Saddam's was detained, U.S. Army teams from the 1st Armored Division have seized one high-ranking former regime figure — who has yet to be identified — and that prisoner has given up a few others, Hertling said. All the men are currently being interrogated and more raids are expected, Hertling said.

Hertling described the newly arrested figures as "key" but did not indicate whether they were on the U.S. military's list of 55 most-wanted regime officials. Thirteen of those figures remain at large, the highest ranking of them Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, a close Saddam aide who U.S. officials say may be directly organizing resistance.

"We've already gleaned intelligence value from his capture," Hertling said of Saddam. "We've already been able to capture a couple of key individuals here in Baghdad. We've completely confirmed one of the cells. It's putting the pieces together and it's connecting the dots. It has already helped us significantly in Baghdad."

Hertling said: "I'm sure he was giving some guidance to some key figures in this insurgency."

Alex Moon · Post by **Alex Moon** » 2003-12-15 12:29pm

Even if Saddam wasn't running the insurgency, he would have to know a few people near the top simply for self-preservation. Some of his former commanders are no doubt leading this insurgency, and he would need their help once the US was kicked out in order to reestablish power. Otherwise the new guy in charge would arrange for him to commit "suicide" like old Abu Nidal.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2003-12-15 01:34pm

Hamel wrote:If he knows that his fate isn't looking good, then he may not spill teh beans.

He knew his fate wasn't looking good for a long time, it's doesn't matter too much. Saddam is going to look for a way to save his skin and talking just might be the only way. Once it really sinks in, I think he'll talk.

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Will Saddams capture stop the Iraqi militants?

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Will Saddams capture stop the Iraqi militants?