Libya admits WMD program, agrees on disarment/inspections

Alex Moon · Post by **Alex Moon** » 2003-12-20 01:41am

Libya's leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, has admitted that his country had been trying to develop a broad arsenal of unconventional weapons, and he promised to dismantle them up and submit to international inspections, President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain said Friday.

Mr. Bush said that if Col. Qaddafi followed through, Libya could "regain a secure and respected place" among nations.

Libya's actions came after nine months of secret diplomacy, beginning with an overture from Colonel Qaddafi to London and Washington just as the invasion of Iraq was beginning.

Mr. Bush's aides, clearly seeking to build on the capture of Saddam Hussein last Saturday, described the Libyan action as directly linked to the Iraq war, suggesting that Colonel Qaddafi had decided to give up his weapons aspirations rather than face off against the United States and its allies.

Speaking to reporters in a hastily called session in the White House press room, Mr. Bush praised Colonel Qaddafi's agreement to open his country to full inspections.

This is the first time Colonel Qaddafi has admitted to having such unconventional weapons or programs to produce them, government and independent experts say.

But the details given by the White House indicated that for more than two decades, Libya had deceived international nuclear inspectors who have visited the country.

Like Iran, it hid facilities to produce nuclear fuel, though it did not appear that the Libyans actually succeeded in making the kind of fissile material needed to produce a bomb.

"Because Libya has a troubled history with America and Britain, we will be vigilant in ensuring its government lives up to all its responsibilities," Mr. Bush said.

His announcement came just two days before the 15th anniversary of the bombing of Pan Am 103, an act of terrorism for which a Libyan agent was convicted two years ago.

In a clear reference to North Korea and Iran, two other countries that are suspected of pursuing programs to develop unconventional weapons, Mr. Bush added that "I hope other leaders will find an example" in Libya's action.

In two trips to Libya, including one earlier this month, American and British intelligence and weapons experts were given a tour of the country's arsenal, reportedly including mustard gas, a World War I-vintage chemical weapon, and materials for making nerve gas and missiles, the latter from North Korea.

None of these discoveries surprised the experts.

But one senior Administration official told reporters on Friday evening that the Libyans had gotten "much further" in their nuclear program than the United States had suspected, showing the Western visitors centrifuges that could be used to produce highly enriched uranium.

The officials declined to say what kind of centrifuges had been found, or what nations appeared to have helped Libya. Both North Korea and Iran have similar programs under way, though the administration official said that in Libya's case, Colonel Qaddafi's government had not declared that it had actually produced any weapons-grade uranium.

"That is something we will be pursuing," the official said. He added that the United States had learned a considerable amount about North Korea's missile trading business in the course of the talks with Libya.

A British official said the Libyans had shown visitors 10 nuclear-related sites, adding that while the country had not manufactured a nuclear weapon, "it was close to producing one."

Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency will be sent to assess how close, and to monitor the dismantling of the facilities, British and American officials said.

Not surprisingly, the White House described the surprise announcement as a victory for Mr. Bush in facing down rogue states developing such weapons. They also touted the Libyan move as vindication for the decision to go to war against Iraq — where no unconventional weapons have been found — because of the message it sent.

"In word and action, we have clarified the choices left to potential adversaries," Mr. Bush told reporters. "And when leaders make the wise and responsible choice, when they renounce terror and weapons of mass destruction, as Colonel Qaddafi has now done, they serve the interest of their own people and they add to the security of all nations."

The Libyan government, in a statement, said it had made the decision of its own "free will."

The White House said that despite Libya's apparent renunciation of unconventional weapons, Mr. Bush was not yet ready to lift American sanctions; United Nations sanctions were removed on Sept. 12 after a settlement involving the Pan Am 103 bombing over Lockerbie, Scotland, which killed 269 people.

In London, Mr. Blair said the Libyan overture on disarmament was a direct outgrowth of the talks that led to the settlements over the bombing. Under that agreement, Libya agreed to pay at least $5 million to the relatives of each victim.

In January 2001, a Libyan military intelligence official was convicted in the bombing, while an executive with the country's airline was acquitted. Mr. Blair said Libya wanted "to see if it could resolve its weapons of mass destruction issue in a similarly cooperative manner."

Libya's latest actions complicate the debate over the Iraq war for the Democrats, particularly for Howard Dean, the apparent front-runner in the primaries, who has opposed the war and said recently that the capture of Mr. Hussein had not made Americans any safer.

On Friday evening, though, many Democrats were calling Libya's renunciation of its weapons systems significant.

Ashton B. Carter, an assistant secretary of defense under President Clinton who is now co-director of the Harvard-Stanford Preventive Defense Project, agreed that Iraq was a turning point in convincing Colonel Qaddafi to give up his weapons.

"One certainly hopes that what we did in Iraq put countries like Libya on notice that we're really serious about countering proliferation," said Mr. Carter, who has been advising Dr. Dean.

Some families of those killed on the Pan Am flight, now preparing to mark the grim anniversary, were clearly taken by surprise by Mr. Bush's suggestion that relations with Libya could markedly improve.

"I am in a state of horror and sickened shock," said Susan Cohen, whose only child, Theodora, 20, was on the plane. "Everyone was surprised by this."

"This was strictly a political, commercial decision," she said in a telephone interview. "I'm not a fool. I know it's oil and money interests. At the end of World War II, if Adolf Hitler could have been brought back in the fold, would we have done it? And this isn't even the end of the war."

Although Libya signed the international treaty banning nuclear weapons in 1975 and a similar international ban on biological weapons in 1982, independent weapons experts said Colonel Qaddafi had been trying to obtain unconventional weapons for decades.

Writing in The Nonproliferation Review in 1997, Joshua Sinai, then a senior analyst at the Library of Congress, concluded that Libya had in fact developed a "rudimentary capability to produce such weapons," particularly chemical weapons, by the late 1980's.

Libya is one of the few nations that have refused to sign the treaty banning chemical weapons. In a 1987 conflict with Chad, it became one of a handful of states to use such weapons in war, when it fired off Iranian-supplied mustard-gas bombs.

Washington has long accused Libya of producing blister and nerve agents at secret plants in Tarhuna, 50 miles southwest of Tripoli, and at the Pharma complex in Rabta, 75 miles southwest of Tripoli. Most of the chemical weapons seen by the visiting inspectors were at Rabta, one senior official said Friday.

Though Libya signed the treaty banning germ weapons in 1982, questions have remained as to whether it was complying with the agreement.

Intelligence agencies have alleged, for instance, that Colonel Qaddafi attempted to recruit South African scientists to help him develop biological weapons. And American intelligence agents concluded earlier this year that Nizar Hindawi, a senior scientist who once led Iraq's germ weapons program, had tried to emigrate to Libya in the mid-1990's, officials said.

But many analysts continued to say that if Libya had a weapons program at all, the effort was very primitive, and years from producing biological weapons.

Matthew L. Wald contributed reporting for this article.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/20/inter ... BY.html?hp

CaptainChewbacca · Post by **CaptainChewbacca** » 2003-12-20 03:35am

Seems like invading Iraq has some other countries shaking. I'm reminded of a line from West Wing:

"Let the word ring forth, from this time and place; When you hurt Americans we don't hit back with a proportional response, we come crashing down on you with total disaster!"

Dang I love Martin Sheen's acting.

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2003-12-20 05:16am

CaptainChewbacca wrote: Dang I love Martin Sheen's acting.

Nah, Sheen is what liberals wanted Clinton to be, not a dithering moron.

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2003-12-20 05:17am

Clinton wouldn't have had as many problems with the Republicans IMHO
if he had been more decisive in the foreign policy part of his presidency,
rather than relying on Tomahawk strikes to carry out "retalitatory" strikes
that had no real value at all except blowing up some long abandoned
tents.

Stuart Mackey · Post by **Stuart Mackey** » 2003-12-20 07:02am

*Rene*You stupid Colonel! do you not know that nukes on ballistic launchers automatically buy respect from nations?*Rene*

Good that a fuck nut will peacably forgo such weapons.

I wonder what the 'incentive' was? or how destructive that incentive could be?

TheDarkling · Post by **TheDarkling** » 2003-12-20 07:19am

I don't see this having much to do with the invasion of Iraq, Qaddafi wants to be part of the international community again, his several previous incarnations as leader of the Arab world and big daddy of terrorism didn’t exactly work out for him.

He negotiated with the UK to his satisfaction and asked the UK to help smooth negotiation with the US in order to get them to accept Libya back into the mainstream (which it was obvious dropping WMD would be the way to go, the US has to reward this behaviour to encourage others to do so).

Still it is nice to see Qaddafi realise that trade and international standing is more important than a tiny nuclear deterrent which if he plays nice he won't need anyway.

LordShaithis · Post by **LordShaithis** » 2003-12-20 02:17pm

TheDarkling wrote:I don't see this having much to do with the invasion of Iraq, Qaddafi wants to be part of the international community again, his several previous incarnations as leader of the Arab world and big daddy of terrorism didn’t exactly work out for him.

He negotiated with the UK to his satisfaction and asked the UK to help smooth negotiation with the US in order to get them to accept Libya back into the mainstream (which it was obvious dropping WMD would be the way to go, the US has to reward this behaviour to encourage others to do so).

Still it is nice to see Qaddafi realise that trade and international standing is more important than a tiny nuclear deterrent which if he plays nice he won't need anyway.

From CNN.com:

Gadhafi said Libya's intent in entering into the agreement was to gain access to defensive weapons and banned technology, to have sanctions against it lifted and "to eliminate any threats against Libya from the West and from the (United) States in particular."

They ph34r teh pwnage!!1!

The Cleric · Post by **The Cleric** » 2003-12-20 03:01pm

TheDarkling wrote:I don't see this having much to do with the invasion of Iraq, Qaddafi wants to be part of the international community again, his several previous incarnations as leader of the Arab world and big daddy of terrorism didn’t exactly work out for him.

He negotiated with the UK to his satisfaction and asked the UK to help smooth negotiation with the US in order to get them to accept Libya back into the mainstream (which it was obvious dropping WMD would be the way to go, the US has to reward this behaviour to encourage others to do so).

Still it is nice to see Qaddafi realise that trade and international standing is more important than a tiny nuclear deterrent which if he plays nice he won't need anyway.

He saw what kind of reaction can happen when the US gets pissed off. It would scare me.

TheDarkling · Post by **TheDarkling** » 2003-12-20 03:26pm

GrandAdmiralPrawn wrote: They ph34r teh pwnage!!1!

One reason in four and when viewed in light of his actions over the last few years together with the fact that he must be rather far down the list of nations the US needs to deal with, I think it becomes rather clear that the impetus behind this is simply to re-enter the international mainstream, making sure the US isn't likely to bomb you is a good thing but I doubt it is the main reason Qaddafi is doing this (or has done anything in the past).

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-12-20 06:04pm

Stuart Mackey wrote:
I wonder what the 'incentive' was? or how destructive that incentive could be?

[1] Get to sell oil to America
[2] Retain the capability to produce and sell oil

Lord Poe · Post by **Lord Poe** » 2003-12-21 12:57pm

Wow...how can an armpit of a country like Libya have a WMD program, yet Iraq "didn't".....?

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2003-12-21 01:06pm

More details on lybia

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/ar ... Dec20.html

washingtonpost.com > World > Africa > Libya > Post

Libya Made Progress in Nuclear Goal

By Peter Slevin and Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, December 21, 2003; Page A01

U.S. and British specialists invited into Libya's weapons laboratories and warehouses this fall found an unexpectedly advanced nuclear program and an intensive effort to build more powerful missiles, said senior U.S. officials who had been logging evidence that Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi was trying to upgrade his arsenal.

The nuclear discoveries proved most surprising to intelligence officials, who said Libya had made substantial progress in acquiring the sophisticated equipment needed to produce weapons-grade uranium. Officials noted the existence of centrifuges and thousands of essential parts, calling the program nascent but active.

Although Libya's ambition to acquire weapons of mass destruction had never been questioned, officials said its abilities do not approach the sophistication and scope of weapons programs in North Korea and Iran. Its efforts have been limited by lack of home-grown expertise and by international trade sanctions.

Libya also possesses an aging but potent stockpile of mustard gas and had conducted experiments on the nerve agents sarin and soman, U.S. officials said yesterday.

On Friday, Gaddafi announced he will abandon unconventional weapons, freeze his nuclear program and allow international inspectors to test his word.

The extraordinary change of course by Gaddafi, who intervened personally to speed secret negotiations with the United States and Britain, has given the Bush administration hope for what one official yesterday called a "huge intelligence opportunity" -- the chance to learn which countries and companies helped Libya's illicit weapons effort.

Gaddafi dispatched a top government official yesterday to Vienna to meet with Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. After years of denying the existence of weapons programs, Gaddafi's government has promised to provide full details and permit surprise inspections in an attempt to end two decades of crippling U.S. economic sanctions.

A monitoring structure has not been established, but the Bush administration will look to several international organizations. The IAEA, which the White House has openly criticized, is expected to handle nuclear questions, while chemical-weapons programs will be evaluated by the relatively untested Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

Intelligence officials said they have been struck by Libya's apparent openness, described by one senior analyst as the most remarkable disclosure he had seen in 30 years of work in the field.

The U.S. officials praised the assistance given by Gaddafi himself during late-night meetings in Tripoli between Libyan scientists and American and British proliferation specialists. One official said the Libyan leader, whose government still appears on the State Department's list of terrorism sponsors, was a "driver and motivator." Still, officials said it would take time to know whether Gaddafi will prove trustworthy in this new relationship.

U.S. authorities believe Gaddafi hopes not only to open Libya and its oil industry to badly needed American investment, but to burnish his own legacy and smooth the succession path for his sons. One son, Saif Islam Gaddafi, told CNN yesterday that the government sees "no need anymore for acquiring nuclear weapons."

On the nuclear front, he said Libya had aimed to develop a nuclear capability for civilian purposes, "but also we know that it is easy to be transferred into a military project."

U.S. and British specialists invited to Libya said they found few surprises in Libya's chemical weapons program and found no concrete evidence of an existing biological weapons effort. They questioned the Libyans about equipment and research that could be applied to the production of germ warfare, but the Libyans denied that such a program had ever existed.

Libya controls dozens of tons of mustard gas, a World War I-era chemical weapon produced more than a decade ago by Libyan scientists, according to U.S. officials. The Libyans had also acquired valuable components capable of producing chemical weapons and more peaceable substances alike, despite years of international sanctions.

Interviews with Libyan scientists provided a "living example of how dual-use items could be used," said a U.S. intelligence official who traveled to Libya as part of the U.S.-British team.

The nuclear field was one place where the Libyans were "substantially further along than had been publicly disclosed," an intelligence analyst said yesterday. Officials who toured 10 sites said they had seen centrifuges for enriching uranium and countless valuable parts.

The Libyans, he said, "denied any actual enrichment had taken place." The visiting team did not see a "cascade" -- the array of centrifuges needed to begin the enrichment process. An intelligence official described it as an active but "nascent nuclear program" that was being carried out at 10 sites. One administration source estimated that Libya was still likely years from being able to build a reliable atomic weapon.

Although the existence of the mustard gas and 250-pound bombs for delivering it was widely known, weapons specialists have long questioned Libya's ability to produce effective unconventional weapons. Compared with states such as Iran and North Korea, Libya's weapons program never got much respect.

One senior Bush administration official, in a recent interview, said Libya's bumbling attempts at mastering the science of advanced weapons earned it a reputation as the "clown prince of weapons of mass destruction."

Years of isolation, and rampant corruption and nepotism, left Libya's weapons laboratories weak, inefficient and demoralized. But Libya and its mercurial leader, whose agents exploded a bomb at Berlin's La Belle disco in 1986 and blew apart Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988, could not be counted out. One reason was international backing.

"It is believed that all of Libya's programs have been heavily dependent on foreign supply," said Gary Samore, a weapons specialist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

Indeed, intelligence officials had become increasingly worried about Libyan efforts to obtain weapons-usable parts and equipment from other countries after international embargoes against the country were eased in the late 1990s.

North Korea helped Libya to develop a missile that could travel 500 miles, a U.S. official said.

Libya also is believed to have been the intended recipient of a large shipment of missile-related technology aboard the North Korean-flagged freighter Kuwolsan, boarded by Indian customs officers in June 1999 in the port city of Kandla. The ship carried hundreds of missile components, machine tools, and detailed blueprints for variants of the Scud-B and Scud-C missiles.

One former U.S. official called it a "full production kit for missiles."

In January 2000, 32 crates of missile parts disguised as automotive spare parts were discovered at London's Gatwick Airport on a British Airways flight bound for Tripoli via Malta. Paperwork seized with the equipment indicated other consignments had already reached Libya through Britain.

The Bush administration has embarked on an ambitious strategy to curtail the spread of weapons of mass destruction, as well as the technology and equipment needed to produce them.

A key element of that strategy is identifying producers and traders, and interrupting their trade.

U.S. officials who have briefed reporters since Friday's announcement noted North Korea's connection to Libya's missile program, but have declined to name companies or other countries that helped Gaddafi. They indicated that they know more than they are telling: On the issue of the centrifuges, believed to be well beyond Libyan manufacturing capability, a senior official said, "I don't want to get into that."

Staff writer Joby Warrick contributed to this report.

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2003-12-21 01:10pm

Also, a couple of years ago, during the Clinton Administration, I think, I saw
something on the news, with satellite photos showing a top secret Libyian
weapons plant being dug out of the side of a mountain...

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2003-12-21 01:16pm

Checking globalsecurity.org to find that factory, and finding some fun tidbits:

Jarmah
In 1980 the West German firm, Orbital Transport-und-Raketen Aktiengesellschaft (OTRAG) built a rocket-testing base in the Libyan desert.

************************************

As early as April 1980, the BND [Bundesnachrichten Dienst, the West German equivalent of the CIA], reported that Libya was developing a plant for the manufacture of chemical warfare agents with the help of West German experts, as well as a system for using them. As early as July 1984 the West German Embassy at Moscow, reporting from `non-Eastern sources' identified Imhausen Chemie as working with Libya, and detected its plans to ship chemical weapons equipment to Libya using Hong Kong as a cover. In early 1986 the German BND reported that the plant for the manufacture of mustard gas in Libya had been constructed under the management of a member of a German company.

The government of West Germany acknowledged that on August 3, 1987, its foreign intelligence service, the Bundesnachrichten Dienst, using SPOT satellite pictures, confirmed that the new industrial plant near Rabta, Libya, was most likely for the production of chemical warfare agents. [SOURCE] Supplies from German companies for the construction of a poison gas production plant in Rabta were provided by the firms are IBI [Ihsa Barbouti International], Pen Tsao and Imhausen. One German firm had been supplying precursors as early as 1985. The State-owned firm of Salzgitter AG had supplied a plan of the plant and Imhausen Chemie had supplied components and chemicals.

...

US government revelations concerning West German complicity in the construction of the Rabta chemical plant initially strained US-German relations. West Germany, after thorough investigation, admitted that substantial aid came from West German industry. Wolfgang Schauble, Minister of State in the West German's Chancellor's Office admitted on 26 February 1989 that ".... the factory was not only suitable (for the production of chemical weapons) but was intended from the very start to make nothing but."

************

LOL, our friends in Old Europe were only more than happy to arm these
guys with chemical weapons as long as they got paid....

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2003-12-21 01:17pm

MKSheppard wrote:Also, a couple of years ago, during the Clinton Administration, I think, I saw
something on the news, with satellite photos showing a top secret Libyian
weapons plant being dug out of the side of a mountain...

Found it

Pic

Tarhuna Page on GS ORg

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-12-21 03:11pm

Lord Poe wrote:Wow...how can an armpit of a country like Libya have a WMD program, yet Iraq "didn't".....?

Libya is hardly one of the world's armpits, and is better off then Iraq has been in the last twenty years. It was however an armpit before they struck oil in the 60's, the economy was based around selling scrap metal collected up from old WW2 battlefield, carpets, and money coming out of the USAF base.

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2003-12-21 03:37pm

TheDarkling wrote:One reason in four and when viewed in light of his actions over the last few years together with the fact that he must be rather far down the list of nations the US needs to deal with, I think it becomes rather clear that the impetus behind this is simply to re-enter the international mainstream, making sure the US isn't likely to bomb you is a good thing but I doubt it is the main reason Qaddafi is doing this (or has done anything in the past).

It is one of a number of reasons, but to my knowledge this is the first time he's ever been willing to dismantle his WMD programs to do it. That is a major step in and of it self and not the half ass measures he was willing to take before. The fact that Lybia has done most of the things we accussed Iraq of has got to play heavily on his thoughts and help convince him to behave before he gets bombed by the US... again.

Post by **Vympel** » 2003-12-22 12:21am

Lord Poe wrote:Wow...how can an armpit of a country like Libya have a WMD program, yet Iraq "didn't".....?

For one thing Libya wasn't under comprehensive sanctions or weapons inspections and didn't suffer a humiliating defeat a decade ago from which it never recovered.

tharkûn · Post by **tharkûn** » 2003-12-22 07:29pm

Somehow I have to imagine that our friend Qaddafi looked at Iraq and saw that the US was willing to invade him Saddam on weak evidence ... and what would they do if they had strong evidence against Libya. Even if it was blood for oil, Libya still isn't out of the crosshairs.

Maybe it isn't the primary cause (though the timing is just a bit coincidental), but I highly doubt the thought failed to cross his mind in a significant manner.