China vs. Japan

[The Cleric]

If you take away the resource advantage that China enjoys, it's a slaughter. Japan crushes.

[Sea Skimmer]

Neither side can invade the other; neither side can even mount much of an effective bombing campaign against the other. The result is Japan ends mounting a distant blockade of Chinese waters and perhaps can claim a victory since they'd inflict a lot of economic damage that way. Though Japan may have a great deal of difficulty keeping Chinas southern ports closed.

They don't need to be well-trained pilots, just able to do the job. If they outnumber Japan more than 3 to 1, attrition will take over.

Look moron, the PLAAF already has about a four or five to one advantage in planes. And guess what? It doesn't fucking matter because the vast majority are totally obsolete fodder that would be hard pressed to reach Japan, let alone fight a battle at the end of that trip.

I concede that there's no way for China to land more than a few thousand troops in Japan, where they'd be promptly wiped out,

No theres really no way for the PRC to land more then a few dozen troops in China. There two or three mjaor gator vessels are just plain fodder, commandos coming in by sub are the limit.

and maintain that it would be a Battle of Britain type scenario with the Japanese being slowly ground down by China.

Not going to happen. Do you think the British would have had trouble in the Battle of Britain if the Germans had no bombers, and 90% of there fighters dated to WW1?

There would be no successful land invasion on either side, and the war would last a few years until both sides decieded it wasn't worth it any more.

More likely it would take a few months, tops. Both nations are major trading powers, which would suffer massively in any war, much to the benefit of the more southern East Asian nations.

[Kamakazie Sith]

OP states they have a year to prepare. That's a more than adequate timeframe to build up an airforce, especially considering the available indutrial capacity.

Even if they could build up an air force, it would be built up of obsolete planes. It would be a disaster, in order to have an effect they would have to send their ENTIRE air force against Japan and it would only turn into a slaughter....chinese planes would be dropping out of sky by the dozens.

[The Aliens]

Debate Conceeded. Wasn't aware the technological disparity was as great as it is said to be. I just looked at some numbers, and Japan's Navy and Air Force are superior to China's in age and ability. The only thing that China has an advantage in in manpower, which makes effectively no difference as they won't be able to land the troops in the first place.

[Sarevok]

China is a highly centralised communist country. A well planned air campaign could cripple them.

[The_Nice_Guy]

I dunno. What's all this about the quality of planes and pilots? I'd say it's all about the quality of missiles(killing power) they can dump out. It doesn't even matter if the chinese throw out WW2 planes by the dozens if they manage to arm every one of the planes with advanced missiles. Missiles are cheaper than fighters, after all.

"Fly in the general direction of the enemy and shoot when our radar operators tell you to. The missiles will do the rest. By the way, you're expendable. Just make sure you fire the 6 missiles you have before you die."

Result: Japan's advanced air force and China's totally cheapass 10 to 1 air force annihilate each other in an orgy of mutual destruction. But China still has scores of cheap WW2 knockoffs coming up, whle Japan is struggling to produce more high tech F-16s... Guess who air superiority is gonna belong to?

Something has to to give. And sooner or later somebody's advantage is going to wear thin, and it's not going to be China's. Japan can do the same, of course, but who can sustain such a campaign better?

Hmmm... I see visions of anime-style missile frenzies in such a conflict. Yummy!

The Wobbly Guy

[PeZook]

I dunno. What's all this about the quality of planes and pilots? I'd say it's all about the quality of missiles(killing power) they can dump out. It doesn't even matter if the chinese throw out WW2 planes by the dozens if they manage to arm every one of the planes with advanced missiles. Missiles are cheaper than fighters, after all.

Yeah, and Japanese F-16s will be able to attack from wherever they want to, because they will be enjoying an INSANE speed advantage over Chinese WW2 planes, Jap pilots will be able to coordinate their moves better, and after firing off their medium-range missiles they'd be able to close in rapidly and kill off scores of WW2 planes WITH THEIR GUNS with the Chinese unable to offer any sort of resistance.

War is 1/4 about combat, 3/4 about logistics and getting your soldiers to the right place at the right time. The Janapese can already direct their aircraft better, their planes will always have more fuel, extending their engagement time, and if you widen the technological gap with your insane idea about WW2 aircraft, this war will be horribly one-sided.

Fly in the general direction of the enemy and shoot when our radar operators tell you to. The missiles will do the rest. By the way, you're expendable. Just make sure you fire the 6 missiles you have before you die."

Too bad Japan has the advantage of AWACS air control, which allows them to play this war like an RTS game, with total control of every unit.

At the same time, your WW2 planes will have trouble even REACHING Japan, and locating the enemy will be much harder for them than for the Jap F-16 pilots (who get told precisely where to go). Not to mention an F-16 has some chance to avoid a missile, while a WW2 knockoff is dead the moment it gets fired upon - with 100% efficiency for Jap Amraams, and the ability to get to the best position to fire them (eg. behind the enemy, or on their flank) any attack by chinese propeller planes gets SLAUGHTERED. They're better off using what they have now.

Result: Japan's advanced air force and China's totally cheapass 10 to 1 air force annihilate each other in an orgy of mutual destruction. But China still has scores of cheap WW2 knockoffs coming up, whle Japan is struggling to produce more high tech F-16s... Guess who air superiority is gonna belong to?

Japan. WW2 knockoffs can be easily intercepted by the Japanese NAVY for god's sake!

EDIT: Removed the unfortunate derogatory name for the Chinese, with apologies to anyone who felt insulted by this.

[Crown]

*raises one eyebrow*

When China has the ability to invade Taiwan, then call me ...

[Beowulf]

Yeah, and Japanese F-16s will be able to attack from wherever they want to, because they will be enjoying an INSANE speed advantage over Chinese WW2 planes, Jap pilots will be able to coordinate their moves better, and after firing off their medium-range missiles they'd be able to close in rapidly and kill off scores of WW2 planes WITH THEIR GUNS with the Chinks unable to offer any sort of resistance.

Don't ever, EVER use the word "Chink" when referring to a someone.

[PeZook]

Yeah, and Japanese F-16s will be able to attack from wherever they want to, because they will be enjoying an INSANE speed advantage over Chinese WW2 planes, Jap pilots will be able to coordinate their moves better, and after firing off their medium-range missiles they'd be able to close in rapidly and kill off scores of WW2 planes WITH THEIR GUNS with the Chinks unable to offer any sort of resistance.

Don't ever, EVER use the word "Chink" when referring to a someone.

Umm...sorry, didn't mean to insult anyone.

English is not my primary language...even then, I'm sorry. It won't happen again...

[Luzifer's right hand]

*raises one eyebrow*

When China has the ability to invade Taiwan, then call me ...

I thought china has only the ability to destroy Taiwan with nuclear weapons, not the ability to invade it.
The military threat from China is partly offset by the United States' cooperation with Taipei, and by the military capacity of Taiwan itself, one of the world's big arms purchasers afaik.

[The_Nice_Guy]

Yeah, and Japanese F-16s will be able to attack from wherever they want to, because they will be enjoying an INSANE speed advantage over Chinese WW2 planes, Jap pilots will be able to coordinate their moves better, and after firing off their medium-range missiles they'd be able to close in rapidly and kill off scores of WW2 planes WITH THEIR GUNS with the Chinese unable to offer any sort of resistance.

War is 1/4 about combat, 3/4 about logistics and getting your soldiers to the right place at the right time. The Janapese can already direct their aircraft better, their planes will always have more fuel, extending their engagement time, and if you widen the technological gap with your insane idea about WW2 aircraft, this war will be horribly one-sided.

If they can see you, you can see them. China might be very lacking in AWACs ability, but it's forecast that they'll be able to field AWACs analogs in 10 years. With a year of intense preparation,

And having a huge aerial force right on the doorstep of Japan's cities will force the engagement(though it's quite a long flight ). Even some rudimentary AEW system might be enough for the low tech hordes to fire their missiles, which are most assuredly NOT low tech(not that much, at least).

Too bad Japan has the advantage of AWACS air control, which allows them to play this war like an RTS game, with total control of every unit.

Imagine playing an RTS game where the enemy outnumbers you by 10 to 1, and charging straight for your jugular. Total control is nice and all, and they'll get slaughtered like sheep, but that doesn't help much when you still lose your airfields and industral capacity, does it?

At the same time, your WW2 planes will have trouble even REACHING Japan, and locating the enemy will be much harder for them than for the Jap F-16 pilots (who get told precisely where to go). Not to mention an F-16 has some chance to avoid a missile, while a WW2 knockoff is dead the moment it gets fired upon - with 100% efficiency for Jap Amraams, and the ability to get to the best position to fire them (eg. behind the enemy, or on their flank) any attack by chinese propeller planes gets SLAUGHTERED. They're better off using what they have now.

Some chance? Ah, yes, but the odds do catch up. Sooner or later. Now, an F15 or F16 could carry quite a bucketload of missiles, but against so many enemies, some of the chinese planes will be pointed in the right(or wrong) direction.

I'm using WW2 era planes as an extreme example, but if you do think China should be using subsonic aircraft mounting advanced anti-fighter missile types(which I do doubt they have), be my guest.

Japan. WW2 knockoffs can be easily intercepted by the Japanese NAVY for god's sake!

Yup, but remember, interception is a two way street.

Now, the core issue becomes, does China even have medium range missiles comparable to the AMRAAM? They have the short range R-73, which is said to be pretty good, but their medium range capability is said to be only average(or even poor). Fighter wise, they're switching to the J-10, said to be their analog of the F-16. Troubling, perhaps? Give China another ten years, then we'll resurrect this thread!

As an interesting aside, Israel was about to export several AWACs to China in 2000, but the deal was called off.

The Wobbly Guy

[Sarevok]

Imagine playing an RTS game where the enemy outnumbers you by 10 to 1, and charging straight for your jugular. Total control is nice and all, and they'll get slaughtered like sheep, but that doesn't help much when you still lose your airfields and industral capacity, does it?

Imagine a battle between Roman Legionaries and USMC where the Romans outnumber the Americans by 10 to 1. Needless to say the Marines will win easily.

Technological superiority always wins the day in any modern war. The technology gap between Japan and China is so vast that quality not quantity will win the day.

[Sarevok]

Some chance? Ah, yes, but the odds do catch up. Sooner or later. Now, an F15 or F16 could carry quite a bucketload of missiles, but against so many enemies, some of the chinese planes will be pointed in the right(or wrong) direction.

With superior speed, agility, sensors etc the F-15 outclasses Chineese fighters in every way. Its not just missiles that determine victory in aerial combat. If that was true SAMs not fighters would have ruled the skies.

[The Aliens]

Japan. WW2 knockoffs can be easily intercepted by the Japanese NAVY for god's sake!

Yup, but remember, interception is a two way street.

Sorry to jump in on this on the opposite side so quickly, but there's no way the Chinese Navy is going to be able to intercept F-16s when being fired on by the Japanese. Japan's Navy kills China's Navy, Japanese fighter planes could reach China likely without taking any meaningful casualties.

[The_Nice_Guy]

Imagine a battle between Roman Legionaries and USMC where the Romans outnumber the Americans by 10 to 1. Needless to say the Marines will win easily.

Technological superiority always wins the day in any modern war. The technology gap between Japan and China is so vast that quality not quantity will win the day.

False analogy. The tech difference is too great in your example. A better analogy would be one where the opponent is armed with weapons from WW2 while the Marines are armed with all the cool toys of the 21st century.

Oh, and BTW, the Marines are still outnumbered 10 to 1.

With superior speed, agility, sensors etc the F-15 outclasses Chineese fighters in every way. Its not just missiles that determine victory in aerial combat. If that was true SAMs not fighters would have ruled the skies.

Unfortunately(or fortunately ) SAMs are dead slow... almost standing still, in fact. Still, few fighter pilots would like to go up against well deployed and technologically competant SAMs.

And one more thing: SAMs can't bomb targets.

Hmmm... anybody ever thought of a hybrid missile arty/SAM system? Reckon it might be a nifty weapon.

Sorry to jump in on this on the opposite side so quickly, but there's no way the Chinese Navy is going to be able to intercept F-16s when being fired on by the Japanese. Japan's Navy kills China's Navy, Japanese fighter planes could reach China likely without taking any meaningful casualties.

Which is why WW2 planes are a bad idea? Maybe subsonic(and substandard) planes the PLA have now will have a better chance.

BTW, Japan has several Aegis type warships, which tips the odds tremendously to Japan even in the event that China's air force attains aerial superiority.

Enjoy!

The Wobbly Guy

[PeZook]

If they can see you, you can see them. China might be very lacking in AWACs ability, but it's forecast that they'll be able to field AWACs analogs in 10 years. With a year of intense preparation

The "if they can see you, you can see them" rule only works for Mk.I Eyeball, not ground and ship-based radar networks augmented with AWACS vs. fighter mounted radars.

And how's China going to design, test and field AWACS aircraft, rewrite their doctrine, train AWACS crews and run the necessary excercises to integrate them into their air force, all in a single year?

And having a huge aerial force right on the doorstep of Japan's cities will force the engagement(though it's quite a long flight ). Even some rudimentary AEW system might be enough for the low tech hordes to fire their missiles, which are most assuredly NOT low tech(not that much, at least).

Well, my main problem was with the WW2 aircraft example, which was just silly

The other problem, though, is another one - CAN China develop advanced air-to-air missiles in one year, and equip it's entire airforce with the necessary systems to fire and guide them accurately? Also, remember that according to the OP, Japan will have time to prepare as well - and their forces are already optimized for defense of the home islands. Building more SAM sites and fighters would be simple enough.

Imagine playing an RTS game where the enemy outnumbers you by 10 to 1, and charging straight for your jugular. Total control is nice and all, and they'll get slaughtered like sheep, but that doesn't help much when you still lose your airfields and industral capacity, does it?

Unless, of course, the charging enemies are your extreme example WW2 prop planes, in which case the 10:1 advantage wouldn't matter - F-16s could drop such aircraft by the dozens.

Take note that Japanese Home Islands CAN take some damage. It's not like they're going to be annihilated by the first air attack (especially when fuel is taken into concern), and the Chinese will have to contend with the Japanese navy and their SAM network, while at the same time any engagement would be began by the Japanese. Low-tech low-maneuverability airplanes will have one hell of a time evading modern SAM missiles, even if they're actually something better than prop planes, and China won't have an UNLIMITED supply of aircraft to throw about.

Some chance? Ah, yes, but the odds do catch up. Sooner or later. Now, an F15 or F16 could carry quite a bucketload of missiles, but against so many enemies, some of the chinese planes will be pointed in the right(or wrong) direction.

With your suggested pilots put into cockpits right after basic training, the Chinese fighters that are pointed in the right direction probably won't inflict as many casualties as they should. Drill and training DOES matter, since even the most hi-tech missiles need to be launched under certain conditions to achieve optimum efficiency. Hence, when a Chinese pilot is told to "fire off your missiles before you die", he won't bother with lining up his shots properly, and many missiles will go wide. The Japenese, on the other hand, will be well-coordinated and properly drilled - not to mention they're probably gonna enjoy the benefit of AWACS control, so they'll have control of the engagement and the initiative. All they need to do is break the Chinese formation, and the poorly trained Chinese pilots will be cannon fodder.

I'm using WW2 era planes as an extreme example, but if you do think China should be using subsonic aircraft mounting advanced anti-fighter missile types(which I do doubt they have), be my guest.

Umm...no, I actually think the Chinese should use the best they have, I was poinitng at the stupidity of actually USING WW2 prop planes against a modern air force, even after mounting missiles on them

Now, the core issue becomes, does China even have medium range missiles comparable to the AMRAAM? They have the short range R-73, which is said to be pretty good, but their medium range capability is said to be only average(or even poor).

Well, the other question is what missiles precisely are the JAPANESE using? Early AMRAAMs weren't that good, and Soviet medium-range missiles outclassed them. But the newest models are quite deadly.

Fighter wise, they're switching to the J-10, said to be their analog of the F-16. Troubling, perhaps? Give China another ten years, then we'll resurrect this thread!

Unless the Japanese modernize their forces as well, of course

As an interesting aside, Israel was about to export several AWACs to China in 2000, but the deal was called off.

Well, the OP did specify no military aid from foreign countries, right?

...though it DOES make the entire excercise pointless

[PeZook]

False analogy. The tech difference is too great in your example. A better analogy would be one where the opponent is armed with weapons from WW2 while the Marines are armed with all the cool toys of the 21st century.

Oh, and BTW, the Marines are still outnumbered 10 to 1.

Well, the Marines have the advantage in mobility (helicopters & LAVs), C&C, intelligence and recon (night vision goggles, scout helicopters, Predator aircraft, SIGINT & ELINT equipment), weapons range (all the modern artillery, assault rifles, grenade launchers), training & doctrine (they already FOUGHT WW2 and took all the necessary lessons from it )...

So, they know where the enemy is, they know where he moving to, they can put their people wherever they want to without the enemy being able to stop them, they can hit his command centers with helicopters and artillery after locating them from radio transmissions, they can LISTEN to those radio transmissions, since they're not scrambled...in other words, the Marines will ALWAYS have the initiative, and so - the numerical advantage won't matter, since they can hit where they want to and where it hurts the most. The WW2 force gets crushed.

See: Iraq.

Of course, this is a false analogy as well, since ground combat is different from air battles

[The_Nice_Guy]

Building more SAM sites

That brings us to a very interesting point. If both countries use that one year to build up their SAM sites to the point where even a dove(haha) might have difficulty flying through, what's the whole point of the exercise?

It's a push!

The Wobbly Guy

[The_Nice_Guy]

Of course, this is a false analogy as well, since ground combat is different from air battles

Exactly. Although a large force moving to contest an important point often forces an engagement...

It all depends on who's defending and who's attacking. Attacking a large force with a smaller but more mobile and armed force is often a better bet than defending something with such a force against a much more numerically superior foe. Mobility issues become moot, and sheer attrition and firepower takes over.

The Wobbly Guy

[PeZook]

Building more SAM sites

That brings us to a very interesting point. If both countries use that one year to build up their SAM sites to the point where even a dove(haha) might have difficulty flying through, what's the whole point of the exercise?

It's a push!

The Wobbly Guy

This would actually be the simplest solution for Japan, since it's cheaper than trying to rapidly increase the numbers of your aircraft, and they have a pretty small airspace to cover.

The excercie was pointless from the beginning, since neither side can invade the other. And it became really irrelevant at the time where international community was cut off fromt he conflict, as both countries rely too heavily on foreign relations for their influence to erase this factor from a war.

[PeZook]

It all depends on who's defending and who's attacking. Attacking a large force with a smaller but more mobile and armed force is often a better bet than defending something with such a force against a much more numerically superior foe. Mobility issues become moot, and sheer attrition and firepower takes over.
The Wobbly Guy

Hence why you need to intercept the enemy BEFORE he can force an engagement on his terms. A good, modern radar network and AWACS makes it easier for the Japanese to detect an attacking force and counterattack.

And the fact that most Chinese aircraft would need to conserve fuel so that they could make it back helps a lot during an engagement.

Just force the ground attack planes to expend fuel and you've prevented the attack.

P.S.

Oh, and another thing. For your idea to work, the Chinese would have to attack with an overwhelming number od low-tech aircraft. Unfortunately, they don't have all that many air bases in range of Japan, and those they have would be unable to house such an excessive number of aircraft and personell.

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

Building more SAM sites

That brings us to a very interesting point. If both countries use that one year to build up their SAM sites to the point where even a dove(haha) might have difficulty flying through, what's the whole point of the exercise?

It's a push!

The Wobbly Guy

Because SAMs don't rule the skies, especially the amount either side could build in only a year. They're vulnerable to stand off ARMs.