Saddam Hussein's capture three weeks ago hasn't slowed the anti-American insurgency in Iraq, which now seems more entrenched than ever, according to a review of recent attacks and interviews with U.S. and Iraqi officials.
Oh well, I'm not surprised, but judging from a lot of the hosannahs that appeared all over the media (*cough*FNC*cough*) I'm sure some would be.
Now that we've got a bit of perspective on Saddam's capture
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Now that we've got a bit of perspective on Saddam's capture
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Darth Raptor
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Wicked Pilot
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Considering how stupid Saddam is when it comes to all things military, this does not suprise me. Given his previous piss poor military record, is there anyone here who actually though he could run an organized resistance? If he actually was by some chance, his capture is probably allowing it to run more effeciently and effectively now that he's not around to fuck it up.
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MKSheppard
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Yeah, and the murder rate in baghdad is 6 per 100,000 population, NYC is 7, and Washington DC is 49
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"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
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MKSheppard
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STRATEGY PAGE: IRAQ: The Importance of Being Solid With The Sheikhs
January 3, 2004: For the fifth time since May, an American helicopter was brought down by enemy fire. A U.S. Army OH-58 two seat scout helicopter was brought down over a Sunni area by a shoulder fired missile. One of the two men on board were killed. While soldiers were guarding the site, to cars full of men dressed as journalists (wearing jackets with "PRESS" printed on them) drove up and fired on the troops. One car was later found and the occupants arrested. But Reuters says some of it's Iraqi employees were arrested in error.
Iraqi journalists have a long tradition of working for the highest bidder and doing what they are told. Worked for Saddam, and before him as well. The Baath party may well be paying Iraqi journalists working for Western media in order to perform additional services. This sort of thing is no longer a secret because the American informer network is now revealing all sorts of interesting stuff. For example, months of rumors indicated that many mosques were used as bases for attacks on American troops. But now precise information is available and raids on mosques are being made. Weapons, explosives and documents are being found and mosque employees arrested. Local Iraqis then stage demonstrations to protest American defilement of the mosque.
But operations like this have played a major role in reducing the American casualty rate. In November, 83 U.S. troops were killed, while only 38 died in December. Even before Saddam was captured, the American casualty rate was coming down. A major factor in that was the establishment in, in early December, of a council of tribal leaders (sheikhs). American Special Forces officers had worked on this for months, compiling a list of the 150 tribes and over 2,000 clans in Iraq and who was related to who. Some of the sheikhs were more legitimate, and influential, than others. This is because some had been installed by Saddam, while others had been bought off by Saddam.
But most sheikhs played along with the government and still managed to look after their kinsmen. Saddam's police and courts were seen as hopelessly corrupt and the sheikhs were perceived as a more just and legitimate source of justice. By working closely with the sheikhs, and handing out money and jobs to those who are most cooperative, more information about criminal gangs and anti-coalition activities has been provided.
January 2, 2004: With over a hundred thousand Iraqis armed and performing security duties, the crime rate had rapidly come down, and most American troops are now concentrating on operations against terrorist and pro-Saddam Iraqis who are still fighting. A data collection system for crimes has also been installed, and it showed that Baghdad's murder rate in October was lower than New York City's (which has the lowest rate of any major city in the United States). Baghdad had six murders per 100,000 population, while New York had seven. This, however, does not count the deaths from American military operations, or terrorist acts, which would increase the Baghdad "murder rate" by at least fifty percent.
That would still put it below many large American cities. The murders per 100,000 are 17 in Los Angeles, 19 in Philadelphia, 22 in Chicago and 46 in Washington, D.C. American journalists have no problem getting English speaking Baghdad residents to complain bitterly about "high crime rates." This is because many of the victims are Sunni Arabs who grew rich working for Saddam. These people still occupy nice homes in fancy neighborhoods. The criminals go where the money is, obtaining an additional satisfaction in sticking it to someone who worked for Saddam.
Some 65 kilometers north of Baghdad, a thousand U.S. troops and about 400 Iraqi police conducted a series of raids to round up rebels. American troops captured nine of the eleven rebel leaders being sought while Iraqi police picked up at least 16 men who had participated in attacks on Americans and Iraqis. Several weapons caches were also seized. These operations leave the Iraqis somewhat in awe of American military prowess. That's because U.S. troops prefer to operate at night, where convoys of armored vehicles and trucks can move rapidly down roads with no lights on. The troops use their night vision goggles to see the road, but to any Iraqis, it's just these dark shapes hurtling through the night. Even scarier is the precision with which the troops appear to operate. The vehicles surround a village or large compound and dozens of American troops dismount, each one quickly going about a specific task. No shouting (many troops use personal radios or hand signals), and no milling around. And no lights. If the people the troops are looking for try to escape out a back door, American troops swiftly cut them off and arrest them, or shoot them if there is resistance. It seems like magic to Iraqis who witness this. But it's technology and training more than magic. The troops practice their raiding drills beforehand, and are briefed on the "game plan" before each operation. The commanders back at the base have access to live video from a UAV overhead (which is displayed on large, flat screen TV monitors), and Blue Force Tracker shows all commanders the position of all vehicles and helicopters at all times. Sometimes the Special Forces has the target under observation before the troops show up, as does a UAV overhead. There are also electronic intelligence troops listening in on any cell phone (or other radio) signals coming from the target location. Detective work tries to find out exactly who is in the buildings to be raided, and who is in charge. Interpreters or Arabic speaking G.I.s will then call for the senior Iraqi to let them know why the troops are there and to avoid any resistance. This is shock and awe.
Story telling is an old tradition in Iraq, and the stories of these raids get embellished. While Iraqis like to emphasize how these American barbarians searched women for weapons (leaving out that usually only a metal detector is used), the "magical" manner in which the troops come out of the darkness and grab exactly who, or what, they want, never fails to impress. It sounds like a fairy tale, but it's real.
On a more practical level, U.S. troops are getting lots of training with the new electronic gear that has just been introduced during the last few years. The 4th Infantry division is actually the "test division" for a lot of this stuff and what this unit is doing in Iraq is something of a large scale field test, with real ammo. The troops have rapidly come up with new ways to use the equipment to protect themselves (by spotting ambushes and roadside bombs) and, of course, carrying out raids quickly and with few, if any, injuries to either side. This kind of "shock and awe" works. Iraqis tend to freeze during these rapid raids, and just let the Americans get it over with and leave.
January 3, 2004: For the fifth time since May, an American helicopter was brought down by enemy fire. A U.S. Army OH-58 two seat scout helicopter was brought down over a Sunni area by a shoulder fired missile. One of the two men on board were killed. While soldiers were guarding the site, to cars full of men dressed as journalists (wearing jackets with "PRESS" printed on them) drove up and fired on the troops. One car was later found and the occupants arrested. But Reuters says some of it's Iraqi employees were arrested in error.
Iraqi journalists have a long tradition of working for the highest bidder and doing what they are told. Worked for Saddam, and before him as well. The Baath party may well be paying Iraqi journalists working for Western media in order to perform additional services. This sort of thing is no longer a secret because the American informer network is now revealing all sorts of interesting stuff. For example, months of rumors indicated that many mosques were used as bases for attacks on American troops. But now precise information is available and raids on mosques are being made. Weapons, explosives and documents are being found and mosque employees arrested. Local Iraqis then stage demonstrations to protest American defilement of the mosque.
But operations like this have played a major role in reducing the American casualty rate. In November, 83 U.S. troops were killed, while only 38 died in December. Even before Saddam was captured, the American casualty rate was coming down. A major factor in that was the establishment in, in early December, of a council of tribal leaders (sheikhs). American Special Forces officers had worked on this for months, compiling a list of the 150 tribes and over 2,000 clans in Iraq and who was related to who. Some of the sheikhs were more legitimate, and influential, than others. This is because some had been installed by Saddam, while others had been bought off by Saddam.
But most sheikhs played along with the government and still managed to look after their kinsmen. Saddam's police and courts were seen as hopelessly corrupt and the sheikhs were perceived as a more just and legitimate source of justice. By working closely with the sheikhs, and handing out money and jobs to those who are most cooperative, more information about criminal gangs and anti-coalition activities has been provided.
January 2, 2004: With over a hundred thousand Iraqis armed and performing security duties, the crime rate had rapidly come down, and most American troops are now concentrating on operations against terrorist and pro-Saddam Iraqis who are still fighting. A data collection system for crimes has also been installed, and it showed that Baghdad's murder rate in October was lower than New York City's (which has the lowest rate of any major city in the United States). Baghdad had six murders per 100,000 population, while New York had seven. This, however, does not count the deaths from American military operations, or terrorist acts, which would increase the Baghdad "murder rate" by at least fifty percent.
That would still put it below many large American cities. The murders per 100,000 are 17 in Los Angeles, 19 in Philadelphia, 22 in Chicago and 46 in Washington, D.C. American journalists have no problem getting English speaking Baghdad residents to complain bitterly about "high crime rates." This is because many of the victims are Sunni Arabs who grew rich working for Saddam. These people still occupy nice homes in fancy neighborhoods. The criminals go where the money is, obtaining an additional satisfaction in sticking it to someone who worked for Saddam.
Some 65 kilometers north of Baghdad, a thousand U.S. troops and about 400 Iraqi police conducted a series of raids to round up rebels. American troops captured nine of the eleven rebel leaders being sought while Iraqi police picked up at least 16 men who had participated in attacks on Americans and Iraqis. Several weapons caches were also seized. These operations leave the Iraqis somewhat in awe of American military prowess. That's because U.S. troops prefer to operate at night, where convoys of armored vehicles and trucks can move rapidly down roads with no lights on. The troops use their night vision goggles to see the road, but to any Iraqis, it's just these dark shapes hurtling through the night. Even scarier is the precision with which the troops appear to operate. The vehicles surround a village or large compound and dozens of American troops dismount, each one quickly going about a specific task. No shouting (many troops use personal radios or hand signals), and no milling around. And no lights. If the people the troops are looking for try to escape out a back door, American troops swiftly cut them off and arrest them, or shoot them if there is resistance. It seems like magic to Iraqis who witness this. But it's technology and training more than magic. The troops practice their raiding drills beforehand, and are briefed on the "game plan" before each operation. The commanders back at the base have access to live video from a UAV overhead (which is displayed on large, flat screen TV monitors), and Blue Force Tracker shows all commanders the position of all vehicles and helicopters at all times. Sometimes the Special Forces has the target under observation before the troops show up, as does a UAV overhead. There are also electronic intelligence troops listening in on any cell phone (or other radio) signals coming from the target location. Detective work tries to find out exactly who is in the buildings to be raided, and who is in charge. Interpreters or Arabic speaking G.I.s will then call for the senior Iraqi to let them know why the troops are there and to avoid any resistance. This is shock and awe.
Story telling is an old tradition in Iraq, and the stories of these raids get embellished. While Iraqis like to emphasize how these American barbarians searched women for weapons (leaving out that usually only a metal detector is used), the "magical" manner in which the troops come out of the darkness and grab exactly who, or what, they want, never fails to impress. It sounds like a fairy tale, but it's real.
On a more practical level, U.S. troops are getting lots of training with the new electronic gear that has just been introduced during the last few years. The 4th Infantry division is actually the "test division" for a lot of this stuff and what this unit is doing in Iraq is something of a large scale field test, with real ammo. The troops have rapidly come up with new ways to use the equipment to protect themselves (by spotting ambushes and roadside bombs) and, of course, carrying out raids quickly and with few, if any, injuries to either side. This kind of "shock and awe" works. Iraqis tend to freeze during these rapid raids, and just let the Americans get it over with and leave.
"If scientists and inventors who develop disease cures and useful technologies don't get lifetime royalties, I'd like to know what fucking rationale you have for some guy getting lifetime royalties for writing an episode of Full House." - Mike Wong
"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
"The present air situation in the Pacific is entirely the result of fighting a fifth rate air power." - U.S. Navy Memo - 24 July 1944
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Gil Hamilton
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No matter what the US does, no matter how justified, people are going to dig in. I just saw the news a few days ago, after US forces raided a mosque which just so happened to be storing a treasure trove of weapons and ammo, and then arrested several people who were storing them, including the mosques imam. Afterward, thousands of Sunni muslims started protesting the imams arrest while the US checks him out and one of them said that "every Sunni would be a missile" if the imam wasn't released immediately. THe US just can't win.
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SirNitram
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Depressing, if only because it's so predictable. The more news comes out, the more I'm starting to see parallels to the situation between England and Ireland. I'm hoping someone in Bush's administration grows a functioning brain for the subject, or they get a new bunch in come 2004.
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Darth Wong
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If every Sunni became a missile on that day, then I'd say the missiles were defective.Gil Hamilton wrote:No matter what the US does, no matter how justified, people are going to dig in. I just saw the news a few days ago, after US forces raided a mosque which just so happened to be storing a treasure trove of weapons and ammo, and then arrested several people who were storing them, including the mosques imam. Afterward, thousands of Sunni muslims started protesting the imams arrest while the US checks him out and one of them said that "every Sunni would be a missile" if the imam wasn't released immediately. THe US just can't win.
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Illuminatus Primus
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What would you do?SirNitram wrote:Depressing, if only because it's so predictable. The more news comes out, the more I'm starting to see parallels to the situation between England and Ireland. I'm hoping someone in Bush's administration grows a functioning brain for the subject, or they get a new bunch in come 2004.
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Sarevok
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Wrong. The Iraqis are fighting to liberate their country from the American invaders. They have nothing to do with Saddam or Islamic fundermentalists.Lazy Raptor wrote:Very few of them are Ba'athist bitches. The vast majority of the rebels want to kick us out so they can establish an Islamic theocracy.
I have to tell you something everything I wrote above is a lie.
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The_Nice_Guy
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Some of the Iraqis, at least. If it was the whole damn lot, the US would have no chance.
But should the demands of the 5-10% of anti-US Iraqis overrule the desires of the Iraqis(no known percentage) that do want the US to stick around?
Once the US leaves, I can near guarantee you a civil war in Iraq.
The Wobbly Guy
But should the demands of the 5-10% of anti-US Iraqis overrule the desires of the Iraqis(no known percentage) that do want the US to stick around?
Once the US leaves, I can near guarantee you a civil war in Iraq.
The Wobbly Guy
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