"Future Effect"

[Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi]

I just noticed someting. Actually, I was noticing it for years, and only now decided to say it.

Did you even notice that how in the 50's, people were predicting that in the 80's, we'd have hovercars, and home fusion generators, and Flash Gordon rockets? And that in the 1980's, we didn't have any of it? And now, they're saying we sohuld have it in 30 years? It's like a "future effect". People predict it, but then, the time comes, and it hasn't happened.

It also seems to be among JW's. Just how many dates have they predicted the world would end on?

It also seems to happen at a personal level, in a way. You set a date to accomplish something, but sometimes, you don't get it completed by then.

[Wicked Pilot]

1914 and 1975 are two of them. There may have been more.


By the way, how would you describe someone who is both a JW and a Hell's Angel?

[Mr Bean]

Sixteen to be exact is the number of times JWs have predicted the end of the world

[Raoul Duke, Jr.]

1914 and 1975 are two of them. There may have been more.


By the way, how would you describe someone who is both a JW and a Hell's Angel?

A Hell's Witness?

[Raptor 597]

I just noticed someting. Actually, I was noticing it for years, and only now decided to say it.

Did you even notice that how in the 50's, people were predicting that in the 80's, we'd have hovercars, and home fusion generators, and Flash Gordon rockets? And that in the 1980's, we didn't have any of it? And now, they're saying we sohuld have it in 30 years? It's like a "future effect". People predict it, but then, the time comes, and it hasn't happened.

It also seems to be among JW's. Just how many dates have they predicted the world would end on?

It also seems to happen at a personal level, in a way. You set a date to accomplish something, but sometimes, you don't get it completed by then.

Yeah, the future efect truth is they didn't have no idea how we were going too get it, they had no idea of repulserlifts and we only that via sci-fi creations. They it was gonna be advancing as fast as the car, plane, splittinhg of atom, we would of been there if development speeds up, but it is currently a bit sluggish

[Patrick Degan]

I'm still a bit pissed off about all that. I mean, just where is my personal jet-pack and helicopter? And what about my condo on the Moon that I was supposed to be able to afford for only 10% down? And the underwater cities and the food pills and slidewalks and all that cool shit we were supposed to have when we grew up?

Hell, I remember when they were seriously talking about the Von Braun space stations and men on Mars by 1985.

[Colonel Olrik]

On the other hand, their computer prediction for this time were massive hunks of beeping lights with printed paper as only outputs..

And no sign of Xwing alliance or Internet capabilities.

I wouldn't change these for jetpacks.

[victorhadin]

The 'future effect' is not a matter of over-ambitious predictions, but of misplaced predictions. We don't have manned missions to Jupiter and flying cars because there is no point.

We do have a system of telecommunications undreamed of in the 60s, 70s, 80s and 'E-commerce' is now not merely a possibility, but a popular and widespread one.

Computers are advancing at a rate so furious none could have predicted it.

Our space exploitation has reached, not to distant planets, but to Earth's orbit, placing geostationary satellites in massive numbers over our planet for communication.



People expected a material revolution in tangible items and gadgets, but instead we got one in concepts, commerce and communications. It is no less impressive for all that; merely different.

[SWPIGWANG]

we don't know the difficulty within each area until we face it.....

[Wicked Pilot]

1914 and 1975 are two of them. There may have been more.


By the way, how would you describe someone who is both a JW and a Hell's Angel?

A Hell's Witness?

No. Someone who comes to your door and says "fuck off"

[Raoul Duke, Jr.]

1914 and 1975 are two of them. There may have been more.


By the way, how would you describe someone who is both a JW and a Hell's Angel?

A Hell's Witness?

No. Someone who comes to your door and says "fuck off"

Cool. "Your ass-whupping delivered in 30 minutes or less, or it's free!" Much better prank idea than pizza delivery...

[Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi]

Sometimes, not only is a prediction false because they've understimated the time required, but at times, the idea is just plain stupid, like "rocket mail", and 'nuclear-powered vaccum cleaners".

This effect also seems to be used by environmentalists. If you read some old science textbook, they say the rainforests will be gone by 2000. Fast-forward to 2000, where the Amazon rainforest is 90% intact, some older sources say the rainforests will be gone by 2008, while others say it won't happen for 30 years! When you have a bunch of students write about the rainforests, you have about 10 different dates thrown around.

[Raoul Duke, Jr.]

Sometimes, not only is a prediction false because they've understimated the time required, but at times, the idea is just plain stupid, like "rocket mail", and 'nuclear-powered vaccum cleaners".

This effect also seems to be used by environmentalists. If you read some old science textbook, they say the rainforests will be gone by 2000. Fast-forward to 2000, where the Amazon rainforest is 90% intact, some older sources say the rainforests will be gone by 2008, while others say it won't happen for 30 years! When you have a bunch of students write about the rainforests, you have about 10 different dates thrown around.

I've noticed this... every cause seems to have this need to engage in evangelist-style chicanery when it comes to throwing deadlines at people.

Incidentally, regarding the commercial (I forget what it was for) with the guy grousing about, "I was promised flying cars!"... Flying cars? Like drivers aren't dangerously stupid now?

[Knife]

I'm still a bit pissed off about all that. I mean, just where is my personal jet-pack and helicopter? And what about my condo on the Moon that I was supposed to be able to afford for only 10% down? And the underwater cities and the food pills and slidewalks and all that cool shit we were supposed to have when we grew up?

Hell, I remember when they were seriously talking about the Von Braun space stations and men on Mars by 1985.

The personal jet pack is possible, the James Bond one is still around and the owner flies it at various events around the country. As for the helicopter, I saw a thing on Discovery Wings were you can get a kit helo for about 60 grand. A gyrocopter is just a little less than that but not a real helo. Every thing else mmmm...(shrugs shoulders)

[Raoul Duke, Jr.]

I'm still a bit pissed off about all that. I mean, just where is my personal jet-pack and helicopter? And what about my condo on the Moon that I was supposed to be able to afford for only 10% down? And the underwater cities and the food pills and slidewalks and all that cool shit we were supposed to have when we grew up?

Hell, I remember when they were seriously talking about the Von Braun space stations and men on Mars by 1985.

The personal jet pack is possible, the James Bond one is still around and the owner flies it at various events around the country. As for the helicopter, I saw a thing on Discovery Wings were you can get a kit helo for about 60 grand. A gyrocopter is just a little less than that but not a real helo. Every thing else mmmm...(shrugs shoulders)

Well, if you want food pills, try GNC. Of course, they're not chewable and they'll probably make you sick and they have alphabet-soup names that not even the clerks can pronounce... as for slidewalks, they have lots of those at the airport. Jet-packs. Well... we're a way off from that yet. Stick to a motorcycle, more fun anyway.

[TrailerParkJawa]

You also have to remember that a lot of future predictions are made by marketing folks. Remember tv shows from the 70's and 80's ? A lot of them show a terribly polluted future where everything is industrial.

While we are getting very crowded, heavy industial pollution is more a thing of the past. At least here in the US.

I went to Epcot center in like 91 or 92. They had all these 50's and 60's style exhibits about the future. One showed us farming all the deserts of the American southwest.

I kept thinking, where is all this water going to come from ? And who wants to live where its 100+ a significant part of the year. Also, many of these assumtions were based on needing food. Since then we have lost farm land but are still producing more food than is needed.

[neoolong]

Raoul the commercial was for IBM starring Avery Brooks. Better known as Capt. Sisko. The exact line was "It is the year 2000, but where are the flying cars? I was promised flying cars! I don't see any flying cars. Why? Why? Why?"

Why? Because people can't even drive regular cars right and you expect them to drive mini airplanes? Hehe I kill me.

[Raoul Duke, Jr.]

Raoul the commercial was for IBM starring Avery Brooks. Better known as Capt. Sisko. The exact line was "It is the year 2000, but where are the flying cars? I was promised flying cars! I don't see any flying cars. Why? Why? Why?"

Why? Because people can't even drive regular cars right and you expect them to drive mini airplanes? Hehe I kill me.

Yeah, I thought that guy was familiar... from DS9 to hawking IBMs... is that a step up or a step down?

[kojikun]

Degan: Youre like, what, 200 years old?

Futurism: I think much of the problems with the future is a) the predictors dont have a fucking clue what theyre talking about (noone in the 50s actually ASKED the computer companies what theyre working on, etc) and b) people dont demand certain things en-masse enough to warrant their production.

Majorly obvious example of lack of foresight: Trek TOS bridge.
Why dont they have good display screens for all the workstations? I would think that with their budget they could buy a few TVs and make custom grahics. Also, those little computer interface screens are ridiculous. They should have thought "Hmm.. these could be bigger, and they would be much flatter because that would be convenient."

Example of too ambitious foresight: Flying cars.
Why did they predict them? What evidence was there AT ALL that we could produce anything remotely like antigravity and do so within the time specified (by 2000)? 50 years is almost no time at all. Blink of an eye. Those people were watching TV where it required giant nearly all fuel missiles to get into LEO, let alone to the moon. What made them think that in 50 years we could compact that down into something the size of an SUV? Some people probably say "but helicopters can do it!" yeah, helis also have a complicated flight mechanism and a giant quad-blade on the top. This is not a machine that can easilly be compacted. However, there was some research done back in the 50s and 60s and a manned hover platform WAS developed. I imagine that it could possibly be made into a car but theres still the question of piloting. and as others have said, FUCK NO.

[Raoul Duke, Jr.]

Majorly obvious example of lack of foresight: Trek TOS bridge.
Why dont they have good display screens for all the workstations? I would think that with their budget they could buy a few TVs and make custom grahics. Also, those little computer interface screens are ridiculous. They should have thought "Hmm.. these could be bigger, and they would be much flatter because that would be convenient."

Actually, considering that computers even then were the size of the average living room I think they did all right.

[TrailerParkJawa]

Yeah, I dont think the criticism of Star Trek TOS is fair. Remember back then most computer output was on paper and input was with punch cards. I think they did okay considering what they had. And yes, budget was a big issue. Those sets were terrible!

I think we all agree on the flying car concept. Thats more of a wet dream than anything else. I mean who would not want a Blade Runner police car as long as almost everyone else does NOT have one. But in reality a million or so people in the same area flying to work is pretty unworkable.

[kojikun]

No. I think they were FOOLISH to assume things wouldn't shrink by 2200. Computers may have been the size of rooms, but in in 10 years they shrunk to be about the size of modern computers (trek was made in '69, by 80 we had apples i think). They were sorely off.

[Raoul Duke, Jr.]

No. I think they were FOOLISH to assume things wouldn't shrink by 2200. Computers may have been the size of rooms, but in in 10 years they shrunk to be about the size of modern computers (trek was made in '69, by 80 we had apples i think). They were sorely off.

Well, of course they were off! No one's disputing that they got it wrong, but come on -- all SF is guilty on that score! The point is that given the information they had at the time, they couldn't have known that RL technology would beat most of their mundane predictions within decades.

[kojikun]

Sure they could have. They saw the developement of TV from little boxes to home sets with 30 inch screens in under 50 years, why wouldnt they assume equally fast developement when it comes to computers?

However, the thing i argued about was the lack of decent DISPLAY SCREENS on the bridge, not computers. They could have assumed it would be easy to make very thin TVs, thats why its scifi.

[TrailerParkJawa]

Sure they could have. They saw the developement of TV from little boxes to home sets with 30 inch screens in under 50 years, why wouldnt they assume equally fast developement when it comes to computers?

However, the thing i argued about was the lack of decent DISPLAY SCREENS on the bridge, not computers. They could have assumed it would be easy to make very thin TVs, thats why its scifi.

Early sets were not that small. Ever see one of the old sets?

Very few people in the 60's had a clue about computers. Not many people forsaw that they would become small desktop machines. In Trek they did focus on voice commands which we still really dont have yet.