Can anyone confirm the poll run on CNN?

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-01-10 04:40am

CNN recently ran a poll suggesting that more Americans now identify with the Republican Party than with the Democratic one. Does ANYONE know who ran this poll and where I can find it? My paper has been trying to confirm this story for almost two days, now, and we're about to give up on it and write it off as CNN sensationalism. Can anyone change our minds? PLEASE tell me where to confirm this story. Thank you.

Seggybop · Post by **Seggybop** » 2004-01-10 06:51am

CNN gets some of its poll information from here. From this page it says they had a poll where the result was 45.5% republican vs 45.2% democrat. Not a significant difference. I don't know if that's what they were using for what you saw on CNN but it's the closest I could find.

Gil Hamilton · Post by **Gil Hamilton** » 2004-01-10 02:08pm

That number may not be reliable. Those poll numbers aren't of the American public itself, but of a small cross-section of the American public, which is then extrapolated. More so, it could very well be a phone-in poll, which CNN does alot of, where people call in or do a poll online, CNN tallies the votes, and extrapolates (the latter is a particularly insidous way to make one side of the issue have more strength than it really does). What was the methodology used to create the poll and what cross section of the public is it? Also, where it was polled matters. For instance, a democrat/republican poll in Pennsylvania will very heavily matter how the poll was done. If they called up 200 people in each county and asked them if they favored the Democrats or the Republicans, the Republicans would be on top of the heap. At first glance this may seem fair, but it isn't. Most of Pennsylvania's 67 counties are rural and conservative, while the most populated counties, the ones that are filled with Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, are relatively few, but would vote Democrat in large numbers (enough so that Pennsylvania will almost certainly be a Democratic state in the upcoming election).

People say that numbers don't lie, but they can and do.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-01-10 02:48pm

Thanks for your help, guys. To be honest, I don't think we're going to run the story, anyway, simply because the source doesn't seem to be as reliable as we like to see, but it's nice to know where it's coming from. I think we poked and prodded that website, earlier, and couldn't find much, but thanks for the tips!

Incidentally, if future polls confirm this number, it actually would be a big deal since it would be the first time there are more Republicans than Democrats since the First World War, although honestly the source is somewhat questionable.

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2004-01-10 02:52pm

I read in a Mark Steyn column a few weeks ago that voter identification has shifted considerably in favor of the Republicans in many of the swing states. I've been trying to find a source, but haven't been able to.