Hypothetical Question : Oil and War

Trytostaydead · Post by **Trytostaydead** » 2004-01-10 10:29pm

Let's say that in 50 years (arbitrary number) when oil reserves all across the world go low enough to make prices significantly increase. The Arab nations it is estimated still have a few years worth left, but if a few years to supply only a few countries (or just one exclusively) with oil. We also have no alternative energy source readily available for the general public's use yet in the quantities demanded.

The question is not so much a matter of whether the US would go to war (Britain's records showed that they were ready to move during the OPEC embargo), but would the CITIZENS of the US protest much once things really started to hit their checkbook and accustomed way of life?

MKSheppard · Post by **MKSheppard** » 2004-01-10 10:47pm

Go play Fallout 2 to see what happens. We annex canada

Sarevok · Post by **Sarevok** » 2004-01-11 12:05am

Russia would start exporting oil from their massive oil reserves and quickly dominate the internation oil trade. That would keep oil prices down. Of course that asumes the Russians are willing to sale oil at a fair price.

Thirdfain · Post by **Thirdfain** » 2004-01-11 01:47am

there is potentially as much REFINED GASOLINE under Russia as there is crude oil under the Middle East. Prices go up for a while while the Russians get infrastructure into place to exploit it, and we get another 50 years.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2004-01-11 02:37am

Thirdfain wrote:there is potentially as much REFINED GASOLINE under Russia as there is crude oil under the Middle East. Prices go up for a while while the Russians get infrastructure into place to exploit it, and we get another 50 years.

And in the US four times as much oil is locked inside of shale deposites as is under Saudi Arabia, not to mention the worlds estimated 300-500 year supply of coal can be converted. However in the end it will all run out and then we have a major problume. Though I suppose we could get plenty of rubber and plastic out of old landfills.

Post by **Vympel** » 2004-01-11 02:49am

I'm a bit of a technological optimist- the oil will eventually run out (about 50 years sounds about right), but as the price increases incentives will be there to change to something else; eventually, the alternative will be cheaper than oil, and voila.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-01-11 04:20am

Vympel wrote:I'm a bit of a technological optimist- the oil will eventually run out (about 50 years sounds about right), but as the price increases incentives will be there to change to something else; eventually, the alternative will be cheaper than oil, and voila.

50 years doesn't sound accurate at all. Granted, it was a hypothetical number, but given most current projections (in which there is practically no conservation effort), Saudi Arabia alone has almost a century left of oil. With new fields in Kazhakstan and other nations being discovered, I don't really see much to be worried about in our lifetimes, anyway.

Sarevok · Post by **Sarevok** » 2004-01-11 04:33am

Well maybe we dont have to worry about running out of oil resources but eventualy they will run out someday. For the sake of future generations we have to think of a solution.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-01-11 04:35am

evilcat4000 wrote:Well maybe we dont have to worry about running out of oil resources but eventualy they will run out someday. For the sake of future generations we have to think of a solution.

True. I was merely responding to the statement that 50 years seemed accurate.

Chardok · Post by **Chardok** » 2004-01-11 10:47am

I feel that long before the oil runs out, fuel cell cars will be available in affordable numbers. Barring that, then perhaps methanol can be used. The U.S. has got TONS of extra corn, after all, we already process SOME (A very small bit of our capacity as I understand it.) of it into gas. I can't see that it would take much to emplace even more infrastructure to process more corn. That infrastructure emplaced, combined with the numbers of fuel cell cars sure to be on the road at that time=U.S. independence from foreign oil. Which will be, if I may be so bold, Hilarious. Why? Watching Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC countries fragile grip on uber-wealth collapse will make for good T.V. . Their pretty facade will collapse and we'll have Iran ver. 2.0 middle-east wide.

Oh, and we still Annex Canada.