Would the US go to war over this?

[Pablo Sanchez]

In this almost impossible hypothetical, the United States would certainly destroy the drilling complexes with airstrikes, and Mexico would have to swallow it. I think it would take under a week for the US to take this response. It's important to note that in modern diplomacy concepts like honor, comradeship, and truth mean absolutely nothing. There is only the nation-state and its needs. Whatever the US might have said about Iraq's invasion, it would have done the same thing--except that perhaps it wouldn't have annexed the state, because it's not their style. Installation of a right wing dictatorship beholden to the State Department and US industrial concerns would be the preferred option, as was the case in Latin America so many times.

[Sea Skimmer]

I don't see an attack necessary to stop this. The U.S. could probably put more than enough political and economic pressure on Mexico to make them cut it out.

Indeed, war would be unnecessary; a blockade of Mexican oil exports would utterly fuck them. Why the hell Wong thinks the US would even consider annexing part of Mexico, the few valuable parts are in the south anyway, I don't know.

Nope, Kuwait was doing exactly this to Iraq before the Gulf War.

Iraq accused Kuwait of doing so; I don't think it was ever proven one way or another. But then since the boarder was poorly defined it would b hard to tell. And in the end, when a UN team was sent to formally survey and mark the boarder in 1993, it placed a number of Iraqi oil wells as being inside of Kuwait...

[Wicked Pilot]

Why the hell Wong thinks the US would even consider annexing part of Mexico, the few valuable parts are in the south anyway, I don't know.

Heh, anything up North in the border area that is of any worth would be illegal under US law.

[jegs2]

Purely hypothetical scenario: suppose Mexico developed a technological "long-range horizontal drilling" method which allowed it to drain oil from the reserves located under Texas.

Let us further suppose that the US discovers that Texan oil is being stolen by Mexico, and demands that the Mexicans cease and desist immediately, and that the Mexicans ignore this demand repeatedly.

How long would it take for tanks to roll over the border? And would they stop at destroying the horizontal drilling equipment, or would they annex portions of Mexico?

I reckon that Mexico would soon become a US territory until we installed a puppet government friendly to US national interests.

[HemlockGrey]

I don't think the US would start issuing maps claiming Mexico as a wayward province, either.

If military action was necessary, I highly doubt any real Mexican land woul be annexed. There might be a few strips of desert taken in order to secure the border, but I hardly think the United States would annex, say, Mexico City. The backlash, both domestic and international, would be far too great and we wouldn't really gain anything.

[Stormbringer]

Frankly, we would need to roll tanks to force Mexico to stop. Diplomatic pressure would almost certainly be all required.

[Nova Andromeda]

Purely hypothetical scenario: suppose Mexico developed a technological "long-range horizontal drilling" method which allowed it to drain oil from the reserves located under Texas.

Let us further suppose that the US discovers that Texan oil is being stolen by Mexico, and demands that the Mexicans cease and desist immediately, and that the Mexicans ignore this demand repeatedly.

How long would it take for tanks to roll over the border? And would they stop at destroying the horizontal drilling equipment, or would they annex portions of Mexico?

--This seems rather feasible with current technology. I believe such equipment is being deployed in Alaska? I serverly doubt the U.S. would send troops and would instead opt for a diplomatic solution. Assuming they did go for a miliary option, the U.S. would most certainly not annex any large part of Mexico since it needs second and third world countries (such as Mexico) to feed off of. For instance, look at all the cheep labor we get from Mexico.

[Chardok]

I don't know why we would bother annexing Mexico. Their captial is a steaming cesspool of pollution and crime. it would cost more than it's worth just to get it up to "American" standards.

Then again....Tenochtitlan Proving grounds has a nice ring to it...

Cancun MOUT site.

The Alamos Wastes.....

[Rogue 9]

So the Mexicans are draining reserves from under Texas? Or what?

Meh, they probably would.. Countries go to war over things alot more stupid than actively stealing resources..

Nope, Kuwait was doing exactly this to Iraq before the Gulf War.

Were they? I know that was Iraq's given reason for invading Kuwait, but were they actually doing it? Its not like Iraq didn't have plenty of other motives (Kuwait is a valuable chunk of real estate) and a leader unstable enough to go in just because he wanted some oil-rich seafront.

[Col. Crackpot]

Simply deploying forces along the border and halting all border activity and banning all commerce and travel would destroy the Mexican economy in a matter of weeks.... if not days.

[Knife]

Simply deploying forces along the border and halting all border activity and banning all commerce and travel would destroy the Mexican economy in a matter of weeks.... if not days.

Or bombing the Mexican military on the southern boarder there by seriously increasing border activity and illegal commerce and travel by Central Americans would destroy the Mexican economy in a matter of weeks.

[Darth Yoshi]

Were they? I know that was Iraq's given reason for invading Kuwait, but were they actually doing it? Its not like Iraq didn't have plenty of other motives (Kuwait is a valuable chunk of real estate) and a leader unstable enough to go in just because he wanted some oil-rich seafront.

The Kuwaitis refused to forgive the multi-billion dollar Iraqi debt, and Saddam wanted to corner the a chunk of the world's oil supply to pay off the national debt.

[Rogue 9]

Yes, I know that. But it doesn't answer the question. Was Kuwait cross-drilling into Iraqi reserves?

[Stormbringer]

Yes, I know that. But it doesn't answer the question. Was Kuwait cross-drilling into Iraqi reserves?

As far as we know, they were drilling into reserves that they shared with Iraq. I'm not sure whether it was quite as nefarious as the way it's made it out be though.

[Rogue 9]

I didn't think so.

[Master of Ossus]

Incidentally, didn't Iraq claim that Kuwait had always been an Iraqi province, based on an old agreement between the European powers? I thought that was their cornerstone for the invasion of Kuwait.

[Vympel]

Incidentally, didn't Iraq claim that Kuwait had always been an Iraqi province, based on an old agreement between the European powers? I thought that was their cornerstone for the invasion of Kuwait.

Kuwait was an invention of the British just like Iraq- under the old Ottoman Empire, I think they were part of the same administrative region or some such- don't take my word for it though.

[Sea Skimmer]

Kuwait was an invention of the British just like Iraq- under the old Ottoman Empire, I think they were part of the same administrative region or some such- don't take my word for it though.

It was, and that was the basis of the Iraqi claim to the place, so the whole thing was about as valid as the Falklands. Something that’s often forgotten is that Iraq threatened to invade for similar reasons back in 1961, only backing down when several Royal Navy fleet and commando carriers (those where the days) showed up.

Yes, I know that. But it doesn't answer the question. Was Kuwait cross-drilling into Iraqi reserves?

I've done some digging and I've found nothing which suggests that was anything more then an Iraqi claim.

[tharkûn]

Kuwait was a British invention, however Iraq categorically renounced claims to Kuwait multiple times and recognized the borders between them existed.

But in any event for Mike's little scenario the most likely thing to happen is for the US to first use diplomatic pressure, make a few threats and then start bandying about words like "embargo", "border closure", and "tariffs". If any of these threats actually have to be carried out, Mexico has an idiot running the country, but any of them will be far more unpleasant than losing revenue from the oil.

If no non-military option exists most like the oil infrastructure on the mexican side would be shelled into oblivion and a buffer space along the border would most likely be established.

[revprez]

Why wouldn't the US use diplomatic and economic leverage first? And what's to gain from invading Mexico when a few well placed smart bombs can take out their control center while special forces sabotage their rigs? And who's to say after all that we won't offer to reimburse Mexico for the damage afterwards?

Hussein invaded a peaceful neighbor wholesale on a ridiculous pretext. Let's not confuse the issue.

Rev Prez