Kerry lights the polls on fire

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The Kernel
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Kerry lights the polls on fire

Post by The Kernel »

Check this out:

CNN
(CNN) -- A poll in Thursday's Boston Herald showed Sen. John Kerry, fueled by a win in the Iowa caucuses this week, taking a 10-point lead over former front-runner Howard Dean in New Hampshire ahead of the nation's first primary.

The Massachusetts senator leads the former Vermont governor 31 percent to 21 percent in a poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, following Monday's caucus victory.

Retired Gen. Wesley Clark was third in the poll with 16 percent, followed by Sen. John Edwards at 11 percent and a badly slumping Sen. Joe Lieberman with 4 percent.

In last week's pre-Iowa poll, Dean was the front-runner at 29 percent. Clark was No. 2 at 20 percent, with Kerry third at 15 percent.

A Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll, also published Thursday, showed identical numbers for the top five candidates.

The Boston Herald poll -- conducted by RKM Research and Communication of 501 likely Democratic primary voters -- was taken in the aftermath of Kerry's surprise win in Iowa. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The poll shows the changing fortunes of Kerry and Dean.

Kerry's surge to the top in New Hampshire is directly tied to his skyrocketing popularity, with 77 percent of voters viewing him favorably and only 18 percent seeing him unfavorably.

In the Herald's pre-Iowa poll, Kerry's ratings were 54 percent favorable and 27 percent unfavorable.

Meanwhile, Dean was losing favor in New Hampshire. His favorable rating dropped from 66 percent pre-Iowa to 56 percent this week, while his unfavorable rating escalated from 21 percent to 34 percent.

Dean, who has dominated polls and fund-raising since the summer, stumbled in Monday's Iowa caucuses, finishing a distant third to Kerry and North Carolina's Edwards.

Dean's fiery speech to supporters at a post-caucus rally Monday night also has sparked questions among some political observers and Democrats about his temperament.

Aides said Dean, surprised but undaunted by his weak showing in a state in which he'd devoted considerable resources, would refocus his campaign on his record in Vermont and away from the red-meat, anti-war rhetoric that fueled his insurgent rise last year.

Dean lost the endorsement of former U.S. Sen. John Durkin of New Hampshire, who told CNN he is now undecided as a result of Dean's speech.

"Iowa dramatically changed the picture here," said Durkin on Wednesday. "I wish I'd turned the TV off on election night and gone to bed early. I don't know who I'm going to vote for come Tuesday."

After their candidates' unexpected strength in Iowa, the Kerry and Edwards campaigns said they've seen fund-raising spikes. Kerry aides said the senator has collected more than $300,000 since Monday; Edwards has drawn about $250,000, aides said.

Earlier tracking polls, released Wednesday, indicated the Granite State is essentially a four-man race, between Kerry, Dean, Edwards and Clark of Arkansas. Clark skipped Iowa for an anticipated showdown with Dean in the New Hampshire primary.

Those polls suggest little movement for Edwards, whose support remains in single digits, a few percentage points ahead of Lieberman of Connecticut. But the surveys were based in large part on data gathered before the Iowa caucuses.

After Monday's caucuses, Clark added Kerry to his target list, according to campaign aides. Clark and Kerry, both decorated Vietnam War veterans, have sparred this week over who has a better military record.

"Well, he's got a military background, but nobody in the race has got the kind of background I've got," Clark said of Kerry this week. "I've negotiated peace agreements, I've made a major alliance in war.

"It's one thing to be a hero as a junior officer -- he's done that and I respect him for that. He's been a good senator, but I've had the military leadership at the top as well as at the bottom."

Polls indicate Lieberman so far has failed to make inroads in New Hampshire despite earning an endorsement Tuesday from the Manchester Union-Leader, the state's largest and most influential newspaper.

Various polls have Lieberman, who also bypassed Iowa, with support only in the single digits. Lieberman, whose strategy has focused mainly on the February 3 primaries in Southern states, said he would continue to run.

"I've said from the beginning that my goal here is to do better than expected, and I'm moving on from here, South and West," Lieberman said Wednesday.

A key opportunity for a jolt of new dynamics will come Thursday evening when all seven candidates meet in a final planned debate before Tuesday's vote.

The debate takes place at St. Anselm College in Manchester. The forum begins at 8 p.m. ET and will be broadcast live on WMUR-TV and Fox News.

The last time most voters will have seen a live performance by Dean was probably Monday night, when he belted out that call-to-arms after his third-place finish in Iowa. Dean's remarks, he later said, were influenced by his supporters' high level of enthusiasm.

Conservative columnist Robert Novak, a co-host of CNN's "Crossfire," was blunt in his assessment of Dean's speech in Iowa. "I would call that a rant," Novak said Tuesday. "I thought he was raving."

Criticism of his speech came from a site usually overflowing with praise -- his own campaign Web log, or "blog":

"Tonight, after the caucus results, Dean gave his speech to the troops. Yes, he was over the top, but he wasn't speaking to America, he was speaking to us, the Deaniacs," one writer said.

"Having said that, I feel I must say this. ... He should never broadcast a speech like that again. Never. Ever. Again."

Another critic of Dean's speech was Rep. Jim Clyburn, an influential African-American congressmen from South Carolina, one of the February 3 primary states.

Clyburn -- who has not made an endorsement following the departure Tuesday of his chosen candidate, Dick Gephardt -- said the Dean speech "was more detrimental to his campaign than his third-place finish" in the caucuses

Senior strategists say Dean does not plan to repeat that performance anytime soon.

Nevertheless, the candidate sounded characteristically defiant Wednesday morning, opening his remarks at a rally in Manchester by promising to stay the course.

"We're going to win in New Hampshire, and the way we're going to do that is by sticking to the formula that got us here, whether people think it's right or not," he said.
Dean must be shaking in his boots at this point. Amazing that Kerry just jumped right into the lead this fast.
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Mr Bean
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Post by Mr Bean »

Dean must be shaking in his boots at this point. Amazing that Kerry just jumped right into the lead this fast.
I think it was noted the last person who won Iowa and went on to win the President was Crater

And as Fox news was so quick to report though I found all to funny, roughly 60% of Iowain's said they might switch their vote or were otherwise Undecided until voting day

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Pardon me for sounding like a dick, but I'm playing the tiniest violin in the world right now-Dalton
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LordShaithis
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Post by LordShaithis »

Ah, good old President Crater.
If Religion and Politics were characters on a soap opera, Religion would be the one that goes insane with jealousy over Politics' intimate relationship with Reality, and secretly murder Politics in the night, skin the corpse, and run around its apartment wearing the skin like a cape shouting "My votes now! All votes for me! Wheeee!" -- Lagmonster
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Chardok
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Post by Chardok »

From the state of Iowai, no less ;)

As an aside, upon seeing the thread title, I had this picture in my head of Kerry running around Warsaw wearing a loincloth and toting a flamethrower, laughing manically as he torches city hall.
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Gil Hamilton
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Post by Gil Hamilton »

GrandAdmiralPrawn wrote:Ah, good old President Crater.
I miss President Crater, the HAB President. He made a strong mark with me when he coverted his opponents house into a smoking pile, thanks to his enormous personal arsenal of missiles. :D
"Show me an angel and I will paint you one." - Gustav Courbet

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"Really, I'm jealous of how much smarter than me he is. I'm not an expert on anything and he's an expert on things he knows nothing about." - Me, concerning a bullshitter
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