Election Projection 2004

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2004-01-23 06:55pm

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Cool site, though I'm not sure about the accuracy of the formula this guy uses.

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2004-01-23 07:04pm

I seriously question anything of this nature before the vast majority of people know anything about whoever the Dem candidate will be.

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2004-01-23 07:07pm

Yeah, the guy who made it said in his disclaimer that it should increase in accuracy as the election approaches.

The Aliens · Post by **The Aliens** » 2004-01-23 07:34pm

I would take a look at his formula and apply it past elections, which we have all the facts for, and see what sort of accuracy we get.

Master of Ossus · Post by **Master of Ossus** » 2004-01-23 08:11pm

The formula is highly suspect at best, since it does not differentiate between voter loyalty towards one party or another in each state. For example, California and New York are much more strongly loyal to the democratic party than Wyoming and New Mexico, with far fewer swing voters, yet the formula makes the same percentage adjustment to both states. This will obviously make a huge difference in terms of voting, and will obviously favor the incumbent president in all but the most dire circumstances.