Russia says: We ain't feeling the CFE Treaty anymore

[Lonestar]

London Financial Times
February 9, 2004

Moscow's Threat To Leave Treaty Shocks West

By Judy Dempsey

Russia was considering pulling out of asecurity treaty that limits troop movements and conventional weapons throughout Europe and Russia, Sergei Ivanov, Russian defence minister, told an international security conference in Munich.

The threat stunned US and European defence officials, since a decision by Russia to withdraw from the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty would destroy one of the main cornerstones of European security.

John McCain, Republican senator, was one of the few top US officials at the conference to accuse Moscow of reneging on its treaty commitments and its policies in Chechnya.

The CFE treaty, negotiated during the 1980s by the then Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe, represented one of the most significant breakthroughs on reducing conventional forces between Nato and the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact.

But since 1999, when the treaty was updated to take into account the break-up of the Soviet Union, Russia has consistently refused to ratify the treaty and withdraw its forces from several parts of the Caucasus.

Russia has two military bases in republic of Georgia, now led by a new and democratic government that wants to join Nato.

Russian officials said Moscow had no money to pay for the redeployment of the troops but the US recently offered to help with the costs. Colin Powell, US secretary of state, raised the issue with President Vladimir Putin last month, signalling a tougher approach from Washington.

Russia also has troops and armaments in Trans Dniestr, whose pro-Russian communist-led leadership wants to break away from Moldova.

Mr Ivanov said the amended treaty "in its actual form cannot continue to uphold stability and the balance of interests" largely because of the way Nato has expanded. The treaty, he added, could end up a relic of the cold war, like the ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) Treaty the US and Russia scrapped two years ago.

Nato will admit seven new countries in April, three of which are the Baltic states. This, said Mr Ivanov, would undermine the treaty, as several of the new members would remain outside it, "making the treaty system of limitations imperfect".

Diplomats said Russia believed it might have some leverage ahead of the Nato expansion because Moscow might link ratification and implementation of the CFE treaty to any move by Nato to establish new bases in Poland and the Baltic countries.

Mr Ivanov, however, made clear Russia would not stop Nato enlargement, but equally made it clear the future of the CFE treaty was not guaranteed.

Alright Vympel, looks like they'll be buying those 5,000 T-90's after all....

[Lonestar]

From the NY Times

New York Times
February 9, 2004

Putin's 'Creeping Coup

By William Safire

MUNICH — This city is no longer the venue of appeasement.

At an annual security conference here on the eve of NATO's seven-state expansion, Moscow's neo-imperialist defense minister threatened to back out of an agreement limiting the size of his armed forces on Russia's European front.

Sergei Ivanov's bluff was immediately called by U.S. Senator John McCain. The Arizonan had accused Putin's regime of a "creeping coup" against democracy within Russia, as well as a campaign to intimidate and reassert control over states — from the Baltics to Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine — that our victory in the cold war had liberated from Soviet rule.

This Russia-NATO confrontation has been brewing for a year. While France and Germany split with the rest of Europe and the U.S. over the war in Iraq, Putin took advantage of the world's distraction to crack down on internal dissent and to undermine the independence of his neighbors.

The first public inkling of U.S. concern with Putin's irredentism came in Secretary Colin Powell's trip last month to attend the inauguration of Georgia's new elected leader, signaling strong support for that nation's independence. This was accompanied by a Powell article in Izvestia uncommonly critical of Moscow's repression of the media.

Western reaction to Russia's new aggressiveness was further expressed last week in Riga, Latvia. The Baltics' surge toward independence in 1989 was the first sign of the impending crack-up of the Soviet Union. The West's coming inclusion of those three states in NATO redresses a horrific Hitler-Stalin wrong, but is galling to Moscow, which has been fostering resentment among Russian ethnics implanted there since Stalin's time.

In Latvia's capital, the Baltic states gathered with Scandinavian nations to focus European human-rights attention on internal democratic opposition to outright tyrants like Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus and the former K.G.B. crowd that runs Moldova. Though Ukraine gave up its nukes and has 1,700 troops in Iraq, it has an autocratic ruler in Leonid Kuchma, reportedly rigging its fall elections. McCain led a Congressional delegation to this Riga meeting on his way to Munich and heard the anguished story of a dissident Belarus leader whose husband is one of the "disappeared."

At the 40th Wehrkunde Conference in Munich, Ivanov unloaded on the West. The pressure point he chose was the Conventional Forces in Europe (C.F.E.) treaty, negotiated a decade ago, initialed but never signed. In 1996, as NATO prepared to admit Eastern Europe, it set up a formal relationship with Russia, assuring it that no nukes and no "substantial combat forces" would be placed close to its border. Three years later, Russia made the "Istanbul commitments" to pull its troops out of Georgia and Moldova, which it still has not done.

"We assumed those commitments in a definite military and political environment," Ivanov warned, "with the admission of the invitees to NATO, this environment will drastically change." Of the C.F.E. treaty, he asked: "Might it be another `relic of the cold war,' as the ABM treaty has been labeled some time ago" before it was "shelved to the dustbin"? He made Putin's threat plainer: "The adapted C.F.E. treaty may well end up as the ABM treaty was fated to."

Looking hard at McCain, Ivanov said, "One of the major priorities of the Russian foreign policy is our relationship with our closest neighbors . . . relations with the Commonwealth of Independent States are in no way a hallmark of Russian-brand `neo-imperialism,' as some try to depict it, but an imperative for security. . . ."

McCain is no Neville Chamberlain. "Under President Putin," he responded, "Russia has refused to comply with the terms of the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe. Russian troops occupy parts of Georgia and Moldova . . . Russian agents are working to bring Ukraine further into Moscow's orbit. Russian support sustains Europe's last dictatorship in Belarus. And Moscow has . . . enforced its stranglehold on energy supplies into Latvia in order to squeeze the democratic government in Riga."

Speaking with the freedom of a senator, McCain said "undemocratic behavior and threats to the sovereignty and liberty of her neighbors will not profit Russia . . . but will exclude her from the company of Western democracies."

As its role becomes global, NATO must not lose its original purpose: to contain the Russian bear.

[Stormbringer]

Hmmm, that's a rather interesting threat. I doubt any one thinks they'll be heading for Paris any time soon so why make the threat.

[Gandalf]

If Russia attacks a non NATO state, would anyone bother to stop them?

Aside from that, it seems pretty damn useless.

[theski]

Hell They might even have to make Harpoon 4 if this keeps up and a sequel to Red Storm Rising

[Stormbringer]

If Russia attacks a non NATO state, would anyone bother to stop them?

Aside from that, it seems pretty damn useless.

That'd depend on who and with what. But in general probably.


Except if it was France, then we'd wish them luck.

[Ma Deuce]

Frankly, I don't know what the Russians hope to gain from this. It's not like they can actually hope to beat NATO using conventional arms, and any overt attack on a foreign power would ultimately cost them more than it would gain them...

[beyond hope]

Tit for tat over Bush announcing we'll deploy missile interceptors, maybe?

[Lonestar]

Russia already gots ABM batteries, not relavent.

[Shaidar Haran]

Russia already gots ABM batteries, not relavent.

Perhaps, but Russia hates them none the less.

[Vympel]

They make it sound like Russia is preparing to invade Western Europe. All Russia is refusing to do is remove it's troops from former Soviet states, and it's quite obvious why the US is protesting to that; their leaving lessens Russia's traditional 'caucasian' sphere of influence.

I liked William Safire's rant, btw, classic Cold War paranoia warmed over for the 21st century.

[Stuart Mackey]

They make it sound like Russia is preparing to invade Western Europe. All Russia is refusing to do is remove it's troops from former Soviet states, and it's quite obvious why the US is protesting to that; their leaving lessens Russia's traditional 'caucasian' sphere of influence.

snip.

Indeed, perhaps the Russians feel annoyed at any real or imagined prospect of their influence being supplanted by that of the USA?

[Vympel]

Indeed, perhaps the Russians feel annoyed at any real or imagined prospect of their influence being supplanted by that of the USA?

Certainly. The Caucasus is going to be very important this century. Unfortunately for the US, they have very little prospect of getting really entrenched; they're too distant and Russia is too close, and has too much leverage as it is. They're certainly trying though (see their military bases created for the support of Operation "Enduring Freedom" *groan*- they were *supposed* to be temporary).

[Stuart Mackey]

Indeed, perhaps the Russians feel annoyed at any real or imagined prospect of their influence being supplanted by that of the USA?

Certainly. The Caucasus is going to be very important this century. Unfortunately for the US, they have very little prospect of getting really entrenched; they're too distant and Russia is too close, and has too much leverage as it is. They're certainly trying though (see their military bases created for the support of Operation "Enduring Freedom" *groan*- they were *supposed* to be temporary).

Well the op title is a dead giveaway to their intentions
But unles the Russians can sort out their economy and control the corruption, they are not going to be more than a very strong regional power.

[Colonel Olrik]

MUNICH — This city is no longer the venue of appeasement.

At an annual security conference here on the eve of NATO's

Then that's what the blocked streets, helicopters and military police all over the city were all about. Nobody tells me about these things

[Colonel Olrik]

If Russia attacks a non NATO state, would anyone bother to stop them?

Aside from that, it seems pretty damn useless.

That'd depend on who and with what. But in general probably.


Except if it was France, then we'd wish them luck.

France is Nato, and since to get them they'd have to pass by me I fully expect help from my american friends.

[Col. Crackpot]

If Russia attacks a non NATO state, would anyone bother to stop them?

Aside from that, it seems pretty damn useless.

That'd depend on who and with what. But in general probably.


Except if it was France, then we'd wish them luck.

France is Nato, and since to get them they'd have to pass by me I fully expect help from my american friends.

Of course. But you know we'd have to act in accordance with the enlightened sensibility of France. Exhaust all means of diplomacy first....even if that means Paris has to burn before we respond with force. We can't be percieved as warmongers after all. mon dieu no!

[Vympel]

Of course. But you know we'd have to act in accordance with the enlightened sensibility of France. Exhaust all means of diplomacy first....even if that means Paris has to burn before we respond with force. We can't be percieved as warmongers after all. mon dieu no!

Paris won't burn. They'll surrender first. (See, even I can make anti-French jokes, even though they're all BS).

[TheDarkling]

Certainly. The Caucasus is going to be very important this century. Unfortunately for the US, they have very little prospect of getting really entrenched; they're too distant and Russia is too close, and has too much leverage as it is. They're certainly trying though (see their military bases created for the support of Operation "Enduring Freedom" *groan*- they were *supposed* to be temporary).

I think the EU could end up being the main challenger to Russia in the Caucasus (of course that depends upon whether the wider Europe scheme is a step towards EU membership or a dead end), which should please Russia no end considering their constant whining about the current enlargement.

[Chardok]

Is it getting chilly in here? YAY! Another cold war! Back to big military, MASSIVE dick-waving, Nuclear one upmanship, and a SPACE RACE! I'm sorry, but fear fuels advancement, it seems (Read: 1980's)

(I know it's not really happening, I'm just keeping with the mood of the article.)

[phongn]

Russia already gots ABM batteries, not relavent.

To be fair, the Moscow ABM system was permitted under the ABM Treaty (as was the Grand Forks ABM site)

[Sea Skimmer]

Not like this matters, Russia couldn't afford to man its forces to the levels allowed by the treaty, and the treaty was something of a joke anyway since everyone met its limits by destroying obsolete junk, the Soviets got around some of even that by moving the equipment to Siberia.

[Vympel]

Not like this matters, Russia couldn't afford to man its forces to the levels allowed by the treaty, and the treaty was something of a joke anyway since everyone met its limits by destroying obsolete junk, the Soviets got around some of even that by moving the equipment to Siberia.

"You're cheating!"

"Nyet, comrade, you see, Siberia is not Europe."

Brilliant.

[fgalkin]

Not like this matters, Russia couldn't afford to man its forces to the levels allowed by the treaty, and the treaty was something of a joke anyway since everyone met its limits by destroying obsolete junk, the Soviets got around some of even that by moving the equipment to Siberia.

Bwahaha. Makes me feel proud for Mother Russia.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin