The 2016 US Election (Part II)

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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Lord MJ »

Just one article on the subject of money in politics. Nailing down specific instances where politicians are influenced is the wrong question. It's the quantitative effects of money in politics that are the issue. Furthermore the fact that incentive structure leans for politicians to be pro-donor whose political leanings would be decidedly corporatist and conservative on economic issues.


http://www.scholarsstrategynetwork.org/ ... n-politics
How Money Corrupts American Politics

Benjamin I. Page, Northwestern University

Money cannot always buy election results; weak candidates often lose even when they outspend their opponents. Nor is outright bribery very common; elected officeholders rarely sell specific votes directly Yet the perfectly legal flood of money that pervades American politics has fundamentally corrupting effects.

The effects of money are manifold, subtle, and hard to pin down, but a number of pathways of influence can be laid out. Most are based on judgments about the best available evidence, short of irrefutable proof. But on certain key points the quantitative evidence is fairly conclusive. Political scientist Gary Jacobson and other scholars have pinned down how monetary advantages affect chances of winning congressional elections Large amounts of money are virtually essential if a candidate is to have any serious chance of winning. Inability to raise big money leads to losing general elections, losing party nominations, or giving up even before getting started. Thus the need to raise money acts as a filter, tending to eliminate public officials who hold certain points of view – even points of view that are popular with most Americans.

The need for money tends to filter out centrist candidates. Most congressional districts are gerrymandered to ensure a big advantage for one party or the other, so that election outcomes are actually decided in low-salience, low-turnout, one-party primary elections. Primaries are usually dominated by ideological party activists and money givers, who tend to hold extreme views and to reject all but the purest partisan candidates. This contributes to party polarization and legislative gridlock in Congress.

The need for money filters out candidates on the economic left. Democratic as well as Republican candidates have to raise big money, most of which comes from economically successful entrepreneurs and professionals who tend to hold rather conservative views on taxes, social welfare spending, and economic regulation. As a result, few candidates whose views are not broadly acceptable to the affluent are nominated or elected.

The quest for money tilts candidates' priorities and policy stands. Countless hours spent grubbing for money from affluent contributors changes candidates' priorities and sense of constituent needs. As they speak with potential donors, candidates hear repeatedly about resentment of progressive taxes and "wasteful" social spending. Special tax breaks for corporations and hedge fund managers start to sound reasonable.

Affluent citizens get extra influence by turning out to vote, working in campaigns, and contacting officials. Campaign contributions are not the only way in which affluent people get involved in politics; these same people tend to be active in other ways too, underscoring their importance to candidates.

Money can tip the outcome of close elections. Money spent on media, organizing, and turnout tends to increase vote totals, giving a significant advantage to candidates favored by money givers.

Money buys access to officials. When big contributors contact officials they tend to get attention. Their economic resources enable them to get a hearing, to offer help with information and expertise – even to draft bills. Research shows that these processes boost the influence of the affluent on the policy topics and ideas officeholders consider, biasing the public agenda toward the concerns of the affluent.

The quest for re-election money affects officials' priorities and policy stands. From the moment they win office, candidates look ahead to the money they must raise for reelection, and this is bound to steal time from official duties and slant their attention toward constituents who are substantial donors.

In sum, the net effects of money in politics include distraction from the public business, exacerbation of polarization and gridlock, and distortion of policy making in wasteful, inefficient, and anti-democratic directions. These are not trivial costs to American democracy, and their impact raises the obvious question: what can be done? There is little immediate prospect for a Supreme Court decision or Constitutional amendment to reduce the impact of money on politics. But the effects of big private money could be greatly diluted through public funding – for example, by letting all citizens contribute with "democracy vouchers" (as legal expert Larry Lessig has proposed) or instituting some other system of matching small contributions. To make something like this happen – over the likely resistance of wealthy big contributors – would require a broad, bipartisan social movement. Citizens of various ideological persuasions would have to join together, much as Americans once did in broad reform movements during the Progressive Era of the early twentieth century.

Benjamin Page is the Gordon Scott Fulcher Professor of Decision Making at Northwestern University. Click here to learn more about Ben's research and advocacy.

Click here to read the next contribution to our forum from Kay Schlozman, "The Other Kind of Political Money."
http://democracyjournal.org/magazine/27 ... e-economy/

And another. Emphasis added
SYMPOSIUM | EVERYONE’S FIGHT: THE NEW PLAN TO DEFEAT BIG MONEY
How Big Money Corrupts the Economy
BY JACOB S. HACKER NATHAN LOEWENTHEIL FROM WINTER 2013, NO. 27 – 12 MIN READ
TAGGED CAMPAIGN FINANCEECONOMICS

If war is politics by other means, political spending is economic war by other means. Runaway campaign spending and lobbying don’t just stand in the way of a fair political system. They also stand in the way of an economy that works for the middle class.
After all, why do corporations and the super-rich pour money into campaigns and lobbying? Sometimes political convictions are at play. But far more so than small-scale donors, the biggest spenders are investing in favorable policy outcomes. Money doesn’t just give big spenders the chance to express a view or support a candidate; it gives them leverage to reshape the American economy in their favor. And as the richest have pulled away from the rest of America, the policies they want—extremely low tax rates on the wealthy at a time of record deficits, rampant underinvestment in our future, special treatment for corporations that are imposing major environmental costs and financial risks on our society—are increasingly at odds with the policies the country desperately needs.

Of course, money has always been part of American politics. William McKinley’s political fixer, Mark Hanna, famously said, “There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money, and I can’t remember what the second one is.” But Hanna spoke at the end of an era, the Gilded Age of staggering inequality and government corruption. In the decades that followed, reformers acted on the calls of Theodore Roosevelt (“the supreme political task of our day… is to drive the special interests out of our public life”) and Franklin Roosevelt (“we now know that government by organized money is as dangerous as government by organized mob”) to reinvigorate a realm of civic life distinct from the disparities and imbalances of the market.

The goal was not just greater political equality. It was also to prevent the capture of government by powerful economic interests and to create space for economic policies that would further the interests of broad majorities of citizens. New rules for Wall Street prevented the destabilizing financial crises that were endemic under the hands-off regime demanded by the financial industry. Providing for workplace safety and economic security meant workers were better protected and more productive. Raising taxes on the wealthy funded investments in education and infrastructure, providing long-term benefits to society and the economy alike.

Today, however, the floodwalls between the market and democracy are washing away, and both sides of the barrier are being reshaped by the new currents of influence. It’s not just the sheer volume of dollars that’s driving the change. At least as important is the growing gulf between those at the commanding heights of our economy and the rest of Americans. The share of pretax national income going to the richest 0.1 percent has roughly quadrupled since the 1970s. At the same time, as our economy has grown more globalized and finance has increased in importance, many of the richest companies have increasingly separated themselves from the fate of ordinary U.S. workers. The interests of today’s corporate titans are not as well aligned with the interests of the American middle class as they were a generation ago.

The consequences of these growing divides are visible all around us: a tepid response to the housing and jobs crisis even as Wall Street received a generous rescue; a recovery that’s been much better for the richest 1 percent (who received 93 percent of pre-tax income gains in 2010) than for the rest of Americans; and rates of joblessness and underemployment that remain tragically high. Over the last generation, the middle class has faced rising health and education costs, weakened job and retirement security, and stagnating opportunities for advancement. Yet government too often has failed to respond, or has responded in ways that actually made the problems worse. A major reason is the weakening political clout of the middle class in a more money-centered political world.

Winners Write The Rules
Two players in the market for political power have gained the most ground: the super-rich, and corporate and financial lobbies. To be sure, these are overlapping groups. Six in ten of the richest 0.1 percent of Americans are corporate or financial executives. The Koch brothers, for example, are both huge individual donors and leaders of an industry juggernaut. Nonetheless, it’s useful to consider the groups separately. According to a recent survey of the super-wealthy by a team of enterprising political scientists, the rich are primarily concerned with taxes and deficits. Corporations care about these things too, but their primary focus is industry-specific regulations and subsidies. And while the super-rich focus heavily on contributions to campaigns (while also funding advocacy), corporations put most of their money into lobbying (while also funding campaigns).
The most important thing to bear in mind about the super-rich is that they are more conservative than average. In fact, much more so: While most voters rank creating jobs a much higher priority than reducing the deficit, the rich express exactly the opposite preference—which may explain why jobs don’t seem to be such a high priority in Washington. And in contrast with voters of more modest means, the rich appear to support cutting even highly popular economic-security programs rather than raising taxes to close the budget gap. As the authors of the survey conclude, “If wealthy Americans have an extra measure of influence over policy making and public discourse, then their focus on deficit reduction and budget cutting may help explain why elite pundits and Washington politicians are currently contemplating deep cuts in the very social welfare programs that are most popular among ordinary Americans.”

For those at the very top, the personal stakes are potentially huge: A study of the top 400 taxpaying households showed that just the reduction of effective individual income tax rates between 1995 and 2007 (from averages of 30 percent to 16.6 percent) was worth a mean of $46 million per year for each of these fortunate 400. The flip side of the aggressive pursuit of lower taxes by the rich has been chronic deficits and insufficient funds for public goods like infrastructure, education, and job training—areas where we are rapidly falling behind global competitors.
Rich conservative voters make for well-funded Republican campaigns. Right-wing super PACs have flourished not just because conservatives were the first to embrace them, but also because the super-rich are mostly Republicans. In the early part of the last election cycle, Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS disclosed that nearly 90 percent of its funds came from less than a couple dozen donors, with two donors giving $10 million each. According to a joint report by Demos and the U.S. Public Interest Research Group, more than half of the $230 million raised by super PACs from individuals in the first two quarters of 2012 came from just 47 people giving at least $1 million. This is one of the reasons why the GOP has moved so far to the right over the past generation: The rising sway of lobbying and big donors has generally reinforced their policy leanings. For Democrats, the consequences have been less happy. Caught between traditional commitments and the ever more intense scramble for money, they have faced pressures to moderate their stances on economic issues, as well as seek out supportive pools of money—whether in trial law or entertainment or finance—with policy interests that may not benefit the middle class.

For corporations and Wall Street, campaign finance is only one weapon. The other is direct spending to influence policy. Indeed, for most organized interests, spending on elections is just the training season; the real games begin once elected officials start governing. David Koch put it bluntly: “Our main interest is not participating in campaigns…. Our main interest is in policy.” This from a man who, combined with his brother and the political network he leads, spent more in the 2012 election cycle than the entire campaign of John McCain did in 2008. One wonders what he’d be spending if campaigns were his main interest.

Activist financiers like the Kochs frame their efforts in terms of ideology. But one should not miss the heavy element of self-interest involved. Koch Industries, which is involved in industries ranging from manufacturing to energy production, benefits enormously from subsidies for big energy, as well as from the malign neglect of climate change—a status quo the Kochs have worked aggressively to preserve. And for most corporate lobbies, there’s not even a screen of ideology. Their overriding goal is to protect or expand their market advantage. The financial industry lobbied to wipe out the New Deal-era rules that reduced systemic risks—but also industry profits. The pharmaceutical and hospital lobbies have repeatedly killed off threats to high medical prices, padding their pockets and driving up public and private spending. The oil and gas industries use their heft in Washington not only to oppose climate change policies, but to protect valuable land leases through which they are able to exploit public resources for pennies on the dollar.

Companies lobby not just for weak regulations and direct subsidies, but also to keep other pesky challenges to profits at bay. Workers’ demands for unions can be headed off with new laws as well as anti-union drives within firms. Corporate taxes can be brought down with lobbying as well as clever tax planning: Of the eight companies that lobbied the most aggressively between 2007 and 2009, seven saw their tax rates fall from 2007 to 2010, and six saw declines of seven percentage points or more, even as the median company among 200 firms saw its tax rate fall by just 0.2 percent. The savings were worth an estimated $11 billion—which, if entirely due to lobbying, would indicate a return on investment of over 2,000 percent. Competitors can be beaten in the political arena as well as the market. The consolidation of the financial industry—in 2010, the five biggest banks held more than half of total bank assets, up from 30 percent in 2001—reflects not just economies of scale but also the implicit federal backstop that large banks enjoy because of their size and lobbying clout.

Lower taxes or no taxes, favorable regulations or no regulations—each group comes with its own agenda, and invests where the return is highest. In recent years, those investments have often taken the form of hiring members of Congress or executive branch officials and their staff for lobbying or other positions. A forthcoming study in the American Economic Review suggests that staffers’ biggest attraction to lobbying shops is their connections: Revolving-door lobbyists experience a massive, immediate drop in lobbying revenue when a former boss leaves office. Hiring former public officials is a win-win deal: You win when your newly hired guns use their expertise to shape public policy, and you win when all public servants start thinking about their next, highly lucrative job.

Establishing the effect of any one lobbying foray or big campaign check is difficult. But the net effect is easy to see: an economy in which market winners write the rules, adding to their advantages and trampling over other priorities. All of this undermines public trust in government, breeds public cynicism, and makes the economy work less well for those without the clout to invest in politics. The danger is that the cycle will become self-reinforcing—which is why taking steps to break it is so important.

Starting Reform Right Now
Wealthy individuals and large corporations make financial investments in politics with the hope of improving their economic position. Politicians demand money because it helps win elections and secures their power. Any effort to curb the influence of concentrated economic interests has to address both the supply of and demand for political money.

Most reforms have focused on the former. Yet current First Amendment jurisprudence poses huge hurdles to spending regulations. Voluntary public financing will always be fragile in a system where some candidates can benefit from unlimited spending. Forging the legal basis for more significant regulation of campaign finance will require laying new intellectual foundations while gradually shifting the composition of the Supreme Court—the work of many years.

But while supply is a long-term problem, we can start reducing demand right now. Take lobbying: Members of Congress and agency officials depend on lobbyists in part because lobbyists provide genuine policy expertise and political information. The average member of the House has around eight staff members working on all policy issues, from trade to financial regulation to education policy, most of them twenty-somethings fresh out of college. The number and technical know-how of congressional staff should be increased, and sources of unbiased analytic information—like the Office of Technology Assessment, which Congress killed in 1995—created and expanded. Likewise, improving the quality, resources, pay, and staffing levels of personnel in key regulatory agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission would help reduce the sway and influence of special interests—not only by increasing the capacity of the regulators, but also by making agency work more attractive as a long-term career.
The demand for political donations is a comparable problem. Why do politicians need so much money? Because it wins elections. If money didn’t matter, politicians wouldn’t want it. Money is needed for campaign staff, direct mail, get-out-the-vote operations, and, most costly of all, television advertising. If we can reduce the importance of advertising, the demand for money would be substantially reduced. Free airtime for candidates might be a good step, especially if combined with voter outreach and education.

Above all, we can make money matter less if we make more equally distributed political resources matter more. Encouraging voting through various means—from same-day registration to a national voting holiday—is one approach. Even more important, however, is building political organizations that can supplement the traditional but waning role of labor and other large-scale membership groups.
Whatever the strategy, the starting point is having the right conversation. Today, reformers stress the injustice of unequal political resources—and surely that injustice is real. But, as we argue in our recent report, “Prosperity Economics,” the arguments that sound most loudly in current debate concern not broad values but hard economics. Middle-class Americans are losing their jobs and their economic security, and they believe government isn’t looking out for them. Asked in mid-2010 whom government had helped “a great deal” during the downturn, 53 percent of Americans said banks and financial institutions. Forty-four percent pointed to large corporations. Just 2 percent thought federal policies had helped the middle class a great deal. Reformers need to explain how campaign donations and lobbying are undermining not only a healthy democracy that distributes political influence broadly, but also a healthy economy that distributes economic rewards broadly.
“Money to get power, power to protect money” was the motto of the Medici family. It seems sadly relevant to American politics today. Those powerful elites ruled Florence for centuries. We can’t wait that long.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by jwl »

As we've seen from the Democratic nomination, no election is ever a coronation. Hillary will have to fight for it.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Flagg »

Raw Shark wrote:
Flagg wrote:As long as you accept that not voting for Hillary is a vote for Trump and don't whine like a baby when made fun of for it.
No, it's a vote for Stein. We need a viable third party to break the dichotomy, and the more people that support one, the more likely that it will happen. I voted Green guilt-free in a blue state in 2000, and I'll proudly do it again.
It's a vote for Trump because the only people voting third party are crazy right wingers and butthurt Sanders supporters. It doesn't benefit Stein because despite Americans by and large being mouth-breathers who can't find their asshole without GPS and help from the stoner behind the 7-11 counter, they still manage to just by and large vote for the twat with the "R" or "D" next to their name.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by jwl »

Flagg, this kind of aggressive attitude isn't going to make people want to change their opinion.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Raw Shark »

Flagg wrote:It's a vote for Trump because the only people voting third party are crazy right wingers and butthurt Sanders supporters. It doesn't benefit Stein because despite Americans by and large being mouth-breathers who can't find their asshole without GPS and help from the stoner behind the 7-11 counter, they still manage to just by and large vote for the twat with the "R" or "D" next to their name.
My butt feels okay today, thanks. Benefiting Stein herself is not my priority. I like her, but she'll never win. My goal is to benefit the Democratic party, the Green party, and the state of politics in this nation. We need a viable third party to un-fuck ourselves, and if we can't have one right now, and can't have a candidate that I believe in who can win the general, I would rather take baby steps towards that than concede to the short-term inevitable. You can call me a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.

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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by jwl »

Personally, I think if there is to be a viable third party in the US for the president, the green party is not that party. Any such a third party needs to appeal to soft republican voters as well as soft democrats, and the green party doesn't do this. For Congress, the green party could have more viability, because it's not winner-takes-all, you can gain a seat by just having local support in a blue state or distinct.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Elheru Aran »

If a viable third party is going to form, it'll probably be an offshoot of the Republican Party, IMO. We've been seeing signs of a split (or possibly splits, plural) forming for some time now. The evangelical wing is disconnected from the center of the party, and the Tea Party lot are similarly chafing at the bit, though that movement has been dying down for some time now.

We're most likely to see a split in the Republican Party and a decade or two of Democrat primacy for some time before the Democrats suffer a similar split in their own right. Though depending on how the convention goes, it's possible there may be a split among the Democrats rather sooner than that, as the progressive/socialist wing of the party may decide that the centrist establishment Democrats aren't going to change anything.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Borgholio »

I can't see too many Republicans joining the Green party though...they tend to be against the kinds of anti-industrial controls and tax breaks that the Green party feels are necessary to protect the environment through pollution regulation and subsidized clean energy / transportation.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Elheru Aran »

Borgholio wrote:I can't see too many Republicans joining the Green party though...they tend to be against the kinds of anti-industrial controls and tax breaks that the Green party feels are necessary to protect the environment through pollution regulation and subsidized clean energy / transportation.
Yeah, the most likely breaking points for the Republican party are either Libertarian, Evangelical or Tea Party. All three of these have become disaffected with the core Republican Party to some degree-- either for being too repressive, not religious enough, or not conservative enough. For the Democrats, it's going to be more a split over maintaining an establishment course versus extensive social reform.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Borgholio »

What are the odds of some kind of "moderate" party forming? Where people who aren't on the crazy sides of the left or the right tend to settle so they can actually get more stuff done than if they were tied at the hip to the batshit loonies who ruin it for everyone else?
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Elheru Aran »

Borgholio wrote:What are the odds of some kind of "moderate" party forming? Where people who aren't on the crazy sides of the left or the right tend to settle so they can actually get more stuff done than if they were tied at the hip to the batshit loonies who ruin it for everyone else?
...that and a buck-fifty will buy you a cup of coffee.

Seriously, while there is the potential for a moderate party, the divide between Left and Right in this country has been poisoned severely by generations of political theater, Cold War anti-Communism/Socialism, and a general antipathy towards compromise.

Could it happen? In a few generations, certainly. Anytime soon? I don't really think so. It's more likely that you might see a moderate candidate from one party or the other pulling enough unaligned votes to make waves.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Purple »

The Romulan Republic wrote:Yeah, but I think that the persona they're largely gravitating towards is "Outspoken bigot/bully who's not afraid to "tell it like it is" (as they see it) about how the evil women and liberals and minorities are threatening us." He's an asshole bigot who appeals to other asshole bigots because they see a kindred spirit who can get away with voicing the things they were afraid to say.
But that's the thing. The reason why he can do so and get away with it because like it or not the man has a degree of personal charisma. And it will thus be interesting to see what he is going to be up to come general election.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: "Make America Great Again" is basically a polite euphemism for "White Male Power!"
Yea, that's one thing I don't get. Like, he isn't strictly against women or non whites. Not that I know at least. He is anti illegal immigrant and anti-Muslim and anti a lot of things, some of which he shouldn't be. But like where does the white male come from?

Again, I am genuinely curious if I missed something.
Proposing to bar people from the country on the basis of religion
Not authoritarian, just stupid and plain wrong.
proposing mass deportation of all illegal immigrants
Not authoritarian. Also frankly not even stupid or wrong on a conceptual or moral level. Just completely impractical given the number of illegals you have and their deep ties to the economic structure of your country as well as just how easy they can just walk back in.
encouraging violence against his political opponents
Again, not authoritarian. It's not like he is advocating for the government to have those powers. Only for private citizens to do it in his name. So its just plain old fashioned evil.
proposing changing the law to make it easier to sue the press
Can you pull some details on this out for me? I am genuinely curious none the least for the reason that frankly I think that to some degree this would not be a bad idea. The press these days have turned into a 24/7 gossip machine where fact checking has become a thing of the past. So some measures to turn them back to what they were before the internet age might not be bad.

Although I doubt that Trump gave out any concrete details or that if he did they were the kind of sane and logical thing require as opposed to Trumpisms.
and proposing to bring back more torture techniques

Er... again, not authoritarian. There is nothing undemocratic about torture as long as it is accepted by the people voting. Now again, just plain evil.
are all Drumpf positions and all, in my opinion, authoritarian positions.
Looking at them as I just did... well basically it seems to me that you have an Orwellian definition of what a fascist is. As in
"The word Fascism has now no meaning except in so far as it signifies "something not desirable". The words democracy, socialism, freedom, patriotic, realistic, justice have each of them several different meanings which cannot be reconciled with one another. "
Really like just call the man what he is, misguided and occasionally Evil.
I find this an overly simplistic stereotype that normalizes and encourages acceptance of political dishonesty and corruption.

No one is perfectly honest, perhaps (politician or otherwise), but not everyone is equally dishonest.
I on the other hand find it to be a very good starting point from which to view those engaged in politics as it forever reminds us of the dishonesty and corruption inseparably inherent in that profession and thus keeps us vigilant against their excesses.

Simply put he who assumes no wrong will find no wrong until it grows and festers so much that he is drowning in it. And he who assumes wrong at every corner will be forever watchful and see it the moment it appears which in turn permits hopefully squashing it before it grows.
It has become clear to me in the previous days that any attempts at reconciliation and explanation with the community here has failed. I have tried my best. I really have. I pored my heart out trying. But it was all for nothing.

You win. There, I have said it.

Now there is only one thing left to do. Let us see if I can sum up the strength needed to end things once and for all.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by TheFeniX »

Raw Shark wrote:My butt feels okay today, thanks. Benefiting Stein herself is not my priority. I like her, but she'll never win. My goal is to benefit the Democratic party, the Green party, and the state of politics in this nation. We need a viable third party to un-fuck ourselves, and if we can't have one right now, and can't have a candidate that I believe in who can win the general, I would rather take baby steps towards that than concede to the short-term inevitable. You can call me a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.
I hear you. I remember my 5th grade teacher talking about how he envied us. That by the time we could vote, there would be almost innumerable parties to choose from based on the differing platforms and even possibly on ethnicity as Hispanics rose to prominence. He was in his 70s at the time, so he's probably spinning in his grave now.

I could not in good conscience vote for Trump or Clinton. Even if Trump does what I expect him to do during the general: dive for the middle and claim his comments were used to drum up support in a party that is so out of whack with reality you're required to act like a sociopath to win the nomination. As for Clinton and Democrats, I have a hard time supporting a party (for just one reason) that talks big about cracking down on illicit FFLs, then uses them to sell guns to foreign nationals.

It's about time, now that the primaries are winding down, to start doing some research into where I'm going to throw my votes away. It's a system that's worked pretty good except in 2012 when I was just so disgusted by everything, I stayed at the office and did some work. Part of the problem I guess, but I didn't give a shit.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Someone apparently didn't tell Bernie that the primary was over and Clinton was the nominee, because he just won West Virginia to go with Indiana. :)

Even if he ultimately loses, every win sends a message that their is strong support for the reforms he's proposing and that the DNC and Clinton can't just sweep his movement under the rug. Good for him.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Gaidin »

You don't really tell Bernie jack. He has to figure it out for himself. At least if you take the nature of his victory speech in context.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Well, the part of his speech that I saw was heavily focussed on attacking Drumpf.

You could read that as him knowing he's not going to beat Clinton and focussing on the general election rather than attacking her.

You could also read it as him acting like a general election candidate and showing he's the best one to go after the fascist.

I don't think he's completely given up on winning the nomination, but I think he probably knows its unlikely, and certainly I think that he'd rather tear down Donald than Clinton at this point. Both Democratic campaigns seem to have eased up a little against each other recently.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Flagg »

jwl wrote:Flagg, this kind of aggressive attitude isn't going to make people want to change their opinion.
I don't care? It's not like at this point people who are still clinging onto the RMS Sandtanic will be changing their minds anyway. It's only going to be when an adult takes him and sits him down and explains that in the waking world he'll never be president and he does the classy thing and stops campaigning for the nomination, or the dumb old bastard starts riots at the convention ensuring at least 4 years of president pouty-lipped douchebag.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Flagg »

Raw Shark wrote:
Flagg wrote:It's a vote for Trump because the only people voting third party are crazy right wingers and butthurt Sanders supporters. It doesn't benefit Stein because despite Americans by and large being mouth-breathers who can't find their asshole without GPS and help from the stoner behind the 7-11 counter, they still manage to just by and large vote for the twat with the "R" or "D" next to their name.
My butt feels okay today, thanks. Benefiting Stein herself is not my priority. I like her, but she'll never win. My goal is to benefit the Democratic party, the Green party, and the state of politics in this nation. We need a viable third party to un-fuck ourselves, and if we can't have one right now, and can't have a candidate that I believe in who can win the general, I would rather take baby steps towards that than concede to the short-term inevitable. You can call me a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.
I'm not calling you a "dreamer", more like a "deluded bastard". Because a vote for anyone but Clinton (or if pigs sprout wings, Sanders) is a vote for Trump.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Gandalf »

The Romulan Republic wrote:Well, the part of his speech that I saw was heavily focussed on attacking Drumpf.

You could read that as him knowing he's not going to beat Clinton and focussing on the general election rather than attacking her.

You could also read it as him acting like a general election candidate and showing he's the best one to go after the fascist.

I don't think he's completely given up on winning the nomination, but I think he probably knows its unlikely, and certainly I think that he'd rather tear down Donald than Clinton at this point. Both Democratic campaigns seem to have eased up a little against each other recently.
I just assumed he was auditioning for Veep, as part of his bold quest for relevance.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Flagg »

Borgholio wrote:What are the odds of some kind of "moderate" party forming? Where people who aren't on the crazy sides of the left or the right tend to settle so they can actually get more stuff done than if they were tied at the hip to the batshit loonies who ruin it for everyone else?
It's called "The Democratic Party". They are the centrist/moderate party. There are some extreme left-wingers in the party, but none that hold an office higher than "Representative" and occasionally (but rarely) "Governor".
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Gandalf wrote:
The Romulan Republic wrote:Well, the part of his speech that I saw was heavily focussed on attacking Drumpf.

You could read that as him knowing he's not going to beat Clinton and focussing on the general election rather than attacking her.

You could also read it as him acting like a general election candidate and showing he's the best one to go after the fascist.

I don't think he's completely given up on winning the nomination, but I think he probably knows its unlikely, and certainly I think that he'd rather tear down Donald than Clinton at this point. Both Democratic campaigns seem to have eased up a little against each other recently.
I just assumed he was auditioning for Veep, as part of his bold quest for relevance.
1. Your insinuation that Sanders has no relevance and is in the wrong for seeking it is exactly the kind of arrogant dismissal of what he represents that I'm worried may cost the Clinton campaign the election and give us President Fascist.

Say what you will about the man, he has the backing of a lot of people, and since his support his heavily among young voters, it is quite plausible that his movement represents the future of the Left in America. Efforts to marginalize him and his supporters are a mistake.

2. You appear to be thinking of Sanders in terms of someone who's foremost ambition is to climb the political ladder- lose the primary, become VP, use as stepping stone to the Presidency. However, Sanders' history doesn't really support that. His record isn't as someone who's spent his career working toward becoming President. And at his age, realistically, he's likely never getting another shot.

He might accept VP if asked for the sake of unity against the Republicans, but I doubt he would be (he's too old and too far from Clinton's position and the DNC seems to be trying to marginalize him). And I don't think he's seriously pursuing it. I can't prove that, but call it a hunch.

I do seem to recall reading somewhere that he's basically said he intends to go back to the Senate if he's not the nominee. And let's face it, he could probably do more for what he believes in their than as Clinton's marginalized, for show-only VP (which is what he'd likely be).
Flagg wrote:
Borgholio wrote:What are the odds of some kind of "moderate" party forming? Where people who aren't on the crazy sides of the left or the right tend to settle so they can actually get more stuff done than if they were tied at the hip to the batshit loonies who ruin it for everyone else?
It's called "The Democratic Party". They are the centrist/moderate party. There are some extreme left-wingers in the party, but none that hold an office higher than "Representative" and occasionally (but rarely) "Governor".
Do you consider Sanders and his voters "extreme left-wingers". I'm not sure I would, but if you do, then their is a significant faction that holds such views in the Democratic Party, and at least one such Democrat in the Senate- because your pathetic insistence that Sanders is not a real Democrat notwithstanding, he officially is one, and is a sitting Senator.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by maraxus2 »

The Romulan Republic wrote:1. Your insinuation that Sanders has no relevance and is in the wrong for seeking it is exactly the kind of arrogant dismissal of what he represents that I'm worried may cost the Clinton campaign the election and give us President Fascist.

Say what you will about the man, he has the backing of a lot of people, and since his support his heavily among young voters, it is quite plausible that his movement represents the future of the Left in America. Efforts to marginalize him and his supporters are a mistake.
If Bernie Sanders supporters are so delicate that insulting their candidate will make them stay home en masse (extremely unlikely, btw), then they're nowhere near the progressives that they present themselves to be. They would be, instead, the cult members that the most egregious anti-Bernie Clinton supporters portray them to be.
The Romulan Republic wrote:2. You appear to be thinking of Sanders in terms of someone who's foremost ambition is to climb the political ladder- lose the primary, become VP, use as stepping stone to the Presidency. However, Sanders' history doesn't really support that. His record isn't as someone who's spent his career working toward becoming President. And at his age, realistically, he's likely never getting another shot.

He might accept VP if asked for the sake of unity against the Republicans, but I doubt he would be (he's too old and too far from Clinton's position and the DNC seems to be trying to marginalize him). And I don't think he's seriously pursuing it. I can't prove that, but call it a hunch.

I do seem to recall reading somewhere that he's basically said he intends to go back to the Senate if he's not the nominee. And let's face it, he could probably do more for what he believes in their than as Clinton's marginalized, for show-only VP (which is what he'd likely be).
He's not going to be the Veep, for the reasons you've elaborated and because Hillary has no reason whatever to want him on the ticket. Her advisors would oppose it to a man. Even Obama's people opposed him when he toyed with the idea of naming her Veep, and she was (is) a hell of a lot more influential in the Democratic Party than Bernie.
Do you consider Sanders and his voters "extreme left-wingers". I'm not sure I would, but if you do, then their is a significant faction that holds such views in the Democratic Party, and at least one such Democrat in the Senate- because your pathetic insistence that Sanders is not a real Democrat notwithstanding, he officially is one, and is a sitting Senator.
Flagg's being a dick, but there are some very real problems with Bernie's Dem candidacy. Quite apart from the fact that he only became a Dem in the very recent past, he consciously sought to maintain arms-length distance from the Vermont Dems. He even helped found a party, the Vermont Progressive Party, that was explicitly opposed to the Dems and has cost them more than one close race in recent elections.

Add to that the fact that Bernie basically didn't raise money for Dem candidates, either in Vermont and elsewhere, and still hasn't done much to aid more than a handful of Dem candidates nationwide. He's a Dem now, and should be considered as such, but let us not pretend that he's been the most regular Democrat in Senate history.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by The Romulan Republic »

I'm clearly not saying Bernie's been a life-long Democrat, because he obviously hasn't, but the fact is, he's chosen to throw his lot in with the Democratic Party now, for better or worse, and as long as he stands by that, I do not see why the party should not welcome him with open arms. Bernie is a potential asset that the Democratic establishment seems determined to waste.

On the VP thing, I don't think its likely that it would be offered, and doubt it would be accepted if it was. And like I said, he can probably do more as a Senator to advance his cause, anyway.

As to Bernie supporters staying home- look, you will not find a stronger critic of Bernie or Bust among Sanders supporters than me. And I hope that most Sanders supporters will back Clinton, although I have my doubts.

Doing otherwise, however, doesn't necessarily mean that they're cult-like Bernie worshipers so much as Clinton haters.

But even if its just a small percentage of them... this election could be closer than you think, and I don't think its wise to alienate a large portion of the Democratic Primary electorate in the general election. If even ten percent of Bernie supporters stay home, that's millions of voters lost.

If Clinton wins, it will not be with an overwhelming margin- it'll be by maybe a few hundred pledged delegates out of several thousand, a margin that might well have disappeared if their had been less voter suppression, more generous registration deadlines, and more independents allowed to vote in primaries/caucuses. In that position, it would behoove her to be a gracious winner and reach out to the other side, not act like the almost fifty percent who didn't vote for her are an irrelevant fringe.
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by Flagg »

I don't consider Sanders to be an "extreme left-winger" simply because of his position on gun control. I don't know how that makes me "a dick".
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Re: The 2016 US Election (Part II)

Post by The Romulan Republic »

Flagg wrote:I don't consider Sanders to be an "extreme left-winger" simply because of his position on gun control. I don't know how that makes me "a dick".
Two separate issues, I think.

Though I do question the wisdom of basing your view of where a candidate fits on the political spectrum around a single issue.
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