The Occupation of Wall Street Spreads

[Ziggy Stardust]

But the mayor has to worry about council members and department heads, and so his office has to negotiate in secret. That's a pretty fundamental conflict.

I don't understand this at all. I realize the mayor isn't all-powerful, and members of the city council are important, but why do they have to negotiate in secret? This sounds more of a cop-out from real negotiation than any real obstacle. And what about the department heads? They are appointed officials, not elected ones. I just don't get what the article is saying, herel; it just sort of mutters vaguely about political "cross-currents" without explaining at all what the problem is.

[PainRack]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nV5T_6aW ... r_embedded#![/youtube]
The first 45 second of the clip appears relevant:D

[Lord Zentei]

Painrack, you need to take out the & and everything after it, or the youtube tags won't work. Like this:



That was the pepper spray incident, seen from several angles and including the events leading up to it.

[PainRack]

Well, that video does answer some questions. There was a half hearted attempt to use force to break the chain apart and its becomes clear that pepper spray was used so as to enforce compliance.

So, the issue no longer becomes one of excessive force but rather, the legality of the orders and etc in question.

[Skgoa]

It's still excessive force. "It's more convenient" is not an excuse to use pepper spray on people.

[CaptainChewbacca]

It's still excessive force. "It's more convenient" is not an excuse to use pepper spray on people.

The 'convenience' of a chemical crowd suppressant is that the officers weren't put in harms' way, and no physical altercation broke out.

[PainRack]

It's still excessive force. "It's more convenient" is not an excuse to use pepper spray on people.

Police officers are allowed to escalate to the use of chemical agents to effect arrest and disperse crowds.

The video makes it clear that the police used a display of force, the threat of pepper spray to disperse the crowd, there was a half-hearted attempt to break the chain when they attempted to pull protesters out before they escalated to chemical agents.

Granted, there is something chilling about how the police officer just sprayed the entire line with pepper spray and swept it up and down the line but that's an emotional issue. We already saw from the clips that police officers used the pain pepper spray did to move in and break up the chain later and USC medics then provided treatment.

[Broomstick]

a) who actually kicks pregnant people like that?

Assaulting a pregnant woman by kicking/hitting/stabbing her in the belly is, unfortunately, far more common than most people realize.

[Skgoa]

It's still excessive force. "It's more convenient" is not an excuse to use pepper spray on people.

Police officers are allowed to escalate to the use of chemical agents to effect arrest and disperse crowds.

The video makes it clear that the police used a display of force, the threat of pepper spray to disperse the crowd, there was a half-hearted attempt to break the chain when they attempted to pull protesters out before they escalated to chemical agents.

Granted, there is something chilling about how the police officer just sprayed the entire line with pepper spray and swept it up and down the line but that's an emotional issue. We already saw from the clips that police officers used the pain pepper spray did to move in and break up the chain later and USC medics then provided treatment.

Once again: just because the protestors weren't bothered by their huffing and puffing, they STILL HAVE NO REASON to use chemical weapons. Court rulings saying just that have been cited in this very thread. If you continue to claim that the police officers would have been put in danger... please define what danger a group of sitting people could ever be to them.

[Kamakazie Sith]

Once again: just because the protestors weren't bothered by their huffing and puffing, they STILL HAVE NO REASON to use chemical weapons. Court rulings saying just that have been cited in this very thread. If you continue to claim that the police officers would have been put in danger... please define what danger a group of sitting people could ever be to them.

Actually, they do not say that. What they do say is jumping right to chemical weapons for a minor violation like trespassing is excessive.

[Losonti Tokash]

Also, on Wednesday while I was at work, the other occupiers put this up on the mall:

[Lord Zentei]

I came across this article. The poll results are 10 days out of date, but nonetheless:

Occupy Wall Street Favor Fading

The Occupy Wall Street movement is not wearing well with voters across the country. Only 33% now say that they are supportive of its goals, compared to 45% who say they oppose them. That represents an 11 point shift in the wrong direction for the movement's support compared to a month ago when 35% of voters said they supported it and 36% were opposed. Most notably independents have gone from supporting Occupy Wall Street's goals 39/34, to opposing them 34/42.

Voters don't care for the Tea Party either, with 42% saying they support its goals to 45% opposed. But asked whether they have a higher opinion of the Tea Party or Occupy Wall Street movement the Tea Party wins out 43-37, representing a flip from last month when Occupy Wall Street won out 40-37 on that question. Again the movement with independents is notable- from preferring Occupy Wall Street 43-34, to siding with the Tea Party 44-40.

I don't think the bad poll numbers for Occupy Wall Street reflect Americans being unconcerned with wealth inequality. Polling we did in some key swing states earlier this year found overwhelming support for raising taxes on people who make over $150,000 a year. In late September we found that 73% of voters supported the 'Buffett rule' with only 16% opposed. And in October we found that Senators resistant to raising taxes on those who make more than a million dollars a year could pay a price at the polls. I don't think any of that has changed- what the downturn in Occupy Wall Street's image suggests is that voters are seeing the movement as more about the 'Occupy' than the 'Wall Street.' The controversy over the protests is starting to drown out the actual message.

Voters continue to be very unhappy with the new majority in the House. Only 37% of voters think the Republicans have been an upgrade from when the Democrats were in charge, to 41% who believe they've been worse. Among independent voters, whose overwhelming support fueled the new GOP majorities, 26% think the Republicans have been an improvement to 37% who believe they've made things worse. That unhappiness extends to John Boehner's personal poll numbers as well- just 30% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 46% who disapprove. That -16 spread is a whole lot worse than the -6 we find for Obama's approval, but you don't see the Speaker being described as unpopular whenever you read about him the way you do the President.

As unpopular as the House Republicans are we find a tie in the generic Congressional ballot with 45% of voters favoring a Democratic candidate and 45% going for a Republican. That's because Congressional Democrats, with a 28/63 approval spread, are almost as unpopular as their GOP counterparts. They've succeeded in poisoning public opinion about the new Republican majority, but they haven't necessarily done anything to make voters see them as a palatable alternative. That will be the challenge for House Democrats in the next year.

Full results here

The "full results" link leads to this article:

Voters moving against Occupy movement

Raleigh, N.C. – As the Occupy Wall Street movement has continued and spread, its esteem in American voters’ eyes has slipped. Last month, when PPP first asked about the movement nationally, voters were split, with 35% supporting the movement’s goals and 36% opposing them. Now, that is 33-45, 11 points worse. Still 52% of Democrats support their goals, but opposition has risen from 16% to 24%. Meanwhile, both Republicans (from 13-59 to 11-71) and independents (from 39-34 to 34-42) have moved 13 or 14 points against O.W.S.

That now makes the movement less popular than its right-wing counterpart, the Tea Party. 42% support that movement’s goals, and 45% oppose them. It was 39-45 in the previous survey. When asked of which movement they have a higher opinion, voters side with the Tea Party now, 43-37, a reverse of last month’s 40-37 in favor of O.W.S. Democrats (from 62-9 for O.W.S. to 58-12) and Republicans (from 11-71 to 10-78) have each moved seven or eight points toward favoring the Tea Party, while independents have shifted 13 points, from 43-34 to 40-44.

Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress remain almost equally reviled. 28% approve and 63% disapprove of Congressional Democrats’ job performance, only one point on the margin better than Republicans’ 26-62, the same situation as last month, when the two parties were at a respective 26-62 and 25-62.

The Republicans’ leader in Congress has far better favor with voters, but is still quite unpopular. Speaker John Boehner gets the nod from 30% of Americans and a thumb’s down from 46%, a five-point improvement from 27-48 last month.

If voters had to choose between the candidates of these two hated parties on their congressional ballot, they would tie at 45%, a three-point improvement for the GOP from a 45-42 Democratic advantage last month.

PPP surveyed 800 American voters from November 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of the job John
Boehner is doing?
Approve .......................................................... 30%
Disapprove...................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 24%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Congressional Democrats are doing?
Approve .......................................................... 28%
Disapprove...................................................... 63%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Congressional Republicans are doing?
Approve .......................................................... 26%
Disapprove...................................................... 62%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q4 Do you think the Republicans are doing a
better job than the Democrats did while in
charge of the House of Representatives, a
worse job, or about the same?
A better job ..................................................... 37%
A worse job ..................................................... 41%
About the same............................................... 21%
Not sure .......................................................... 1%

Q5 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote for the Democratic or
Republican candidate from your district?
Democrat ........................................................ 45%
Republican...................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Q6 Do you support or oppose the goals of the
Occupy Wall Street movement?
Support ........................................................... 33%
Oppose ........................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 22%

Q7 Do you support or oppose the goals of the Tea
Party movement?
Support ........................................................... 42%
Oppose ........................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q8 Do you have a higher opinion of the Occupy
Wall Street movement or the Tea Party
movement?
Occupy Wall St. .............................................. 37%
Tea Party ........................................................ 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 20%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 12%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 15%
Moderate......................................................... 31%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 24%
Very conservative ........................................... 19%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 51%
Man................................................................. 49%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 41%
Republican...................................................... 36%
Independent/Other.......................................... 23%

Q12 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic.......................................................... 10%
White .............................................................. 73%
African-American ............................................ 11%
Other............................................................... 5%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 12%
30 to 45........................................................... 28%
46 to 65........................................................... 40%
Older than 65.................................................. 20%

[Highlord Laan]

The poll is also only 800 people. Out of over 300 million. I'd love to see the margin for error on that one.

[Block]

The poll is also only 800 people. Out of over 300 million. I'd love to see the margin for error on that one.

and 75% white and 60% over 45 years old, meaning at least a quarter of those self identifying as moderate are liars.

[Lord Zentei]

The poll is also only 800 people. Out of over 300 million. I'd love to see the margin for error on that one.

The margin of error is not affected by the number of people in the total population. That's a common fallacy. The only thing that matters with respect to the margin of error is the number of people in the sample size. 800 is quite decent, actually.

The age disparity is more relevant, though it's more an issue of how this poll is different from previous ones with the same methodology.

[Grandmaster Jogurt]

The poll is also only 800 people. Out of over 300 million. I'd love to see the margin for error on that one.

Assuming a 95% confidence level and a random sampling, the error is .98/sqrt(800) = 3.5% (or 4.6% if you want to go to 99% confidence). This would be true if it were a sample out of 300 thousand people or 300 billion.

[Simon_Jester]

The real question isn't sample size so much as sample selection. If Block is right, and you're asking a population that is 75% white and 60% over 45 years old, you are not going to get answers that mirror the general views of the population.

[Block]

The real question isn't sample size so much as sample selection. If Block is right, and you're asking a population that is 75% white and 60% over 45 years old, you are not going to get answers that mirror the general views of the population.

Questions 12 and 13, where the people being polled are asked to self identify.

[Lord Zentei]

The real question isn't sample size so much as sample selection. If Block is right, and you're asking a population that is 75% white and 60% over 45 years old, you are not going to get answers that mirror the general views of the population.

It's 73%, and that is actually fairly close to the white population overall. The age thing is more important, though.


As an aside, it's entirely possible that this poll is bullshit; I posted it on account of the apparent significance of the result, which was not what I had gathered from other polls.

EDIT: after a bit of browsing, here's another poll from Quinnipiac University, which also shows a decline in OWS popularity.

[Block]

The real question isn't sample size so much as sample selection. If Block is right, and you're asking a population that is 75% white and 60% over 45 years old, you are not going to get answers that mirror the general views of the population.

It's 73%, and that is actually fairly close to the white population overall. The age thing is more important, though.


As an aside, it's entirely possible that this poll is bullshit; I posted it on account of the apparent significance of the result, which was not what I had gathered from other polls.

EDIT: after a bit of browsing, here's another poll from Quinnipiac University, which also shows a decline in OWS popularity.

63% of Americans are White as of 2010 according to Census.gov, just fyi.
edit: and that includes Arabs, etc. It's 73% white if you include all mixed race as whites.

[Lord Zentei]

Ah, yes: they counted Hispanics separately there.

[Soldier of Entropy]

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 12%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 15%
Moderate......................................................... 31%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 24%
Very conservative ........................................... 19%

I think this may be the key point. Combined, conservatives in this poll had a 16% lead over liberals, disregarding moderates. Unless I'm missing something, this seems to invalidate the poll's results as representative of the US.

[Lord Zentei]

You assume that liberals and conservatives are equal in number in the US. That is NOT the case, as the following poll from Gallup shows.

Also, there's the second poll I linked to which corroborates the fist poll.

The poll is from 2009, but the disparity is/was considerable: conservatives outnumber(ed) liberals by a whopping 20%. Unless there has been a sea change in how Americans self-identify with these political positions, the disparity you cite is not an issue.

linka

PRINCETON, NJ -- Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.

The 2009 data are based on 16 separate Gallup surveys conducted from January through September, encompassing more than 5,000 national adults per quarter. Conservatives have been the dominant ideological group each quarter, with between 39% and 41% of Americans identifying themselves as either "very conservative" or "conservative." Between 35% and 37% of Americans call themselves "moderate," while the percentage calling themselves "very liberal" or "liberal" has consistently registered between 20% and 21% -- making liberals the smallest of the three groups.

Independents Inch to the Right

Changes among political independents appear to be the main reason the percentage of conservatives has increased nationally over the past year: the 35% of independents describing their views as conservative in 2009 is up from 29% in 2008. By contrast, among Republicans and Democrats, the percentage who are "conservative" has increased by one point each.

As is typical in recent years, Republicans are far more unified in their political outlook than are either independents or Democrats. While 72% of Republicans in 2009 call their views conservative, independents are closely split between the moderate and conservative labels (43% and 35%, respectively). Democrats are about evenly divided between moderates (39%) and liberals (37%).

Americans Also Moving Right on Some Issues

In addition to the increase in conservatism on this general ideology measure, Gallup finds higher percentages of Americans expressing conservative views on several specific issues in 2009 than in 2008.

Perceptions that there is too much government regulation of business and industry jumped from 38% in September 2008 to 45% in September 2009.
The percentage of Americans saying they would like to see labor unions have less influence in the country rose from 32% in August 2008 to a record-high 42% in August 2009.
Public support for keeping the laws governing the sale of firearms the same or making them less strict rose from 49% in October 2008 to 55% in October 2009, also a record high. (The percentage saying the laws should become more strict -- the traditionally liberal position -- fell from 49% to 44%.)
The percentage of Americans favoring a decrease in immigration rose from 39% in June/July 2008 to 50% in July 2009.
The propensity to want the government to "promote traditional values" -- as opposed to "not favor any particular set of values" -- rose from 48% in 2008 to 53% in 2009. Current support for promoting traditional values is the highest seen in five years.
The percentage of Americans who consider themselves "pro-life" on abortion rose from 44% in May 2008 to 51% in May 2009, and remained at a slightly elevated 47% in July 2009.
Americans' belief that the global warming problem is "exaggerated" in the news rose from 35% in March 2008 to 41% in March 2009.

Gallup has not recorded heightened conservatism on all major social and political views held by Americans. For instance, attitudes on the death penalty, gay marriage, the Iraq war, and Afghanistan have stayed about the same since 2008. However, there are no major examples of U.S. public opinion becoming more liberal in the past year. (Gallup's annual trends on healthcare will be updated in November, so those attitudes are not included in this review.)

The conservative shifts discussed here result as much from changes in political independents' views as from changes in Republicans' views. Democrats' views, by contrast, have generally changed only slightly -- either to the conservative or liberal side -- with two exceptions: Gallup finds greater movement in Democrats' views of abortion, which have become more liberal, and their views of labor unions, which have become more conservative.

Issue Positions and Changes in Those Positions, 2008 vs. 2009 -- by Party ID

Bottom Line

Americans are more likely to consider themselves conservative this year than they were in 2008, resulting in conservatives -- now 40% of the American public -- outnumbering moderates for the first time since 2004. While Gallup first documented this trend in June, the finding has been sustained through the third quarter.

Conservatism is most prevalent among Republicans. However, the overall increase in this ideological stance since 2008 comes largely from political independents, among whom 35% say they are conservatives thus far in 2009 -- compared with 29% last year. Independents have also become more conservative on a number of specific policy issues, including government and union power, the role of government relative to promoting values, gun laws, immigration, global warming, and abortion. Republicans, most of whom considered themselves ideologically conservative in 2008, have also grown more conservative on several of these issues this year, while less change is seen among Democrats.

All of this has potentially important implications at the ballot box, particularly for the 2010 midterm elections. The question is whether increased conservatism, particularly among independents, will translate into heightened support for Republican candidates. Right now, it appears it may. Although Gallup polling continues to show the Democratic Party leading the Republican Party in Americans' party identification, that lead has been narrowing since the beginning of the year and now stands at six points, the smallest since 2005. According to Gallup Managing Editor Jeff Jones, "the Democratic-Republican gap is narrowing because more independents now say they lean to the Republican Party." That trend aligns with the recent changes in how independents perceive their own ideology and where they stand on some key issues.

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Survey Methods

The 2009 political ideology results reported here are based on 16 aggregated Gallup surveys conducted from January to September 2009. For results based on the total sample of 16,321 national adults, aged 18 and older, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[Simon_Jester]

Personally, I've largely given up on trying to interpret polls; while the individual polls may very well (often are) carried out competently and in good faith, the overall effect feels like trying to get good advice out of an astrologer.

One day 75% of Americans want universal health care, the next day it's 30%, or no that was some entirely different scheme they're talking about... The problem of taking all the data and putting them through a credible interpretation, analysis, and synthesis is beyond me.

[Lord Zentei]

It really depends on whether the poll was taken by a respectable institution.