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Scottish Ninja wrote:The whole American situation is getting a bit confusing - is there a map that we can see? It's a bit hard to keep track of what's what right now.

Without attempting to superscede Marina here is the short version:

North America is basically in two armed camps: The FedGov and the FSU. The FSU originally held essentially the entire confederacy (after having brutally supressed a counter-rebellion in Florida) along with a good portion of the mountain west (originally including Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, The Dakotas, Montana, Kanasa, Nebraska, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Kentucky. They also hold portions of Missouri, Indiana, Ohio and West Virginia. The other camp, tFedGov, consists of the remaining US states along with Canada minus Saskatchewan. This includes Hawaii and Alaska the later of which serves as an entry point for the rail line which crosses the Bering Sea (rising sea levels have made it more a sea than a straight)

In the Western theater a multi prong offensive has secured Arizone and Utah as well as Idaho while threatening Colorado and Montana. The Army fo the west commanded by Cathrine Tang is currently poised to envelope Denver and open a new flank against the FSU.

In the MidWest the FSU is driving through Iowa towards the Twin Cities while FedGov remains fixated on reducing the FSU garrison in Gary IN which seperates Chicago (and the rest of the MidWest) from the Eastern states. Offensives in what used to be Canada have reclaimed all that territory for the FedGov (and containing the only currently operational TransCon railroad in their control).

In the East there is an uneasy seige/stalemate around the Potomac river basin. The FSU (principally Virginian troops) has seized a portion of Maryland and continues to attempt to encircle Washington. The city itself retains some administrative functions however the national government being in Albany means that the remaining institutions are those lower in the priority grapevine. I'm currently working with Marina to better elucidate the situation here.

So that would be a quick and dirty summary of the geopolitical situaiton in the former US and Canada.

It's also important to note that the Eastern American parts of the FedGov are by far the most brutal. The Quebec government (which more or less controls the other eastern Canadian provinces) is more or less just state socialism not particularly worse than, say, Yugoslavia in the 1980s; China in the 1980s is equally apt for what the Western territories are like, the midwest is, well, they don't even really care about ideology, they're desperately fighting for survival. The eastern United States is by far the worst, with the security personnel more like gangs and the political leadership distinctly trending toward Stalinism. There are more than a few factions and power-plays in the FedGov. They all, however, favour a unitary, centralized state.

The FSU, on the other hand, isn't even a government, it's an alliance of Free States operating under emergency military directives, so that in wartime it's about as unified as the Confederacy, but if they survive it would be even less unified than that, it would be more like the USA under the Articles of Confederation. That's why you can have fairly reasonable states like Virginia that treat POWs well and then turn around and be facing troops from God's Will states who will burn captured homosexuals, pagans, etc, alive or drown them in a river.

And, thank you, Gil. That was exactly the sort of thing we needed, and what I hope to see from Wilkins soon, as well as Amy--Mayabird--who has three planned posts.

The next post of mine will be set in Festung Israel.

Global Peak just turned into a franchise.

Incidentally, it's good to see a new update for this. Gil's work seemed perfectly 'in-tune' with what the Duchess had put together previously. It will be interesting to see what Mayabird pumps out (three posts!) and Wilkins too. Hearing about Israel being the next location is pretty cool as well. I know incessant warfare in the Middle East isn't exactly new, but what the hell.

Marina, unless I'm mistaken, Israel is screwed so hard it's not even funny. The amount of arable land here(while constantly growing) is not enough to feed anything near the population, the water is simply going to be gone in 10 years and Jordan is another 3 million people dependent on Israel.

Israel would basically end up being West Bank + Judean Mountains controlling the arable farm land in the Galil.

Ace Pace wrote:Marina, unless I'm mistaken, Israel is screwed so hard it's not even funny. The amount of arable land here(while constantly growing) is not enough to feed anything near the population, the water is simply going to be gone in 10 years and Jordan is another 3 million people dependent on Israel.

Israel would basically end up being West Bank + Judean Mountains controlling the arable farm land in the Galil.

Actually, you're a net exporter of food. The problem is less your own country (though you really need nuclear powered desalination, and fast) but the hoards of Arabs who will be starving to death when their countries no longer have oil revenue to import food. By 2040 something like 60% of the food consumed in the Arab world will be imported; can you imagine what things are going to be like when that's gone? And you'll be sitting there, well, not well, but with enough food to eat.

They'll be rather... Envious.

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:They'll be rather... Envious.

I don't think there's much they could do about that envy though. Israel will just drop an atom bomb or three on any army the Arabs can throw together. Then again, it's possible that the Arabs can raise more armies than Israel can nuke, that would be a problem.

Also, isn't Egypt the exception to the "Arabs import food" rule? I'm pretty sure their farms along the Nile can more or less sustain them. That would make for an interesting situation. On the one hand Egypt is pretty much the bastion of Arab nationalism, on the other hand I don't see them wanting hordes hungry of foreign Arabs entering their country any more than Israel does. It's possible they could become allied with Israel, and combine their forces in an attempt to maintain their respective territorial integrities. The gigantic Egyptian stockpile of chemical weapons would certainly be useful as a force multiplier.

Ford Prefect wrote:Global Peak just turned into a franchise.

Incidentally, it's good to see a new update for this. Gil's work seemed perfectly 'in-tune' with what the Duchess had put together previously. It will be interesting to see what Mayabird pumps out (three posts!) and Wilkins too. Hearing about Israel being the next location is pretty cool as well. I know incessant warfare in the Middle East isn't exactly new, but what the hell.

Note: when she mentioned three posts, she's leaving out my one completed one that'll be set a decade or so in the future and is waiting for the story to catch up to it. Also, only expect two of them to be completed anytime soonish. I'm a little stuck on the third about what should happen, because it's a bit too info-dumpy right now.

Also, to Adrian: I don't know if Marina has decided if the Aswan High Dam has been destroyed or not. That would definitely screw over Egypt.

Adrian Laguna wrote:

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:They'll be rather... Envious.

I don't think there's much they could do about that envy though. Israel will just drop an atom bomb or three on any army the Arabs can throw together. Then again, it's possible that the Arabs can raise more armies than Israel can nuke, that would be a problem.

Also, isn't Egypt the exception to the "Arabs import food" rule? I'm pretty sure their farms along the Nile can more or less sustain them. That would make for an interesting situation. On the one hand Egypt is pretty much the bastion of Arab nationalism, on the other hand I don't see them wanting hordes hungry of foreign Arabs entering their country any more than Israel does. It's possible they could become allied with Israel, and combine their forces in an attempt to maintain their respective territorial integrities. The gigantic Egyptian stockpile of chemical weapons would certainly be useful as a force multiplier.

Egypt is again importing food due to ludicrous population growth, even though it still produces a fair amount of it. There are food riots in Egypt right now and rationing, Adrian. Worse yet, Egypt is dependent on the Monsoon for its agriculture (i.e., the water of the Nile), and with global warming happening....


Basically there's going to be 300 million or so Arabs starving to death as soon as the mid-east runs out of oil and we stop shipping them food due to our own problems. And these hordes of refugees will threatening to simply overwhelm other countries in the region which can still feed themselves, like some kind of Fall-of-the-Roman Empire Völkerwanderung--with a third of a billion men, women, and children, infiltrating through your borders and covering your nation like a plague of locusts.

This is going to happen no matter what in the next few decades, and the only solution will be the genocide of the refugees. Not because it's moral--it isn't--but because it will be like the exact same analogy as if you're swimming and keeping your head above water, and the drowning person next to you grabs you to try and stay afloat. Both of you drown. So the only solution is to kick him away from you, which makes him drown faster but gives you a fighting chance. Soon many nations will be forced to make that choice...

The Duchess of Zeon wrote: Egypt is again importing food due to ludicrous population growth, even though it still produces a fair amount of it. There are food riots in Egypt right now and rationing, Adrian. Worse yet, Egypt is dependent on the Monsoon for its agriculture (i.e., the water of the Nile), and with global warming happening....

The farmland along the Nile is already being badly fucked over by the Aswan dam, which blocks silt and is thus preventing replenishment of the soil. Ending those seasonal floods is not without its price. The lack of silt also means that the Nile Delta is starting to disappear both from erosion and rising sea level. That delta contains something like 1/3 to 1/2 of the nation’s useable farmland and by 2040 it will have lost a very significant chunk of its land area.

I think it'll be interesting just how screwed up Africa becomes. If a state doesn't have mineral or petrochemical wealth, no one is going to care about them. I could see Africa reduced to a scattering of real states along the coasts and from historical precedent (the Ethiopians may have a huge hunger problem, but culturally, there is such a thing as Ethiopia and it will persist), while most of the continent descends into open warlordism and chieftancy-level sophistication. Maybe after all is done and over with, disease and primitive war will have reduced Africa to a state of pseudo-pre-colonialism. I imagine the surviving and recovering states might wish tighter control over a continent of lower population density, fallow (from genocide and starvation) fields, and abandoned mineral resources.

How bad is China? Outright war? Mass genocide? And India?

Illuminatus Primus wrote:I think it'll be interesting just how screwed up Africa becomes. If a state doesn't have mineral or petrochemical wealth, no one is going to care about them. I could see Africa reduced to a scattering of real states along the coasts and from historical precedent (the Ethiopians may have a huge hunger problem, but culturally, there is such a thing as Ethiopia and it will persist), while most of the continent descends into open warlordism and chieftancy-level sophistication. Maybe after all is done and over with, disease and primitive war will have reduced Africa to a state of pseudo-pre-colonialism. I imagine the surviving and recovering states might wish tighter control over a continent of lower population density, fallow (from genocide and starvation) fields, and abandoned mineral resources.

How bad is China? Outright war? Mass genocide? And India?

Ever heard of this minor little spat in Europe called the Thirty Years' War?

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:Egypt is again importing food due to ludicrous population growth, even though it still produces a fair amount of it. There are food riots in Egypt right now and rationing, Adrian. Worse yet, Egypt is dependent on the Monsoon for its agriculture (i.e., the water of the Nile), and with global warming happening....

Oh, never mind on my post then. They'll probably be first in line to invade Israel. But hey, look at the bright side, after Israel groundbursts a nuclear device on the base of a certain damn, Egypt's overpopulation problem will solve itself.

This is going to happen no matter what in the next few decades, and the only solution will be the genocide of the refugees. Not because it's moral--it isn't--but because it will be like the exact same analogy as if you're swimming and keeping your head above water, and the drowning person next to you grabs you to try and stay afloat. Both of you drown. So the only solution is to kick him away from you, which makes him drown faster but gives you a fighting chance.

The way I see it, you analogy disproves your assertion that slaughtering the refugees is immoral. It is my beliefs that self-preservation, and I mean it in a sense that goes beyond the individual, is the ultimate all-overriding moral concern, everything else is secondary.

Ever heard of this minor little spat in Europe called the Thirty Years' War?

That will be India, obviously, the Chinese are much too unified for that. Though they'll probably have to dump some of their territory in West, and follow MacArthur's advice re: the Korean border.

Adrian Laguna wrote:

The Duchess of Zeon wrote:Egypt is again importing food due to ludicrous population growth, even though it still produces a fair amount of it. There are food riots in Egypt right now and rationing, Adrian. Worse yet, Egypt is dependent on the Monsoon for its agriculture (i.e., the water of the Nile), and with global warming happening....

Oh, never mind on my post then. They'll probably be first in line to invade Israel. But hey, look at the bright side, after Israel groundbursts a nuclear device on the base of a certain damn, Egypt's overpopulation problem will solve itself.

Given the Samson complex, I wouldn't be surprised if Israel only survives because they have told the other nations that they will detonate warheads at the center of the agricultural regions. If those regions fall, the winners get an atomic sunrise.

Maybe it should be called the 'spoiled brat' complex instead?

Is this story going to take into account the possible rise of Brazil, thanks to the recent oil field discoveries there?

Adrian Laguna wrote:That will be India, obviously, the Chinese are much too unified for that. Though they'll probably have to dump some of their territory in West, and follow MacArthur's advice re: the Korean border.

Uighurs, peasants, Eastern Lightning, Falun Gong, unregistered churches, Tibet. Surely they'd all get weapons somehow.

How would India fall apart, though? As huge and heterogeneous the population is, they've managed to hang together for decades. In what ways will they fracture?

Battlehymn Republic wrote:Uighurs, peasants, Eastern Lightning, Falun Gong, unregistered churches, Tibet. Surely they'd all get weapons somehow.

Tibet stops being a problem the moment China stops caring about foreign public opinion, or foreign public opinion stops caring about China. The Uighurs are the Western provinces I suggest the Chinese may have to dump. Falun Gong and unregistered churches are hilariously small non-issues. Unruly peasants could be a problem, except for the part were the PLA has guns and they don't.

How would India fall apart, though? As huge and heterogeneous the population is, they've managed to hang together for decades. In what ways will they fracture?

India has more Muslims than Pakistan. Hence the comparison to the Thirty Years War, which can be summarized as Protestant and Catholic German Princes beating the shit out of each other while neighbouring powers gleefully add fuel to the fire.

India has more Muslims than Pakistan. Hence the comparison to the Thirty Years War, which can be summarized as Protestant and Catholic German Princes beating the shit out of each other while neighbouring powers gleefully add fuel to the fire.

However Kashmaris != all Indian muslims. The fact that much of the islamic terrorism India face comes from across the border instead of local muslims should tell you something. If India breaks it will be due to other reasons. Like obscenely wasteful consumerism and class divide for example.

Sarevok wrote:

India has more Muslims than Pakistan. Hence the comparison to the Thirty Years War, which can be summarized as Protestant and Catholic German Princes beating the shit out of each other while neighbouring powers gleefully add fuel to the fire.

However Kashmaris != all Indian muslims. The fact that much of the islamic terrorism India face comes from across the border instead of local muslims should tell you something. If India breaks it will be due to other reasons. Like obscenely wasteful consumerism and class divide for example.

Yes, that's how it will start. Sectarian division will follow (aided on by military conflict with Muslim countries).

I'm just curious as to where the Sikhs will fall into it. They were the British loyalists during the Sepoy Rebellions, weren't they? And some of their extremists are still acting up and calling for an independent state. Yet right now Sikhs basically dominate the Indian armed forces, from what I understand. Powerful minority.

Battlehymn Republic wrote:I'm just curious as to where the Sikhs will fall into it. They were the British loyalists during the Sepoy Rebellions, weren't they? And some of their extremists are still acting up and calling for an independent state. Yet right now Sikhs basically dominate the Indian armed forces, from what I understand. Powerful minority.

Perhaps again the Khalsa Army shall march...

China is going to have major peasant revolt issues, just like the fall of many previous Chinese dynasties. That and a more powerful Russia looking to keep its resource-rich and sparsely populated Siberia to itself; plus with its immense power and likely starving Chinese immigration - a war might go their way. Perhaps Port Arthur will fly the flag of the Russian Federation once more? And then Japan, which has horrid population issues and food problems might go naval and land grap the mainland, just like before. Except this time the U.S. is too messed up to bother.

I thought Japan was in worse shape than Britain?

China might just decide to march south into South East Asia or something, where the nations there won't be as strong as Russia by any means.

What happened to Australia and Korea?

About the nukes thing and the FedGov, do the FSU have nukes? I mean, it is logical that they would seize federal properties on their states.

Pelranius wrote:I thought Japan was in worse shape than Britain?

China might just decide to march south into South East Asia or something, where the nations there won't be as strong as Russia by any means.

What happened to Australia and Korea?

Australia has been covered already. As for Russia, maybe they won't go south except to control sea lanes in general; they don't NEED the port because Vladivostok is now as good as Port Arthur, thanks to climate change.

Right. I remember the armored trains now.

It seems more logical for China to go south anyways. Myanmar and Vietnam grow a lot of rice (though I can't really see China running out of food, since their agriculture isn't very energy intensive and most of their current imports are for meat.