This thread has already been HoSed, but I had already planned on making an effort to bring some actual numbers and data to the table, so what the hell.
No country I'm aware of has a policy of legalization for "hard" drugs like cocaine, heroin, meth, etc. Most don't even allow marijuana for anything more than medical use. This means that real data is extremely scarce.
About the best I've been able to find has already been posted - the drug policy of the Netherlands.
In the Netherlands, drugs are
not legal, including cannabis. Instead, the Netherlands has a general policy of non-enforcement surrounding cannabis - technically it's illegal, but the law is not strictly enforced. Imports/exports of large quantities of marijuana (or any quantity of other drugs) are not allowed. Growing up to 5 cannabis plants will not result in criminal prosecution, but the plants will need to be surrendered if discovered.
Clearly this isn't an excellent example for the legalization of drugs in the US, since even cannabis is still technically illegal (preventing large-scale commercial production, etc). It does, however, help to illustrate what
partial legalization means.
This is from the Wiki article on the drug policy of the Netherlands:
Wiki wrote:In the Netherlands 9.7% of young adults (aged 15-24) consume soft drugs once a month, comparable to the level in Italy (10.9%) and Germany (9.9%) and less than in the UK (15.8%) and Spain (16.4%),[17] but much higher than in, for example, Sweden (3%), Finland or Greece.[3]
Cannabis use seems to remauin comparable to nations where prohibition is still enforced, being actually significantly lower than the rate in the UK and Spain (though still significantly higher than other countries, as mentioned above). I would conclude that this means ending the enforcement of prohibition against marijuana did not meaningfully affect the rate of its use. This may or may not be applicable to "harder" drugs - with no examples to work from, this is the best data I have available.
Dutch rates of drug use are lower than U.S. rates in every category.[18] The monthly prevalence of drugs other than cannabis among young people (15-24) was 4% in 2004, that was above the average (3%) of 15 compared countries in EU. However, seemingly few transcend to becoming problem drug users (0.3%), well below the average (0.52%) of the same compared countries.[3]
I have no idea how "problem drug users" is defined. It may mean drug users who commit a violent crime, or drug users who overdose, or any number of other things. However, the fact that the rate of "problem drug users" in the Netherlands is
almost half that of other nations is telling. It would seem that, for this piece of the puzzle at least, the correlation suggests that non-enforcement of anti-marijuana laws reduces net harm in the form of reducing the rate of "problem drug users." This may be due to the easy availability of marijuana compared to "hard" drugs (legalizing the "safer" drug while prohibiting the rest would create an incentive to stick with the "safer" drug), in which case this is an argument for legalization of
some but not
all drugs depending on which are determined to be "safe enough" to control through government regulation. It may also be due to any number of other factors, and the correlation could also be incidental - there is insufficient data in this article to make a solid conclusion.
The reported number of deaths linked to the use of drugs in the Netherlands, as a proportion of the entire population, is lower than the EU average.[19]
This is a significant factor - but again, the Netherlands only permits the use of marijuana, and so it's difficult to say (from this data alone) whether legalization of other drugs would in fact reduce drug-related deaths.
I would still maintain that legalization and regulation would drastically reduce the incidence of cutting drugs with even more unsafe substances (as in my earlier example of coke cut with Comet), as well as the incidence of accidental overdose from varying product purity/concentration. We've seen that government regulation efforts have been successful in regulating the content and potency of alcohol, focusing on a strategy of clear and accurate labelling so that the consumer knows what he/she is getting into (where currently with unregulated drugs you may be used to drinking beer but instead have a bottle of vodka, to use an alcohol-based analogy). This is extremely likely to reduce deaths as a percentage of total drug users
if those users maintain current consumption rates. Legalization could
potentially also result in a significant increase in total drug users; with no examples or studies to draw a conclusion from, it's impossible to say whether total drug-related deaths would be increased, decreased, or remain the same.
The Dutch government is able to support approximately 90% of help-seeking addicts with detoxification programs. Treatment demand is rising.[20]
Apparently many addicts int eh Netherlands actively seek out their own treatment programs. No data is given as to how successful these programs are in preventing future drug use.
Criminal investigations into more serious forms of organized crime mainly involve drugs (72%). Most of these are investigations of hard drug crime (specifically cocaine and synthetic drugs) although the number of soft drug cases is rising and currently accounts for 41% of criminal investigations.
Clearly, partial legalization (or at least the non-enforcement of marijuana use) does not accomplish the goal of eliminating the black market. This can only be accomplished by providing legal avenues to obtain the drugs that the cartels currently maintain a monopoly on. It's possible that partial legalization of only certain drugs may cut off the cartel's cash flow sufficiently to bring the problem down to a more manageable level withotu legalizing
all drugs, but without any further data this is all conjecture.
This data also demonstrates that simple non-enforcement for minor marijuana offenses still allows for a "soft-drug" based black market, since 41% of criminal investigations in the Netherlands are still "soft-drug" related. True legalization of marijuana would eliminate this statistic, since obviously no criminal investigation is necessary if the substance in question is no longer criminal.
It can be concluded that partial legalization (or more accurately non-enforcement of minor "soft drug" offenses) does
not accomplish the goal of eliminating black market drug activity. This means that drug violence is not significantly reduced in terms of the producers/distributors. It is unknown (from this data) whether full legalization of some or all currently illegal drugs would be successful in eliminating the drug-based black market. The end of alcohol Prohibition in the US, however, seems to indicate that at best the drug cartels would lose their source of revenue quickly and be crippled or destroyed, and at worst would find a new illicit product to continue with.
It can be concluded that non-enforcement of minor "soft-drug" offenses has a correlation with significantly reduced "problem drug users" as well as drug-related deaths, and does not seem to significantly affect the total rate of usage for "soft drugs." This is
suggestive but not
conclusive that a similar policy of non-enforcement (or even full legalization) for other drugs
may have a similar effect.
I would say that given these two conclusions, further study is justified.
Given that we
know that current drug policy in teh US is
not working and is in fact directly causing a number of social ills including (but not limited to):
1) a disproportionate percentage of citizens are incarcerated
2) illegal substances are compeltely unregulated, causing similar results to the moonshine of Prohibition
3) a massive expenditure in time and resources fighting a "war" that cannot be won, and has not proven to be successful in even
reducing the problems
4) the creation of massive drug cartels who are even now violently threatening towns and cities just across the southern US border
5) ineffectual policies whose intent is to reduce drug usage (ie, prison doesn't stop drug use)
...it is reasonable to tentatively conclude that legalization (partial or full) may be a promising solution that may lead to lower net harm to society by resulting in the following:
1) a significant portion of nonviolent drug-related inmates being freed from incarceration to return as productive members (or at least not
dangerous members) of society
2) regulation of some or all currently illegal and uncontrolled substances resulting in fewer accidental overdoses and cutting with toxic substances as a percentage of total drug users
3) significant savings in manpower and resources that are no longer directed towards ineffective enforcement policies and which can now be used to fund massive educational anti-drug campaigns with the same proven strategies used against tobacco, while simultaneously generating significant tax revenue and generating legitimate business in a time of economic crisis
4) reduction or elimination of the drug cartels by cutting off some or all of their funding, making not only the US safer, but also those countries in which the drug cartels primarily operate, and eliminating situations like the current fiasco in Mexico
5) more effective policies put into place to reduce drug use, such as additional public funding for treatment programs instead of prisons and the DEA
It is also possible that partial or full legalization would result in higher total rates of drug use, and/or increased consumption amongst current drug users, which may dilute or even overcome any advantages gained.
That said, I think that the potential benefits outweigh the potential drawbacks, and that further study at the least is justified.
Given the current general mindset in the US surrounding drug use, I'm doubtful that full legalization will gain enough momentum to be successful any time soon. However, true legalization of marijuana alone is a potential testbed for legalization for the rest. While there are significant differences between marijuana usage and "hard" drug usage, it would at least provide
some additional data, and legalization of marijuana has a far, far greater likelihood of becoming a reality.
I'm sure this will be mostly ignored in the HoS, but at least I get to feel like I provided a more reasoned analysis of some actual data rather than running with the opinions espoused in an editorial.