A forced choice....

[haas mark]

If you have a premonition that tells you that he is going to kill x many people (I forgot the figure), then even if you take the shot, that would mean he (A) wouldn't die, or (B) somehow get revived. THus, Bean, your argument is flawed. The massacre WILL take place. If the omniscient ones, as we will call them, tell you that he will do this, then he will do this no matter what. Especially because they happen to be omnipotent, too.

[Ghost Rider]

The same could be said if you knew what Hitler was going to do what he would do.

While the choice is so huge and seriously you couldn't figure what the ramifications of what you do would do, I believe the pain of letting ten million die would be greater...

I would never live with myself for killing one man, but the thought that I allowed ten million die because of my own selfishness, I would more than likely kill myself right there.

[Larz]

One could try talking to him... attempt that "take one for the Kipper" speech that would forever change his life. Threatening is an option that doesn't seem like it would help rather than add more anger. So the choices that garauntee some resolution stand on the morals and values of the individual with the gun. Are you a nihilist who cares only for the one or a philanthropist willing to give the all for the better of mankind. Its the hardest moral question one can face. Hmm, I'll have to turn that over in my mind for a while before answering...

[salm]

i´d shoot him.
this is different from killing all fundies though since most fundies dont kill people.
if i´m sure that the only way of saving the 10 million people is shooting the guy who is going to commit the crime i´d shoot him.

[Asst. Asst. Lt. Cmdr. Smi]

I wouldn't take my chances. I'd find some sneaky way to frame him, and keep him from going back to his home country.

[NecronLord]

I'd hunt him down at some more opportune time and kill him then.

[Andrew J.]

I'd "accidentally" knock him into traffic, and quietly slip away while everyone is staring at the pileup.

[Pu-239]

Who knows? Maybe amoung those 10 million is a potential worse genocidal maniac? Then again who cares I'll just shoot him, then myself to avoid the authorities, since the world is going to shit in 50 years anyways.

[Darth Yoshi]

I'll offer to take him to the donut shop and as we're wating to cross the street, I'll slip and push into the traffic.

[neoolong]

If you have a premonition that tells you that he is going to kill x many people (I forgot the figure), then even if you take the shot, that would mean he (A) wouldn't die, or (B) somehow get revived. THus, Bean, your argument is flawed. The massacre WILL take place. If the omniscient ones, as we will call them, tell you that he will do this, then he will do this no matter what. Especially because they happen to be omnipotent, too.

If I roll a ball off of a table and you get catch it, why did you catch it? Because it was going to fall. But it didn't fall. You knew what the future was but you changed it. You knew with pretty much certainty what would happen and you were able to change it. Thus you knew the future, but still could change it.

Yes, this is pulled from Minority Report.

[data_link]

If you have a premonition that tells you that he is going to kill x many people (I forgot the figure), then even if you take the shot, that would mean he (A) wouldn't die, or (B) somehow get revived. THus, Bean, your argument is flawed. The massacre WILL take place. If the omniscient ones, as we will call them, tell you that he will do this, then he will do this no matter what. Especially because they happen to be omnipotent, too.

If I roll a ball off of a table and you get catch it, why did you catch it? Because it was going to fall. But it didn't fall. You knew what the future was but you changed it. You knew with pretty much certainty what would happen and you were able to change it. Thus you knew the future, but still could change it.

Yes, this is pulled from Minority Report.

Best line in the whole movie. Correction - only good line in the whole movie.

[Guest]

This scenario is like the movie Dead Zone. I think that is what its name is?

[Andrew J.]

I'll offer to take him to the donut shop and as we're wating to cross the street, I'll slip and push into the traffic.

You knicked my idea, you barstard.

[haas mark]

If you have a premonition that tells you that he is going to kill x many people (I forgot the figure), then even if you take the shot, that would mean he (A) wouldn't die, or (B) somehow get revived. THus, Bean, your argument is flawed. The massacre WILL take place. If the omniscient ones, as we will call them, tell you that he will do this, then he will do this no matter what. Especially because they happen to be omnipotent, too.

If I roll a ball off of a table and you get catch it, why did you catch it? Because it was going to fall. But it didn't fall. You knew what the future was but you changed it. You knew with pretty much certainty what would happen and you were able to change it. Thus you knew the future, but still could change it.

Yes, this is pulled from Minority Report.

FIrst, the ball already fell. I was preventing it from hitting the floor. Second, I have not seen the first half of the movie....the part that includes that line.

[Nick]

OK, the problem as I see it is that you know that, if this guy lives, he will be responsible for the deaths of 10 million people (going with Bean's description of the situation).

You don't know what will happen if the guy doesn't live.

So, you are left with the quandary confronted in the Terminator movies and in the novel "Making History" by Stephen Fry.

However, in these two stories the issue is confronted by preventing the construction of SkyNet or the birth of Adolf Hitler.

In the Terminator movies, we never get to see how the "unknown future" pans out. In the Stephen Fry novel, we do get to see it - and its worse. Firstly, it conjectures a rival that Hitler arranged an 'accident' for - a rival who turned out to be a more capable leader who held many of the same attitudes. This leader avoided many of the mistakes Hitler made, and essentially won World War 2. Secondly, the means used to prevent Hitler's birth allowed this alternate timeline access to a perfect contraceptive - this was used by the alternate Germans to render Jews sterile, providing perfect genocide, without the gas chambers.

Essentially, the point being advanced by the book (similar in many ways to the Back To The Future movies) is that acting to change a known bad future may have unintended consequences. The result may be better, but it may also be worse - we can't know. Any decision theorist will tell you that, under these circumstances, the best idea is to assign equal probability to all of the possible outcomes.

Hence, we construct a nine-part decision matrix, based on the combinations of the following actions:

• Try to kill him
• Walk away

with the following outcomes:

• The actual future is equally as bad as the prediction (possibly because you failed to kill him and the prediction comes true)
• The actual future turns out to be better (yay!)
• The actual future turns out to be worse (bummer )

Let us assign values of -X to the predicted outcome, +A*X to a better future and -B*X to a worse future (Using variables instead of numbers is important - you will see why later).

In addition, we can assign -Y to the major problem with actually killing the guy: you have committed murder. The fact that you are going to get caught doing so is (or should be) a secondary concern - however, this can be factored into the value of Y.

Now, one other point to be addressed - it is clear that you have the power to alter the future. What if the future you have seen is one in which someone tried to assasinate this guy just before he returned to Elbonia? This fed his sense of paranoia, and was the final straw that tipped him over the line into atrocity. Perhaps the way for you to change the future is actually to walk away. Then again, perhaps the fear of assassination acted as a brake on the guy - so, by walking away, you will actually make the future worse. Hence, all three outcomes are possible, regardless of the course of action you choose.

This means that the expected outcomes for the available courses of action are as follows:
Try to kill him: -X + A*X -B*X - Y
Walk away: -X + A*X - B*X

I walk away. Sucks to be Elbonian.

EDIT: Fixed a missing bracket in the BBCode for the second list.

[Nick]

A few other points. . .

1. Make sure your answer to this question is consistent with your views on the justifiability of political assassinations, as this scenario is even more morally dubious (at least with an assassination you have actual past crimes, rather than hypothetical future crimes).

2. Just because you choose not to shoot the guy, doesn't mean you have lost your ability to manipulate the future, nor does it let you off the moral hook. Hence, you can continue to do everything in your power to try to prevent that future from happening.

3. If I was that certain of something I had no evidence for in the real world, I'd be checking myself into a mental hospital, not contemplating shooting people in the back. That kind of certainty is far more likely to be delusional than anything else.

[aerius]

I wouldn't take my chances. I'd find some sneaky way to frame him, and keep him from going back to his home country.

Talk to him, and while he's distracted plant the 9mm that I have in his luggage somewhere. Airport security should take care of the rest. That's if I wanted to stop him without killing him. The deaths of 10 million anonymous people in a country I barely know of probably won't result in any lost sleep for me. It would be nice if they could be saved, but I don't know what the results will be if I take an action that saves them. So...I'm heading to the donut shop for breakfast and writing the situation off as a bad dream, someone else can play god cause I sure don't care to.

[David]

How exactly does he kill the people?


If he builds a bomb to blow up a dam, and the resulting flood kills everyone in a large city, it would make a tremendous difference if he died. In this case he might be one person acting alone or in a small group.

On the other hand, if he turns out to be some leader of a revolution or something, that would say that conditions in this supposed country are ripe for him to take power. Like in the Stephen Fry novel, it would be possible that killing him would make no difference, and another leader ( possibly even worse) might take advantage of these conditions and assume his place.

You might as well ask, what would happen if Osama bin Ladin died before Septemeber 11, 2001? While he most certainly has provided the backbone for his movement, whether or not his death would make a difference in history depends on how far back you went to kill him. Even killing him a few years before might not have made any difference, his operations were already set up and paid for. Plus, in his case, conditions were ripe for him to take charge of his movement. It would be entirely possible that someone else would have assumed his position.

[neoolong]

If you have a premonition that tells you that he is going to kill x many people (I forgot the figure), then even if you take the shot, that would mean he (A) wouldn't die, or (B) somehow get revived. THus, Bean, your argument is flawed. The massacre WILL take place. If the omniscient ones, as we will call them, tell you that he will do this, then he will do this no matter what. Especially because they happen to be omnipotent, too.

If I roll a ball off of a table and you get catch it, why did you catch it? Because it was going to fall. But it didn't fall. You knew what the future was but you changed it. You knew with pretty much certainty what would happen and you were able to change it. Thus you knew the future, but still could change it.

Yes, this is pulled from Minority Report.

FIrst, the ball already fell. I was preventing it from hitting the floor. Second, I have not seen the first half of the movie....the part that includes that line.

Okay, as it's rolling to the edge of the table. And I was just giving credit to where I pulled it from. Wouldn't want to plagiarize.

[haas mark]

FIrst, the ball already fell. I was preventing it from hitting the floor. Second, I have not seen the first half of the movie....the part that includes that line.

Okay, as it's rolling to the edge of the table. And I was just giving credit to where I pulled it from. Wouldn't want to plagiarize.

lol, well, I just don't like balls hitting the floor. Just a matter of reaction.