StarDestroyer.Net BBS

Couple of pieces of information:

1. ST:X cost $70 million

2. Advertising costs an average of $31 million, ST:X probably paid closer to $40 million.

3. The studio gets roughly 55% of the Box Office. So to break even ST:X needs to make ~ $200 million domestically, $250 - $300 overall.

4. Overseas B.O. for ST films have been bad. Very bad. Less than 25% of the domestic B.O. Overseas B.O. might not cover overseas advertising.

5. DVD sales tend to make less than 40% of the B.O. And it adds to the cost of the movie not accounted for above.

6. Rentals are even worse than DVD sales. Roughly 20%

Totals:

Domestic: $75 million (and that's generous.)
Overseas: $37.5 million (Double the average %)
DVD Sales: $50 million (60% move than average %)
Rentals: $25 million (60% move than average %)

Total: $187.5 million.

Conclusion: ST:X won't make money, unless someone is fixing the books.

Good. Maybe they'll finally hold B&B responsible and can them.

Or they'll just can the whole franchise.

Another update: Weekend prediction has dropped from $20.5 million to $18.75 million. ~15% less than Insurrection. If it has the same legs as Insurrection it will result in a total box office of $60 million.

And look J. Lo's new movie, Maid in Manhattan, has just beat Nemesis.

http://movies.yahoo.com/movies/feature/ ... ficer.html

Stick a fork in this turkey. It is done.

Outgrossed on opening weekend by Maid In Manhatten —a brainless 50s style comedy. That is a very bad sign.

When my girlfriend and I went to the local multiplex, there was no crowd waiting for Nemesis and we were told that there was still good seating available for the show. The theatre was fairly packed but not SRO as had been the case in the past. Furthermore, I saw only one person wearing a TOS shirt over bluejeans. Not even one full costume. And the only big crowd I saw waiting in a queue was for the movie Drumbeat.

I think that is about the biggest crowd I will ever see for this movie, and I'm not planning to make a second show.

We will see the boxoffice drop off on a curve. Frankly, I don't forsee a lot of repeat attendance for this one and that's going to depress the numbers even further. At this point, I give Nemesis five weeks maximum, with a domestic defecit of $15M. If it ends up eking out a weak profit at all, it will be only in its final week of foreign release, because it's sure as hell not going to break even here in the 'States.

Haven't seen it, don't plan to. I'll wait till I can rent it at Blockbuster.

Darth Wong wrote:Haven't seen it, don't plan to. I'll wait till I can rent it at Blockbuster.

Should be around the end of February, then.

Patrick Degan wrote:Frankly, I don't forsee a lot of repeat attendance for this one and that's going to depress the numbers even further. At this point, I give Nemesis five weeks maximum, with a domestic defecit of $15M. If it ends up eking out a weak profit at all, it will be only in its final week of foreign release, because it's sure as hell not going to break even here in the 'States.

Yes. A very steep curve. Now it has to compete with LotR. LMAO!

If this movie got owned by a chick-flick on its opening weekend, it has no chance against Peter Jackson and New Line.

Darth Wong wrote:Haven't seen it, don't plan to. I'll wait till I can rent it at Blockbuster.

Darth Wong, don't you have any concept of value? At Hollywood Video, you can rent new releases for five days.

As for Nemesis on video, I'm going to bet on a March or April release. I predict that it will do reasonably well in DVD sales, but it won't out-rent whatever kiddy movie comes out that month.

Robert Treder wrote:

Darth Wong wrote:Haven't seen it, don't plan to. I'll wait till I can rent it at Blockbuster.

Darth Wong, don't you have any concept of value? At Hollywood Video, you can rent new releases for five days.

As for Nemesis on video, I'm going to bet on a March or April release. I predict that it will do reasonably well in DVD sales, but it won't out-rent whatever kiddy movie comes out that month.

Value is measured in how long he rents a movie? Seriously, with Nemesis, I think that the greater value is in whoever gives me the movie for LESS time.

The box office figures for Nemesis have been revised, downward. $18.5 is now the official box office. If it makes $60 million is will be a minor miracle. If it follows the same multiplier as Insurrection is will get $58.9 million. And Insurrection didn't have to deal with LotR's on it's second week. It was only up against, 'Prince of Egypt' and 'You've Got Mail.'

I've seen predictions that Nemesis will lose about 50% of it's box office this weekend, for a total of $9.4 million. However, on Wednesday it lost 27% to LotR and by Thursday it was doing barely more than James Bond (it it's forth week) and less than Drumeline (in nearly 1000 less theatres.)

I'm estimating $6 million, while that's the lowest estimate I've seen it still could be a little high. By the third weekend we should expect a large drop in the number of theatres.

I might have mentioned this already but they already pulled it from my local regal cinema. It lasted only 3 or 4 days before it was gone.

According to the Numbers ST:X finished 8th, behind the Hot Chick. That's right, the Federation lost to Rob Schnieder.

Also, I was right about $6 Million being a bit too high, with only $1.475 million on friday, I'm going with a $5.4 - $5.9 million.

Not to sound insulting to anybody who somehow liked Nemesis, but knowing these figures makes me feel good for some reason.

Spanky The Dolphin wrote:Not to sound insulting to anybody who somehow liked Nemesis, but knowing these figures makes me feel good for some reason.

I know. There's a slim chance that during ST:X whole run might not make as much as AotC's best single day figure. We'll see how many theatres pull out next week.

BTW, AotC didn't make less than $1.475 Million till it's 33rd day of release.

Am I correct in remembering that Nemesis made less than $1M on TTT's opening day (like ~$750K)?

Spanky, you are correct, but that was a Wednesday, which is one of the smallest grossing movie days for any movie. The fact that on Friday it finished with less than $1.5 is perhaps the most indicative of the problems that the movie is facing the BO.

omg, this is going to be the lowest grossing Star Trek movie ever!

Darth Balls wrote:omg, this is going to be the lowest grossing Star Trek movie ever!

You say that like it's unexpected.

Darth Balls wrote:omg, this is going to be the lowest grossing Star Trek movie ever!

And if you take inflation into account it's even worse.

Box Office Mojo has estimated ST:X made just $5.2 million this weekend. Much lower than they originially predicted, although pretty damn close to my prediction. That's a staggering lost of more than 70% from it's first weekend. I would expect ST:X to lose close to half its theatres within the next two weeks; and it should be out of the theatres before most people take down their Christmas decorations.

C.S.Strowbridge wrote:Box Office Mojo has estimated ST:X made just $5.2 million this weekend. Much lower than they originially predicted, although pretty damn close to my prediction. That's a staggering lost of more than 70% from it's first weekend. I would expect ST:X to lose close to half its theatres within the next two weeks; and it should be out of the theatres before most people take down their Christmas decorations.

Box Office Mojo, (Same link as above) revised their estimate, downward. As if that's even possible. It now sits at $4.4 Million, or a 76.2% drop. That's a worse second weekend drop than Battlefield Earth. ST:X had a worse per theatre average than Santa Claus 2, and SC2 was in its 8th week.