The Norks are Suspected of Sinking South Korean Shipping.

[MKSheppard]

From the official SORK report:





Also a nice illustration of what Stu was talking about:

[The Romulan Republic]

Why would you 'carpet nuke' the country? You'd use tactical nuclear weapons on the dangerous troop concentrations, WMD sites and deep bunkers. What would be the point of wiping out all the (hopelessly obsolete) factories and (starving) civilians? Of course the regieme likes to claim that every citizen will fight to the death in its defense, but in the historical record very few nations actually lived up to those kind of claims. In short I don't see a reason why NK should come off worse than WW2 Japan.

I'm not arguing that such a tactic would be nessissary or advisable or likely to happen. I was replying to open_sketchbook. How this is not obvious is somewhat beyond me.

Personally I would question the use of nuclear weapons at all against North Korea, given that they could be beaten by conventional forces.

Edi, read the above before you start flaming me.

[Sea Skimmer]

Why would you 'carpet nuke' the country? You'd use tactical nuclear weapons on the dangerous troop concentrations, WMD sites and deep bunkers. What would be the point of wiping out all the (hopelessly obsolete) factories and (starving) civilians? Of course the regieme likes to claim that every citizen will fight to the death in its defense, but in the historical record very few nations actually lived up to those kind of claims. In short I don't see a reason why NK should come off worse than WW2 Japan.

Carpeting with nukes is a real and valid tactic for nuclear war, look into any study on basing the MX missile and the issue will come up constantly. When you have thousands of nuclear weapons, and you want to destroy mobile or shelter shuffling missile launchers it becomes realistic to barrage huge areas in ordered to ensure the missiles are killed. Sometimes that would mean the Soviets would barrage down all the US highways, or the rail system, or large blocks of federal land on which we might have scattered mobile MX missiles. The alternative ideas were superhard silos and deep underground bases, which would try to soak up Soviet megatonnage in the form of huge direct impacts. Of course cities would need not be directly targeted, because who would hide a missile launcher in a city when people all over would be able to see it including spies? But the fallout might not care so much.

http://books.google.com/books?id=e--jJG ... &q&f=false

This covers a fair number of the MX basing concepts.

We have a similar situation in North Korea. They have an extensive road and rail system, and more deep hardened shelters then anywhere else on earth scattered all over the place in addition to many normal transport system tunnels. Every missile they have is already on a mobile launcher, except a few prototype IRBMs for which they have a single launch pad. Tracking down those launchers will be a huge problem. Right now North Korea does not have a nuclear weapon that can be fired on a missile, we hope, so the threat from mobile missiles is sort of tolerable. Its unlikely they'd use bio or chemical unless they also had nuclear weapons operational, and high explosive missiles are just war at work.

But if they had nukes, a nuclear barrage is the one and only way we could ensure that they could not be fired. Since we now know the US has 5,311 operational nuclear weapons, and over 4,000 others awaiting dismantlement, a mass barrage attack is within reason without heavily taxing US strategic reserves.

Conventional air power can't guarantee no launches right now or in the near future in broken terrain like North Korea, even with total air dominance that allows any kind UAV we want to fly. Nor does all that much ABM defense exist in South Korea aside from a few US defended airfields, though it could be rapidly built up by airlifting in more Patriot batteries and THAAD. At the moment South Korean funded ABM plans are distant at best, its way too much money for them to spend to try to counter such a large North Korean threat. But I really don't see a renewed war coming out of this, so what does it matter.

[Night_stalker]

Plus that assumes that any NK-built or designed missile will reach it's target. More than likely, given their track record, it will crash on their own soil.

[Sea Skimmer]

The North Koreans are having trouble making fairly high capability IRBMs work, in large part because they face so much pressure every time they make a test flight preventing a proper test program. They have launched an ICBM but it failed, but that's an even larger advance in technology. The US Atlas program had a huge number of failures.

But the North Koreans only need missiles like that to hit the fringes of the US. They can use much shorter range and quite reliable weapons more directly based on Soviet work to hit South Korea and Japan. North Korea doesn't just have a successful missile program, they've successfully helped start missile production and design programs in Iran, Iraq and Syria and exported missiles to a number of additional countries past. Those things work, our only saving grace is that most of the North Korean weapons are liquid fueled which makes them harder to handle and fire then solid fuel.

[Night_stalker]

North Korea just severed all communications between the North and South:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100525/ap_ ... ship_sinks

Incidentally, their military is now at their version of DEFCON 2 it seems.

[[R_H]]

NKorea severs all ties with rival SKorea

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea declared Tuesday that it would sever all communication and relations with Seoul as punishment for blaming the North for the sinking of a South Korean warship two months ago.

North Korea also announced it would expel all South Korean government officials working at a joint industrial park in the northern border town of Kaesong, the official Korean Central News Agency said in a dispatch monitored in Seoul late Tuesday.
Tensions were rising on the divided Korean peninsula in the wake of an investigation report blaming North Korea for a torpedo attack that sank the Cheonan warship on March 26, killing 46 South Korean sailors.

South Korea's military restarted psychological warfare operations — including blaring radio broadcasts into the North and placing loudspeakers at the border to blast out propaganda — to punish the North for the provocation. The South is also slashing trade and denying permission to North Korean cargo ships to pass through South Korean waters.

North Korea struck back by declaring it would cut all ties with the South until President Lee Myung-bak leaves office in early 2013. South Korean ships and airliners will be banned from passing through its territory and the North will start "all-out counterattacks" against the South's psychological warfare, the North's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification said in a statement carried by KCNA.
The North's committee called the moves "the first phase" of punitive measures against South Korea, suggesting more action could follow.
South Korea's Unification Ministry said it had no immediate comment on the North Korean statement. However, spokeswoman Lee Jong-joo noted the statement referred only to eight South Korean officials staying at the Kaesong complex, not some 800 South Korean company managers and workers.

Yonhap news agency said that suggested the North had no intention of completely shutting down the Kaesong park, as South Korea also decided to keep the complex intact.

Earlier, one Seoul-based monitoring agency reported that North Korea's leader ordered its 1.2 million-member military to get ready for combat. South Korean officials could not immediately confirm the report.
The North flatly denies involvement in the sinking of the Cheonan, one of the South's worst military disasters since the 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice, and has warned that retaliation would mean war. It has threatened to destroy any propaganda facilities installed at the heavily militarized border.

A team of international investigators, however, concluded last week that a torpedo from a North Korean submarine tore apart the Cheonan.
North Korea is already subject to various U.N.-backed sanctions following earlier nuclear and missile tests, and the steps announced by Seoul were seen as among the strongest it could take short of military action.

The U.S. has thrown its full support behind South Korea's moves and they are planning two major military exercises off the Korean peninsula in a display of force intended to deter future aggression by North Korea, the White House said. The U.S. has 28,500 troops in South Korea.
South Korea also wants to bring North Korea before the U.N. Security Council over the sinking. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Monday he expects the council to take action against North Korea, but China — North Korea's main ally and a veto-wielding council member — has so far done little but urge calm on all sides.

In Beijing, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said she had "very productive and very detailed" discussions with Chinese officials but could not say if any progress had been made in convincing the Chinese to back U.N. action.
"No one is more concerned about peace and stability in this region as the Chinese," she told reporters. "We know this is a shared responsibility, and in the days ahead we will work with the international community and our Chinese colleagues to fashion an effective, appropriate response."
Chinese State Counselor Dai Bingguo, speaking at a news conference with Clinton, called for "relevant parties" to "calmly and properly handle the issue and avoid escalation of tension."

As part of its propaganda offensive, South Korea's military resumed radio broadcasts airing Western music, news and comparisons between the South and North Korean political and economic situation late Monday, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The military also planned to launch propaganda leaflets by balloon and other methods on Tuesday night to inform North Koreans about the ship sinking.
In coming weeks, South Korea also will install dozens of loudspeakers and towering electronic billboards along the heavily armed land border to send messages urging communist soldiers to defect to the South.

On Tuesday, North Korean state media cited the powerful National Defense Commission as saying the North's soldiers and reservists were bracing to launch a "sacred war" against South Korea.

The North's military also claimed Tuesday that dozens of South Korean navy ships violated the countries' disputed western sea border earlier this month and threatened to take "practical" military measures in response.

North Korea often issues fiery rhetoric and regularly vows to wage war against South Korea and the U.S. It put its army on high alert following a November sea battle with South Korea near where the Cheonan went down in March. The Koreas also fought bloody maritime skirmishes in the disputed area in 1999 and 2002.

Seoul-based North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity said Tuesday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il last week ordered his military to get ready for combat.

The group, citing unidentified sources in North Korea, said the order was read by Gen. O Kuk Ryol, a Kim confidant, and broadcast on speakers installed in each house and at major public sites throughout the country last Thursday, hours after the multinational report blaming North Korea for the sinking was issued in Seoul.

The South Korean military said it had no indication of unusual activity by North Korea's military.
___
Associated Press writers Sangwon Yoon in Seoul and Matthew Lee in Beijing, and AP photographer Jin-man Lee in Seoul contributed to this report.
(This version CORRECTS in graf 2 that North Korean statement referred to South Korean officials, not all South Koreans, at joint industrial park)

[CaptainChewbacca]

North Korea just severed all communications between the North and South:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100525/ap_ ... ship_sinks

Incidentally, their military is now at their version of DEFCON 2 it seems.

So... is this it? Is the war finally going to end?

[Night_stalker]

Probably not.

[The Romulan Republic]

At the risk of sounding uneducated, should I, as someone living just north of the US border on the west coast and planning a trip to Seattle this weekend, be concerned about the possibility of missile strikes from North Korea hitting my area if worst comes to worst?

According to the BBC, they do have a missile that can theoretically reach North America, but its test launch was a failiure:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/2564241.stm

So I'm not sure how worried I should be.

[Big Phil]

If you're that scared, move to Yellowknife or Iqaluit.

Otherwise, tough it out and stop worrying about North Korea potentially lobbing nukes across the Pacific

[MKSheppard]

GBI is operational, so no, you have nothing to fear from a Nork Missile.

But I'd be worried about Nork Saboteurs sneaking in through our borders to wage a guerilla campaign in the US...

[Phantasee]

Don't sweat it, man. People managed to live their lives just fine for years under the spectre of nuclear annihilation, why would you worry about missiles that may reach Seattle?

[Aaron]

At the risk of sounding uneducated, should I, as someone living just north of the US border on the west coast and planning a trip to Seattle this weekend, be concerned about the possibility of missile strikes from North Korea hitting my area if worst comes to worst?

According to the BBC, they do have a missile that can theoretically reach North America, but its test launch was a failiure:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/2564241.stm

So I'm not sure how worried I should be.

You shouldn't worry at all, we've lived most of the last 60 years under the threat of nuclear war and nothing happened. Worrying will just eat you up.

[Night_stalker]

Yeah, plus the odds of it surviving the flight without falling to pieces are astronomial

[Stark]

Is an astronomial like a polynomial from space?

Like Shep says you've never been safer.

[Night_stalker]

I meant the odds are really against the rocket surviving launch

[Veramocor]

Could someone explain the tactics behind NK artillery attack on Seoul? Its a great threat that NK be willing to attack a population center to scare the SK from attacking first. But if hostilities were to break how is it tactically advantageous to shell a population center when the opposing army is going to be counter shelling you? It would seem that NK using artillery on the SK and US military would be the right tactics if NK wanted to win or force a stalemate.

[Stofsk]

Yeah, plus the odds of it surviving the flight without falling to pieces are astronomial

I think the word you're looking for is 'astronomical'.

[Omega18]

Could someone explain the tactics behind NK artillery attack on Seoul? Its a great threat that NK be willing to attack a population center to scare the SK from attacking first. But if hostilities were to break how is it tactically advantageous to shell a population center when the opposing army is going to be counter shelling you? It would seem that NK using artillery on the SK and US military would be the right tactics if NK wanted to win or force a stalemate.

Some chaos from artillery might help NK, but its true the militarily sensible thing to do would be mostly target the US and South Korean military. However North Korea's leadership might be potentially crazy enough to do it anyway. (If North Korea goes to war they are already acting irrationally since they are clearly conventionally outmatched by the South Korean military alone, and have realistically guaranteed they will lose power.)

[Prannon]

At the risk of sounding uneducated, should I, as someone living just north of the US border on the west coast and planning a trip to Seattle this weekend, be concerned about the possibility of missile strikes from North Korea hitting my area if worst comes to worst?

According to the BBC, they do have a missile that can theoretically reach North America, but its test launch was a failiure:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/2564241.stm

So I'm not sure how worried I should be.

I think I have reason to be a little more worried than you are. Not too worried, but since I came here about a year ago this is the most serious I've felt the situation grow. I was chatting with my coworkers yesterday, and we talked about our chances if the city got shelled. Our school is near a major air force base, so there's always a chance that something could happen to us. I mentioned some of what I'd read in this thread, that even if the city got shelled, the North Koreans wouldn't be able to maintain it for very long. Since they'd be focusing on military targets for those first few hours, chances of the wider city being devastated are slightly less.

I also took a few moments to look at the US Embassy website for Korea, which has thisto say about evacuation in chances of war. The good news for me is that there is a major evacuation hub very close to my house, only a few kilometers. I need to get a radio of some sort so I can tune into the Armed Forces of Korea network in case Bad Things happen.

Could someone explain the tactics behind NK artillery attack on Seoul? Its a great threat that NK be willing to attack a population center to scare the SK from attacking first. But if hostilities were to break how is it tactically advantageous to shell a population center when the opposing army is going to be counter shelling you? It would seem that NK using artillery on the SK and US military would be the right tactics if NK wanted to win or force a stalemate.

The North has maintained this for years as a kind of scare tactic to keep the South at bay. In the event of war, the Norks are likely to shell military and government targets first, so central Seoul around the Central Government Complex just north of Namsan, as well as military bases around the city and air strips are likely targets for the first few hours. My coworkers also think they'll hit big economic targets, so Seoul Station, malls, factories, big corporate headquarters... This will probably also include the big airports like Gimpo and Incheon International since the military only really needs a wide flat area to operate planes from.

In the event of war, the North Koreans are counting on being able to take Seoul and then probably sue for peace, so those practical military concerns are paramount. If they are able to keep the shelling up for more than a few hours - US and Korean air superiority will annihilate the guns not long after they start shooting - then they may spread out the shelling to more civilian areas for maximum psychological damage.

[CJvR]

Don't sweat it, man. People managed to live their lives just fine for years under the spectre of nuclear annihilation, why would you worry about missiles that may reach Seattle?

True, but MAD is less reliable if the other side is MAD!

[Prannon]

It irritates me when ignorant people call North Korea's leadership crazy. Crazy implies that they don't think logically, that they do bad things just...because.

Said Kim Jong-il to his captive, "And then...when I have finished polishing my big toe-nail, I shall push the button that gives the order to launch the biochemicalradiological nuclear warheads at Seoul! I play my fiddle to the burning of my enemies!" *cackles tyrannically!*

No, the Northern leadership isn't crazy - not in control of their mental facilities. They know what they face. They know that their country is in ruins, and they know that if war comes about they will lose. They also know that if they loosen control over their society even a little bit, all those lies and evils they have committed to their own population to maintain their power will come back to bite them.

North Korea's problem is, and always has been, pride and self-preservation. Most importantly pride. If you look at just about anything they do through those lenses, their actions begin to make a modicum of sense.

[Night_stalker]

Thanks. The USAF have it engraved on North Korea's leadership's tombstones following their removal from power, via MOAB.

[hongi]

At the risk of sounding uneducated, should I, as someone living just north of the US border on the west coast and planning a trip to Seattle this weekend, be concerned about the possibility of missile strikes from North Korea hitting my area if worst comes to worst?

According to the BBC, they do have a missile that can theoretically reach North America, but its test launch was a failiure:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/2564241.stm

So I'm not sure how worried I should be.

Pff. My mum's heading over to SK soon and my entire family lives there. You have nothing to worry about.