Thanas wrote:Simon_Jester wrote:If Westeros armies do not normally use pikes except when specifically anticipating a cavalry attack, then it is unlikely that the Unsullied would have to fight pikemen. Which neutralizes the objection that the Unsullied would not be effective against pikemen.
Now, the Dothraki would have severe problems against pikemen if they are not in the habit of using missile weapons against pike blocks- and we know that at least some Dothraki do not have that habit, because of the famous defeat of a large Dothraki army by a relatively small Unsullied phalanx in the past.
There is nothing in the dothraki that screems "sophisticated combat tactics" of the sort necessary to defeat even a bog-standard shield wall. And tbh, if the Lannisters have not equipped their forces with pikes then they are idiots...
And this is a hypothesis you're prepared to reject?
We've already established that the Unsullied and the Dothraki are idiots, most soldiers in the North are idiots (or at least their commanders are), a wide variety of soldiers and commanders in the rest of Westeros are idiots. Idiots abound, idiots galore. Why should the Lannisters be immune?
In other words, if our standard for "is an idiot in fiction" is "does something in battle on TV that would not work in real life," then there are just about
zero non-idiot military characters in all of military, historical, or fantasy fiction.
So we can either assume that the on-screen portrayal of these people
should be taken as evidence they're stupid whenever they do something unrealistic... Or we can assume that it
should not. We can't have it both ways.
There is a difference between saying "the Lannisters will have trouble fielding such a force" and "the Lannisters have no such forces left." They have some left. Are they as skilled as the soldiers who fought in the War of the Five Kings, though? Do they have the same level of training, discipline, and willingness to fight for the Lannisters?
There is nothing to suggest otherwise IMO.
The Lannisters' original standing army. The strengths of the Lannisters were their long-service professional troops, their great wealth, their reputation as reliable paymasters (you may remember Tyrion exploiting this at the Eyrie, for instance), and their reputation as bold, cunning, efficient leaders.
Now...
1) Many of the long-service professionals are dead. They're no doubt being replaced, but not very fast.
2) The Lannisters' wealth has decreased- the gold mines are empty. That's not their only source of wealth but it's a major one.
3) The Lannisters are getting a reputation for
not paying their financial debts, even as they become savagely vindictive about their political debts. This is the kind of thing that makes you nervous if you're a mercenary worried that if you lose a battle, Cersei may decide you're a traitor for doing so.
4a) One of the three Lannisters who had that reputation for cleverness and efficiency is dead. Another is an exiled kinslayer. That leaves one (Jaime).
4b) The fourth Lannister (who happens to be running things) has been going increasingly insane, has struck out wildly at many of her own nobles and supporters
and the established church that most of her own followers worship, and in general has about as much skill in the art of government as the average eggplant.
And to you these things do not suggest that Lannister forces are likely to have declined in quality? Truly? If I were a competent mercenary in Westeros I would seriously consider leaving Lannister service
right now- even though, as such a mercenary, I would have stuck firmly by their side through the War of the Five Kings and its aftermath. Because their ability to pay me is now in question, their willingness to pay me is in question, and they have made strong enemies of someone else whose ability to pay rivals that of the Lannisters- but whose reputation is much better.
Cersei's word isn't going to be worth anything to anyone in Season 7, realistically, and Jaime is still dogged by his reputation as the Kingslayer. The Lannisters' word is now an extremely debased currency.
They still have rich domains- but then, so do the Tyrells. With the depletion of their gold mines, the Lannisters no longer have an advantage in that area. So all Daenerys needs is to rely on her allies to cancel out her enemies' strengths while allowing her to exploit her own strengths.
And yet the Lannisters have no trouble holding on to their forces. I just do not think the losses of the war against the starks were that severe. Let's just agree to disagree on that one.
They lost half of their main field army at least once, and large chunks of it at other times. I'm not ready to agree on this point.
All we know is that the Lannisters still have soldiers. We don't have accurate counts of their forces at any one time, let alone a graph of their total force over a period. We know that they aren't suffering mass desertions
yet, but this may well be happening in the near future. To me it would be an entirely predictable consequence of Cersei's actions if she finds a large fraction of her own army leaving her service.
The Tyrells have constantly been portrayed as a consistent, credible rival to the Lannisters. The fact that they were backing Renly made Renly a massive threat at first, for instance.
That and the strength of half of House Boratheon. Whch is now dead and taken over by the Lannisters.
House Barathreon was never, so far as I know, so rich and powerful as either the Tyrells or the Lannisters. A large part of Renly's power came from supporters in the Stormlands, but his alliance with the Reach is what amplified his strength into an overwhelming force. Note how much larger his forces were compared to Stannis's, which is why Stannis had to resort to magic in order to defeat him. They were both Barathreons, and Stannis had troops from the islands, but Renly's share of the Barathreon troops
plus Tyrell forces was much, much larger than Stannis's (small) share plus all the men from the islands.
Then, when the Tyrells swing around to back the Lannisters, the Lannister position is made secure- even before the Red Wedding, the Lannisters have every reason to stop worrying. But they spend the next three seasons maneuvering to avoid ending up
too dependent on the Tyrells. Why would that be, if the Tyrells were not a credible rival to the Lannisters in terms of wealth, power, and influence?
Fair point- although I suspect that sheer numbers and surprise would at least allow Daenerys's forces to take that much if they move aggressively. They would then have some time, at least weeks or months, before facing other major Lannister armies in the field.
Maybe. I think it all depends on how good the Lannister fleet is at detecting the enemy forces. Which tbh is a fair possibility considering the Lannister Navy is really good.
This does appear to be true- although I'm honestly amazed if the threat of Ironborn raids hasn't forced the Lannisters to divert most of their warships to the west coast, leaving them poorly equipped to respond to Daenerys's fleet in the east.
Evade in the operational sense, not the tactical. Foot archers protected by a good shield wall or spear formation could probably break a Dothraki attack, but they can't march out and drive the Dothraki away permanently, so they remain an operational threat to a surrounded infantry army.
But....why would they be surrounded? The Dothraki horses are a major weak spot. They are used to hot climates. They are not used to continental climates...
In English, a "continental climate" refers to the climate of an area that is far inland- which typically means very hot summers
and harsh, cold winters. And the Dothraki are native to precisely such a large inland plains region.
What is your reasoning for saying that the Dothraki do not know how to cope with winter climates, or that their horses cannot survive such? We've mostly seen Dothraki fighting and operating when it is warm, but that doesn't mean they don't know how to handle cold. We could equally well argue that because the armies of the War of the Five Kings were fighting at a time when there was no snow or ice, that none of
them are prepared to cope with winters.
Yeah, maygars. But Charlemagne defeated the awars with heavy infantry and cavalry despite them having infantry and heavy cavalry (and superior field artillery). Point is, some terrain is not useful for light cavalry even if supported by heavy knights and infantry. As long as the core of Dany's army is Dothraki, she will not have much success (for the simple reason that the Dothraki have no camp discipline, no watches, no tactical training besides "charge them".) Heck, an entire dragon was able to sneak up on their host without a picket line spotting it.
The Dothraki lack of military discipline is definitely going to be a factor, and I would expect well led Westeros armies to perform adequately against a purely Dothraki force (like the one Khal Drogo might have tried to lead against them, once upon a time).
What do you think twentygoodmen (tm) led by Jaimie will do to their camp?
Well, I'd like to think Jaime can do anything useful Ramsay could do, so I'm going to assume that they could wreck the supplies of, oh, five thousand troops or however many Stannis had left... pity about the other ninety-five thousand.
More seriously, I wouldn't be at all surprised if vast numbers of Dothraki die for this and other reasons. But they are not truly the core of Daenerys's forces, they are not her
only force, and they are not, man-for-man, her best force.
That same commando raid that works well against a bunch of wildlings or soldiers bunkered down for the winter will probably not work so well against a camp full of Unsullied. The Unsullied may have an archaic fighting style but no one can reasonably deny their discipline or their willingness to build secure camps.
And the Tyrells seem to have already mastered the art of fielding large armies with secure logistics, or Renly wouldn't have been able to lead his army of a hundred thousand men.
They also lacked air support armed with napalm. Whereas Daenerys would enjoy both of these advantages.
True, Dragons are a major problems for Lannisters....but again, ballistae.
They only have so many, in so many places. If the war stretches out long enough, the Lannisters may well be able to procure enough ballistae to secure quite a few fortresses... but they lack control of the land between, they cannot march armies between different fortresses in any security, they cannot rely on maritime trade (it takes a LOT of missile weapons to pose a credible threat to a dragon, and we've seen her dragons lay waste to a considerable fleet of warships already). Meanwhile, in the long run on the political front, Daenerys has almost every imaginable advantage, while the Lannisters have almost every imaginable disadvantage. About the only real problem Daenerys has is the risk of her Dothraki turning the populace against her- a problem which is mitigated in exact proportion to the number of Dothraki who fall in battle.
Not sure, water is the main problem not grain.
To be fair, in an arid region Daenerys could not reasonably bring all of her tens of thousands of cavalry to bear on an enemy at once- but then, it's not like the enemy can operate freely in huge numbers in such regions either.
