Posted: 2003-01-25 08:10am
A few basic facts and opinions.
First of all it cannot be in anycase something on the scale of Stalingrad,at least in terms of military casualties.
Saddam would just have 20.000 troops for the defense of the capital, if I recall correctly,so there are not just the numbers for a StalingradII.
These are however taken from its own clan and are well compensated and probably brainwashed.They might surrender at the first cannon shot or might fight,in anycase you cannot be sure that they will choose the first option like instead you would be about the average iraqui conscript.
Second.Saddam is a son of a bitch.If he could use his own population as hostages, he would.So do not count on him happily letting everyone out if he could do otherwise.The question is:will he have the power to prevent them from leaving?Baghdad has five millions of inhabitants,keep this in mind.
Also is crossed by a river,in case you missed that.
Third.The Iraqui population is probably so fed up by Saddam that would welcome everyone that freed them from him with open arms.That at least is what I can get from interviews with exiled iraquis etc.At least is likely that they hate you less than they hate Saddam.Provided however that you treat them decently.During WW2 in many places of the Soviet Union (mr Sheppard,correct me if I am wrong) the germans were initially welcomed as liberators.Later things changed.
Starving five millions of people to death,because Saddam and his forces will be the ones to eat while th others will starve,is a non option for the goals that the White House has.Or that we presume it has,at least.
Fourth.The goals of the war.WMD are just a pretext.His four CBW tipped SCUDs that he may or he may (he probably have them in anyway) not have hidden is some cave are not an issue.Not at least more than the NK ones aimed against your airfields in South Korea.And you will not go at war with North Korea for just that.Bush wants regime change to solve a crisis that has been going on too much,and the control of the country would give you many advantages,such as the possibility of putting pressure on the Saudis.I am sure that the Duchess can develop on this better than I can do.Suffice to say that in order to fulfill these goals starving to death/nuking several millions of iraqui people is not an option.So please,stop masturbating on the case of a tactical nuke,it is not healthy.
Also in urban combat some civilian losses are unavoidable.If civilians and troops are in the same bloc,there is no JDAM that holds.Civilians are going to die.
Fifth
The USA is the most powerful nation state in the world.Only the EU has an economy of roughly the same size (take the CIA factbook and do the math if you do not believe me),and the EU will not have an unified military for, well decades probably,if ever.Equally China will not be a match for you for decades,and short of a big regime change,they cannot care less about you killing civilians in Iraq.So in theory you can go in Iraq,gas or impale everyone on sight and no one is in the position of making,or is going to make,a fuss about that.Considered the size of your economy it is likely that no one will seriously embargo you, either.
HOWEVER,it is not like such a thing would not have consequences.
Maybe you forgot that but there is a certain bearded individual who is currently hiding somewhere making mock of you and all your military power has not yet enabled you to put their hands on him.
This is just to remember that having the biggest stick is not everything.
First of all it cannot be in anycase something on the scale of Stalingrad,at least in terms of military casualties.
Saddam would just have 20.000 troops for the defense of the capital, if I recall correctly,so there are not just the numbers for a StalingradII.
These are however taken from its own clan and are well compensated and probably brainwashed.They might surrender at the first cannon shot or might fight,in anycase you cannot be sure that they will choose the first option like instead you would be about the average iraqui conscript.
Second.Saddam is a son of a bitch.If he could use his own population as hostages, he would.So do not count on him happily letting everyone out if he could do otherwise.The question is:will he have the power to prevent them from leaving?Baghdad has five millions of inhabitants,keep this in mind.
Also is crossed by a river,in case you missed that.
Third.The Iraqui population is probably so fed up by Saddam that would welcome everyone that freed them from him with open arms.That at least is what I can get from interviews with exiled iraquis etc.At least is likely that they hate you less than they hate Saddam.Provided however that you treat them decently.During WW2 in many places of the Soviet Union (mr Sheppard,correct me if I am wrong) the germans were initially welcomed as liberators.Later things changed.
Starving five millions of people to death,because Saddam and his forces will be the ones to eat while th others will starve,is a non option for the goals that the White House has.Or that we presume it has,at least.
Fourth.The goals of the war.WMD are just a pretext.His four CBW tipped SCUDs that he may or he may (he probably have them in anyway) not have hidden is some cave are not an issue.Not at least more than the NK ones aimed against your airfields in South Korea.And you will not go at war with North Korea for just that.Bush wants regime change to solve a crisis that has been going on too much,and the control of the country would give you many advantages,such as the possibility of putting pressure on the Saudis.I am sure that the Duchess can develop on this better than I can do.Suffice to say that in order to fulfill these goals starving to death/nuking several millions of iraqui people is not an option.So please,stop masturbating on the case of a tactical nuke,it is not healthy.
Also in urban combat some civilian losses are unavoidable.If civilians and troops are in the same bloc,there is no JDAM that holds.Civilians are going to die.
Fifth
The USA is the most powerful nation state in the world.Only the EU has an economy of roughly the same size (take the CIA factbook and do the math if you do not believe me),and the EU will not have an unified military for, well decades probably,if ever.Equally China will not be a match for you for decades,and short of a big regime change,they cannot care less about you killing civilians in Iraq.So in theory you can go in Iraq,gas or impale everyone on sight and no one is in the position of making,or is going to make,a fuss about that.Considered the size of your economy it is likely that no one will seriously embargo you, either.
HOWEVER,it is not like such a thing would not have consequences.
Maybe you forgot that but there is a certain bearded individual who is currently hiding somewhere making mock of you and all your military power has not yet enabled you to put their hands on him.
This is just to remember that having the biggest stick is not everything.