IEA: Oil Demand has Surpassed Supply
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I guess I should start dumping all my oil & gasoline futures since oil prices are clearly headed down to a single Yergin...
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The slight variations in spelling and grammar enhance its individual character and beauty and in no way are to be considered flaws or defects
I'm not sure why people choose 'To Love is to Bury' as their wedding song...It's about a murder-suicide
- Margo Timmins
When it becomes serious, you have to lie
- Jean-Claude Juncker
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Illuminatus Primus
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LOL CONSUMPTION WON'T GROW AND ALTERNATIVES WILL BE AS GOOD LOL.Admiral Valdemar wrote:lol, peak oil cancelled. consume away, kthnxbye.
Is this shit for real? Production/reserves? We don't use what we used 10 years ago, but we're supposed to stay flat for 80 years and all alternatives are supposed to pan out? What kind of analysis is that?
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The Fifth Illuminatus Primus | Warsie | Skeptical Empiricist | Florida Gator | Sustainability Advocate | Libertarian Socialist |
"This statement, in its utterly clueless hubristic stupidity, cannot be improved upon. I merely quote it in admiration of its perfection." - Garibaldi in reply to an incredibly stupid post.
The Fifth Illuminatus Primus | Warsie | Skeptical Empiricist | Florida Gator | Sustainability Advocate | Libertarian Socialist |
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Einhander Sn0m4n
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One doomed to fall to nasty surprises, as opposed to the PO/GW doom-n-gloom scaremongering which is almost guaranteed to not only A> scare people into action, but B> spur some kind of innovation, which might C> lead to the prophecies becoming self-defeating. In the end, all prophecies of Bad Things™ strive to self-defeat, after all.Illuminatus Primus wrote:LOL CONSUMPTION WON'T GROW AND ALTERNATIVES WILL BE AS GOOD LOL.Admiral Valdemar wrote:lol, peak oil cancelled. consume away, kthnxbye.
Is this shit for real? Production/reserves? We don't use what we used 10 years ago, but we're supposed to stay flat for 80 years and all alternatives are supposed to pan out? What kind of analysis is that?
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Admiral Valdemar
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If you look at alternative liquids growth over the last several years, you'll see that during a massive subsidy based time of production increases, total global additions were barely much to rave about (as evidenced by the undulating plateaux which may possible have had a new all time peak just a few hundred kilobarrels over the 2006 record). This is expected to end now as investments are cut and less projects are on the planning list, given Robert Rapier has overlooked the number of plants come online in the past decade and that was driven by extremely favourable conditions. Even then, that didn't make a dent in consumption and we're also having to contend with lower EROEI.
While there are other oil mega-projects on the horizon, you cannot expect them to deliver what they propose or even on time as many such projects are circa 2007 and are now expected on-stream in 2008, possibly to be pushed back to '09. If they use modern extraction techniques (definite), then they, too, will encounter decline rates like the more modern fields in the UK and Mexico, as opposed to the US Texan fields.
This coming at a global recession with the possibility of depression scale effects which will only hinder investment in alternatives for electricity at least (solar, hydro etc.) and bio-fuels which are already on unfavourable terms with many global organisations including the UN and environmental agencies. That demand keeps being revised up and production declines also due to poor predictive models used by the leading energy watchdogs, it doesn't fill me with confidence even if I could believe the KSA could reach 15 mbpd as a buffer for global OPEC and non-OPEC output limits being reached, be it geologically or via geo-political issues. Iraq, at least, is pumping more than at any point in the last 4/5 years, which is something to be thankful for.
While there are other oil mega-projects on the horizon, you cannot expect them to deliver what they propose or even on time as many such projects are circa 2007 and are now expected on-stream in 2008, possibly to be pushed back to '09. If they use modern extraction techniques (definite), then they, too, will encounter decline rates like the more modern fields in the UK and Mexico, as opposed to the US Texan fields.
This coming at a global recession with the possibility of depression scale effects which will only hinder investment in alternatives for electricity at least (solar, hydro etc.) and bio-fuels which are already on unfavourable terms with many global organisations including the UN and environmental agencies. That demand keeps being revised up and production declines also due to poor predictive models used by the leading energy watchdogs, it doesn't fill me with confidence even if I could believe the KSA could reach 15 mbpd as a buffer for global OPEC and non-OPEC output limits being reached, be it geologically or via geo-political issues. Iraq, at least, is pumping more than at any point in the last 4/5 years, which is something to be thankful for.