RogueIce wrote:
Heck non-Sith Palpatine may not have succeeded like he did in the first place. After all, you've brought up the dispute over his foresight ability. If you're right, it's conceivable a non-Sith could do it. But if you're not, we don't know to what extent Palpatine's successes were due to said foresight; it's entirely possible a non-Sith, lacking such foresight, could never have juggled a galactic war like Palptine did and thus wouldn't be able to reach the end-game regardless. Or at least, would have come up with an entirely different plan for subverting the Republic.
As Necronlord pointed out, if nothing else, the shroud of the Darkside would have been much less likely to be effective without the influence of Sith. Thus a non-Sith would be forced to deal with Jedi that can sense his intentions. Look at how casually Qui-Gon was able to sense the general emoitions of the TF leadership at Naboo. Also consider that the TF leadership was terrified about the possibility of being stuck in the same room as a Jedi, presumably because their plans would be discovered.
Going by the movies let's contrast Jedi and Sith long term foresight(as distinct from combat foresight). Part of the problem is that we see far less of what the Sith are doing and thus are less likely to see how well they can see the future.
It does show several indications of Jedi foresight, among the best in the series. Qui-Gon recieves a premonition that the Sith would kill Padme if she stays on Naboo("My feelings tell me they will destroy you"). Qui-Gon was also utterly convinced that Anakin would win, which potentially indicates that he could foresee this outcome. The Jedi Council are also fairly effective overall. While they have the obvious blindspot of the Sith return, they do predict that Maul would return on Naboo, though it is possible that it was more of a general prediction than foresight. They also correctly point out how cloudy Anakin's future is.
TPM shows no indication of Sith foresight. Palpatine is apparently surprised by Padme's decision to attack the TF directly(twice mentioning that it is an unexpected move) and when looking for Padme on Tatooine, they rely on a trace. Though in his discussion with the TF leadership, it is possible that he was concealing his powers and knew they would lose, not caring because he had already became Chancellor. He does however give the command to Darth Maul to be mindful and Maul was able to sense where the attack would come from and stop the Jedi.
AOTC clearly shows the abilities of the Jedi weakening, with their inability to sense the creation of the Clone Army as well as virtually everything they state with regard to Dooku is wrong. We also see this with Obi-Wan in AOTC in contrast to Qui-Gon in TPM. When investigating the Kaminioans, Obi-Wan states that there appears to be no motive. Qui-Gon in TPM states that he senses an unusual amount of fear. Only Yoda truly recognizes that Jedi foresight is less effective, as Mace Windu walks directly into an ambush, confident that his abilities would protect him. They obviously did not.
Sith foresight in the same film is, along with their motivations, a complete mystery. Dooku almost never seems surprised in the film, realizing that the Jedi are about to appear as well as his clear lack of surprise at the presence of the Clone Army(though both of those facts could also have been revealed by Palpatine). The finale also indicates that Palpatine and Dooku foresaw and planned for nearly every event in the film. Though how much of that is planning and how much is foresight is unknown.
ROTS gives some indication of Jedi foresight even in the darkness, with Yoda sensing Order 66 while Mace Windu was able to sense a plot to destroy the Jedi. But it was obviously not enough to have a significant impact as they obviously loose. It is possible that Obi-Wan has a premonition that he would be able to defeat Anakin if he drew him into the open, though it is more likely that was simply a prediction based on how well he knew Anakin's weaknesses.
ROTS again shows little of whether the Sith are simply very good planners or whether they have foresight. Though the risks that Palpatine is willing to take throughout the film indicates foresight. He is willing to allow himself to be captured by the CIS and held at lightsaber point by Anakin as well as Mace Windu.
ANH gives little indication of Jedi or Sith foresight and several instances of evidence against it. Obi-Wan is able to sense the destruction of Alderaan. As Necronlord pointed out, Vader seemed incapable of using his abilities to discover the location of the Rebel base. Vader does recognize the threat of the Rebel attack instantly, thought that is another case where it is just as likely that he was simply making a normal prediction rather than a Force based one.
ESB gives solid evidence of premonition on both sides. Vader and the Emperor both recognize the threat of Luke, with Vader obviously attempting to underplay it as he was always intending to convert Luke and kill the Emperor(notice that from the beginning of the film Vader was obsessed finding Luke, the Emperor's call told him nothing that he didn't already know). Vader is also able to determine with certainty that Luke is on Hoth. Yoda similarly recognizes the threat of Bespin and is able to see a degree of what will occur, that Luke would be strongly tempted by the Dark Side, though his primary predictions are all wrong. Luke appearing does in fact save everyone else through the presence of R2.
ROTJ puts the nail in the coffin of the idea that Sith lack foresight. The Emperor mentions the existence directly("Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen"). Though obviously it is less useful than in the past given that the Emperor is defeated by a series of unknown knowns*.
ROTJ also gives evidence that Luke is beginning to develop foresight. His high-risk plan against Jabba goes off without a hitch. He similarly was able to sense that Vader might be redeemed. While his abilities also relied on a lot of luck(and faith in his friends), they were unlikely to simply be lucky guesses(after all, there is no such thing as luck).
My theory of Force clairvoyance is that it is based on the level of darkness in the Force at the time. When the galaxy is in darkness, Sith are more easily able to sense events. When the galaxy is in the light, Jedi are more able to sense events. These events are generally caused by opposing Force users.
The ANH example is the odd man out and so requires an explanation. It is possible that as the Force was beginning to become lighter, through the military sucess of the Rebel Alliance, the Dark Side was momentarily clouded. It also coincided with the imminent reveal of Luke and reemergence of Obi-Wan. Thus Vader was less able to see and was not in a position where he could admit such a thing to anyone in the Empire. Going into ESB, with Imperial military sucess and the death of Obi-Wan, the Dark Side would again be stronger and Vader would be more able to see. Yoda was hampered in this era with his prediction regarding Bespin, fitting an increase in darkness. ROTJ fits with the full development of Luke as a Jedi Knight and his growing effectiveness in the Force. This fits with the decrease in the quality of the Emperor's predictions. If the majority of those premonitions came during the time frame of ESB, it is possible he was simply noting that they were coming true and thus believed that there was no sign his abilities had faltered even as they had.
* This is of course a reference to Donald Rumsfeld's infamous speech. It is the category he left out. The things that we do not wish to know. In the case of Iraq virtually all experts knew that sectarian violence was a significant possibility. They ignored the chances of this occurring. As for Endor, the Emprie clearly knew about the threat of clever Rebel tactics(as shown on Hoth) and about the fact that the Ewoks existed. They never considered that these two factors could lead to a Rebel victory.
