Earthquake off Japan

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The Japanese are clearly getting desperate, now they're using choppers to dump water on the reactors themselves Not only that, but by all accounts the radiation levels are too high for the chopper pilots to hang around. Hell, even their Emperor is trying to keep the people calm

[Dalton]

I'm just not sure how much radiation people realistically expect to reach us. I mean you're probably soaking in tons of radiation if you live in the vicinity of a coal plant as it is and you don't hear about those people buying up iodide tablets by the dozens.

I suspect that information is carefully concealed by the coal industry.

Not really, there was an article in scientific american about this subject.

But on the other hand, who reads scientific american?

Exactly. You won't see this much on the mainstream media.

[FSTargetDrone]

Another view of Minmisamriku, pretty sobering to look at. And at the beginning I think even a few sea birds were taken out by the wave as it rolled into the bay
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=027_1300214407

Towards the end of the video in your link, you can see someone struggling up and away from the deluge, but the NHK/CNN lower third graphic on the screen obscures what happened to him or her. It looks like it would have been possible for that person to escape, but I can't see if that was the case. Perhaps some of the people screaming are shouting at the person to run. I don't know Japanese, but it's obvious they see that individual. I hope that person made it.

[Rahvin]

At this point, are we able to make a reasonable worst case scenario estimate regarding the reactors? If absolutely everything goes wrong from here out, what would the situation look like?

[Gil Hamilton]

IodiDe and IodiNe are two different things. The tablets people are buying are the former, table salt contains the latter. Some people think eating kelp is a natural alternative because it contains iodine. I'm okay with them being too stupid to know its the wrong kind and possibly dying.

*smack*

IodiDE is the -1 ion of iodiNe. When you take any iodine into your system, being a halogen, it becomes the -1 ion in solution. The table salt that contains KI as an additive, which is potassium iodide. The tablets that people are buying are just straight potassium iodide, which, as was mentioned, saturates the thyroid with iodine (as opposed to just giving it a healthy amount, they add KI to table salt because it prevents goiters, since it's needed for thyroid hormones) so you pass radioactive iodine without it collecting. But the stuff in table salt and the stuff in anti-rad tablets are the same thing. Too much iodide is toxic, and actually has similar effects to too little iodide.

In general:
What's stupid about all of this is that people are treating "radiation" like it's magic voodoo that will getcha if there is a large concentration anywhere in the world. Iodide tablets aren't going to save a single person outside of Japan, because they'll never get an exposure to it, but they are rushing out to buy the stuff because they want a security blanket and to feel like they are being cautious. It's a clear case of uninformed people panicking.

[Edward Yee]

"Expert" when he agrees with you, anyway.

[Todeswind]

I don't know if anyone has posted this yet but here's Glenn Beck talking about the reactor meltdown.

http://www.businessinsider.com/glenn-be ... deo-2011-3

[Simon_Jester]

So, what would be ways to quake-proof a spent fuel pond? Could you just keep a huge pile of neutron absorbent materials on hand to dump into the thing?

[phongn]

So, what would be ways to quake-proof a spent fuel pond? Could you just keep a huge pile of neutron absorbent materials on hand to dump into the thing?

You still have the cool the spent fuel. An engineer over on ArsTechnica estimates some 6-8MW of heat input still.

[Sea Skimmer]

So, what would be ways to quake-proof a spent fuel pond? Could you just keep a huge pile of neutron absorbent materials on hand to dump into the thing?

Just don't put it four stories in the air so its hard as hell to dump water into it. If this was ground level like the vast majority of spent fuel pools it'd be pretty to have a robot haul a hose to the edge and then dump in water constantly. Other then that it's a concrete tank, mounting on springs ect... would help but just building it damn strong with welded rebar is going to do a lot on its own. As it is we don't really know if anything was ever wrong with these fuel ponds except the loss of power to cooling pumps.

[Scottish Ninja]

Another view of Minmisamriku, pretty sobering to look at. And at the beginning I think even a few sea birds were taken out by the wave as it rolled into the bay
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=027_1300214407

Towards the end of the video in your link, you can see someone struggling up and away from the deluge, but the NHK/CNN lower third graphic on the screen obscures what happened to him or her. It looks like it would have been possible for that person to escape, but I can't see if that was the case. Perhaps some of the people screaming are shouting at the person to run. I don't know Japanese, but it's obvious they see that individual. I hope that person made it.

That is indeed what they're shouting - "faster! Faster!" - "Just a bit farther!" - &c; though it's not clear to either myself or my mother whether he got away.

[Sea Skimmer]

All got away, but one of them was almost pulled into the debris flow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxL36ngIJA8

[MKSheppard]

87 mSv @ 300 meters altitude (from the helicopters) via a japanese press conf.

In real, non shitty units, that's 8.7 rem/hr.

[Big Orange]

In general:
What's stupid about all of this is that people are treating "radiation" like it's magic voodoo that will getcha if there is a large concentration anywhere in the world. Iodide tablets aren't going to save a single person outside of Japan, because they'll never get an exposure to it, but they are rushing out to buy the stuff because they want a security blanket and to feel like they are being cautious. It's a clear case of uninformed people panicking.

Yeah, the irrational fear and disinformation about the hazards of nuclear power is irritating: I'm in an area of Britain where we're building a load of nuclear reactors and lots of people in the public/media are suddenly getting jittery about that, even though the nuclear power stations in my area are very, very unlikely to be subjected to the same sort of once in a century natural disaster and not going to have the same structural/system faults that those very old reactors had, exacerbated by being operated by a corner cutting company.

[Simon_Jester]

So, what would be ways to quake-proof a spent fuel pond? Could you just keep a huge pile of neutron absorbent materials on hand to dump into the thing?

You still have the cool the spent fuel. An engineer over on ArsTechnica estimates some 6-8MW of heat input still.

Point. I'm just trying to think of something you could do as insurance against criticality incidents.

[AndroAsc]

So is the radiation fallout going to hit the US west coast with any level that poses a danger to us?

I figured a way to calculate the upper limit. It assumes the worst case scenario that all the spent fuel rods are burnt.

We know the number of spent fuel rods. If we have the mass and composition of fuel rods, we can calculate the total amount of radioactive particles (maximum yield assuming all the radioactive particles gets vaporized blown to the US west coast and no loss along the way during their transit via the Pacific ocean). I'm sure there's a relationship between radioactivity and the amount of radioactive particles. If we have that data, then simply divide by say the entire west coast, which should give the upper limit of radioactivity exposure in the worst case scenario.

I don't suppose anyone has done the calculations?

[starslayer]

So is the radiation fallout going to hit the US west coast with any level that poses a danger to us?

No. Chernobyl, which is still a far worse accident than Fukushima is and is likely to become, had little effect outside the USSR, and even then the radioactive exposure was mostly localized to the areas of Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia closest to the reactor. I would not be surprised if detectable levels of radiation reached the West Coast, but "detectable" and "dangerous" levels are separated by many orders of magnitude. As others have said, there is no need to radiation proof your house, there is no need to go get KI tablets, there is no need to do anything as even the tiniest of precautions on the West Coast.

[Broomstick]

My local weathercaster actually showed a simulation of the radioactive smoke/particles heading across the Pacific. The winds swirl it around, dissipating it in some areas, thinning it in others.

But keep in mind during the time it takes to make the transit the radioactivity will be decaying, and thus less when it arrives at the CONUS west coast. It will also be incredibly diluted by the sheet quantity of the of the Earth's atmosphere.

Can I remind you that the cloud from Chernobyl eventually drifted over North America? Do you remember that? No? Do you know why no one remembers that? Because it was a total non-event.

[AndroAsc]

So is the radiation fallout going to hit the US west coast with any level that poses a danger to us?

No. Chernobyl, which is still a far worse accident than Fukushima is and is likely to become, had little effect outside the USSR, and even then the radioactive exposure was mostly localized to the areas of Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia closest to the reactor. I would not be surprised if detectable levels of radiation reached the West Coast, but "detectable" and "dangerous" levels are separated by many orders of magnitude. As others have said, there is no need to radiation proof your house, there is no need to go get KI tablets, there is no need to do anything as even the tiniest of precautions on the West Coast.

Are there any calculations to back up your claim? Normally, I would agree, but the Japanese have like tens of tons of spent fuel rods at the site of the nuclear reactor from the 20+ years that the reactor was in operation. How does this quantity compare to Chernobyl, they were operational for only 2 years right?

[His Divine Shadow]

b) coal waste will not stay around for tens of thousands of years. Especially the german public is very concerned about the later fact, especially as it turned out that the energy industry colluded with the government to hide facts about the safety and security of the depots. Cancer rates in villages around them are three times higher than in other villages in Germany, but nobody warned the inhabitants of that risk.

Is there any evidence linking these two together, or for the figures? I must ask because so often do I hear things like this without any evidence.

[phongn]

Are there any calculations to back up your claim? Normally, I would agree, but the Japanese have like tens of tons of spent fuel rods at the site of the nuclear reactor from the 20+ years that the reactor was in operation. How does this quantity compare to Chernobyl, they were operational for only 2 years right?

Chernobyl had a giant steam explosion forcing huge amounts of shit into the jetstream, plus the graphite fire.

[Broomstick]

Are there any calculations to back up your claim? Normally, I would agree, but the Japanese have like tens of tons of spent fuel rods at the site of the nuclear reactor from the 20+ years that the reactor was in operation. How does this quantity compare to Chernobyl, they were operational for only 2 years right?

I'm not sure anyone, anywhere has a really solid calculation on that. The real world is messy and complex, and there are a multitude of variables.

For sure the US is monitoring the air not only on the West Coast but in all its Pacific holdings - Hawaii, Guam, Midway, etc. The US is monitoring the air off the coast of Japan. I'm sure dozens of other countries are doing the same. Figuring out what the hell is going on and the effects is now an international and multidisciplinary effort. All predictions will be continually updated with feedback from real-time observations.

What this means is that no one can say 100% what, exactly, will happen. However, radiation does not teleport. In fact, it will move no faster than the weather systems that carry it. IF - and I can't emphasize enough how small a chance this is - IF there is a hazard that the public needs to be aware of we will get some notice on it. There WILL be time to react appropriately. And most likely "appropriately" means "no need to do anything out of the ordinary, because there is no hazard."

The ONLY people who need to worry, at this point, are those in close proximity to the Fukushima plant itself. Right now, that is very few people indeed. Yes, there is slightly higher than normal radiation over a larger portion of Japan, but by all accounts - not just the Japanese government but as the US authorities - the increase in places like Tokyo is about like getting a couple of x-rays. How many x-rays have you already had in your life?

The media needs to stop scaring people, and people need to calm down. This is particularly unfair to the Japanese who, let's face it, have had way more stress this past week than anyone deserves.

[Ekiqa]

Yeah, the irrational fear and disinformation about the hazards of nuclear power is irritating: I'm in an area of Britain where we're building a load of nuclear reactors and lots of people in the public/media are suddenly getting jittery about that, even though the nuclear power stations in my area are very, very unlikely to be subjected to the same sort of once in a century natural disaster and not going to have the same structural/system faults that those very old reactors had, exacerbated by being operated by a corner cutting company.

Britain has already had two nuclear disasters, Chernobyl, which did irradiate parts of Wales that live stock raised there are not safe for human consumption, and in 1957, the Windscale fire, which was hushed up to a large degree when it occoured.
It isn't so irrational when you've had two accidents in living memory, is it?

[Sea Skimmer]

Both those accidents involved graphite moderated piles of crap of the worst design; the Windscale reactor was actually air cooled.

[Exonerate]

You still have the cool the spent fuel. An engineer over on ArsTechnica estimates some 6-8MW of heat input still.

Before I start, I'd just like to attach a disclaimer that I'm just a speculating layman.
Given the rate of water level decrease from an IAEA update of water levels in Unit 5 and the size of the pool: Spoiler

Water level: -40 cm in 5 hours, or -8 cm/hr.
Pool: 40ft x 40ft surface area or ~149000 cm^2
This gives us ~11.9 m^3/hr
Assume water density of 1000 kg/m^3 (I am given to understand the spent fuel pool is not pressurized), which gives us a flow rate of:
~11900 kg/hr
Heat of vaporization of water: ~2260 kJ/kg
~26900000 kJ/hr
or
~7.47 MW

So. Pretty consistent, which doesn't mean a whole lot with the unreliable information coming out. What I'm befuddled about is why are all the temperatures reported by the IAEA are below boiling? Where the fuck is the water going if it's not being boiled away? Unit 4's spent fuel pool temperature is listed as constant between the 14th and 15th of March, which is really odd if you're dumping huge amounts of heat into it. My guess: Their temperature sensor is fucked up and is reporting the wrong temperature when it's actually already boiling. But then we're at a loss to explain why Unit 5's SFP temperature is still rising while simultaneously losing huge amounts of water.

As for how much exposure the West Coast is going to get... Even the NRC is having trouble modeling it, so I doubt anybody can give an accurate answer.