SD.net's World OOC/Discussion thread MK V

[Shroom Man 777]

Hrm... if 2% of Shep's population died in the Civil War... what were those casualty statistics? For every man killed, how many ended up wounded? I'm certain it's not as insignificant as he claims it to be...

As for nuclear war... well, it's inevitable. Goddamn it.

[Coyote]

On Thursday, the 10th, I leave for a two-week NCO course at Ft. Lewis. I won't be back until after the 28th. Trust me, I'd not want to miss out on the planning stages for such a thing.

[MKSheppard]

As for nuclear war... well, it's inevitable. Goddamn it.

It's real funny. Despite people in that chat trying to make Beowulf see the light with regards to an first strike against shepNUKEistan, and how dangerous such theoreticals were, he kept on plowing ahead with the plot, and even mentioned how he had plans to cover the entire UAR as well.

So Shepnukistani authorities concluded that such a plan did exist with a high probability, and thus, the only way to head it off was to pre-emptively strike the MESS before the MESS did said pre-emptive strike.

[Coyote]

And there's anything against idly speculating in a chat, which you weren't invited to?

That's more than idle speculation, and it was real stupid to do it in a chat I frequent regularly and have friends in.

Anyway, the first SUBROCs just initated in Canissia. Weather at Pearl Point is:

Fallout with lethal radiation.

Still, shoulda' checked.

BTW, you just nuked half your ally's navy. Coilerburg will send you a bill, perhaps?

[MKSheppard]

BTW, you just nuked half your ally's navy. Coilerburg will send you a bill, perhaps?

Yeah.

[Beowulf]

[00:15] MHui 421: trying to come up with new and exciting ways to take out shepnukistan
[00:15] MarshalPurnell: STGOD?
[00:15] MHui 421: yes
[00:16] JerisFlame: Isn't that like poking an angry bull with a pointy stick?
[00:16] MHui 421: so far my plans include ortillery, nuclear armed ballistic missiles
[00:16] MHui 421: hypersonic glide vehicles
[00:16] JerisFlame: While the bull has access to a large nuclear arsenal?
[00:16] JerisFlame: And very little compunction against using them?
[00:16] MHui 421: the problem is that the bull is poking us
[00:19] MarshalPurnell: I suppose the only way to deal with Shepnukistan is toss nukes at it until it dies.
[00:19] MarshalPurnell: The problem being, that he will be doing the same to you.
[00:19] MHui 421: actually, the plan is to do a nuclear first strike
[00:20] MHui 421: and hope we can take out enough of his C3 to prevent him from counter striking

It's still use of out of context information in a in context situation.

[MKSheppard]

Hum, so two can play at this game.

MHui 421: trying to come up with new and exciting ways to take out shepnukistan
9:18:59 PM MarshalPurnell: STGOD?
9:19:04 PM MHui 421: yes
9:19:31 PM JerisFlame: Isn't that like poking an angry bull with a pointy stick?
9:19:33 PM MHui 421: so far my plans include ortillery, nuclear armed ballistic missiles
9:19:45 PM MHui 421: hypersonic glide vehicles
9:19:48 PM JerisFlame: While the bull has access to a large nuclear arsenal?
9:20:02 PM JerisFlame: And very little compunction against using them?
9:20:04 PM MHui 421: the problem is that the bull is poking us
9:22:25 PM MarshalPurnell: I suppose the only way to deal with Shepnukistan is toss nukes at it until it dies.
9:22:38 PM MarshalPurnell: The problem being, that he will be doing the same to you.
9:22:41 PM MHui 421: actually, the plan is to do a nuclear first strike
9:23:16 PM MHui 421: and hope we can take out enough of his C3 to prevent him from counter striking
9:24:30 PM MarshalPurnell: I expect he has most of the angles there covered, though.
9:25:31 PM MarshalPurnell: Stealthy cruise missiles, stealth bombers, smuggle the nuke inside the port, that sort of thing might be marginally effective.
9:26:02 PM MHui 421: he's shep... he's not going the stealth route, but rather the high and fast route
9:26:15 PM MarshalPurnell: Doesn't mean you can't.
9:26:55 PM MHui 421: well, there's always arming F-35Cs with nuclear free fall bombs...
9:26:57 PM MarshalPurnell: The problem is that I just don't see any way you can get a strike off on him, that he can't retaliate against.
9:27:19 PM MHui 421: strike him hard and fast enough that he can't
9:27:32 PM MHui 421: that's the point of the ortillery, BTW
9:28:04 PM MarshalPurnell: Artillery has, at best, an 80km range with a Bull-style base-bleed artillery ammunition.
9:28:22 PM MHui 421: orbital kinetic weaponry, not artillery
9:32:55 PM MarshalPurnell: Ah.
9:33:05 PM MarshalPurnell: Best used for precision strikes on C3 nodes.
9:33:27 PM MarshalPurnell: Simeltaneous with stealth attacks on his airbases, and any missile silos he has.
9:34:17 PM MHui 421: the kinetic weaponry has a energy yield of about 60 kT
9:37:15 PM JerisFlame: If we're talking about Shep, he probably has plans for this.
9:37:22 PM JerisFlame: In detail.
9:38:35 PM MHui 421: well, shep has the misapprehension that orbital kinetic weaponry is not as useful as it is for me... in part due to another kinetic system existing in the STGOD, but being equipped differently, such that it's much less power
9:39:36 PM MHui 421: shep also has many, many more targets to service than his opposition does
9:40:09 PM JerisFlame: True, but he's also probably totally prepared to do a Global Thermonuclear War.
9:40:30 PM MHui 421: almost certainly
9:40:33 PM JerisFlame: This is Shep we're talking about.
9:41:15 PM MHui 421: but he's based most of his strategic deterrant around bombers, being the SAC nut he is
9:41:31 PM MHui 421: and world he's in doesn't give much reaction time
9:42:03 PM MHui 421: the previously mentioned ortillery would give him 3 minutes to get birds into the air
9:42:41 PM MarshalPurnell: Which may very well mean launch on warning.
9:42:58 PM MarshalPurnell: Which is insane, but necessary with that little reaction time.
9:42:58 PM MHui 421: which means we can't give him warning
9:43:02 PM Svetlana Luchenko: Back.
9:43:16 PM MarshalPurnell: No, I mean, when his radars pick up the ortillery, he lets everything fly.
9:43:45 PM MHui 421: it's orbitting. his radars are always going to be picking up the ortillery
9:44:00 PM MarshalPurnell: Their descent will be rather obvious, if shortly.
9:44:23 PM Svetlana Luchenko: They may very well have orders to launch when they see the guns being manned, Beo.
9:44:24 PM MarshalPurnell: Which means maybe just enough time to get a message off to the NCA and authorize them to launch in a snap decision.
9:44:27 PM Svetlana Luchenko: If they have that little time.
9:44:31 PM Svetlana Luchenko: Worse, Chris.
9:44:36 PM Svetlana Luchenko: he might have it on local authority.
9:44:36 PM MHui 421: and even then, he wouldn't necessarily be able to get his orders out before the impactors hit
9:44:42 PM MarshalPurnell: Or, a local authority.
9:44:43 PM Svetlana Luchenko: i.e., national commander orders are not required.
9:44:53 PM Svetlana Luchenko: Which would be insane, but perfectly in line with Shep.
9:44:57 PM MarshalPurnell: Which is insane, but what else can you do with 3 minutes warning time?
9:45:03 PM MHui 421: i've been doing a bit of disinformation to keep him from believing that he has that little time as well
9:45:32 PM MarshalPurnell: Well, that's something his nuclear structure would either accomodate already, or wouldn't.
9:45:50 PM MHui 421: i've got him convinced that orbital kinetic weaponry is useless
9:46:00 PM MarshalPurnell: If he's set it up that NCA authorization is necessary, it's too late to delegate to local authority.
9:47:21 PM MHui 421: he's also made no move to give himself ballistic missile early warning
9:47:45 PM MHui 421: such as space based infrared systems
9:47:54 PM MarshalPurnell: Sounds like he's left himself wide open then.
9:48:13 PM MarshalPurnell: Don't you just need really big radars?
9:48:35 PM JerisFlame: He's probably counting on people not wanting to risk his birds launching.
9:48:47 PM MHui 421: sure that'd work, except he's got a potentially hostile country within artillery range
9:48:52 PM MarshalPurnell: He probably assumes any satellites would be taken out by ASAT weapons priority to launch.
9:48:53 PM Svetlana Luchenko: Or he simply plans to attack first.
9:48:58 PM Svetlana Luchenko: We can't ignore that.
9:49:10 PM Svetlana Luchenko: He may simply attack first during any potential crisis
9:49:13 PM Svetlana Luchenko: before you can escalate.
9:49:35 PM MHui 421: which is why the MESS is currently planning a nuclear first strike, in the absence of a crisis
9:49:43 PM MHui 421: which is completely insane
9:49:56 PM MHui 421: but seems to have the best chance of success
9:50:00 PM MarshalPurnell: So, use the orbital weapons to take out his NCA and follow it up with conventional counter-force strukes.
9:50:23 PM MarshalPurnell: Unless he delegated authority to launch for local commanders, that should work.
9:50:39 PM Svetlana Luchenko: Nuclear Pearl Harbour!
9:50:47 PM MHui 421: yes
9:50:51 PM MarshalPurnell: Because no one will be able to authorize launch in between wiping out his leadership and following it up with cruise missiles and IRBMs.
9:50:59 PM Svetlana Luchenko: He probably has designated authority to local commanders.
9:51:35 PM MarshalPurnell: If he has, there's not really much you could do except maybe build more orbital weapons, a lot more, and try to use those for a counterforce strike.
9:51:45 PM MHui 421: which is why i'm going to be putting up enough orbital weaponry to take out his airfields and silos
9:51:51 PM MarshalPurnell: If he put all his eggs in bombers you might be able to catch them on the ground.
9:52:08 PM MHui 421: he's got some crazy silo based bomber
9:52:10 PM MarshalPurnell: Though I doubt you could stop his ICBMs from launching in that case.
9:52:37 PM MHui 421: basically an armed version of dynasoar
9:52:56 PM MarshalPurnell: Need to be able to bust those silos, then.
9:53:05 PM MarshalPurnell: 60kt probably won't come close.
9:53:06 PM MHui 421: 60 kT impactors
9:53:35 PM MarshalPurnell: Need something in the hundreds of kt unless those impactors are hyper-accurate.
9:53:48 PM MHui 421: they're probably only hardened against blast, not direct impact
9:53:56 PM Svetlana Luchenko: Not sure about that.
9:54:02 PM MHui 421: GPS/INS guided
9:54:04 PM Svetlana Luchenko: It IS possible to harden against direct impact.
9:54:57 PM MHui 421: well, yes, it's possible. but it's doubtful he believes that the silos need to be hardened to the degree that they'd have to be
9:56:15 PM JerisFlame: Have you got Skimmer covered too?
9:56:38 PM MHui 421: i'm planning on putting up nearly a thousand kinetic impactors
9:56:54 PM Svetlana Luchenko: 65,000 psi was achieved in the 1980s
9:56:54 PM JerisFlame: That's not going to sound any alarm bells.
9:56:59 PM Svetlana Luchenko: with concrete for the proposed Peacekeeper
9:57:02 PM Svetlana Luchenko: Silos that were never built.
9:57:17 PM Svetlana Luchenko: That's probably capable of resisting even a direct nuclear impactor.
9:57:27 PM Svetlana Luchenko: Of that small of size.
9:57:34 PM MHui 421: it should be enough to roughly paste all of both countries C3 centers
9:57:49 PM MHui 421: it's a 4 ton impactor moving at 360 km/s
9:58:14 PM Svetlana Luchenko: Ahh. Hmm.
9:58:38 PM MHui 421: (roughly... depends on where in the orbit the engine fires)
10:04:13 PM MHui 421: i'm nearly certain i've got shep convinced that i think orbital kinetic weaponry is useless, so he won't suspect that I'm actually putting up kinetic impactors
10:04:30 PM MarshalPurnell: Eh well, should be fun either way.
10:04:42 PM MarshalPurnell: Weee-haw!
10:04:58 PM MHui 421: probably be a august when we pull off the attack
10:05:25 PM MHui 421: various allies need to be able to realistically get things into play before we do it
10:05:27 PM MarshalPurnell: I suppose you want everything in place.
10:06:12 PM MHui 421: it may be september, because that gives us even more stuff to put into play
10:06:29 PM MHui 421: and shep did manage to give himself a plot where he had a nuclear civil war
10:06:40 PM MHui 421: so his economy shouldn't be in very good shape
10:06:48 PM MarshalPurnell: Rather not.

[Coyote]

As for nuclear war... well, it's inevitable. Goddamn it.

It's real funny. Despite people in that chat trying to make Beowulf see the light with regards to an first strike against shepNUKEistan, and how dangerous such theoreticals were, he kept on plowing ahead with the plot. So Shepnukistani authorities concluded that such a plan did exist with a high probability, and thus, the only way to head it off was to pre-emptively strike the MESS before the MESS did said pre-emptive strike.

The problem with that scenario is that there wasn't, in fact, any such plan. I'd've like to have known about it, for example, and I posted in th eMess that I'd be out of town and AFK for 2 weeks-- the prime 2 weeks that would be needed for planning. You can check with Marina, I was going to stop by for a visit after getting released from Ft. Lewis and treat her to dinner.

Considering I'm one of the most active MESS players in the game, and it would be hard to do anything against Shepnukistan without support from Canissia, that'd be some oddly poor planning on the types of folks who can plan April Fool's Day six months in advance almost to the hour.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Does that mean the game is over now? Wow.. ended by.. some random act of... what?

[MKSheppard]

The problem with that scenario is that there wasn't, in fact, any such plan.

Svetlana Luchenko: He may simply attack first during any potential crisis before you can escalate.

MHui 421: which is why the MESS is currently planning a nuclear first strike, in the absence of a crisis which is completely insane but seems to have the best chance of success

[snip]

MHui 421:probably be a august when we pull off the attack, various allies need to be able to realistically get things into play before we do it -- it may be september, because that gives us even more stuff to put into play

In planning, you don't affix a solid, real world date to something; unless you actually plan on executing it

That is why military plans use terms such as D+5, D+10, rather than July 5, 2008 and July 10, 2008.

I should know, because I've read the War Plans that the US put together to invade a whole bunch of countries in the 1920s and 1930s; and well, the language Beowulf used is pretty damn unambigious to military planners in Shepnukistan.

[Shroom Man 777]

I... don't even want to look.

[Raj Ahten]

Well So Shep has the nuclear war he has wanted for a long time. What else would he want when he nukes a city for the loss of one aircraft? He didn't even make a fucking attempt to rescue the crew. He is first striking based on a rumor. He was just looking for an excuse; he would've nuked everyone eventually.

Now he gets to eat orbital death satellites and get his country made uninhabitable by Stas. And I get to have a shitload of contractors killed in Neverhood. That is assuming Shep doesn't just nuke Indhopal for the hell of it, despite the fact that Indhopal is one of two non UAR nations that does serious amounts of business with him.

[Coyote]

9:49:35 PM MHui 421: which is why the MESS is currently planning a nuclear first strike, in the absence of a crisis

This is the closest thing you have to 'evidence', but it relates to what I said-- we had discussed that if we were going to take out the UAR, we'd have to do it in a coordinated first strike, and that such would be the only way to really pull it off.

We agreed that would be the case, debated whether or not to include Skimmer in the plan and even discussed Skimmer's low participation rate and figured we may be able to just ignore him and when he checked in sometime later it would be fait accompli. (I knew as soon as we started doing this you'd PM him, so I didn't think that would last, although I didn't mention it).

I've been very carefully posting the progress made on my THELs, and I'm certainly not satisfied with their coverage yet. I wouldn't sign on to a plan before I had the means in place to at least try to secure myself. I am your most logical first-strike target, after all, being a stone's throw away.

I mean, in the long run, it's a pain in the ass because I would want to be here, in control of my nation while this went off, but at the same time it's the inevitable abyss we've been putting off ever since this started. You can tell by IC and OOC posts that we've pretty much accepted this is going to happen sooner or later. But, hey, if we do it this way then Shep's the one who starts a nuclear war based on faulty intel, and our hands are clean, at least.

[MKSheppard]

This is the closest thing you have to 'evidence'

And having a specific date range - August to September isn't?

[Beowulf]

The problem with that scenario is that there wasn't, in fact, any such plan.

Svetlana Luchenko: He may simply attack first during any potential crisis before you can escalate.

MHui 421: which is why the MESS is currently planning a nuclear first strike, in the absence of a crisis which is completely insane but seems to have the best chance of success

[snip]

MHui 421:probably be a august when we pull off the attack, various allies need to be able to realistically get things into play before we do it -- it may be september, because that gives us even more stuff to put into play

In planning, you don't affix a solid, real world date to something; unless you actually plan on executing it

That is why military plans use terms such as D+5, D+10, rather than July 5, 2008 and July 10, 2008.

I should know, because I've read the War Plans that the US put together to invade a whole bunch of countries in the 1920s and 1930s; and well, the language Beowulf used is pretty damn unambigious to military planners in Shepnukistan.

Right, so if I were doing a military plan, I'd be doing that, instead of a plan based off of what large weapon systems the MESS has been public working on, to come to fruition in real life August or September. Fuck off Shep.

[Coyote]

This is the closest thing you have to 'evidence'

And having a specific date range - August to September isn't?

I'm as serious as cancer-- this is the first time I'd heard of a solid plan, with a go-date, and an actual OPLAN, and all that. Our "plan" so far, discussed in the Mess, was that "a first strike is the only way to take him out." and that "it would be a good idea to build on". From that decision, no further solid plans were made, and we went into space program details.

So I don't exactly deny that we were thinking about it-- but I'm here to tell you that we had zero by means of concrete planning. Just the agreement that "someday" we'd build towards it.

[Raj Ahten]

Look, we all knew Shep wanted to play world wide thermonuclear war. It has been obvious for quite a while. Why else would he be using nukes as he has? If he wasn't launching based on this, he would have launched based on something else. I wouldn't put it past him to have preemptively nuked the FUN in a bit because they were going nuclear. Then the balance of power would have been too far against him and he wouldn't necessarily be able to end the world with just one real ally.

Really the best option I could’ve seen with a player having Shep's outlook would be a massive preemptive strike against him by everyone else that allows most of the world to keep on living, though with massive unavoidable damage. With Shep launching first, more people are dead, but Shepnukistan and Sadaamistan are still screwed by Mr. Bean’s satellites and Stas's cobalt bombs, so fuck them. The UAR can die and the rest of the players can move on.

[Coyote]

By sheer dint of population, MESS and moreover, FUN can ride it out. UAR, on the other hand, will quickly reach a point of diminished returns for sustainability very quickly. I say ride it out. We knew the storm was coming, even though each time we dodged it at the last minute...

We'll have a post-apocalyptic scenario for a bit, the population will go to half, but overall... let's go ahead and get it over with.

[Raj Ahten]

Hell, maybe we can get a world government out of the deal then be invaded by aliens, hollow earth nazis or the like!

[MKSheppard]

Look, we all knew Shep wanted to play world wide thermonuclear war.

If that was the case, why did I back down during the First Global Crisis and agree to negotiation at Atlantis?

Why else would he be using nukes as he has?

Because the UAR sees nuclear weapons as just really big conventional weapons?

If he wasn't launching based on this, he would have launched based on something else.

I'm launching based on the knowledge of a pre-emptive strike planned and dated on the UAR. Due to the arrangement and location of SDN World (everything crammed together in a giant archipelago); I have just too little warning time to weather a surprise attack and then retalitate. So I'm attacking first to limit damage to the UAR.

I wouldn't put it past him to have preemptively nuked the FUN in a bit because they were going nuclear.

Why would I want to nuke the FUN? They put the FUN in the game. SHROOOOOOOMMMMY!

With Shep launching first, more people are dead, but Shepnukistan and Sadaamistan are still screwed by Mr. Bean’s satellites and Stas's cobalt bombs, so fuck them.

I wouldn't put your faith in doomsday salted bombs. The mathy for them always assumes near-optimal wind dispersal patterns, which never happens in real life; and intensely radioactive isotopes have very short half-lives by their nature....

[Beowulf]

Why don't you just admit you're nuking everyone for the hell of it? Your only evidence is two lines, one of which refers to a nebulous "MESS" wide plot, and the second is a pair of real life months which don't match up with your post.

[MKSheppard]

Why don't you just admit you're nuking everyone for the hell of it? Your only evidence is two lines

Yeah, lets ignore the heavy discussion over strategic issues concerning early warning time and bomber dispersal/scrambling times, e.g the chances of how likely it would be that UAR assets would be caught on the ground before they could launch in the event of an attack, due to the extremely compressed time frame of any attack.

Therefore, to save my nation from a devastating pre-emptive strike, I had no other choice but to attack first, and hit YOUR assets before they could launch/deploy.

Secondly; if I was nuking everyone for the hell of it, then:

--Why have FUN targets not been targeted?
--Why has Byzantium not been targeted, despite being a MESS Member?

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Why don't you just admit you're nuking everyone for the hell of it? Your only evidence is two lines

Yeah, lets ignore the heavy discussion over strategic issues concerning early warning time and bomber dispersal/scrambling times, e.g the chances of how likely it would be that UAR assets would be caught on the ground before they could launch in the event of an attack, due to the extremely compressed time frame of any attack.

Therefore, to save my nation from a devastating pre-emptive strike, I had no other choice but to attack first, and hit YOUR assets before they could launch/deploy.

Secondly; if I was nuking everyone for the hell of it, then:

--Why have FUN targets not been targeted?
--Why has Byzantium not been targeted, despite being a MESS Member?

Because Stas will retaliate as well, and then FUN will also be dragged in. Yeah, as if it wasn't obvious.

[K. A. Pital]

Why have FUN targets not been targeted?

Because that's endgame.

[MKSheppard]

Because that's endgame.

And also because I love Shroomy. In a non-sexual way.