Kosovo Negotiations break down.

[MKSheppard]

Link

Negotiations fail to settle Kosovo's fate
December 8, 2007

By David R. Sands - A diplomatic train wreck eight years in the making appeared all but certain yesterday as U.S., European and Russian mediators admitted failure in a last-ditch attempt to reach a deal in the volatile standoff over the fate of the Serbian province of Kosovo.

"After 120 days of intensive negotiations, the parties were unable to reach an agreement on Kosovo's status," negotiators said in a report to be officially delivered Monday to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

"Neither side was willing to yield on the basic question of sovereignty," the mediators stated.

In the face of Russian objections, NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels pledged to beef up a 16,000-member international peace force in Kosovo, whose Albanian majority appears determined to declare independence from Belgrade before the winter is out.

The province has been in a kind of legal limbo since 1999, when NATO air strikes drove out the forces of then-Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, accused of atrocities and ethnic cleansing against the Kosovo Albanian community.

Serbia, strongly backed by Moscow, has rejected the idea of Kosovo independence and a lengthy United Nations mediation program has failed to produce a compromise. The United States and leading European Union powers are expected to endorse a unilateral Kosovo declaration of independence, but there are huge questions marks over what happens next.

Council on Foreign Relations European specialist Charles Kupchan said Kosovo right now is a "tense, ugly place."

If Serbia resists Kosovo's attempt to break away — or if Serbian communities inside Kosovo reject the province's independence bid — "we could actually see bloodshed in the Balkans again next year," Mr. Kupchan said.

Kosovo has unexpectedly become a flash point in the deteriorating relations between Russia and the West, with Moscow giving signs it would veto any bid by Kosovo to join the United Nations if it breaks with Belgrade. Russia and Serbia argue there is no precedent for the world body endorsing the secession of territory from a member-state without its approval.

The U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing the peacekeeping force now in Kosovo also explicitly recognizes Serbia's sovereignty, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday after meeting NATO ministers in Brussels.

"Anybody who goes in contravention of this is on a very slippery downward slope," he warned. "It certainly won't help the stability of Europe."

U.S. and EU officials argue that, given Serbia's record of violence and oppression, Kosovo's Albanian majority — an estimated 90 percent of the province's 2 million people — will never accept rule from Belgrade again. Many fear ethnic Albanians will turn to violence if they are left in limbo much longer.

"We have to move on to the next step," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told reporters after the NATO-Russia talks. "It is not going to produce stability in the Balkans to ignore the reality of the situation."

The deadline for the last-ditch U.N. mediation effort expires Monday. Analysts say the Kosovo government will likely wait a few weeks before declaring independence, to give time for U.S. and European commanders to prepare for any violence.

The Balkans is a region notorious for diplomatic and military chain reactions, and the Kosovo crisis is no exception.

Some Serbian officials are already speculating that the Serb-dominated towns of northern Kosovo will reject independence, demanding to stay within Serbia.

Western diplomats have warned against breaking up Kosovo, but former Serbian Premier Zoran Zivkovic said it may be the "only avenue" left to avoid major bloodshed.

Mr. Kupchan said the ripples could quickly expand beyond that, with other enclaves in the Balkans demanding borders be redrawn, and other ethnic standoffs as far afield as Georgia, Russia and Azerbaijan citing the "Kosovo precedent" to demand their own state.

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The US position on this is incredibly stupid -- we're backing the local version of jihadis against a legimitate government, which is exactly what the fuck the kosovars were -- a bunch of jihadis out to make their own state and ethnically cleanse everyone else -- which has happened since NATO began "patrolling" Kosovo; Serbian churches, etc have been burned down and the province has been ethnically cleansed of Serbs

[Netko]

Fuck off with the jihadist bullshit Shep. The Kosovars (or Kosovo Albanians) aren't Wahabbists or any of the other extreme versions of Islam that tend to promote, along with cultural factors, the "jihadist" mindset. Its equally absurd as calling Turks or Bosniaks Jihadist. The culture and the local brand of Islam, not to mention connections with existing terrorist organizations, just aren't there for them to be called that. Over in Bosnia, which practices the same brand of Islam (as well as in Kosovo tempered with secular humanism do to ex-Yu - there are exactly 0 calls for Sharia law and all the other crap you get in ME countries), the Wahabbists are getting turfed out of Mosques and severely opposed by the local Muslim community.

That said, the likelyhood of me being disappointed in my hopes of the Albanians doing the right thing and not terrorizing and worse Kosovo's Serb minority seems high. Its very likely that at least the 100000 or so Kosovar Serbs living in packets in mid and southern Kosovo will (voluntarily or not) be displaced into Serb-dominated northern Kosovo and Serbia proper. That northern Kosovo part is one of the major issues and a lot could depend on how it will be handled. There are a lot of unknowns right now and depending on how they shake up we could have anything from temporary crisis to full blown war down in Kosovo, and even more worryingly next door in Bosnia. Those factors include:

• How will Serbia react? Will it get militarily involved (right now they claim they will only deploy up to the Kosovo-Serbia proper border, however depending on the situation in Kosovo the domestic pressure in Serbia to intervene might be overwhelming)? How much, if any, will they support the various paramilitaries that are springing up and plan to head to Kosovo? Will they turn a blind eye on them or will they actively try to suppress them? Will Serbia remain on the path to NATO and the EU or will they decide to swing fully towards Russia's willing embrace?
• How will the Albanians treat the Serbs in Kosovo? Will we see some compromise with the northern Serb part, including autonomy, extra minority rights or even possibly its return to Serbia or will they stubbornly insist on territorial integrity and Albanian/Kosovar domination? How well, if at all, will they keep their paramilitaries in check? What will KFOR do and how will it position itself towards the almost inevitable rights violations of the Serbs?
• What will Serbia do in Bosnia as a response to Kosovo's independence? If you perhaps missed it, there's currently a constitutional crisis there do to the Bosnian Serbs abandoning the joint government do to their refusal to participate in the Croat/Bosniak/international community push for greater federal power, specifically a unified police force (a requirement for EU/NATO membership). The big question here is will Serbia (who is still more or less the puppetmaster of the B. Serbs) force them back to the negotiating table, do nothing, or stir up their independence/Serbia joining feelings?

Its all a big interconnected mess where general outcomes depend a lot on a lot of very specific choices that could at this point go either way. Even with a lot more info we in the "Region" are getting, a prognosis is difficult to formulate. My personal opinion, which I don't give a lot of confidence wrt its likelyhood, is that we'll almost certainly see violent death on both sides in Kosovo, with a low chance of it turning into a classic war do to KFOR and Serbia not wanting to yet again get bombed. However, I have no idea what they'll do with the paramilitaries. Similarly, I have no idea what to think about the situation in Bosnia, especially in the context of Kosovar independence and Serbian fanning of the flames of the B. Serbs independence/joining tendencies. There, I don't see war as being possible at this point (sadly, it helps that the two entities, and especially RS, are ethnically cleansed of the "undesirable" ethnicity(ies)), however, on the other hand, its clear the Dayton agreement, while necessary to end the war, is a poor constitution/basis for governmental organization. Whatever happens, the status quo of the last 10 years is dying and will need to be replaced with a new one.

Sadly, it seems that Kosovo, Serbia, Bosnia and indirectly the rest of the Region (Balkans+) and Europe are going to be on the receiving end of the old Chinese proverb "May you live in interesting times" in 2008.

[K. A. Pital]

How will the Albanians treat the Serbs in Kosovo?

I thought that's pretty clear. Cleanse them. They already have cleansed out 200,000 (permanently) and cleansing other 100,000, especially with the pathetic NATO "oversight" in the region would be cakewalk.

What's more worrying... It's really not hard to imagine them doing it, then Serbia going apeshit and declaring war.

However, the cleansing in Kosovo is ongoing, so I doubt the independence will do anyting but just speed the process up.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

You know, in a sane world, we would just split Kosovo in two, give part of it to Serbia, and part of it to Albania, and deploy a patrol force along the border for two decades or so. In the real world, however, it makes more sense to refuse to admit you fucked up and that the Kosovoars are equally murderous little perfidious bastards, and instead back them to the hilt even though it could result in a war and another round of ethnic cleansing in the Balkans.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

You know, in a sane world, we would just split Kosovo in two, give part of it to Serbia, and part of it to Albania, and deploy a patrol force along the border for two decades or so. In the real world, however, it makes more sense to refuse to admit you fucked up and that the Kosovoars are equally murderous little perfidious bastards, and instead back them to the hilt even though it could result in a war and another round of ethnic cleansing in the Balkans.

It irks me more than half the fucking world doesn't know what the fuck is going on in Kosovo, and some still hail the US as a saviour for what they did in Kosovo when in truth they just added oil to the fire that has been simmering for decades to a century.

[K. A. Pital]

You know, in a sane world, we would just split Kosovo in two, give part of it to Serbia, and part of it to Albania, and deploy a patrol force along the border for two decades or so.

Yeah, since Kosovo Serbs have been forced to concentrate in the North, I guess that's the only sane way they and their homes could be protected. But even speak anything like that to Kosovo Albanians and they'd shitstorm you about their "territorial integrity".

[K. A. Pital]

It irks me more than half the fucking world doesn't know what the fuck is going on in Kosovo, and some still hail the US as a saviour for what they did in Kosovo when in truth they just added oil to the fire that has been simmering for decades to a century.

Not just Kosovo. In fact, it would be better if it were just Kosovo. The truth is that the US bombed the shit out of all ouf Yugoslavia, targeting bridges and powerplants. Causing massive infrastructure damage, which greatly knifed the regions' economy.

[Netko]

I thought that's pretty clear. Cleanse them. They already have cleansed out 200,000 (permanently) and cleansing other 100,000, especially with the pathetic NATO "oversight" in the region would be cakewalk.

Conceded, unfortunately, on the 100000 dispersed in the province (country?) - as I noted above. The northern Kosovo question is a big one, though. If some sort of acceptable compromise is reached about it (whatever it might be), it could stop the crisis from further expanding. It could be just the right positive impetus to do it - or at least give the cover needed for the government in Belgrade to clamp down on the extremists.

I'm not terribly optimistic about it though. A month ago when we had the similar topic I was relatively optimistic and even somewhat dismissive of the potential for the situation to spiral into something really nasty, however, with the increased coverage of the situation do to the approaching deadline, there has been a lot more news locally - and almost all of it has been bad. Even when interviewing very pro-western Serbs (ie people not doing the nationalistic "Kosovo is the cradle of the Serbian nation" rallying cry), they describe the situation as the results ranging from "bad" to "catastrophic" with "catastrophic" being Kosovo independence and all the bad stuff that may potentially trigger - and they consider that the most likely scenario. So I just don't know - I still think outright war (ie Serbian military intervention into Albanian-held areas in Kosovo) is unlikely, however everything else seems to be on the table from where I'm looking at it, and a lot of the possibilities are very bad. And on top of that is the potential Bosnian situation or rather Serbia forcing the situation in Bosnia to deteriorate for various, mostly internal, reasons (revenge, mollifying the radical opposition by using Kosovo independence as a precedent for RS independence, etc.).

[Netko]

It irks me more than half the fucking world doesn't know what the fuck is going on in Kosovo, and some still hail the US as a saviour for what they did in Kosovo when in truth they just added oil to the fire that has been simmering for decades to a century.

Not so much added oil to the fire as set up a ticking time bomb set to go off in the next few months. If they were decisive and forced independence right then and there in 1999. (pretty much impossible do to Russian actions), the situation would have stabilized one way or another by now (do to Serbia being in no shape to object at that point). As it is, now that the "bomb" - bad compromise of leaving Kosovo in a limbo - is going off, we get to have another crisis. Similarly to some spectacularly bad decision in the Dayton agreement creating the crisis in BiH right now (great timing that...).

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

It irks me more than half the fucking world doesn't know what the fuck is going on in Kosovo, and some still hail the US as a saviour for what they did in Kosovo when in truth they just added oil to the fire that has been simmering for decades to a century.

Not just Kosovo. In fact, it would be better if it were just Kosovo. The truth is that the US bombed the shit out of all ouf Yugoslavia, targeting bridges and powerplants. Causing massive infrastructure damage, which greatly knifed the regions' economy.

Seriously speaking, some people seem not to _get_ that there's nothing altruistic behind all these grandstanding words.

What bugs me, is what the EU and US stand to gain from all this, or is this just some rightwinger's anti-Russian crusade?

[Netko]

You know, in a sane world, we would just split Kosovo in two, give part of it to Serbia, and part of it to Albania, and deploy a patrol force along the border for two decades or so. In the real world, however, it makes more sense to refuse to admit you fucked up and that the Kosovoars are equally murderous little perfidious bastards, and instead back them to the hilt even though it could result in a war and another round of ethnic cleansing in the Balkans.

Actually, Albania doesn't want them - Kosovo is even poorer then Albania and Albania has finally managed to get reforms going in the last couple of years and, as strange as that sounds, might be in a position to join the EU around 2020. Assimilating Kosovo would set them back majorly - it would be a situation on a relative scale of German unification. So similarly as Serbia with RS to this day, and Croatia back during the Bosnian war with the Herceg-Bosna, they're supporting "their side" in the conflict for various reasons, but they want those dirty primitive poor "cousins" to stay in their governmental entity and not screw up the mother-country.

[K. A. Pital]

Actually, Albania doesn't want them

Well, Albania did take it's share in sponsoring the Kosovo militias, so NATO could bring it up to tabel for sponsoring terrorism and demand it comply with the new plan.

Of course, that'd never happen.

[Netko]

Seriously speaking, some people seem not to _get_ that there's nothing altruistic behind all these grandstanding words.

What bugs me, is what the EU and US stand to gain from all this, or is this just some rightwinger's anti-Russian crusade?

Possible really bad precedent. With Kosovo's independence, at this point, they can point to it and say that it was necessary do to the talks that lasted years breaking down and there being no other option to end the status quo, however if countries and other entities start getting chopped up for realpolitik reasons it would disturb the balance and would cause a nasty precedent for a lot of places - a lot of which, coincidently, are located in major EU countries and as such it is their interest to not allow "casual" redrawing of borders (Spain, UK, etc.). So any territorial decisions will have to come from Priština-Belgrade talks and not be imposed from outside, which is obviously a major problem since its very likely another impasse like the one reached in the current talks will be reached ("must be independence" vs "must not be independence" now, "territorial integrity must be observed, no additional rights to minorities/Serbs" vs "the north must be allowed to secede" then). I really really hope I'm wrong about that because, as I've noted, reaching a compromise on northern Kosovo could really stop this crisis dead in its tracks, however I don't think its very likely.

[Adrian Laguna]

Question: Why the the US intervene in the region in the first place? It was a local issue, why not let the locals sort it out?

[Sea Skimmer]

Question: Why the the US intervene in the region in the first place? It was a local issue, why not let the locals sort it out?

The number one reason would be endless media reports, which more or less all turned out to be complete bullshit, about Serbs engaging in mass atrocities and throwing thousands of bodies into bomb crater. Pretty soon everyone in NATO was raving that since atrocities had occurred in Bosnia, this new war must have also been a Serbian led genocide. The brilliant plan to end the supposed genocide was then a multi month bombing campaign, rather then a swift ground invasion.

[Netko]

Somewhat oversimplified but; guilt over fucking up by doing nothing previously (Croatia and Bosnia) and even going along with the arms embargo which benefited the Serbs, which turned up to be a disaster on multiple levels. Disaster being a light description considering that the conflicts created the term "ethnic cleansing". The term "ethnic cleansing" actually comes from BCS "etničko čiščenje", which could be more accurately translated as "ethnically policing the terrain" as in "policing the brass" - the term used for cleaning up any spent cartridges after firing. The term "čišćenje terena" - "policing the terrain" was in common military usage for securing the terrain (from any enemy military units that might have remained in it when it was overrun), the addition of "etničko" - "ethnically" added the dread overtones to the meaning that besides any military forces, any members of the targeted ethnicity would also have to be secured/removed/killed/etc. However the "ethnic cleansing" translation brings with it a unique dread of sterility of its own.

So when the Serbs got involved in yet another Balkan war/cleansing campaign, they got stomped on. Personally, I think they got what was coming to them, karmic justice and all, however that doesn't lessen the fact that the Dayton agreements' necessary faults and the vastly imperfect status quo in Kosovo do to the circumstances at the end of the conflict are now causing new crisis and that it would have been better that strength was found in the first place to solve both those situations back then rather then letting them fester and pop now.