Regarding oil price agan...

[Sarevok]

It is at $ 58.92 as of this post according to http://www.oil-price.net/. According their provided graph oil has been steadily climbing since April. This is quite high from the very low prices since the rock bottom fall. Is there a chance this trend could continue and we could see a repeat of the 2008 oil prices again ?

[Chardok]

Will we see 2008 prices again? It is inevitable. It is the nature of a diminishing resource - the question is when and will it be even more because of the devaluation of the dollar (Assuming we do not switch to euros). The really sad thing is that this lull in prices has not translated to a stupid low price at the pumps - but still low enough to cause the comfort level to increase and make stupid americans more and more willing to purchase ridiculous SUVs.

[Edi]

(Assuming we do not switch to euros).

Be a cold day in hell and then some before the US switches to euros, for various reasons. It's not politically doable in the US and not acceptable to the EU on any level. The only answer from the EU the whole idea would get is a huge collective "Fuck you!" because the US would never be given the kind of control over EU monetary and other economic policies that it would demand.

If the dollar goes down the tubes and ends up being like the Weimar Mark, it's going to do so quite on its own.

[Chardok]

(Assuming we do not switch to euros).

Be a cold day in hell and then some before the US switches to euros, for various reasons. It's not politically doable in the US and not acceptable to the EU on any level. The only answer from the EU the whole idea would get is a huge collective "Fuck you!" because the US would never be given the kind of control over EU monetary and other economic policies that it would demand.

If the dollar goes down the tubes and ends up being like the Weimar Mark, it's going to do so quite on its own.

Sorry, sorry, I meant valuation of oil in Euros instead of dollars, not switching currency types for general use.

[Edi]

(Assuming we do not switch to euros).

Be a cold day in hell and then some before the US switches to euros, for various reasons. It's not politically doable in the US and not acceptable to the EU on any level. The only answer from the EU the whole idea would get is a huge collective "Fuck you!" because the US would never be given the kind of control over EU monetary and other economic policies that it would demand.

If the dollar goes down the tubes and ends up being like the Weimar Mark, it's going to do so quite on its own.

Sorry, sorry, I meant valuation of oil in Euros instead of dollars, not switching currency types for general use.

Oh, okay. Yeah, I can see that now, it just reads different without context. I've made similar mistakes myself, so no problem.

[Alferd Packer]

The really sad thing is that this lull in prices has not translated to a stupid low price at the pumps - but still low enough to cause the comfort level to increase and make stupid americans more and more willing to purchase ridiculous SUVs.

Except far fewer people can afford them, now. Rather, people who got their huge SUVS on cheap credit alone can't do it anymore, which means that the vast majority of Americans are simply priced out of large SUV ownership right now. Sure, wealthy Americans can still afford them, but their numbers are, frankly, shrinking.

Additionally, I recall seeing an article here in N&P (I think) which discussed the emerging culture of thrift that this recession is producing. The article suggested that after the recession has ended, the culture of thrift will remain. In light of this, $45,000+ SUVs that get 12 MPG should remain an extremely tough sell to the average family--certainly moreso than they were five years ago.

[Marcus Aurelius]

Will we see 2008 prices again? It is inevitable. It is the nature of a diminishing resource - the question is when and will it be even more because of the devaluation of the dollar (Assuming we do not switch to euros).

Not necessarily. If the economy can't withstand prices like July 2008 again, demand destruction will keep the prices lower than that. In practice demand destruction of course means recession and depression, but the fact that a resource is dwindling does not automatically make the prices sky high. Nobody actually knows how high the oil prices can get before demand destruction hits even the industrialized countries: some people estimate that $150 is the limit and the ongoing global recession was actually partly caused by the high oil prices in 2008. There is even some evidence to support that notion, but of course its economics and everybody has their own opinion...

[Phantasee]

I couldn't afford a $45 000 SUV before, but I can afford it now. People are getting rid of them, and they are going for cheap at auctions (which is where I buy my cars: cheap, and depending on the auction, reliable enough). It costs more to get a 4-cylinder Honda or Mazda than it does to get an 06 Tahoe or Yukon with all the options at some of these auctions.

[Surlethe]

My (current) perspective is that oil prices and gasoline prices will continue to spike periodically for the next several years. Each spike will cause consumers to make more long-run gas-consumption-reducing decisions during and immediately after the spike, will drive down gasoline demand, and will cause an inflationary supply shock resulting in some demand destruction. But each spike will result in society transitioning to a new long-run consumption path that is less dependent on oil than before, so eventually we'll wean ourselves - after much human suffering and pain caused by the economic contractions, of course, but IMHO the US is too myopic and conservative to get on the ball in time to prevent it.