Recovery? What recovery? [Unemployment = 10%]

[ArmorPierce]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... u6Uw&pos=1

Payrolls in U.S. Decline 11,000; Unemployment at 10% (Update1) Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A
By Timothy R. Homan

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Employers in the U.S. cut the fewest jobs in November since the recession began and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, signaling the recovery is lifting the labor market out of the worst employment slump in the post-World War II era.

Payrolls fell by 11,000 workers, less than the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The jobless rate declined to 10 percent.

The Obama administration, under pressure after almost half of the 7.2 million jobs lost during the recession occurred since the president’s inauguration, is considering additional measures to boost job growth. Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, has pledged to maintain record-low interest rates until joblessness subsides, even as a recovery takes hold.

“We’re getting closer to the point where companies will need to hire back workers,” Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, said before the report. “We’re going to see an improvement in hiring just because firms have cut so much.”

Stock futures rallied and Treasury yields rose after the report. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring this month added 1.3 percent to 1,112.5 at 8:36 a.m. in New York. The yield on the government’s 10-year note increased to 3.47 percent from 3.39 percent late yesterday.

Revisions added 159,000 from payroll figures previously reported for October and September. The October reading was revised to show a 111,000 drop in jobs compared with an initially reported 190,000 decline.

Economists’ Forecasts

Payrolls were forecast to decline 125,000, according to the median estimate of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from decreases of 30,000 to 180,000.

The jobless rate was projected to hold at 10.2 percent. Forecasts ranged from 9.9 percent to 10.4 percent.

The smaller-than-expected decline in payrolls was accompanied by gains in hours worked, wages and staffing at temporary employment agencies, signs companies may soon begin to hire full-time workers.

The number of temporary workers increased 52,000 in November, the biggest since October 2004 and the fourth straight rise. Payrolls at temporary-help agencies often turn up before total employment because companies prefer to see a steady increase in demand before taking on permanent staff.

Work Week Rises

The average work week grew to 33.2 hours in November from 33 hours, the biggest rise since March 2003. Average weekly earnings rose to $622.17.

Some companies are adding workers. Infosys Technologies Ltd., India’s second-largest software exporter by revenue, plans to add 1,000 employees in the U.S. in the next four to five quarters, said Chief Financial Officer V. Balakrishnan.

Government adjustments subtracted 91,000 jobs from the unadjusted November payroll number, about in line with the historical figure. This indicates the seasonal adjustment issue may not have played much of a role in last month’s data.

Today’s report showed factory payrolls fell 41,000 after decreasing 51,000 in the prior month. The median forecast by economists called for a drop of 45,000. The decline included a drop of 6,300 jobs in auto manufacturing and parts industries.

Sales of cars and light trucks increased for a second consecutive month in November after plunging in the wake of the government’s so-called cash-for-clunkers incentive plan. Vehicles sold at a 10.9 million annual pace last month, up from a 10.5 million rate in October.

Builder Payrolls

Payrolls at builders declined 27,000 after falling 56,000. Financial firms decreased payrolls by 10,000 for a second month.

Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, added 58,000 workers after adding 2,000. Retail payrolls decreased by 14,500 after a 44,200 drop.

Angela Renee Elliott, a 40-year-old accountant and bookkeeper from Wyoming, Ohio, said she’s sent between 100 and 150 resumes after losing her job in April. This is the first time she’s been unemployed in her 17-year career.

“I’m feeling pretty good and have seven interviews” already completed or planned, Elliott said in an interview, after posting her resume online on Nov. 21. “I believe I’m going to have a full-time. I’m keeping my fingers crossed.”

Even so, “it’s going to get worse before it gets better,” she said of the national job market and economy.

Government payrolls increased by 7,000 after a 46,000 rise in the prior month.

Underemployment Rate

The so-called underemployment rate -- which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking -- fell to 17.2 percent from 17.5 percent.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month projected the jobless rate will exceed 10 percent through the middle of next year even as the economy expands 2.6 percent in 2010.

The U.S. economy expanded last quarter for the first time in a year, growing at a 2.8 percent pace as government incentives spurred consumers to spend more on homes and automobiles.

Some companies such as Harley-Davidson Inc. are among those continuing to trim staff to wring out additional cost savings and stem losses. The biggest U.S. motorcycle maker yesterday approved a restructuring plan at its largest plant, in York, Pennsylvania, which will result in the loss of about 950 union jobs.

“A restructured York operation will enable the plant to be competitive and sustainable for the future, and the new labor agreement is critical,” Chief Executive Officer Keith Wandell said in a statement. The Milwaukee-based manufacturer is cutting costs after nine straight quarterly losses.

To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: December 4, 2009 08:39 EST

Posted without comment since I'm at work

[Surlethe]

Oh, this recovery.

The United States economy shed a surprisingly few 11,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate fell to 10 percent, from 10.2 percent in October, the Labor Department said Friday.

And the government revised October numbers to show that the economy lost 111,000 jobs instead of 190,000.

The pace of job loss has been declining since a peak in January, and some economists say they expect a turning point to come in the late spring or summer, with employers finally adding workers as a recovery takes hold.

“We’re moving toward stability in the labor market and the end of the tremendous firing that has plagued America,” said Allen L. Sinai, the founder of Decision Economics, a research firm. “But it’s going to be bleak for years. While it is going to be better than what we’ve seen, it’s still going to be terrible.”

A large number of employees are working fewer hours than they would like because many companies are operating below capacity and have resisted adding staff until orders turn up and the incipient recovery seems likely to endure. This broader measure covers not only those seeking work but those whose hours have been cut and those too discouraged to look for work.

“You create this class of people who essentially become permanently unemployed and can’t get back in,” said Nigel Gault, chief domestic economist at IHS Global Insight. “You have people who have lost contact with the labor market, whose skills are not relevant for jobs for the future, who employers regard with skepticism because they have been out of work for so long.”

In recent months, the economy has shown modest signs of stability in manufacturing and construction — each a big source of job loss in the nearly two years since the recession began. But consumer spending remains tepid even as holiday shopping gets under way.

On Thursday, President Obama convened a jobs summit and said he would announce proposals next week to strengthen employment. “We cannot hang back and hope for the best,” the president said, though he added “our resources are limited.”

Economists generally say that the worst of the recession has passed, and most forecast mild growth into next year. But that does not change the economic reality for millions of Americans, who must deal with piles of unpaid bills, worries about unexpected medical expenses and concerns about losing their homes.

Kathy M. Henry, 39, who lives in a subsidized apartment on the South Side of Chicago, was laid off from her job as an administrative assistant at an advertising agency two years ago. Since then, she says, she has applied for more than 500 jobs. She has received a $1,200 monthly unemployment check since August of last year, which she describes as not enough to support herself and two of her children who live with her.

“It’s a constant cycle,” she said. “I’ve applied everywhere, from big corporations to minute corporations, and I don’t even get an e-mail back. I’m worried people see me as old and out of touch and decrepit.”

Earlier this week, Ms. Henry’s son, a high school senior, came home with a packet of class photographs. The $40 cost was beyond her means, she said, so she decided against purchasing a memento of her son’s senior year.

In Canada on Friday, the government reported that the country’s economy added more jobs than expected in November, erasing the losses in October. Statistics Canada reporteda net employment gain of 79,000 in November, topping expectations of a 15,000 gain. The unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent from 8.6 percent in October.

Wait, no, the economy's totally fucked! It can't be increasing! Employment can't be rising! The BLS must be engaged in a vast conspiracy to publish fraudulent numbers! (Or maybe the economy just might be recovering for the time being? Nah. Can't be.)

This is not to make light of the fact that 10% of the workforce is unemployed, or to herald glorious growth years ahead. I'm just rather fed up with the argument that some people (i.e., J) make. It goes something like this: "Measurement of unemployment is imprecise, not all of the different measurements agree precisely, so there must be a conspiracy in the BLS to cook the books." (I suppose the Canadian government is faking their numbers too?) Note also that a decrease in unemployment is an indicator that the economy is growing again; it aligns with other indicators, like increases in industrial production, that point to slight recovery*.

*I hate the terms "recovery" and "ailing", like an economy that isn't growing is sick or something, but it's the terminology we're stuck with.

Edit 2: ArmorPierce, goddammit, you beat me. Would someone mind merging the threads? (I don't want my argument to be deleted.)

[Marcus Aurelius]

*I hate the terms "recovery" and "ailing", like an economy that isn't growing is sick or something, but it's the terminology we're stuck with.

Well, the current economic system is such that a non-growing economy is sick. The whole model of finance depends on infinite economic growth. The model of course is broken, since it's not founded on biophysical reality, but basically on highly wishful thinking and poorly considered assumptions.

[Edi]

Topics merged. I liked Surlethe's title better, so that got kept.

[Surlethe]

Thanks, Edi.

*I hate the terms "recovery" and "ailing", like an economy that isn't growing is sick or something, but it's the terminology we're stuck with.

Well, the current economic system is such that a non-growing economy is sick. The whole model of finance depends on infinite economic growth. The model of course is broken, since it's not founded on biophysical reality, but basically on highly wishful thinking and poorly considered assumptions.

I'd rather say that the current economic sentiment describes a non-growing economy as sick. I also think your description of the financial model as "broken" isn't quite accurate - in the very long run, it's of course broken, but over the long run, as in decades, the assumption of exponential growth works just fine in describing the economy. It's fine to say there are regions where a model doesn't work, but it's just as important to point out where it does work.

Anyway, my point in saying that was rather twofold: first, we really shouldn't be anthropomorphizing the economy - it's a complex sociological system of exchange, not a person. Second, oscillations of growth and contraction around the long-run growth curve are perfectly natural, while terming the economy "sick" when it contracts implies that a recession is something that doesn't (or shouldn't) happen on a regular basis. It's like saying the Earth is "sick" at night, or a person is "breathless" when he's exhaling.

[J]

Wait, no, the economy's totally fucked! It can't be increasing! Employment can't be rising! The BLS must be engaged in a vast conspiracy to publish fraudulent numbers! (Or maybe the economy just might be recovering for the time being? Nah. Can't be.)

This is not to make light of the fact that 10% of the workforce is unemployed, or to herald glorious growth years ahead. I'm just rather fed up with the argument that some people (i.e., J) make. It goes something like this: "Measurement of unemployment is imprecise, not all of the different measurements agree precisely, so there must be a conspiracy in the BLS to cook the books."

824,000 phantom jobs. Nah, nothing fishy going on at the BLS. The revisions for this years birth/death adjustments should be just as interesting.

Now, looking at the report itself, this one actually is a good sign, if it carries through over the next few months. It would mean this particular down phase of the recession is over, and we'll have a recovery of some sort until the next shoe drops. The concern I have with this report is the number of people who dropped out of the labour force entirely and the continued decrease in the size of the labour force. Workers who've dropped out of the labour force aren't counted in the unemployment numbers, but they're just as broke and unable to spend as the ones who are. Those numbers have to turn around before I'm willing to call a recovery.

[Themightytom]

Anyway, my point in saying that was rather twofold: first, we really shouldn't be anthropomorphizing the economy - it's a complex sociological system of exchange, not a person. Second, oscillations of growth and contraction around the long-run growth curve are perfectly natural, while terming the economy "sick" when it contracts implies that a recession is something that doesn't (or shouldn't) happen on a regular basis. It's like saying the Earth is "sick" at night, or a person is "breathless" when he's exhaling.

I agree for the most part surlethe, and I like your analogy about the Earth being considered "sick" while undergoing a natural aspect of its cycle. That being said, there can be variation within an acceptable range, but we are outside that range at this point. The range is determined not by historical measurement or really even by market analysis, but rather public opinion which is what is so irritating. because its a complex sociological phenomenon, it is subject to influence by completely extranneous factors, for example, the economy is percieved bad because anti abortion activists have decided it is a necccesary tactic for undermining Obama's credibility.

Their constant output of negativity affects public perception and the economy is deemed "Sick". investors don't invest, businesses become conservative, even job hunters become more easily overwhelmed by the perception of increased challenges and don't even look as hard.

I have observed and begun documenting a bizarre exchange in my program, in which chronically unemployed individuals (individuals out of work for a year or more, or with more than three non simultaneous jobs in the last two years) are acheiving a fairly unprecedented rate of employment (3 times my normal amount for five months now) while individuals experiencing first time poverty are showing LESS ability to find work. I score seekers every week on how many places they applied to, how many they made personal visits to and how many they called back, and the chronically unemployed clients are trying HARDER than then those who are recently out of the work palce.

The "Economic climate" seems to have removed the stigma of unemployment from those with gaps in work history, yet proves discouraging for those who were recently let go. per your observation that this is a cyclical event it would be interesting to see how many of my chroncially unemployed were let go during the recession in the 90's and were this to happen again in a few years, how many of my current newly unemployed ahve become chronically unemployed but respond better in a recession.

[ArmorPierce]

There is no denying this is good news. It exceeds the best of expectations. I'm not sure why it is so dramatically different from the estimated job loss from preliminary informatin which was at 190,000, a 180,000 margin of error? I tried to find the news story on bloomberg that I saw this on but they all have been updated several times and I can't find the original. Either way what use are these estimates or judgements by prelimary information if it's off aby about a thousand percent?

Anyway, as I said, good news. I want to see if this is a lot of seasonal hirings and will carry on to the first months of the next year though.

[J]

Anyway, as I said, good news. I want to see if this is a lot of seasonal hirings and will carry on to the first months of the next year though.

The Census Bureau is hiring over a million temporary workers in the early months of next year, I'd be quite surprised if this doesn't carry over for a while. While the overall number does matter, the key will be the jobs created or lost exclusive of the government's census hirings. This will tell us if there really is organic growth in the economy.

[Ma Deuce]

Oh, this recovery

You mean THIS recovery?

US services sector survey drags world stocks down

By PAN PYLAS (AP) – 1 day ago

LONDON — European and U.S. stock markets pared gains Thursday after a downbeat U.S. services sector survey stoked concerns about the recovery in the world's largest economy just a day before a key jobs report.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares closed down 14.39 points, or 0.3 percent, at 5,313 while Germany's DAX fell 11.33 points, or 0.2 percent, to 5,770.35. The CAC-40 in France was up 3.19 points, or 0.1 percent, at 3,799.11.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 5.67 points, or 0.1 percent, at 10.458.35 around midday New York time while the broader Standard & Poor's 500 rose 1.35 point, or 0.1 percent, to 1,110.59.

Stocks had been trading higher throughout the day after big gains in Asia — led by Japan's Nikkei — as investors continued to warm to Wednesday's news that Bank of America Corp. will repay $45 billion of government bailout money. A fifth straight weekly decline in U.S. jobless claims added to the positive tone.

However, that optimism waned after a closely watched survey indicated that the services sector in the U.S. was falling back into recession. The Institute for Supply Management said its service industry index fell to 48.7 in November from 50.6 in October. The fall was unexpected — analysts were expecting a rise to 51.5 — and signaled renewed contraction in the sector as any reading below 50 does.

The data comes as investors turn their attention to Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November — data that often sets the tone in the markets for a week or two.

If investors conclude the U.S. economy is losing steam, that could pave the way for a bout of profit-taking following an eight-month bull run.

The consensus is that November U.S. non-farm payrolls fell by around 120,000, but that the unemployment rate held steady at a 26-year high of 10.2 percent.

"A slightly worse number than this could well provide the excuse to bank some of this week's profits ahead of the weekend," said Philip Gillett, sales trader at IG Index.

The news that the European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a historic low of 1 percent and will start withdrawing some of its extraordinary liquidity support had little market impact.

Sentiment had mainly been buoyed by the news that Bank of America intends to repay money it received during the height of the credit crisis last year and after its purchase of Merrill Lynch earlier this year to escape the heightened government supervision that goes along with it.

So far this week, investor jitters related to Dubai's debt problems have calmed amid hopes that Dubai World, the government investment company, will have around $26 billion worth of its debts restructured. Last week, the company — with a total of $60 billion worth of debt — sent shockwaves around global financial markets when it said it was looking to postpone forthcoming debt payments until May.

The hope in the markets is that Dubai's problems will not affect the global financial system.

Earlier in Asia, Japanese stocks were boosted by a fall in the value of the yen which, if sustained, could help exporters — Japan is particularly dependent on exporting its cars and electronics for its economic growth. The Nikkei 225 stock average jumped 368.73 points, or 3.8 percent, to 9,977.67.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.2 percent to 22,553.87 and South Korea's index rose 1.5 percent to 1,615.00. Australia's benchmark rose 0.3 percent but Shanghai lost 0.2 percent.

Oil prices fell, with benchmark crude for January delivery down 53 cents at $76.07, while gold was steady at $1,212.60 an ounce after earlier hitting a new record high of $1,227.5.

The dollar was up 0.9 percent on the day at 88.16 yen while the euro was 0.4 percent higher at $1.5095, having earlier been within touching distance of its 16-month high of $1.5144.

AP Business Writer Jeremiah Marquez in Hong Kong contributed to this report.

Since this indicator accounts for about 90% of your economy, it's a significant indicator indeed. Granted, it's only a single month of data, which means it's about as meaningless as a single month of slightly better job data since we don't yet know yet if either represents a bigger trend.

[J]

Also, this.

Business Insider link

TrimTabs: The Real Job Loss Number Was 255,000
Joe Weisenthal|Dec. 4, 2009, 2:56 PM |

Just about every time the monthly jobs numbers comes out, economic research firm TrimTabs comes out and slams the government's methodology, usually honing in on the Birth/Death model of new businesses entering the market.

This week is no exception.

Frankly, we're not sure what to make of their arguments. We've been hearing about this Birth-Death issue for a long time, but unless you believe they're changing their methodology from month to month, then that issue only goes so far.

We welcome your thoughts.

------------

TrimTabs’ Estimates 255,000 Jobs Lost in November, While BLS Reports a Decline of Only 11,000

BLS Revises September and October Results Down a Whopping 45%

Something’s Not Right in Kansas!

TrimTabs employment analysis, which uses real-time daily income tax deposits from all U.S. taxpayers to compute employment growth, estimated that the U.S. economy shed 255,000 jobs in November. This past month’s results were an improvement of only 10.2% from the 284,000 jobs lost in October.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy lost an astonishingly better than expected 11,000 jobs in November. In addition, the BLS revised their September and October results down a whopping 203,000 jobs, resulting in a 45% improvement over their preliminary results.

Something is not right in Kansas! Either the BLS results are wrong, our results are in error, or the truth lies somewhere in the middle

We believe the BLS is grossly underestimating current job losses due to their flawed survey methodology. Those flaws include rigid seasonal adjustments, a mysterious birth/death adjustment, and the fact that only 40% to 60% of the BLS survey is complete by the time of the first release and subject to revision.

Seasonal adjustments are particularly problematic around the holiday season due to the large number of temporary holiday-related jobs added to payrolls in October and November which then disappear in January. In the past two months, the BLS seasonal adjustments subtracted 2.4 million jobs from the results. In January, when the seasonal adjustments are the largest of the year, the BLS will add anywhere from 2.0 to 2.3 million jobs. In our opinion, trying to glean monthly job losses numbering in the tens of thousands or even in the hundreds of thousands are lost in the enormous size of the seasonal adjustments.

In November, the BLS revised their September and October job losses down a surprising 44.5%, or 203,000 jobs. In the twelve months ending in October, the BLS revised their job loss estimates up or down by a staggering 679,000 jobs, or 13.0%. Until this past month, these revisions brought the BLS’ revised estimates to within a couple percent of TrimTabs’ original estimates.

The large divergence between the two results begs the question of what is causing the difference. While we don’t have an answer today, we will be poring over the data in an attempt to answer that question.

A comparison of TrimTabs’ employment results versus the BLS’ results from January 2008 through November 2009 is summarized below.



Source: TrimTabs Investment Research – http://www.trimtabs.com and Bureau of Labor Statistics – http://www.bls.com

Several other employment related data statistics support the conclusion that the labor market is not as robust as the BLS is reporting:

· Automatic Data Processing reported on Wednesday that 169,000 jobs were lost in November.

· The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Survey reported that the majority of companies surveyed were still shedding employees.

· The ISM Manufacturing Survey reported weaker employment conditions in November.

· Weekly unemployment claims were 457,000 in the week ended November 27, 2009. While last week’s results were below the important psychological level 500,000, the weekly claims are still uncomfortably high and point to a contracting labor market.

· The TrimTabs Online Jobs Index reported lower online job availability in the past three weeks.

· The Monster Employment Index declined in November.

We will have the opportunity to truth our employment model estimates at the end of January 2010 when the BLS releases its annual benchmark revisions. The BLS revisions are based on actual payroll data for March 2009. The BLS revision is then divided by twelve to correct prior month’s data back to April 2008. We also use the March 2009 revisions to adjust our model inputs and make any necessary corrections.

For a complete analysis of the current employment situation and economic conditions, refer to TrimTabs Weekly Macro Analysis published this coming Tuesday, December 8, 2009.

[Big Orange]

Obama seeks to apply a band aid to the problem and there are insights into the mostly obscure longterm unemployed:

Obama seeks new ideas on US jobs

With the US unemployment rate above 10% for the first time in 27 years, a sense of urgency is growing.

On Thursday in Washington, President Barack Obama held a jobs summit, attended by 130 business leaders, union leaders and economists.

To the assembled experts, President Obama said that the US government must act quickly in the fight against unemployment, but cautioned that he had only limited funds to create jobs.

"We cannot hang back and hope for the best," he warned.

Indeed, any new spending plans aimed at reducing joblessness will run into opposition from Republicans in Congress.

They are already irritated by the billions of dollars spent on emergency bail-outs for banks and carmakers, begun under one of their own, President George W Bush.

Running up budget deficits to be paid for by future generations has a bad name in Washington. So does "big government".

Recession fears

But an economist on the conservative side (he advised Republican presidential candidate, John McCain in 2008), Mark Zandi of Economy.com, says deficits are a big concern, but not something we can afford to worry about right now.

"That's a problem not for 2009, not for 2010. That's a problem for 2011, 2012 and beyond," he says.

"We have to make sure that we don't go back into a recession, because if we go back into recession, the cost to taxpayers will be even greater.

"The deficits will be measurably larger, so I think it's important to spend more money now."

Mr Zandi says some government spending needs to be focused on state and local governments, whose tax revenues have fallen, so that they do not have to lay off workers.

Another top priority is unemployment benefits, which normally run out after six months in the US, though they have been extended in states with the highest unemployment rates.

Mr Zandi sees continuing benefits to unemployed workers as key to maintaining demand, because people who do not have money do not buy things.

That can lead to a downward spiral: if consumers do not consume, businesses cut back on workers, who then have no money to spend either.

Long-term solutions

Another area where Mr Zandi feels the government can make a unique contribution is providing credit to small and medium-sized businesses.

After last year's credit crisis, banks are still reluctant to lend. However, traditionally they have provided capital to smaller companies for start-up and expansion, and these smaller companies typically create the majority of new jobs in America.

Subsidising labour, in the form of tax cuts or subsidies for newly hired workers, could help get the ball rolling, by providing businesses with the confidence and certainty they need to move forward and add staff.

These are all short-term, cheque-book solutions.

America also needs long-term policies to help educate and retrain workers in the hardest-hit industries, such as car manufacturing and construction, two sectors claiming half of all jobs losses during this recession.

Historically, the expense of retraining has been shouldered by workers themselves, but the scale of permanent job losses in some industries warrants a government response.

Mr Zandi insists: "It's clear that even when the economy gets back on its feet, we're going to have very high unemployment in many parts of the country for a long time to come.

"One reason is that the people out of work don't have the skills and education necessary to be employed in the jobs of the future."

States and localities jealously guard their responsibility for education, but they rarely turn down federal money.

As a start, the federal government could fund expanded programmes and study at two-year community colleges which offer technical degrees in growing fields such as healthcare: radiology, nursing and more.

'Shadow unemployment'

Policy makers targeting job creation will need to broaden their view of how many people need help.

While the number of unemployed workers according to official counts stands at 15.7 million, another 9.3 million Americans are under-employed, working part-time because they cannot find full-time work, or have had their hours cut back.

An additional 2.4 million people who are out of work are not even counted as unemployed if they did not look for work during the four weeks preceding the latest household survey.

Statisticians consider them "marginally attached" to the workforce.

One in three of the marginally attached qualifies as a "discouraged worker," who has given up looking for work, because he does not believe there is a job available for him.

So what many are now calling the "shadow unemployment rate" tops 18 million, 27 million including the involuntary part-time workers.

Circling back to the political realities behind the jobs summit, Congressional mid-term elections are less than a year away.

If dissatisfied voters turn out some of the fractious Democrats who currently lend the president a small and unreliable majority, he could end up with even less support for government stimulus programmes.

BBC

[dragon]

Being one of the 10% I can attest to the non recovery, especially since I live off my VA here in Germany and the exchange rate sucks right now. Good thing my wife has a decent career at the university here.

[KrauserKrauser]

A couple things. Working in a company that hires a lot of Holiday staff and being able to monitor that from year to year, the people I have talked with are more desperate and more looking for work then I have ever seen. We actually stopped accepting applications, something I've never seen before, because we received so many applications.

Also Obama's "Jobs Summit" was such BS. You are going to include multiple union representatives but not the fucking chamber of commerce? Sounds like you really know how to create jobs, Mr. President make sure to listen to thbose unions they sure are great at making jobs until they have b led their companies dry.

[J]

Oh, and this too.

Business Insider link

CHART OF THE DAY: The Services Sector Turns Sharply Lower
Vincent Fernando and Kamelia Angelova|Dec. 3, 2009, 1:45 PM


The U.S. services sector is once again contracting according to the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index.

The latest November index value came in at 48.7, surprising consensus economists who expected it to be 51.5. Any value below 50 indicates a contraction of activity, according to the ISM.

This makes it very clear that the services sector improvement we've seen all year has suddenly reversed, after only briefly breaking above the key 50-level. See detailed tables about the latest November report here.

The BLS claims that 58k jobs have been added in the service industries while the ISM survey places the employment index for the sector at 41.8 which is fairly contrationary (below 50 is job loss, above 50 job gains). We have the ADP, ISM, TrimTabs, and sales tax receipt numbers all pointing towards a similar decline in November compared to previous months while the BLS alone comes up with a much improved figure. While it's a stretch to call it a conspiracy I do have to question the accuracy of the BLS's models. TrimTabs uses actual income tax numbers to calculate its employment figures while the BLS uses surveys which are run through "black box" models and then given seasonal adjustments. I'd go with the TrimTabs numbers since they're based on a much larger set of more solid data.