Ukraine doubleplusunbankrupt

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Irbis
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Ukraine doubleplusunbankrupt

Post by Irbis »

Debts are minusundebts if we don't like you:
Ukraine vote gives government power to suspend foreign debt payments

Parliament hands ministers powers to defend war-torn nation against ‘unscrupulous’ creditors

Ukraine’s parliament on Tuesday handed ministers the power to suspend foreign debt payments to defend against “unscrupulous” creditors.

The vote was the latest episode in an escalating row over a $25bn (£16bn) rescue package with the International Monetary Fund and European Union.

“In case of attacks on Ukraine by unscrupulous creditors, this moratorium will protect state assets and the state sector,” the prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said.

Finance minister Natalie Jaresko said the overwhelming vote in the Rada, allowing the government to suspend payments to Ukraine’s international sovereign debt-holders, was “an important protection for citizens who are already shouldering a heavy burden due to the war in the east”.

The new law was passed only days before EU finance ministers are due to meet in the Latvian capital Riga to discuss how to stabilise Ukraine’s finances in the wake of the uprising centred on Donetsk and a dispute with Russia, which Ukraine claims supports rebel fighters.

Jaresko has argued for months that the economic situation inside Ukraine has worsened in recent months following the collapse in oil prices and imposition of sanctions on Russia, which remains its largest trading partner.

German chancellor Angela Merkel is keen to resolve the debt crisis to shore up her own economy, which was heavily connected to Russia and Ukraine.

The IMF has led talks over how to bridge a $15bn funding gap that Jaresko says Ukraine is unable to bridge without further funds.

It has pledged about $17.5bn with a top-up from the EU and other lenders, including the World Bank, taking the total to $25bn.

Ukraine must also finance about $23bn (£15bn) of private sector debt, , almost all of which is owed to US and UK financial institutions, apart from $3bn which is part of a Russian bond and another $1bn held by Russian banks.

Jaresko wants the debt pile to be cut, and the maturity on loans to be extended to reduce funding costs. She said private sector creditors should also reduce the interest rate on Ukrainian sovereign bonds.

She said: “Our government expects our international commercial creditors to negotiate respecting the principles of transparency, responsiveness and good faith.

“Today’s vote demonstrates the seriousness of our difficult financial position and the need to rapidly conclude a debt operation … I remain confident that such a solution can be found.

“Given our economic challenges and situation, our current debt levels are unsustainable and any deal with our international commercial creditors must include maturity extensions, coupon reductions and principal reductions. There is no alternative.”

EU negotiators are reluctant to approve a radical overhaul of Ukraine’s debts when the total outstanding only amounts to 71% of GDP. Germany and the UK currently manage debt piles of about 80% of GDP.

However, civil war in the east of the country, which is adding more than $5m a day to the defence bill alone, has sent the currency tumbling by more than 70% and sparked an inflation rate of more than 60%.

Jaresko said the country was also coping with steeply rising gas prices and demands from private sector debt-holders for full repayment of loans bought speculatively over the past two years.

IHS Global Insight analyst Jan Randolph said the Ukrainians were attempting to fast-forward the usual debt negotiations with demands for a writedown on its debts, but the usual rules might not apply to a country facing a war in its eastern half.

“The public debt has gone up to 71%, which is not a level you would consider a crisis when the Germans and the UK have higher public debts. But Ukraine is not in a usual situation,” he said.

“A major problem is that Russia has gone into recession and when that happened, Ukrainian nationals were expelled, gas prices were increased, the costs of conflict escalated and the situation worsened.”

The debt of state-owned Ukreximbank, Oschadbank and Ukraine railways, which is also being restructured, would not be subject to the moratorium, the official parliament’s statement said ahead of the vote.
Hmm, I wonder, is the 23 billion owed to UK/USA influencing decisions of these countries in any way? This seems to be awfully huge sum compared to normally frugal lending from these countries to developing countries and usual times when they start to ask to have their money back.

Also, $5m a day? What it's spent on? Their infamous bounty head-hunting program? Certainly not on arms, they have massive stockpile of these from Soviet arsenals, unless they decided to go on shopping spree in USA and I missed that.

But never mind, it gets better. EU, despite Ukraine having debt level far below UK or Germany, just decided to pump 2 bln of free Euro there during summit mentioned above:
EU summit pledges €1.8bn to Ukraine but Russia remains elephant in room

European leaders in Riga accused of expecting Eastern Partnership countries to bring in reforms for little in return while Kremlin offers ‘cash with fewer strings’


European leaders pledged Ukraine €1.8bn (£1.3bn) and the vague prospect of visa-free travel at an EU summit in Riga where the Kremlin’s newly assertive policy in eastern Europe was the elephant in the room.

While David Cameron was in the Latvian capital to discuss Britain’s demands ahead of a referendum on EU membership, the main topic of the broader summit was the Eastern Partnership, a programme set up in 2009 to bring six post-Soviet countries into Europe’s orbit and prise them away from Russia.

A vaguely worded statement affirmed the “high importance” of the partnership, but in reality the Riga summit showed just how different the six countries are. Eventual EU membership has never been an overt part of the partnership, and in the intervening years since it was launched, Azerbaijan has cooled on EU integration while Belarus and Armenia have signed up to Vladimir Putin’s rival Eurasian union project.

The Latvian foreign minister, Edgars Rinkevics, said: “This summit takes place in a completely different environment to previous ones.”

There had been wrangling over the final text of the summit statement, with Belarus and Armenia not willing to sign up to a statement condemning the “annexation” of Crimea by Russia, and some European nations uneasy about liberalised visa regimes for Georgia and Ukraine.

Three of the six nations – Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine – are still signed up to the European integration project. Most notable is the new pro-western Ukrainian administration of President Petro Poroshenko, who came to power after his predecessor Viktor Yanukovych was ousted following protests sparked by his refusal to sign an EU free trade agreement.

“During these 18 months, the Ukrainian people … made a revolution of dignity, and paid a very high price for their European choice,” said Poroshenko after the talks.

EU and Ukrainian officials signed the €1.8bn loan agreement to help with the ailing Ukrainian economy, which requires Ukraine to make a number of structural and anti-corruption reforms. But there were only the most carefully couched promises on visa liberalisation for Ukraine and Georgia, a key carrot for the two countries, and no mention at all of any future membership prospects.

“Georgia and Ukraine might enjoy a visa-free regime next year,” said the Latvian prime minister, Laimdota Straujuma, but it would depend on them “actively working to meet all the commitments to receive a positive opinion”.

One EU official said the problem was that the alliance demands “the expectation of serious reforms, but little concrete in response”, while Russia offers “cash with no strings attached when it comes to domestic policy, only foreign policy”.

Giga Bokeria, an official from Georgia’s opposition United National Movement, said: “I think the decision not to allow a roadmap for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova to become EU members at some point, even far in the future, is a fundamental geopolitical mistake. This would stimulate internal reforms and make it less easy for Russia to make counter-offers.”
I like the honesty from Georgians in the end. Why it should be less easy for Russia to make deals with these six countries unless we're talking about full geopolitical annexation of them? Surely, if EU wanted to promote such unimportant things like human rights, democracy and western values, instead of building wet dream of idiot Russophobic right wingers, Iron Courtain 2.0, you'd talk about cooperation of both sides. Sadly, divisions won't work, as Belarus and Armenia refusal shown, Russia is far too important partner for these.

Man, Greeks really should beg Putin for invasion. The above law would never fly in Athens.
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Re: Ukraine doubleplusunbankrupt

Post by Simon_Jester »

Five million dollars a day comes out to about eighteen billion dollars a year, which is pretty cheap for a modern war. That money is likely being spent on:

1) Paying soldiers. Just going from Wikipedia as a rough guide, the Ukrainians have deployed fifty thousand men to fight in the Donbass, and even if they're not getting paid as much as Ukrainian soldiers would, that could come to something like a million dollars a day in salaries, or more.

You might say that's not being counted under the general budget, I am not so sure. At that point it would depend on accounting procedures of the Ukrainian army which I would really really like to not get into (yuck!).

2) Supplying the army with consumables NOT normally stockpiled in massive quantities. Like food, and gasoline. Those fifty thousand men probably have several thousand vehicles, including for example supply trucks that are driven long distances on a daily basis. The fuel bills add up.

3) Supplying the army with any munitions that, yes, do NOT come from stockpiles (i.e. American or European munitions), or anything that is being used on such a large scale that there are probably steady streams of them being manufactured at an accelerated rate regardless of the size of the stockpile (such as rifle ammunition).
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Re: Ukraine doubleplusunbankrupt

Post by K. A. Pital »

US and European munitions are incompatible with 99% of their hardware. Ergo, useless for the Ukrainian war effort.
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Re: Ukraine doubleplusunbankrupt

Post by Simon_Jester »

What I mean is that the Ukrainians DO seem to be using certain specific things that are provided by the US or Europe. Not so much bombs or rockets or bullets, as special radar sets to detect mortar fire, or things like that. For applications like that compatibility matters less, because the device you're using is a self-contained unit that doesn't interface with anything else.

So they might be spending money on that.
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Re: Ukraine doubleplusunbankrupt

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Poroshenko: Law on foreign currency loans jeopardizes banking system

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says that the law on restructuring foreign currency loans jeopardizes the sole existence of Ukraine’s banking system and economic stability

“I saw populist politicians who jeopardized the existence of the country’s financial banking system and economic stability, trying to win some public affection. I also saw giving away promises that cannot be kept,” said Poroshenko.

The president added that he was proud of the “absolutely responsible popular attitude” toward the parliament’s move which appeared to be a cold shower for out-of-date politicians, unlike Greece where the people were fooled with populist slogans and now face severe unemployment and blocked banking system which, in turn, threatens state security.

UNIAN earlier reported that the parliament passed in a third reading the bill on restructuring of foreign currency loans which obliged all banks to restructure the obligations under the credit agreement at the official NBU rate on the date of the loan agreement at the written request of the citizens of Ukraine who had outstanding obligations under the loan agreements in foreign currency.

Ukraine’s Finance Ministry and the National Bank both strongly opposed the draft law calling it dangerous for the banking system.

Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko called the law full of populism while Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius mentioned that the bill is not consistent with Ukraine’s obligations before the International Monetary Fund, its key creditor.
Ukrainian Parliament just voted to not only threaten debtors of the country with mandatory haircuts if they are found to be acting against economic interests of the country (read - want their money back) but also voted to transfer loans from banks in foreign currencies to grywna using old exchange rate. The problem? When these were handed out, it was 5 grywna to dollar. Now, it's 23, meaning 80% cut. Banking losses are being estimated from 7 to 10 billion dollars if everyone goes along with it, which, given the scale of profit, everyone will. Bankrupting most if not all of banking sector.

What is funny, though, is that parliament now calls for withdrawing the law, claiming most members were either drunk or not present at all, meaning someone had to vote several dozen times for their colleagues. Oh, and the law was passed because sober people present either didn't read it or voted for as it were banks held by rival oligarchs. I wonder if they realize how such excuses make them look like? :lol:
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Re: Ukraine doubleplusunbankrupt

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

I thought it was well known that some MPs do "stretch over" and press the "next guy's" vote button?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/20 ... 79842.html
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Re: Ukraine doubleplusunbankrupt

Post by Irbis »

Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:I thought it was well known that some MPs do "stretch over" and press the "next guy's" vote button?
Ah, but that was eeevil Yanukovich. Now it's lily white opposition that campaigned on curbing that practice :lol:
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Re: Ukraine doubleplusunbankrupt

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

Irbis wrote:
Fingolfin_Noldor wrote:I thought it was well known that some MPs do "stretch over" and press the "next guy's" vote button?
Ah, but that was eeevil Yanukovich. Now it's lily white opposition that campaigned on curbing that practice :lol:
Given how these people behaved post Maidan, I have my doubts the practice has ended.
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