Super Volcano about to blow?

BlkbrryTheGreat · Post by **BlkbrryTheGreat** » 2003-09-09 11:31pm

Yellowstone Super
Volcano Update
By Dr. Bruce Cornet
Geologist, Paleobotanist, and Palynologist
9-8-3

Mt. Sheriden has been rumbling (15+ micro-quakes) between 1:00 pm and now (9/7/03). There were three small earthquakes at Yellowstone lake between 10:00 am and 1:00 pm MT (9/7/03), which were felt at Norris Junction. There were some small quakes between Midnight and 6:00 am (9/7/03) at Norris Junction. There was a whole string of micro-quakes (25 or more) at Madison River between 6:00 am and now, which are continuing. There have been sporadic micro-quakes (32+) all day at Mammoth Hot Springs. Micro-quakes started around Noon and have continued to the present at Mirror Lake Plateau. All in all, activity is picking up from a lull for about two weeks, before which a series of small and large quakes (including a 4.4) occurred. That quake prompted the web report.

Steam pressure is apparently building again, and hydrothermal fluids and steam are working their way up through fractures and vents. I do not expect anything unusual or extreme to happen in the immediate future, but if the trend continues, and the number of earthquakes gradually increase with time, more warnings from geologists will ensue.

What you should be alert to is any report that mentions increasing geyser activity, with new fumaroles and steam vents appearing near or on top of the rising dome. The dome has risen about three feet in the past few years, and magma has risen to within 3.7 km of the surface based on quake data. Earthquake loci measured to within 0.5 km under Mt. St. Helens, and people still didn't think it would erupt.

But everything has to be scaled up for Yellowstone, meaning that 3.7 km is not a safe depth. Ground temperatures in the northwestern part of the park are apparently on the rise (up to 200 dg F in some places), killing the vegetation. Large areas of the park are now closed, including areas with geysers, because their water temperature is now scalding and dangerous for visitors.

If more steam vents appear, that means a continuous pathway for pressure release has been established to the magma chamber. If that happens, the pressure in the magma chamber will continue to drop until it reaches a critical stage when the superheated water within the magma explodes. When that happens the super-volcano will blow violently, blowing out a chunk of its cap-rock and sending millions of cubic feet of ash into the atmosphere in a Pompeii-like explosion, but 100,000 times worse.

When you hear those reports, you will have about two days to "get out of Dodge" before the eruption. Unfortunately, as the steam venting subsides, there will be a false sense of security. People will think it was just another cyclical event, and the danger is over. But that will be the farthest from the truth. It will be the quiet before the storm. A major earthquake will suddenly rock their towns for hundreds of kilometers around Yellowstone, and soon thereafter 1,000+ degree pyroclastic flows will descend on them at hundreds of miles per hour, extending out to 600+ km.

That 600 km radius around the caldera will experience total devastation. The next 600 km out may receive as much as 5-10 feet of ash, depending on wind direction. The thickness of ash will decrease away from the super-volcano, but will reach the crop belt in the Midwest (Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, etc.), destroying most of the fertile croplands of the United States. California will be hit hard by falling ash, with its central wine valley severely damaged (the French will love it). Agriculture will have to shift east of the Mississippi for years. The Garden State will once again live up to its name.

In northern Idaho you will have to contend with several feet of ash and isolation. Roads will be closed. Power will be out. Phones will be out. Communication will depend on Ham radios and local stations that have generators. Rescue will take weeks or months. Some areas will never see rescue teams. The survivalists will be best prepared to make it through the difficult months following the eruption. Make new friends. Have plenty of dust masks on hand, because you cannot breath any airborne ash if you want to avoid lung disease. It's what caused mass kills of plains animals 12 million years ago, resulting in extensive bone beds beneath the ash. Drinkable water will sell at the price of gold.

To recap, I don't expect anything to happen in the near future. But with such an unpredictable event, being prepared is your best ticket to survival."

Dr. Bruce Cornet

Xenophobe3691 · Post by **Xenophobe3691** » 2003-09-09 11:38pm

Space Colonization sounds more and more inviting nowadays, if I ever become a multibillionaire and finance colonies in Orbit and on the moon, I'm gonna laugh when I see that thing explode...

Alyeska · Post by **Alyeska** » 2003-09-09 11:41pm

Vorlon1701 wrote:Space Colonization sounds more and more inviting nowadays, if I ever become a multibillionaire and finance colonies in Orbit and on the moon, I'm gonna laugh when I see that thing explode...

Right now space is slightly more dangerous. What we need is a completely shielded 900km space station to live in. Not even hyper novas a couple LY away could harm us then...

BlkbrryTheGreat · Post by **BlkbrryTheGreat** » 2003-09-09 11:56pm

I find that the really funny thing is that drilling to releave the pressure is actually the worst thing we could do at this point; doing so would cause the super heated water trapped under Yellowstone to turn to steam... causing the very thing that such an action would try to prevent.
On a side note, I'm sure almost everyone here is aware of space colonization..... pointing out solutions that may be viable several hundred years from now isn't exactly helpful in dealing with the current problem.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2003-09-10 12:08am

I'm a little fuzzy on the mechanism by which a volume of superheated water actually becomes more dangerous when mass/energy is removed from it.

Xenophobe3691 · Post by **Xenophobe3691** » 2003-09-10 12:19am

Darth Wong wrote:I'm a little fuzzy on the mechanism by which a volume of superheated water actually becomes more dangerous when mass/energy is removed from it.

Because the loss in pressure allows it to turn from water to steam, at which point it expands at a fairly faster rate than just water?

That's just me guessing...

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2003-09-10 12:26am

Sounds like bullshit scare tactics to me, to be perfectly honest. By all means, I'm sure this baby will make St. Helens pale by comparison, but 600km is long damn way. As for wiping out all agriculture east of the Mississippi, I'll believe that when I see it.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2003-09-10 12:28am

Interesting factoid: at 374.136 degrees C and 22.088 MPa pressure, the latent heat of evapouration of water is zero joules. At that temperature, water and steam have the same volume, the same energy, the same enthalpy, and the same entropy.

I wonder what temperature this superheated water is supposed to be.

Xenophobe3691 · Post by **Xenophobe3691** » 2003-09-10 12:34am

Darth Wong wrote:Interesting factoid: at 374.136 degrees C and 22.088 MPa pressure, the latent heat of evapouration of water is zero joules. At that temperature, water and steam have the same volume, the same energy, the same enthalpy, and the same entropy.

I wonder what temperature this superheated water is supposed to be.

Yep, this is why I'm just starting college...

Alferd Packer · Post by **Alferd Packer** » 2003-09-10 12:39am

An interesting read, nonetheless.

And I wanted to move west after college!

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2003-09-10 01:19am

Go ahead. Don't let fearmongering stop you.

Sriad · Post by **Sriad** » 2003-09-10 02:43am

Darth Wong wrote:Interesting factoid: at 374.136 degrees C and 22.088 MPa pressure, the latent heat of evapouration of water is zero joules. At that temperature, water and steam have the same volume, the same energy, the same enthalpy, and the same entropy.

I wonder what temperature this superheated water is supposed to be.

Considering the superheated/pressurized water is in the magma, I'd say pretty dang hot.

Don't head to far East though, there's that pesky little island off the coast of Africa that's going to lose a couple teratons of rock into the Atlantic ocean and cause a kilometer high tidal wave along the United State's East coast sometime in the next few centuries. Or so I've heard.

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2003-09-10 02:55am

I believe you've heard wrong. Assuming 1TT granite, that would be 2500 cubic kilometers of rock.

Thats a fuckload of rock.

And I doubt even that much rock falling into the ocean would create a 1km tidal wave several thousand km away.

Shinova · Post by **Shinova** » 2003-09-10 02:59am

If the eruption happens anytime soon, me and my fellow Californians will make sure to continually update you easterners on what ash rain looks like. Stay tuned!

Warspite · Post by **Warspite** » 2003-09-10 06:19am

There's been a recent thread on this in the SLAM forum.

Howedar wrote:I believe you've heard wrong. Assuming 1TT granite, that would be 2500 cubic kilometers of rock.

Thats a fuckload of rock.

And I doubt even that much rock falling into the ocean would create a 1km tidal wave several thousand km away.

The tidal wave will reach 1km (or thereabouts, give of take a few hundred meters) near the US continental shelf, not on the origin point. And for that matter, what about the eastern part of one of the Hawaiian islands??

The Third Man · Post by **The Third Man** » 2003-09-10 06:38am

For me, this article loses all credibility due to the preposterous mixing of Imperial/metric measurements:

600 km out may receive as much as 5-10 feet of ash

The dome has risen about three feet in the past few years, and magma has risen to within 3.7 km

descend on them at hundreds of miles per hour, extending out to 600+ km

Post by **Gandalf** » 2003-09-10 06:39am

1km tidal wave.

Sweet merciful crap!

Sriad · Post by **Sriad** » 2003-09-10 06:40am

Howedar wrote:I believe you've heard wrong. Assuming 1TT granite, that would be 2500 cubic kilometers of rock.

Thats a fuckload of rock.

Bah, what's a couple orders of magnitude between friends?

But the second part of the post is correct.

Faram · Post by **Faram** » 2003-09-10 06:52am

Sriad wrote:Don't head to far East though, there's that pesky little island off the coast of Africa that's going to lose a couple teratons of rock into the Atlantic ocean and cause a kilometer high tidal wave along the United State's East coast sometime in the next few centuries. Or so I've heard.

Ahh Gran Canaria.

I have acctually walked at one of those cracks, when the guide told us about the mayhem it might cause I jumped up and down. Tried to start the mayhem...

I was 10 at the time so my igorance about the forces required is somewhat understandeble(sp).

Anyways great terror target for Uzama, just bring a shitload of explosives and give nature a hand.

Patrick Degan · Post by **Patrick Degan** » 2003-09-10 07:51am

Well, a cursory Google search:

http://www.google.com/search?q=Dr.+Bruc ... art=0&sa=N

...makes me think that perhaps Dr. Cornet should be taken with a rather big box of salt.

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2003-09-10 12:43pm

What, you don't think UFO sightings help one's credibility?

Nathan F · Post by **Nathan F** » 2003-09-10 01:05pm

Meh, nice and safe here in East Tennessee.

*realizes he is sitting on a fault line*

Uhm...eh, well, my house in middle Tennessee is still safe.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-09-10 02:37pm

This article might have actual credibility if it analyzed the areas earthquake history over a timeframe greater then 2 weeks

Alyeska · Post by **Alyeska** » 2003-09-10 03:48pm

Howedar wrote:Sounds like bullshit scare tactics to me, to be perfectly honest. By all means, I'm sure this baby will make St. Helens pale by comparison, but 600km is long damn way. As for wiping out all agriculture east of the Mississippi, I'll believe that when I see it.

The last time one of these babies blew it depopulated the world by more then 90%.

Howedar · Post by **Howedar** » 2003-09-10 05:05pm

Source please.