Prediction: what will Iraq look like two years from now?

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2003-11-16 05:53pm

Well? Anyone care to take a shot at guessing what Iraq will look like two years from now?

I personally predict that the Baathists will be back in power under a quasi-democratically elected government and the country will be slowly reverting to its former condition, much as Afghanistan is doing. The biggest difference will be that the Americans will have a semi-permanent military presence in the country.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2003-11-16 05:54pm

One giant smoking crater,; the wail of American venture capitalists crying can be heard for miles.

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2003-11-16 05:54pm

I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a new nasty political party coming into power. But I can't imagine it being the Ba'athists.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2003-11-16 05:56pm

Durran Korr wrote:I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a new nasty political party coming into power. But I can't imagine it being the Ba'athists.

They won't give themselves the same name of course, but it will be the same people. Much as the Communist Party died in the USSR, but all of its higher-ups found themselves in the new non-Communist government. And the mullahs who controlled the Taliban no longer identify themselves as Taliban, but they're still influential in Afghanistan (and will eventually regain all of their old power under its new Islamic constitution).

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2003-11-16 06:00pm

In any case, all ex-Ba'athists are out. The only ones that would have a chance of being elected would be new candidates with a similar ideology.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2003-11-16 06:07pm

So I guess this means our impact will eventually be nullified as equilibrium is reached, likely for the worse as some are saying.

Andrew J. · Post by **Andrew J.** » 2003-11-16 06:07pm

A bright, sandy brown color, same as it always has.

Seriously, though, I'm not sure, but I don't think it will be good.

Montcalm · Post by **Montcalm** » 2003-11-16 06:08pm

Total civil war,every side will want to be in charge.

HemlockGrey · Post by **HemlockGrey** » 2003-11-16 06:16pm

A stable democratic government that is friendly to the United States, is the location of several important US military bases, and is a key ally in the Middle East that allows us to reduce our dependence upon highly controversial Israel while at the same time strengthening our influence in that region.

And look! I can fffffffffly!

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2003-11-16 06:17pm

Durran Korr wrote:In any case, all ex-Ba'athists are out. The only ones that would have a chance of being elected would be new candidates with a similar ideology.

who said anything about being elected? You need more lessons in political cynicism, young man.

The Baathists are mandarins; they will fill the bureaucracy, become the advisors, occupy the government. Everywhere below the topmost level of government, they will return. And they won't need to be elected.

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2003-11-16 06:21pm

Darth Wong wrote:
Durran Korr wrote:In any case, all ex-Ba'athists are out. The only ones that would have a chance of being elected would be new candidates with a similar ideology.
who said anything about being elected? You need more lessons in political cynicism, young man.

The Baathists are mandarins; they will fill the bureaucracy, become the advisors, occupy the government. Everywhere below the topmost level of government, they will return. And they won't need to be elected.

And they were not popular with the populace of Iraq. I don't think the people will tolerate their new government being filled with their former oppressors.

New oppressors, however...

Montcalm · Post by **Montcalm** » 2003-11-16 06:22pm

HemlockGrey wrote:A stable democratic government that is friendly to the United States, is the location of several important US military bases, and is a key ally in the Middle East that allows us to reduce our dependence upon highly controversial Israel while at the same time strengthening our influence in that region.

There are many so called friendly government in the middle east,ie Saudi Arabia but that does`nt mean much when some Saudi dipshit OBL and others like him want to kill all Americans.

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2003-11-16 06:26pm

Amazingly, we still consider Saudi Arabia a "staunch friend."

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2003-11-16 06:26pm

Iraq's constitution will undoubtedly be written to favor Islam, just like Afghanistan's was. I can't say I'm very confident in religious theocracy.

Admiral Valdemar · Post by **Admiral Valdemar** » 2003-11-16 06:27pm

Durran Korr wrote:Amazingly, we still consider Saudi Arabia a "staunch friend."

Because of what, I wonder.

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2003-11-16 06:30pm

Admiral Valdemar wrote:
Durran Korr wrote:Amazingly, we still consider Saudi Arabia a "staunch friend."
Because of what, I wonder.

Yeah, reality's a bitch.

PeZook · Post by **PeZook** » 2003-11-16 06:59pm

Durran Korr wrote:
And they were not popular with the populace of Iraq. I don't think the people will tolerate their new government being filled with their former oppressors.

I'm sorry, but...they will.

In the USSR, the opressive communist government killed millions of their own citizens, was slowly starving the rest to death, fed everyone anti-western scaremongering propaganda and intimidated them into being dull little obedient sheep with threat of violence.

Yet, they still have a communist party in their parliament, and former Party members are currently holding high positions in their government - elected, no less (Say, a certain former KGB operative named Vladimir)

In Poland, a slightly-less opressive communist government killed many of it's own citizens, was slowly starving the rest, fired at protesters REGULARLY, fed it's people anti-western scaremongering propaganda and intimidated them into being dull, obedient little sheep.

Yet, while Poland has delegalized communist parties, we still have former PZPR activists in our parliament, and the government is riddled with uncountable numbers of low-level postcommunist bureaucrats - again, mostly elected by the very people they helped opress, on higher or lower level.

In Iraq, an extremely opressive government regurarly slaughtered their own citizens, was slowly starving the rest to death (allright, this one's disputable. Western sanctions probably made the situation worse), fed them anti-western scaremongering propaganda and intimidated them into...do you see where I'm going?

Joe · Post by **Joe** » 2003-11-16 07:12pm

You're forcing me to choose between "filled with Ba'athists" and "devoid of Ba'athists." Of course some may slip through, but I don't see the government being effectively controlled by Ba'athists.

PeZook · Post by **PeZook** » 2003-11-16 07:26pm

Durran Korr wrote:You're forcing me to choose between "filled with Ba'athists" and "devoid of Ba'athists." Of course some may slip through, but I don't see the government being effectively controlled by Ba'athists.

Of course not. It will be effectivelly controlled by "moderate" Ba'athists, who will either deny ever being involved with the party, or claim to be forced to join for fear of opression - you're right that no high-level figures will be put in positions of power, like one of Saddam's closest aides. They will be tried and sentenced as an example whenever possible, to make the brand new government seem more people-minded.

The government will reform a bit, it will pay lip service to whatever new ideology put them in place (democracy in this case), but will retain a similar mentality as the former one. It's impossible to predict exactly how it will look, however.

Post by **Sea Skimmer** » 2003-11-16 08:00pm

Durandal wrote:Iraq's constitution will undoubtedly be written to favor Islam, just like Afghanistan's was. I can't say I'm very confident in religious theocracy.

Well secular government hasn't served them too well either.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2003-11-16 08:15pm

Sea Skimmer wrote:
Durandal wrote:Iraq's constitution will undoubtedly be written to favor Islam, just like Afghanistan's was. I can't say I'm very confident in religious theocracy.
Well secular government hasn't served them too well either.

A dictatorship doesn't serve anyone well, regardless of the underlying premise, be it secularism or theocracy.

Illuminatus Primus · Post by **Illuminatus Primus** » 2003-11-16 08:17pm

Durandal wrote:Iraq's constitution will undoubtedly be written to favor Islam, just like Afghanistan's was. I can't say I'm very confident in religious theocracy.

Why is this ok? Why is ok to write Nazism out of Germany and Emperor-worship out of Japan, but fanatical Islam, or even Islam infesting the temporal government--why is that ok?

Stormbringer · Post by **Stormbringer** » 2003-11-16 08:20pm

Illuminatus Primus wrote:
Durandal wrote:Iraq's constitution will undoubtedly be written to favor Islam, just like Afghanistan's was. I can't say I'm very confident in religious theocracy.
Why is this ok? Why is ok to write Nazism out of Germany and Emperor-worship out of Japan, but fanatical Islam, or even Islam infesting the temporal government--why is that ok?

Because "Islam is a religion of peace," right, right?

Seriously, it's because no one has the balls to tell the Islamic world that the fundamentalist garbage has to go. It's the weaked kneed PC garbage that no leader has the balls to take on.

Durandal · Post by **Durandal** » 2003-11-16 08:40pm

Precisely. Since so many in our government already perceive the United States as being a Christian Nation, they see nothing wrong with the creation of an Islamic Nation, even though that's exactly the thing that got us into this terrorist clusterfuck in the first place.

Since religion is inherently good, and Islam is a religion, it must therefore be the best means of governing a nation. And, realistically, the people of those countries aren't going to accept anything other than an Islamic government. They're not going to ratify a constitution if it forces them to separate their church and state, because that's the only way they know how to run a country. If we force them to adopt a constitution which separates church and state against their will, we'll be seen as hypocrites, since we wanted to install democracies in these countries, and the majority of the people will undoubtedly want Islamic rule.

Illuminatus Primus · Post by **Illuminatus Primus** » 2003-11-16 09:06pm

Who the fuck cares about fairness? Its an Appeal to Popularity. The Japanese and Germans soundly revoked their right to democracy and needed to be straight.

I don't see how Islamic Fundie Loons are any different.