China vs. Japan

Mlenk · Post by **Mlenk** » 2003-12-31 03:44pm

Today's China vs. Japan in an all out war. There can be no help from other nations. Both of them get 1 year of preparation. Who wins?

Oh and no use of nukes.

Straha · Post by **Straha** » 2003-12-31 03:49pm

Japan can't possibly control an invaded China, and China won't be able to take over Japan without massive casulties. In other words, China wins, but at a cost.

The Cleric · Post by **The Cleric** » 2003-12-31 04:10pm

China doesn't have the navy to suppport and invasion. Neither side wins.

The Aliens · Post by **The Aliens** » 2003-12-31 04:11pm

China wins through sheer manpower. They'll have one hell of a time taking voer the Home Islands, but China can firebomb it almost to the ground in less time than it would take Japan to do the same. Japan wouldn't be able to make any sort of reasonable inroads to China, and wouldn't be able to hold captured territory in face of thousands of enemy troops. China would be able to weather a non-nuclear first strike, and then hit back when the Japanese troop concentrations were low.

The Aliens · Post by **The Aliens** » 2003-12-31 04:12pm

StormTrooperTR889 wrote:China doesn't have the navy to suppport and invasion. Neither side wins.

They have a year of preparation time, if they focused all of their industry away from making sneakers and toys for America to boats and wepaons for their troops, they'd make a good go of it.

The Cleric · Post by **The Cleric** » 2003-12-31 04:16pm

But if Japan takes the same amount of time developing their air power, I still think it would be a draw.

Straha · Post by **Straha** » 2003-12-31 04:17pm

The Aliens wrote:
StormTrooperTR889 wrote:China doesn't have the navy to suppport and invasion. Neither side wins.
They have a year of preparation time, if they focused all of their industry away from making sneakers and toys for America to boats and wepaons for their troops, they'd make a good go of it.

Yeah, but Japan has one of the best navies in the world. Stalemate, with each side bombing the hell out of the other.

The Aliens · Post by **The Aliens** » 2003-12-31 04:22pm

The numerical advantage is completely massive though. Even if they're putting their people on rafts and sending them across with paddles, the Japanese won't be able to stop them all. Granted, they'll be impotent on when they finally do land, due to harsh terrain, but after a few months of heavy bombing on each side, Japan will be far worse off than China.

The Cleric · Post by **The Cleric** » 2003-12-31 04:24pm

Yes, but if all those Chinese are on rafts while the Japanese navy is sinking them, then their numerical advantage is moot. China cannot land significant troops on Japan, and Japan doesn't have the manpower to attack China.

The Aliens · Post by **The Aliens** » 2003-12-31 04:27pm

Conceded that the Chinese won't be able to make meaningful advances on Japanese territory until the Japanese navy is out of the way. But after, lets say, three months of carpet-bombing, China will be in trouble, but Japan will be completely decimated. China would win a war, even if tehy're unable to take Japan by a land invasion immedietly.

Kamakazie Sith · Post by **Kamakazie Sith** » 2003-12-31 05:01pm

The Aliens wrote:Conceded that the Chinese won't be able to make meaningful advances on Japanese territory until the Japanese navy is out of the way. But after, lets say, three months of carpet-bombing, China will be in trouble, but Japan will be completely decimated. China would win a war, even if tehy're unable to take Japan by a land invasion immedietly.

Why do you think China would be able to carpet bomb Japan? Chinese Air Force has very few top of the line planes.

The Aliens · Post by **The Aliens** » 2003-12-31 05:17pm

OP states they have a year to prepare. That's a more than adequate timeframe to build up an airforce, especially considering the available indutrial capacity.

The Cleric · Post by **The Cleric** » 2003-12-31 05:28pm

While Japan does the same thing. And would those aircraft have to be launched from carriers, or can they make it from the mainland?

The Aliens · Post by **The Aliens** » 2003-12-31 05:33pm

Japan's problem is amount of raw resources they can bring to bear. OP states that its without assistance from other countries, which I also took to mean trade. China has ample natural resources, whereas Japan doesn't. Chinese aircraft (at least longer range ones) can make it fomr the mainland, the problem is getting trained pilots. All of Japan is in rnage of China, but Japan can only hit so much. Pilots are another issue, China can put people in cockpits with basic training for much longer than Japan can. It'll come down to attrition, whoever can devote more troops will win, but it will be a long battle.

The Cleric · Post by **The Cleric** » 2003-12-31 05:36pm

How long do you expect the conflict to last? And what type of war is it?

The Aliens · Post by **The Aliens** » 2003-12-31 05:41pm

I'm going to say two or three years, or however long it takes for one side or the other to surrender. Once mnost of the industry of one side is gone it's going to start getting much worse for them, real quick.

I think it would be mostly a Battle of Britain type war, with the greatly outnumbered but much better Japanese planes and ships fighting a defensive war with the much poorer but larger Chinese. If the Chinese keep their attacks ot Radar installations, industrial targets, and airfields and shipyards, they should do fairly well.

The Cleric · Post by **The Cleric** » 2003-12-31 05:43pm

Is it a fight till win, or a fight till no longer feasible?

The Aliens · Post by **The Aliens** » 2003-12-31 05:47pm

Fight 'till no longer feasable, I tink. There's no real advatage to be gained by either side from taking and occupying the charred remains of the other country.

The Cleric · Post by **The Cleric** » 2003-12-31 05:51pm

Then Japan wins. China would decimate itself trying to beat Japan, to the point that neither country would be worth anything.

The Aliens · Post by **The Aliens** » 2003-12-31 05:54pm

If both countries are completely decimated, that makes a stalemate, correct? I was wrong about China winning, if the fight goes until no longer feasable then its a stalemate.

If for some reason they decided to go all or nothing, just for the sake of winning (pointless, I know) then China would win at horrendous cost.

Stravo · Post by **Stravo** » 2003-12-31 05:56pm

The Aliens wrote:Conceded that the Chinese won't be able to make meaningful advances on Japanese territory until the Japanese navy is out of the way. But after, lets say, three months of carpet-bombing, China will be in trouble, but Japan will be completely decimated. China would win a war, even if tehy're unable to take Japan by a land invasion immedietly.

Carpet bombing with WHAT?! China's airforce is a joke. Japan's is a modern airforce with AWACS and F-16's they will OWN the Chinese airforce.

The Aliens · Post by **The Aliens** » 2003-12-31 06:02pm

Yes, I know that they currently are garbage, but the OP states that they both have a year to prepare for war! As long as they have some aircraft plans, they can build thousands of them with a dedicated war manufacturing effort. Their industry outstrips Japan's in terms of quantity (granted, most of it goes into consumer products for America, not shipbuilding and high-tech), so they'd have a much more impressive military buldup. Even assuming Japan does smash the air force, they'd have a job taking and holding territory, because the Chinese Army can field a lot of men.

Stravo · Post by **Stravo** » 2003-12-31 06:06pm

The Aliens wrote:Yes, I know that they currently are garbage, but the OP states that they both have a year to prepare for war! As long as they have some aircraft plans, they can build thousands of them with a dedicated war manufacturing effort. Their industry outstrips Japan's in terms of quantity (granted, most of it goes into consumer products for America, not shipbuilding and high-tech), so they'd have a much more impressive military buldup. Even assuming Japan does smash the air force, they'd have a job taking and holding territory, because the Chinese Army can field a lot of men.

You can't build up a modern airforce and train pilots in a single year. And Japan has a year as well. The gap is just too large quantatively in both equipment and pilots to bridge and frankly China's massive numbers advantage doesn't strike me as too decisive in this scenario as they would have to get troops on the ground to make any difference and Japan's navy will sink anything that comes its way.

You cannot make the massive gaps in quality, numbers and equipment go away in a year.

This scenario degenerates into a battle of Britain like scenario with Chinese air raids over Japannese territory. They would be begging for a slaughter of epic proportions if they put to sea.

Mlenk · Post by **Mlenk** » 2003-12-31 06:14pm

All right so what would happen if outside assistance is allowed but in the form of trade and resource help but no military aid? Would Japan, if they changed their constitution, be able in a year's time be able to build an army and a navy comparable to the kind they had in WW2, or at least one capable of actually invading China?

Do the Japanese have the know how to be able to build nuclear weapons in a year? As far as I know they don't have nukes, right?

The Aliens · Post by **The Aliens** » 2003-12-31 06:15pm

They don't need to be well-trained pilots, just able to do the job. If they outnumber Japan more than 3 to 1, attrition will take over. I concede that there's no way for China to land more than a few thousand troops in Japan, where they'd be promptly wiped out, and maintain that it would be a Battle of Britain type scenario with the Japanese being slowly ground down by China. There would be no successful land invasion on either side, and the war would last a few years until both sides decieded it wasn't worth it any more.